Transcription
Today's number, guys, is four. As what we've just witnessed in markets has happened several times before, and we need to talk about it both from an investor and trader perspective. Yes, there's several key markets that are freaking out and several markets that are starting to find huge bids. But maybe the biggest question comes back to leverage and what we're seeing happening in the bonds market. We've got a special update today, so don't go anywhere as we cover some of the biggest stocks in the world, commodities, and cryptos. See you soon. Going to be a good one.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and as always, we'll be covering the latest macro, the data, and of course, what has Wall Street been up to. We've also got some big updates when it comes to cash holdings and CTAs. So let's get into it straight away with the big story of the day which I think in many ways is this one and it's where that today's number comes from which is from Subaru trade and it has to do with massive positional shorts back on Friday. Now we already knew that we had a huge amount of puts and a huge amount of activity towards the short side in markets. What we didn't know at that point is we're getting a read that we've seen similarly with some of the most important levels and we've had it during the co bottom, the 2022 bare market with the initial pullup and of course the October lows as well. A massive billion dollar plus position in a three times levered short area in the markets which is of course S&P short ETF.
Now, this is pretty important because when everyone starts to panic really, really quickly, especially when they go hard, it does tend to have that countering effect. And when this tends to happen at correlation points, it's of course incredibly important to us because, as you guys know, finding more reasons that all stack together to find a bid, then we get a bid. It is quite convincing.
Now, it's not all good news because one of the biggest problems right now has to do with the overall cash allocations to markets and of course leverage in general. We've already talked about how December is the number one month of the year for inflows and does tend to have a very good bullish statistic with it. And if you can believe it, we're only about a week away from that point right now. Oh man, I can't believe how fast this year's gone. But then again, I did survey some of you guys which came to our Brisbane seminar early in the year and you all told me even though it was only 6 months apart that it was over a year since you'd been to it. So if you guys in the comments down below thought this year has gone slowly or quick. I feel like the start went slowly, the back half has gone very quickly.
3.7 anyway for this Bank of America survey is a big deal because when we get this low guys, it actually is historically not the best for markets. And while I think that this time could go a little bit more extreme, this is actually the first read in 15 years that we've seen at these lows. And it tells me that there's something wrong in this market. And what it is is it's leverage. And it is a huge amount of leverage coming in. Three times levered funds have gone ballistic recently and every buy the dip, which you're about to see in a moment, has been allocated to huge buying positions, mostly levered up.
Now, this has actually been a very ordinary or kind of orderly style pullback so far. And if it does continue to do this and of course make a series of higher highs, which we have some excellent charts to share later on on, then it is pretty much exactly what you'd expect at this time of year. Remember in our last video, we talked about the Zade Brett thrust and we talked about when we get to this level that is 7 months basically bullish, which is pretty expected. We tend to see sideways action followed by actually rallies. That's the general rule for one of the best reads in the world when it comes to breadth.
We've also seen huge amounts of differing opinions based on volume. Why do we know this? Well, you can see here SPY and of course also Q equities, that's NASDAQ equities, ended up seeing massive volume spikes that are synonymous with often at least temporary lows. And that happened as of last Friday, which since then, of course, what have we seen was actually last Thursday on this one. Since that, we've actually had a decent amount of rally. So, it does show that there's two sides to the tape. One side is freaking out and the other side is prepared to go in. But it seems like they're prepared to go in with a decent amount of leverage. According to the latest Bank of America report, we've also seen four-week average flows for tech get absolutely mauled, which has shown up of course in certain tech stocks. Meta fell off big hard. Obviously, Nvidia's come down since those points. And really, the only good one has been pretty much Google, which has gone absolutely ballistic. And we've got more on that in a moment because that stock is starting to get a little bit carried away. And while it was our favorite stock of the year, it yeah, it's done pretty well. So, I'll give you a clap for that, guys. But you're about to see very soon why it might be getting a little bit carried away.
Goldman Sachs CTA estimates also have some problem signs on the horizon. In fact, in all situations, it looks like they will be selling. A flat tape, they're going to be selling an uptape. They're going to be selling. And of course if the markets do go back to a negative gamma that is effectively they start falling very quickly guys then they could start to get a little bit melted away. So a key level to watch and I think probably one of the most important levels you can put on your chart really simple one weekly 20 moving average S&P put that on your chart. If that level gets taken out then we may have some problems to talk about. This chart probably shows why we may have some problems to talk about.
