Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name is Andy. My channel's Finding Value. Today we're going to do our daily technical analysis update of commodities. Work our way through the dollar, yields, precious metals, and commodities ETFs that I follow. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together. And if you need help with anything, check out findinghenval.com. That's where I dive deeper into all these sectors, looking for investment opportunities, and sharing them with everybody in the community. special is a coupon code that you can use if you'd like to sign up. Uh it's a 50% discount on the first month only on the monthly membership. Uh ends up being $25 for that first month. And then we get a larger discount on the yearly membership. It's a $100 discount. Ends up being 500 bucks for the entire year and you can use it multiple times if you'd like.
All right guys, let's dive in. See what's going on today. Starting with the DXY getting a little bit of selling pressure. We're also seeing yields pull back a little bit. Is this going to end up being a uh pattern that goes up like this where we can get some follow through to the downside? It's possible. And that's what I'm watching for. Seeing if we can get a move lower here because we did get a reversal candlestick today. It traded up and then reversed lower throughout the day. A big driver is yields. Uh, so if yields do pull back, and I'm not stating that we've broken anything yet, but if they do pull back, we could see the dollar start to work lower and potentially maybe we break out of this upward trend uh, as a possibility, igniting a gigantic commodity bull market [clears throat] because that's what would, I think, occur.
Two-year yield is down 7%. Are we going to get a breakout lower? Too early to tell. Uh but it was down today. We are in this pattern and we could do a false breakdown for a period of time where it does something like this. [clears throat] That is possible. We've got the 10-year yield uh down one down about 1%. Uh that is sitting I think on top of support. This one always goes slow. It's it's like everybody looks at the 10-year yield apparently. Uh yeah, there it is pulling on back. Now, this I'll just say this, it does look a little bit weird. Maybe they're in there buying this down. Uh and here we are going lower. We had oil uh up 1.81%. Kind of fishy that we've got the 10-year yield down and the 30-year yield down, but uh that's down one 1% and the 30-year is down 62% today. And that's already broken out of that to the upside. So that looks a lot better for trying to move higher over here. The issue that comes into play here. If this breaks, it's going to weigh on the stock market. Bent Trump especially has come out and said, you know, we're going to try to hold these yields down. We want a lower 10ear and we're going to try to hold this below 5%. And look, it is below 5%. It's every time it gets up there, they I don't know, maybe they buy it back down. Difficult to say. TT bond prices are up a little bit today. And again, I think this is going to blow up in their face and go lower at some point. I still think that that this was the ultimate peak here, that shoulder head shoulder. Could we go up before heading back down? That is possible. Obviously, I don't know for sure, but uh I'm in the camp that this will eventually on the long term have downward pressure.
Two in the 10 is uh up42%. So, we saw the 10-year drop more than the 2-year. This has been quote uninverting. I've got it inverted because when I compare charts like gold, uh you can see some of the correlations a little bit different. So, I look at it from this view. Everyone else has it flipped, but that has broken out to the downside. People are worried about this. They say, "Well, you know, this is a recession. Could be. I mean, we'll have to wait and see." Uh, usually during slowdowns, people run into bonds. But we haven't seen that that big run into bonds on the long end of the curve or anything on any end of the curve. We're still squeezing into these corners.
Looking at uh gold. Gold's up $127 an ounce. Uh we've got that support region that we were talking about last week and here it is moving higher today. Looks fantastic and I do think we could see follow through to the upside. Silver and platinum are racing today. Silver's up 7.14. A lot of people are talking about the pattern that was created here. It's this guy here. They're saying, "Oh, well, you know, I called this. I called this. We got a breakout here." Yeah, it's breaking higher out of the 45 year cup and handle. The momentum's to the upside. They tried to slow this move down by doing three margin hike increases over here, and I don't know if they're going to be successful. If that's not successful, we could go up quite a bit. Uh we got platinum up 6% that's also uh was impacted by those margin rate hike increases and today it was up quite good right at resistance here. And then palladium is up 4.4%. That's uh that's rocking today too. And then you got your margin rate hikes back here getting all hit. Uh but again if this just continues to bubble up it just means you have fiscal shortages. And the paper games, well, they're just games. They they can't they're not going to be able to do anything if you've got physical shortages.
