Transcription
Today's number, guys, is 6,800. A put level that could go either way, creating a massive bounce or even waterfall style cascade sell in markets. As big tech stocks continue to weaken, which is something we've been talking about here all year and 2026 now is negative. What exactly is going on? Gold's going to all-time highs. Bitcoin is crashing. And there's a lot to talk about in stocks, commodities, and cryptos. Join us as we cover everything you need to know right now about markets. Don't go anywhere. This is going to be a big one.
Welcome back everybody to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and of course in today's video we'll be going through the macro, the data, and what you need to know about markets right now, including some huge moves that have happened over the last couple of sessions. We started off with seeing big tech stocks falling and that will come as no surprise to anybody that's been watching the channel for a while. But we've also got some of the big guns coming out now including Ray Dio and Michael Bur saying that they are cautious on the US economy and they believe a crash could be around the corner with Michael Barry saying that AI and data centers are getting ahead of themselves and of course the market's already possibly spotting those. But Ray Dio now signing off on the idea of maybe going towards bonds and maybe some credit problems in the future.
Now, this will come as nothing new to anyone that's been watching the markets for the last kind of decades, but you would know that the most important thing to do is what is actually happening underneath the hood, not what necessarily they're saying. And that's why we always look at things such as investment grade credit spreads, bond markets, and of course, price action flow on this channel. If you're new here, make sure to subscribe for that as well because it is going to be very important here in 2026.
So, you can see guys that we are below 100 basis points here in investment grade credit spreads. And that basically means that the market is still relatively calm. Even though the news and the press and everything else is going chaotic in 2026, markets don't seem to be struggling just yet when it comes to the normal problems that we see in a sell-off. And that's good news if you're looking at the overall breadth rotation and potentially past the next couple of weeks. But if that starts to spike back up just like this, we could have problems.
In terms of large darkpool activity, we did see a couple of big ones here courtesy of volume leaders. And one of them was on two times long VIX futures, which just got the third largest darkpool print coming in over the last 24 hours. And this could mark potentially someone actually selling out of their volatility or even just getting started. So just remember it is a large transaction. It's on the VIX and we'll have to spot that over the next session.
So what exactly is going on right now? Well, I think Jurian Timmer really kind of has nailed it recently with his overall concepts of maybe 98 versus now narrative. So that is the dot bubble versus the 2026 relative run so far on markets. And if you actually do the overlay of 98 into 2025 into 26, you'll actually notice that this is kind of what we're expecting this year, the possibility of up, down, and all around. And if you know your stats about midterm election years, you may know that it's pretty common to see this type of transaction stuff go on. And it's very real the threat of maybe two potential sell-offs that could happen. And we've got more about that coming up in the special very soon.
Let's now take a look at Apple and see what's going on here. And you can see pretty clearly that we already do have some fairly large moves coming in on the markets. Apple actually sold off considerably, but it has been for days and days and days. And Subu Trade actually put out this interesting report that says that when Apple goes to an extreme low, that is below the 20 on the RSI, that a few days later it is usually positive. And this marks a good point here for the Magnificent 7, which we'll be looking at later on because so far it has been weakness, weakness, weakness for months and months and months actually on the Magnificent 7. And we've been spotting it here, but I think a lot of people hadn't actually seen it.
So, you can see here that Magnificent 7 versus IWM broke an important trend line that's been holding up for a couple of years. And we also lost a head and shoulders here with Magnificent 7 versus SPY actually breaking below the neckline, which I think is a pretty key point here. So, you know, something that we'll be paying a lot of attention to when it comes into markets. Left shoulder, head, right shoulder. Could we be going all the way down to something around a 91 091 ratio? If that's to happen, we may actually be going a little lower here on Markets First.
So, why is this happening? Why are we actually moving down? Well, of course, there's the press stuff. There's no doubt chaos going on in the markets when you're looking at the top end level in terms of the news, but also we've seen a lot of US equity fund flow specifically from investors and retail traders. There's actually just been going into large blend stocks. So, what has actually been happening? Well, the flow has been broadening. So actually most people in terms of the biggest in then traders have been going to the smaller sectors materials metals things that we've talked about here on the channel and that's actually led on to some pretty big moves. So why could they be maybe pushing the Magnificent 7 around? Well, it just so happens that a lot of maybe you would say dumb money inverted commas has been flowing into it and there is a lot to gain from Wall Street and of course options flow there.