Now by the dips are both good and bad. And what I mean by that is when they're going with leverage, we've seen this year that they're really good um Callum Thomas here with this good chart from top down charts where they're really good. You can see here when they're down the lows and they're not so good when they go into consolidation. So I think the way that the market structures up coming into the end of the year and remember we are still bullish on these markets coming into the end of the year because of all the things that we've talked about in the last couple of videos. If it's your first time here, go check a couple of those out. You'll see what I mean. And we're going to proof some of this in a moment, but this is still a problem. Leveraged equities, debts, these types of things are coming in. And what Wall Street's been doing secretly underneath the hood, not maybe secret to you guys, is that they've been rotating out of some of the bigger tech stocks, particularly discretionary stocks, and they've been going into healthcare, biotech, oil services, utilities. Now, you may notice something about some of these names. They are defensive stocks, a lot of them. And this shows you that the market is starting to look more and more like it's more late cycle and more and more that we need to pay attention to how the next 3 to 6 months look in terms of structure because as you know when we get a Fed rate cut the structure matters. We used this last year to discern that we were probably going to continue to go bullish. If we start to see more and more defensive action more and more smaller sectors really show the gains then that's showing us actually a problem sign. Yes. when the big leaders stop leading that is actually a problem in these markets.
Now Grant Hawkidge always has great charts guys. This one here is on breadth. You can kind of have a pause here on the video. The main thing to get away from this or get into you know understanding here is that the market itself did show some really good signs of breadth over the last 24 hours. And in particular you can see here that moving average heat map is slightly improved although it was starting to look a little bit sick. And I think this is a very important chart here. One day ago, 447 stocks were up and 55 were down. So that's of course good breadth on what has been pretty bad breadth over the last week. So if we continue to see thrusts followed by price action making higher highs to certain levels that we'll talk about, that is a great sign for market. So of course that's a big sticking point.
Now you can see here a chart from Allstar Charts. Pretty good one here. I do love moving averages and as you guys know, most of the big guys use them. We use them. We love the 200 as well. It's one of my favorite reads, which is percentage away from the 200. We use it all the time on S&P and single stocks. And uh yeah, I just think it's a cool visual here. So, what we've got is we've got a market where basically old Google has done very, very nicely. And what it's done is it's found so much strength. It's gone ballistic. It's moved away from its 200E moving average at such a fast pace that maybe it needs to have a little bit of a sleep for now. And you can also argue that this could be pretty much most of its gains being done. And I think I'd tend to agree with that. It's come back to fair value. If you've been watching the channel all year, you'll know this is one of the stocks that we highlighted as being completely underpriced because of, in my opinion, clean data. And that's one of the biggest things here. It's clean data that needs to be paid attention to. So, uh, why is Google doing well? Well, they could be a massive winner. They've introduced of course their AI chat bots into their own search engine. Even personally, I'm using it more. So I think like there is a huge amount of goodness in Google. But at the same time, the bulk share of the gains are most likely had. So what we expect from that stock is more volatility to start coming in and for it to start to consolidate very soon. Will it happen? Hey, it's just the statistics.
Let's have a look now at some of the other bad signs in markets. And these are cautionary tales leading into 2026 more than anything else. Index spreads and tech spreads. For the first time pretty much in a decade plus, we started to see people worry about tech stocks. That is that the debts in tech stocks didn't look as attractive to the rest of the market. And that is important because that shows a change in the air in the bonds market. And of course, we want to be paying attention to bonds because we've started to see some shakiness. And a lot of you guys are screaming at me, Tom, JP30 wise, what's going on with the carry trade? The carry trade is going to explode. Everything's going to explode. That is a very interesting talk topic and we'll talk about it more. But realistically, the main thing that you've got to be thinking about is the US markets particularly. And of course, we're always looking at these private credit uh spreads in particular because that tends to be where the biggest problem is. So remember, private credit, that's the one.
Now, let's have a look at number of days above the 50-day moving average. You guys can see here that we've had 138 days above. You can see that that is pretty good for buy the dip style situations, especially the weekly 20 moving average because in similar reads here from the market stats, 100% of the time markets were up after. And this is because when you look at the structure here from Blue Curtic, it looks pretty good. So, we've argued kind of we might have gone down a little bit more. We actually went down about 2% more from this point. Then in all occasions all the way back to the 1950s with similar strength reads, we ended up finding strength for quite a while. And then we found some very different looking markets. So I think this is a great read and I really enjoy this one. I think we're going to need to come back to this several times over over the next coming months into next year. So I'm pretty sure there's going to be some interesting stuff here. Now the NASDAQ wasn't as clear. Sometimes it would pull back more, but in general, all markets led to being positive over that next little period. And I think that's important to note when you're talking about the big kahuna short, you know, that GFC style short that may be coming in over the next year or two. And um yeah, of course, I've got concerns over the markets right now. This chart certainly marking one of those concerns.