XCU to gold ratio uh is up a little bit today. Uh to me, this looks like a bullish formation to go higher. I don't see any big selling pressure, no reversal candlestick yet. Follow through. We're up against some resistance. I think we'll eventually break that to the upside with time. And we're still at a very cheap cheap level for gold and silver mining companies in relationship to gold. GDX is up 3.17. There it is. GDXJ is up 3.66. Looks like we're still kind of in these flags. We'll see if we can clear this. And then Silj's up 4.48. And again, I don't know if this is a start. I'd like to see this close a lot stronger than what they did. We're up against some of this resistance. I don't know what all this is. Uh we've got think of it as like a support area here. Uh and and we're on top of it. So it still looks good. Cup and handle. Here's your cup. There's your handle. Break out. And then we'll we'll work our way on up. Still above support.
Crude oil up 1.85. I think a lot of people on Twitter are surprised by this. Uh they were all calling um I guess instantaneous production increase from Venezuela. just because America removed their leader. Tell me how that makes sense. But we did see some uh some bumping and grinding all over the place in the oil space depending on which company you were looking at. Some were up big, some were down big based off of the information or news that was released. In my opinion, I don't think there's going to be any problems. Like I I I don't think it's going to stop anything. Um, it's going to take a ton of money and a lot of time to try to get Venezuelan oil production up. And by that time, we're going to need way more oil than what we can produce from there, in my opinion. But we're still in this flag pattern. I do think this is going to break higher with time. We're still squeezing up in this big uh corner here. I'm in the bull camp uh longer term. Shortterm, I don't know if we break out lower and do one of these things or if we just break higher. I don't know. Uh, but I do think that we will go higher by the end of the 2020s for sure.
TTF gas down 5%. I know we've had warm weather here, at least in Colorado. That's back to support for TTF. Natural gas in America's pulling back a little bit more. Uh, we're still above support here. So, I'm still in the bull camp on the longer term. We got our our boy XP. Yeah, you know me. We had some pretty big volatility today with that news being released. I don't know if it triggered algorithms or what, but very very big moves here uh today. That's a gigantic candlestick. Um again, I don't put too much on it. When news is released and we see big volatility, I just kind of wait to see what the next few trading sessions have uh as that news gets absorbed. OIH was in the positive 5.3%. So we we ended up down in XLP 1.13 and we were up in OIH 5.3%. Maybe they're pricing in a bunch of services that are needed to to do this. This looks good to try to work its way on up. So I find it hard to believe that the oil exploration production companies would not go up with energy service as the entire world squeezes its oil uh supply.
Newcastle coal futures down 62%. So that's moving with natural gas. Natural gas was down 2.99. But I do think this is a good location to be looking. We've got Sprout Physical Uranium Trust down 1.4% today. Uh but the equities were up quite a bit. So that was down today. Still above all all the support regions. Everything looks good. Um I I do think uranium looks absolutely incredible to take off. I do looks very good. The uranium futures pricing uh that was last week. It still looks good. Nothing wrong there. Maybe it was down today with Sprawfield uranium trust down. The equities were up quite a bit. URA was up 5.6%. [clears throat] Looking pretty good. I've got my arrows there. UNM up 2.8. That's broken the flag pattern. It is now running. And URJ is up 5.7% and that's running higher. Looking good, feeling good. Uh in the uranium space as we break through that flag pattern upwards.
We've got uh nickel up about 2%. That's broken out of its big resistance uh region. It's this guy here, the dead period. And now we're in full stride cheetah style to the upside. So that looks really good uh for nickel copper up 5.2%. Absolutely rippity rip rip rip. Now we're closing above the highs here. Yeah, this thing's going to rip like silver did. So, get ready. It is ready to rip it. We're going way higher is my guess. Uh, with time obviously, I'm not stating it has to do it uh tomorrow or next trading session. It could. Not saying it can't. I just think it looks really good. Uh, COPX, the equities are flying higher, obviously. Looks like wave three is well underway here. So, wave one, wave two, and this is your false breakdown. This is where everybody gets shaken out. That was the uh April 2025. And then the ribbity rip rate. Um, so hopefully you guys did get shaken out of this thing, but it looks good.