Some good news before we go into maybe a couple of the bad bits is of course the S&P 500 has generally been doing pretty well and if you actually take the toy barometer which generally is a really good read here from Wayne why whe trades broken it down it does tend to mean that dips are usually purchased and you can see there the stats over the next 9 months can be quite positive indeed. Percentage of New York Stock Exchange stocks above the 200 day moving average has also increased, which is really good and EPS coming in from last year was still positive overall.
So this all kind of leads into this earning season. We just saw Netflix come through with maybe a little bit lackluster. So it dropped in after hours and of course we have Intel kicking off some more tech later on this week. But really most of earnings is going to be about next week guys and that's when we start to really get into the big tech stocks. So, make sure to sub to the channel because this is where we'll do a deep dive into what's going on, especially on the weekend video.
So, this has hit most markets. If you're in gold, if you're in silver, if you're in some of the precious metals, they're actually doing pretty well. But Bitcoin actually dropped below 90,000, liquidating some pretty big orders. According to Whale Watcher and a few other places, I think $190 million was liquidated in the crypto markets over 60 minutes. Now, it hasn't actually taken out a very important zone. we'll talk about later on this video. But it does just go to show that Bitcoin is trading more like a risk on riskoff asset, very similar to the NASDAQ versus of course gold, which is trading like a capital war style investment, which obviously means that what we've suspected now for quite a few years is partly why we like that asset class at this stage because this is kind of chaos when you're looking at the news.
Now, we do like to look at flows and we noticed that the put call ratio was starting to go a little bit low which basically meant people were getting a little bit complacent and bullish and this is similar to what we've seen in bonds recently. And we put this in our last two videos which basically shows here that 4 days later it is not expected that the market would be bullish either way. And I think it's really important to also note that our bullish percent index indicator here from Seth Golden Share over on X has been soy overbought. So basically this is time or has been time where the market is complacent. It's a little bit too bullish, a little bit too many people going, "Hey, this is fantastic. You've got to bring the volatility back in." And this was expected because again after Martin Luther King Jr. Day, we do tend to see a little bit of weakness here in markets. And we also do tend to see seasonal weakness here from the Almanac trader at the end of January.
So is that really all it is in markets? Well, let's now take a look at the S&P. First up, it gapped down and you can see here it came straight to that 6,800 zone and held around that level. Now, at the time of recording, we're slightly above 6,800. And I think it's important to note that this market is still making generally series of higher highs and higher lows. You might say, "Well, Tom, that's a lower low. Take a look at that one. It's a little bit of weakness. There's no doubt. It's the most we've seen in quite some time, but it's still not through the major levels of things like 6550." So, it's not time to panic yet on markets.
US 500 options high low data you can see here and obviously market sitting at 68 and that's the important level because take a look here at the putless zones on this market 6,800 comes up quite a lot large amounts of puts here for the 21st of January then we've got even larger puts here coming in upwards of 6700 as well for the 22nd of January. So again, a lot of puts and if these levels are broken, let's say we go through 6,800, you got to kind of think, okay, we're going down to 6,700 at that point. And then if we go through 6700, well, it could create what we call a cascade or waterfall effect.
So is that showing up in other stocks? Well, Tesla did get below 430, which is of course quite negative for the stock. And that's suggesting that we might be going as low as possibly into the 400s for it. But again, you can see the put walls here. They're all clumping up. Everyone's so quick to get on the put walls, to get in the put side, uh, that everyone's basically jumping on board. So, all the way down to 400 each $10 marker seems to be relatively strong potentially for a bid there from Tesla.
When it comes to Nvidia, it's actually holding okay. It's just underneath 180, which is right around where you see the puts. And when it comes to IBIT, so probably the most important read we've got here for crypto, we did end up dropping back to that 50, which we know is a very big put wall. And that actually does correspond pretty well with charts as well, which we'll see in a moment. So, some big stuff going on there.
What about gold? Well, you can see here that gold has been doing all right. 435, we've just kind of gone past the core wall, creating positive gamma. People are freaking out in gold. People are freaking out in silver, and they just keep pushing it higher and higher and higher. And there's a possibility that SLV might actually go to 90, which would maybe mean the actual spot goes to 100. So because it gold and silver both took out the highs because we've got geopolitical tension and all sorts of things going wild here in the press. This is certainly what's benefiting from all of that.