But as you guys know, one of the biggest things here is it's all about understanding that there is a kind of leadership here that's getting more and more concentrated. And in my belief, it's it's due to many reasons, but it's also due to ETFs. What we're seeing is a rise of ETFs. Everyone's investing in those. They are all buying macro cap um massive cap stocks and you're getting a huge huge amount of top 10 funds. The private equity space is falling off. So, of course, keep an eye on that one. It's going to be important.
Speaking of things falling off, gold price and overall sentiment is negative now. How the times change. Yeah, guys, exactly what we thought. Everyone lining up in the streets trying to buy bullion. People snapshotting their buys of Costco and getting their little bit of a deal under spot and all those types of things. Some hilarious stuff going on here of course in the gold markets. And I think the big thing is that this is just what we expected, which is a one to two month sideways action after getting crushed because of course the markets move too quickly. Now, is this good? It's actually historically not a bad read for the market starting to find base formation. And of course, we will be watching gold. We'll look at it a little bit later on today. It did have a pretty good last 24 hours.
Now, let's move over to Crypto Gold. I was at the CryptoCon this weekend, which you got or last weekend now. And I guess you guys have heard my thoughts on it straight away. No one was really that scared, which probably just shows I was talking to too many veterans. But either way, it was a great great event and um yeah, I really look forward to catching up with more of you guys at these events because it's always fun. But let's have a look here at ETF flow. So there was some signs of life on Friday. Now we suspected that because of course what happened we liquidated the position and let me know in the comments down below. I know like you know we are predominantly stock, bonds, cryptos, commodities, everything. We cover everything. But I am enjoying doing a little bit of this Bitcoin at the moment because I think it's such an interesting market. Let me know if you are as well though. They're all connected remember. So there's importance here and this is going to be a big story. So 21st we can see here some flows start to come in. The big Gahuna fund I bit did see still negative flows and we've started to get some information from the 24th and it looks like if I had to guess I think it's going to be a positive flow day. So, we are starting to see a bid. Now, it's not enough to get it out of the woodworks yet, but let's have a look at some Bitcoin swing analysis here from Nautilus Research. And what they found is that that when Bitcoin went down 20% without a 20% rally from 26 week highs, then uh yeah, it was a bit all over the place. And I think what you can kind of get here is that there is a real tale of two stories. There are bullish cases and significant bearish cases. And especially over the next one month, things can still be very wild. So, it's not all green here and all good. Uh there are several stories, including the evolving MSTR saga, that need to be discussed, and when we've got more time, we'll cover that as well. I'm still reading into it, but I think the general gist is it nothing really occurs until next year. So, it's going to be one of those ones people forget about a bit that comes back and then and then it could get really nasty.
average purchase point cost of all uh 10 spot Bitcoin ETF flows. You guys can see here we're underneath. We went underneath what the average person's buy price is. That's going to trigger tons of stop-losses, tons of break-even positions. Great one here from Jim Biano. Really like it. Um nice one, Jim. So, follow him over on X. And another one here from Michael Green over on X. And this is a net cost versus value of Bitcoin ETF holdings. You can see clearly that we've come down uh quite a lot in terms of the net cost. And again, it doesn't matter which one you're looking at. What that's telling you is you're getting closer to break-even and liquidating those positions. And over the last video, we talked about how it was the second fastest and hardest liquidation of small positions ever. So, of course, that does help to form base because yeah, the market loves liquidating. Now, this is an older chart now, but Wales did start to purchase in as we saw about 88K. So, we're back to around that price now. And of course, daily sentiment is in the dirt when it comes to crypto.
Let's now jump into the S&P, then we'll look at the options flow, then we'll look at the lead charts and some other stuff. And starting off here with the S&P, you guys can see here that we have a pretty significant basing structure. S&P hit their weekly 20 moving average. You know, I love that. Uh it also hit an anchored VWAP. It also hit a put wall. It hit so many things. Um I guess you know to me it was a pretty good one and we've rallied so far and we're obviously coming up to a big decision point because we're coming up to 6800. Here are the options high lows for the day. I know a lot of you guys like that. But I think there are a couple of other things I want to mention.