Lithium's up to 1.72. That's ripping higher. Looking fantastic uh in my opinion. Uh RMX is also up 3.8. That's ripping higher. Lot of money flows coming in to these sectors. And uh commodity bull market looks uh looks pretty good. [clears throat] This was just a nice little consolidation before another rip higher. Iron ore down slightly. We're still in that consolidation. Give it time. It'll rip. It'll do the rippity rip rip things. We got aluminum up to 26. That's ripping higher. And I think you know aluminum and and copper. Uh they're going to be alternate aluminum is going to be an alternative to copper. But uh the shortages that are coming in copper and aluminum, they're gigantic. So I don't know how they're going to fix this. I think I mean I guess prices will, but prices are going to go way up.
Baltic dry index up 27% still above support looking good. And again this is it's going to follow whatever coal and iron or do and they haven't really broken out much. So we're just chilling right now. We're chilling. Emerging markets up 1.1. Here we are starting to break. Remember I talked about a launching pad? Here we go. This is the launching pad engaged. >> Launch engaged. >> So here we are. This looks fantastic for a big move. Big big move. Uh MOO. Uh it is up today. We are up 34%. And uh we're up right at that neckline. We're getting up to that neckline. Give it some time. We'll break through it. Looks really good. This is just a retest. Shoulder, head, shoulder inverted. Carry up 2%. Looking good. Feeling good. Getting back above the support region. So, that's holding on at the moment. And XHB is also up. These two I think moved together 65. We're still kind of above support. Everything looks good. So, everything everything looks good uh for both of those.
Russell's up 1.58. We need lower yields to push this higher. That's what they're doing. So, they're probably in there doing QE, but this is breaking higher. It looks good. We've got S&P up uh today and the NASDAQ's up 7. Uh these will go up if the 10-year yield stays well below 5%. So if we get a time if they can get that breakdown in yields uh where our yields drop back and break to the downside for a little bit uh these will run higher if if those yields do drop. BJT is up 1.15% today. Looking good trying to break out of this consolidation. Economy is looking I guess decent. We've got XLI also higher 1.18. That's breaking to new all-time highs. That's looking pretty solid here. And I use these as an indicator for the economy. That's that's what I'm using. I'm just watching these. These are some of the inputs that how people are positioning.
SMCI looks like garbage. Down 2.8%. I still think this has a ways to go lower. Uh Nvidia also uh getting some selling pressure today down4 surprisingly. uh surprisingly, but this did turn higher here. So, I don't know if they're in there plunge protection team style. I don't know.
Bitcoin's up 3%. That looks pretty good to go higher. Uh we had this nice little squeeze here. Um I don't have anything in this. I I don't believe in it really, but um it could go higher. Maybe maybe they lower interest rates and try to direct money towards it. [clears throat] Same with Ethereum. Ethereum's up 3.23. That's heading higher as well. Micro Strategy obviously moving in a leveraged way to Bitcoin. He is worried though and I do think it could chop sideways like this. So we could see Bitcoin go up. Maybe Micro Strategy chop sideways for a little bit uh as Bitcoin uh moves higher and then we'll see where we go from there. But that this is my guess. This is just a total guess of what could occur.
And then the VIX is up a little bit. surprisingly that the VIX is up today. Wow. Yeah, that is it's up just a teeny bit, but still well controlled and still well within the little rectangular box there. Um, and then just looking at currency exchange rates since I've got this up here. Take a little bit longer view. [clears throat] We're trying to break out for the Canadian US dollar. Uh, we're doing like a retest here. So I think that could break at any second and start running higher. Looks really good. Uh the African rand that has been ripping higher. So I think we're going to see a big move upwards where the African rand, South African rand could outperform a lot of different currencies, but it's definitely outperform the US dollar, the Brazilian realale that's uh trying to bottom here I think and work its way on up. So that looks really good and this is going to have all positive effects for emerging markets. That's why emerging markets looks like a launch pad. It's coming from currency exchange rates and money flowing towards these asset classes and and these currencies. Australian dollars up 04% that looks like it's ready to rip. So we could see a weaker dollar and these would strengthen these we could see big moves here. And then the British pounds going up too versus the United States dollar. All very good for a commodity bull market.
So that's what I've got from today. Give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you like. Special is a coupon code. And that's all I've got for today. So hopefully you guys have a good day. Catch you later.