Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are doing great. I am very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video of Tuesday, November 25, 2025, in front of a crypto map that is rather green because over the last 24 hours, cryptos have grown well since Friday, and even the stock market is rising. It's not bad. For now, with this new candle that started at 1 AM with the opening of the Asian stock markets, we see that they are a bit sellers. It's the same for the stock market, which closed yesterday in a very, very beautiful green. We have the Nasdaq which made +2.62%. It's a very nice candle. The SP500 +1.55%. All the big tech companies, even the Magnificent Seven, made nice green candles. So yesterday was a good day on the stock market. For now, the futures on the American indices here are slightly red. But hey, it's not a big deal. At worst, it can be a little bit red to correct what is pushing so suddenly. Sometimes, sometimes it makes a small red candle before starting again. Nothing serious.
Today, we will have macroeconomic figures that will be released. At 2:15 PM, we will have employment in the private sector. Did they fire people? Did they hire people? We will look at that. We will have the PPI which will show us a bit about the price. It's the individual price of production, the price of production from factories for different things. We will see if it is rather inflationary because everything that comes out of the factories, the price has increased due to tariffs or other things. So, we don't have the figures for the GFLs that will be released this week, but it will give us a preview of whether inflation is still there or not. So, we would rather prefer a decrease in all of this. We will have retail sales. Retail sales, it's everything. Food, drinks, your clothes, home goods, the whole lot. We will see if Americans continue to consume a lot or not. We would like that to decrease a bit too. So there will be quite interesting figures today. Private employment, the price and production, and household spending, spending of everyone, of all Americans. So it will be quite interesting.
Knowing that for now, the markets are rising, the BCOM has been making a nice recovery since Friday, the DAX for Bitcoin. Um, it's the same. The SP500, the Nasdaq rebounded well yesterday, the Gold too. You might say it doesn't really know where to go right now. And we have the yields here of the American 10-year. No, it's rather these ones that are falling because there is a lot of buying of treasury bonds because people, investors, increasingly expect an interest rate cut, and that is rather favorable for the markets. Now, we are at 81.1% probability of an interest rate cut by the central bank traders here. That's why the markets are rather happy. They are pricing in a famous rate cut for December. So it is very possible to have a rate cut for December. We also don't forget that we are waiting for two things. A rate cut is a small catalyst, it would be good. But even more so, we are waiting for the Fed to try to inject liquidity or decide to do so, especially knowing that on December 1st, the Fed said they were stopping tightening their balance sheet. So the belt-tightening should normally end in early December, within a week. Will it be the faucet opening a little? We hope so. In any case, there are quite a few analysts in the stock market sector who are talking about this.
Regarding the heatmap, we will analyze it tonight, well, of course, I'm going quickly. We have large clusters to look for below. That is to say, if Bitcoin decides to take a little detour here, it could fall towards $82,000, where the largest orders are to liquidate everything there. On the other hand, if Bitcoin continues and decides to keep rising, well, it's heading towards $93,000 because there is a large cluster between $89,400 and $92,590. And the next large sell orders are at $93,000. Between now and $87,500 and $93,000, there are no big, big sell orders, you see. So that's rather good news.
Now, about the news, what are they? Bitcoin's rise should continue. That's what Charles Edwards, founder of the Capriol fund, tells us. In short, Bitcoin has had a good recovery since it broke $4,000. Then, the altcoins too, of course. Tech stocks and cryptos have risen together. They had already fallen sharply for two weeks. Even cryptos, well, you know very well, even for 4 weeks. Well, uh, the one who really cooled down the markets was Powell when he said several weeks ago, uh, no, if you are expecting a rate cut in December, well, don't expect it too much. Well, so he had cooled down the markets a lot, and bam, we had corrected quite a bit after that.
We have analysts at the moment from the manager under block who are rather bullish and tell us that the risk aversion signal is falling sharply. It's the risk off signal. It's their signal. And that indicates two things to us. Firstly, the selling pressure has eased, and the worst of the capitulation is behind us. So they have their own model here, the risk off signal, which tells us, "Ah, we might be on a small bottom." So, they tell us to be careful, there is often a second wave of selling that is weaker than the first, and it is this second wave of selling that marks the exhaustion of sellers and the return of buyer control. I quote what they say. So with their risk signal, they tell us that it's starting to be good. We could have a. Well, what's good is that the last wave of selling aligns well with the structure, as I've been telling you for several days, the structure tells us to be careful not to have a last small bearish dip before starting again. Well, they are also quite in agreement on this risk off signal on their model that a small last wave could arrive. However, that would mark the bottom.
Bitcoin, which had hit $80,000, $86,000 on Friday, that's a 36% correction since its all-time high. That was quick, that 36% in 4 weeks, it hurt. That's why everyone, well, there's been a strong capitulation that we haven't seen since FTX. The probabilities of a rate cut have increased, but as I showed you this morning, 81.1%, and on Poly Market, well, that was rather last night at 67%. So that will surely increase on Poly Market. So many expect a rate cut and that the Fed announces a new management of their reserves and especially an expansion of liquidity. You see why? Because we've already talked about it. The Fed had said they had stopped tightening their balance sheet on December 1st. Then, you have two solutions. When you stop tightening your balance sheet, well, you do nothing, or then you go back to a bit of injection, you see. Well, so in short, if we have the rate cut and a bit of Fed injection from December, well, of course, all of that can relaunch cryptos and stock markets. You just need to be patient, as usual.