So let's look at the US 2K. So the 2K actually here hit a new high. So you can see here the Russell actually broke through to a new high after getting a pretty good dip. And if you look at the Russell on the weekly 20, you'll notice as well it spiked once, spiked twice, then spiked three times with a big bullish hammer. So you've got to like what you see here from the Russell and it is kind of a first sign of the overall markets starting to improve. And that is a good sign because of course it is kind of what you expect. You expect a bid here. that 50-day moving average is a very good stat, which is why I keep bringing it up. And we've also got uh yes, some scary signs on the macro side, especially with cash holdings and stuff, but the one thing is that there's still a lot of demand to lever in. So, I think all of that's on the side burner until it becomes a blowout problem. And you've got to remember if you're on the bearish side right now, there's a big issue there. So, you're not wrong. It's just when does it trigger? And remember, timing is everything. Little bit of outperformance last two sessions on Russell which does bode well for that break high as well on the Russell 2000. So again things starting to look quite good on the bid. Next 24 hours markets could still rise higher. So it looks like they're going to be trying to pinpoint that 6750 which they're not quite trading at. Obviously 6,800 is going to be key as well as we know that's a big technical level. Uh but yeah, 6750 seems to be kind of the magnet at this stage.
And Tesla had a really good 24 hours. So it found support at that 380. So congrats if you had a go at that. Obviously this 385 is a very solid level as well. If it was broken down though would have got brutal quick. So that's good. And it looks like we could be forming a double bottom base. So we'll look at that on the charts in a second. What about Nvidia? It's still pretty boring on the options. So, I almost cut it today because I was like, I can't be bothered with uh covering something that's useless. But yeah, look, we've got 200 calls and no real updates there. So, we'll skim over that one. And IBIT was, I think, a good read. So, remember, we suspected that we need to get above 49 on IBIT because there's too much money sitting there. Big put wall, big amount of options. You can see the freakout amount of puts. So that helps to form a base this week to structure up on uh for Bitcoin. So again, some good signs coming in for Bitcoin liquidations, all the type of things that create max fear. It is happening.
Let's now go over to the lead indicators when it comes to what's going on here with the bonds market. And the bonds market is still at high. So it that is spreads are starting to widen out. There's definitely concerns here. And I think that one of the things that we need to be watching is this chart and charts like this we will the VIX has got crushed down which is no surprise. This is exactly what you'd pretty much expect. VIX getting crushed is totally normal. So uh that is fine. And because we hit 28 that's actually a good sign for market reversal as well because remember it's that one where you hit the 24 to 25 then come back down. That's actually the worst VIX to hit.
Another chart I've started looking at recently is also treasuries versus gold price. And you might say, "What the hell are you doing here?" Well, I'm interested because it's been such a downward trend. Like obviously, especially since 22 when it broke this new low, it's just been gold outperforming treasuries big time. If that changes, could be a good chart to watch. So, if you ever see it change and I'm missing it for whatever reason, you know, we need to set alerts for this type of ratio here, uh, then definitely message me on Twitter or X or whatever it's called now because, uh, this is actually going to be a very interesting chart. Remember a change in preference of flow is a really important thing that we want to be watching.
Semiconductors has spiked up. That's good because semiconductors is of course the lifeblood of this market. The market can't really go up without that. Has it changed a trend? No. Uh it hasn't even managed to break above 0.52 yet. But certainly a good first sign. And yeah, I mean it's okay. If you bought semis, well done. But I think mainly I would have been going into some of the bigger tech stocks because a lot of those actually did have better bases and some of them did pretty well. I mean Google had a massive day yesterday um at 6% but you also have some pretty good gains in in the overall at Meta off that gap. That's a pretty interesting stock at where it is and there of course have been some other ones that are starting to look pretty tasty.
Dollar index is at equilibrium. It still is in an upward trend on the small time frames and mediums. So obviously we're looking more for the rally. A lot of people writing articles about this at the moment which I think is interesting break high. So that is breakthrough of 140 would be key. So we get above that we could be moving quite strong for the dollar. And again that's against the press. So it's usually pretty good.
Now congratulations if you held gold guys. Well done to you. Hell yeah. This is a special out of the day trading masterclass. If you know you know and yeah fxevolution.com Black Friday sale on right now guys. So, one of the things about this is it is actually a repeatable bull setup. Now, it's broken even at this stage. 4200 obviously is your target and it is a good recovery. So, uh look, is it a is it a good entry? Hey, it's repeatable. There were plenty of the thing is the interesting thing is gold has gone up, dollar has held and Bitcoin's gone up against the dollar. So, you can kind of see here that there's again even if you're looking at another chart cross analysis, you got to be careful. Sometimes repeating is repeating and if it feels kind of nasty and it's repeatable then it's usually a pretty good one. So has gold got out of the worries yet? Too early to tell that but it is still of course base formation which is good and we'll keep updating you guys through the week. Silver is something similar but definitely the worst trade. And what I mean by that is it took a lower low and it just doesn't have as good a TA on it in terms of repeatability. But again it's doing exactly what we expect. Sells off one to two months sitting and hopefully we keep going bullish. We have not uh gone bearish on these pairs. We just think they must consolidate.