So let's now have a look at the charts. We'll start off here with actually the magnificent 7 versus IWM and that was another decline day. So this wasn't a broadbased sell-off. It was a sell-off of tech stocks and a sell-off of very specific areas. You can see here if we load up the Russell for a second, take a look at that drop. Very little dropping there, guys, on the market. So, almost nothing going on in the Russell.
Gold absolutely skyrocketed after taking out that high. We suspected that if that happened, it would squeeze. And we're getting closer to, if you can believe it, 4,900. And then, of course, silver also squeezing a little bit above 9390, also showing that kind of geopolitical tension style hedge. as we are now heading into what is most likely going to be a long stage currency kind of war which we've been talking about for a long time between bricks, swift and all sorts of other things. Be careful out there guys. I think it's going to get quite unstable especially when it comes to things like the US dollar which we've got to watch specifically at those large trend line levels that we've bought up several times on the channel. So make sure to watch for that.
So where does it put us? Well, there are some things that could potentially do a bit better out of all of this kind of calamity. One of them is that US oil or UK oil has been holding that 2050 and you can see here it's starting to put a little bit of bullish action into itself with breakups here on $60 a barrel which is kind of strong. Um, and you can also see here that we've got the hanging as well starting to, you know, kind of consolidate a little bit after other markets have gone down. Now, the hanging hasn't broken through 27,500 yet, but if that happens, that could be kind of bullish for it. And it's a stark difference to what we're about to see here in some of the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Tesla underneath that 430. There's no real pressure here to buy it until pretty much down in 400. So, we'll see what happens there with the puts, but just goes to show again if we'd pushed through 460, I think we would have taken positive gamma and the stock would have done quite a lot better. Nvidia still technically holding the double bottom. So, we'll see how that goes. And really on this one, you're looking at things like semiconductors spy. Have we lost semiconductors? No. So, is this the most important indicator or bell weather for the US market? Yes. And it's still holding itself versus the spy. This is really just a sell-off of Magnificent 7 stocks. And I think probably the stock that makes that most clear is things like Apple.
You can see here we've got a technical demand zone or support zone that got hit over the last 24 hours. It hit it. Could it bounce off this level? That's going to be really the million-dollar question here. And I guess the thing is that we've got crosses of 2050. We've got obviously a declining market, but will we actually see some pick up here? This is going to be kind of one of the zones that I'm watching. Another one to look at is going to be Amazon as well. You can see here it's dropped recently. We've seen Microsoft also drop off a cliff in recent times. This is nothing new if you've been watching the biggest tech stocks. But really the main thing that happens here is if the Magnificent 7 doesn't improve and you can see the key support here. If we lose this level, what's going to happen? Well, the market is probably going to continue to go down in terms of the index because why? Well, this is too much of the index. It's about 38% of the index, you know, in 10 stocks. So, once you start thinking about it, this is a good bell weather. Are we at support? You can kind of see how there's some correlation here. 6,800 on the S&P, Magnificent 7 hit support, Apple hit support. Even Netflix after hours, I think it was down about five. Correct me if I'm wrong there. We'll have more coverage on the other stocks. And that puts support. So, there's a bit of support here surprisingly as everyone of course freaks out around the world.
Now, what about Bitcoin? Well, it took out 90. It came down into the 88 86 range. And you can see here, this is a very interesting level for the markets. Um, so obviously a zone here we want to be paying a lot of attention to. And it's also an interesting zone here on Ethereum. So, clearly there's some there's some correlation there. So, we're starting to get, you know, signs of, okay, gold's going to do its own thing, so silver. But the stock market did just hit a brick wall. If we go through this brick wall, things could get, of course, a lot worse pretty quickly. But I don't think we're going to lose structure on the S&P until at least 6,500. So, for now, you know, that the bonds market's not freaking out. You know, I don't know why anyone really should unless you, you know, feel like you're getting bombarded by too much news.
As we often say on this channel, if it's in the press, it's in the price. And the most important thing is always to assume that the market has a decent amount of information and it's going to generally end up making the decision which it believes is kind of like 18 months away. Now, uh, that's the key and that's why we follow flow [snorts] movements, all of those things.
So guys, if you enjoyed today's video, remember to check out some of our courses over at fxevolution.com if you're interested in that. Follow us on X and of course, I'm looking forward to seeing you in the next one. Bye for now guys.