Well, we have other analyses here that show very interesting things, you see. And here, this comes from the Bitcoin analysis called Astronomer, who tells us that investors are currently going through one of the fastest capitulation phases since the 2022 bear market. And so he has his own model, this capitulation volume model, which has allowed him to identify the two good bottoms of the two previous bear markets. Okay? And he has his model, you see. And there, well, it's interesting. And so, you will see what he says, it's really precise. He tells us the same capitulation pattern has repeated 11 times in Bitcoin's history, producing consistent results. Okay? Out of 11 cases, Bitcoin has progressed, has made a +35% rise before going back into a larger downtrend. In short, if there is to be a bear market, it will first make +35%, that's on average, okay, it can be more, yeah. before going back into a full bear market mode. On the other hand, in 8 out of 11 cases, this configuration that we have currently, okay, marked the beginning of a new upward phase, ultimately leading to new all-time highs. I quote what he says, okay? And so, in short, his forecasts tell us that Bitcoin has a 91% probability of reaching $118,000 from now on, and a 75% probability that the market will also continue. So that's quite interesting. There you go.
So be careful, as usual, you have to be careful with indicators. An indicator is not a crystal ball, it's not "Yes, it will be this." It will be that. You have to look at many indicators. But we are starting to see many indicators that are telling us, "Could we have a small bottom?" You see, that's the idea. And I like him because he is quite precise in terms of statistics. So in short, either it pushes by +30% to fall lower afterwards, or it pushes by +30% and explodes, knowing that there is a 75% probability that it will be more of a continuation of the rise. So it's interesting.
And one last indicator here, which is very well known in the crypto world, is the Sharpe ratio, which has fallen to almost zero, and these are levels we often observe when we have good market bottoms. So this comes from CryptoQuant, from Moreno from them, who tells us that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio is currently in the same zone as it was during the bear markets of 2019, 2020, 2022, you see. And so Moreno tells us, this does not guarantee a bottom. In fact, it's normal, one cannot commit. Even I, I won't tell you "Yes, the bottom is here, nobody knows." But you sense little hints. What are the little hints of a top? This summer, we sensed it, there were divergences, there were many indicators showing that whales were distributing. It smelled bad this summer, clearly, and it didn't miss. Now it's the opposite. It's starting to smell a bit like roses, a bit like lavender, the smell you want. Chicken, if you like chicken, you see. Well, so he tells us that this does not guarantee a bottom, but it indicates that the quality of future returns is starting to improve, provided that the market stabilizes and volatility begins to normalize. In short, what does the Sharpe ratio say? It measures the ratio relative to risk. That is to say, when the Sharpe ratio is close to zero, it is high, it means that there is much more risk to buy Bitcoin at this point. That is, Bitcoin is more likely to correct than to rise. On the other hand, when the Sharpe ratio is zero or negative, well, the risk-reward ratio leans much more towards reward. That is, these are levels where you are much more likely to be rewarded by buying Bitcoin at this level than to lose, you see.
Now, be careful, this is not financial advice. What do I do? I continue my DCA on Bitcoin calmly, and that's it, you see. Well, after that, everyone does what they want. Well, and so he tells us that historically, periods of low Sharpe ratio often precede new long-term bullish trends, you see. And he tells us that a Sharpe ratio of zero is the opposite of buying during euphoric peaks when the Sharpe ratio is high and tells you to be careful, the risk-reward ratio is very high because the risk is much greater than the reward. And now it's the opposite, the reward is much higher compared to the risk. Bitcoin, well, it dropped 36%, that's normal. There you go. So he tells us that Bitcoin is not yet signaling a trend recovery, but it indicates that the risk-adjusted landscape is becoming increasingly attractive for future returns. You see, that's why we have quite a few big whales buying. For example, yesterday I sent a news item, it was Justin Sun who bought for how much? $250 million. The last time he bought for over $250 million was 4 months ago, if you like. Well, so it's not for nothing that we have whales starting to come back. So it's interesting. He tells us that over 8% of all Bitcoins have been moved in the past week. You see, this comes from Glassnode. And this has only happened twice in the last seven years of Bitcoin. And both times, it was during the bear markets in 2018 and 2020. And so, we have Joe Bernett, who is the Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, who tells us, "This makes these recent drops one of the most important on-chain events in Bitcoin's history."
Well, so in short, we see that we have more and more indicators telling us, "Ah, at some point, it smells like a big bottom." It smells like a big bottom now. Well, now, we don't know. Uh, don't forget, there could be a last wave of selling, huh. You shouldn't tell yourself, "The bottom is now and everything." I don't tell myself that. I keep some powder dry. If it goes back to $80,000, I'll buy some. But we are in such high capitulation levels, worthy of the end of a bear market, that at some point, we'll have to start again. Well, in any case, I share many different indicators with you every day. That's what you need for a global overview. You need to look at many indicators, and everyone forms their own opinion. My opinion is that I think the bottom is not far away. It could arrive in two weeks or in two months. I'm just calmly continuing my DCA, and that's it. Well, friends, this news video, I hope I have brought you some interesting information. Sending kisses. We'll meet again this afternoon for the analysis video. See you soon. Bye bye.