Oil services thought I'd bring up this one. Nice little bounce over the last two sessions. Obviously barrels, nothing going on there yet, but not even close to breaking through that 63 high. So barrels boring oil stocks and oil services a little bit more fun. Tesla, what's going on? Double bottom base potential. Not through it yet. 425 plus could get some uh positive gamma. We'll see how this flow happens over the next 24 hours. And the old German DAX no break low but interestingly weakness here. So look at this. Didn't break 235 which you would have expected it to do because that's what I expected to happen with the US 2K. Still could be a canary. So this is a Canary style market. We're definitely watching. Very important point here for the German DAX. So guys, uh don't uh stop looking at that one. We definitely need to watch that.
What about the Chinese markets? Very strong rebound. Nice at resistance at this point. But I think overall very strong. You know, I'm going to say I'm macro long because of liquidity. So I am macro long because of liquidity. That's how I feel about that market sometimes. But yeah, definitely a nice bounce and not too bad there.
Semiconductors and NASDAQ. Okay. Still got the alert at 350 for the semis. And the NASDAQ itself bounced off the weekly 20 which obviously is strong. And you can see here that it's going to fight around 25,000 maybe 280. So that higher high I think is a big deal to breaching what is currently still a series of lower lows and lower highs. So do remember the trends other than maybe the Russell which has improved a little bit is still technically down but I can see bid here. We can see lever here. The problems are the CTAs. I don't bring it up as much anymore because the edge there is less. Uh but the overall good sign is that a lot of people whacked in huge puts on that weekly 20 which can form base. Um and I think that's a great that's a great sign for markets.
Onto the cryptos for a second. Ethereum did bounce a little bit but you can see it's a bit you know not not so good. I will say no one still want to talk about anything but Bitcoin. So it seems to be Bitcoin or bust in the crypto world at the moment. And we do have where is it here? the daily 20 moving average. So to breach this is probably the big key. Look at this the 20. Now this is also the most traded zone or one of them on the way down. So you can clearly see that this level is going to be key. 3120ish and of course on Bitcoin itself.
So if we go over here to Bitcoin, we can see here that the market is uh bouncing. It's come back to kind of like the trend line on the log scale and we need a break about a 93,000. Now I do like an 88,000 break. Don't get me wrong. That's good. But you'll notice why I'm going to say that 90 plus,000 because it's going to intersect with the daily 20. And you can see again it's a super key zone. So very very very much uh this is what I'm looking at. I'm I'm very focused on this chart cuz I am enjoying it and it's mostly just because I like like I'm sure you guys do.
Bit of a challenge out there in the old uh the old world of data and macro. Uh, in terms of Google, it's been a great run, but I just wanted to let you know of course, the way we got into it initially was we thought flag and I took this as the pole length. Um, you could take the longer one, but I took this one. Now, there are two thoughts processes. Obviously, break here, break here. Who cares? The main thing is it's starting to get up there. And remember, percentage away from the 200 is high. So, this one here, I do tend to agree with allstar charts there. I love that type of read. I've loved it for a decade plus, used it several times over. it generally means that the vast majority of the gains have been had. Now, sometimes markets will go and blitz it, but my experience has been it's been a great run. It's back to fair value, even maybe a bit higher than that. And that whole Warren Buffett thing proved it over. That means that everyone started going a little crazy on it recently.
Now, if you are interested in finding out more about our repeatable processes, day trading masterclass, advanced masterclass, that'll blow your mind for sure and you'll think, why didn't I know this earlier? We do of course have a Black Friday deal. Make sure to check out the pin comment down below if you're interested. Also, uh update. I've got new updates coming for the newsletter and of course uh follow me on LinkedIn, Thomas Atinson, and then check out our X as well. I post there several of the charts that you find this video. It's great to have you here. If you're new, sub, alert button, all those good things. Thank you so much, guys, and we'll see you in the next one.
And do remember as well just in terms of quick note here, there's meant to be a little bit of uh action going on maybe on Tuesday. We didn't really talk about the JP uh bond yields too much. I will talk about it more next 24 hours. I know a lot of you are focused on it, but we got PPI at 8:30. It could cause a breakout, but again, like last time I said there's probably not the reason for a mega crash. So if we do end up getting a dip off it, I'm probably still going to remain relatively bullish on it. And this is of course a long weekend. So of course uh Thanksgiving in America, they do tend to be bullish weeks. Thanks very much.