Transcription
In this video, I'm talking about the top three stocks that I'm continuing to add to my portfolio based off of their chart being the strongest, having the best options premiums, and providing the most consistent returns to my portfolio. I'm also going to go over what the market may be doing next week. And finally, I'm going to go over why I have 25% cash sitting on the sidelines as we go into next week. So, let's go ahead and jump into it.
Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary.
Now, if we take a look at the account, we can see we just hit brand new all-time highs in the portfolio. If you want to see me hit my 8 figure goal and follow along that journey, be sure to be subscribed to the channel if you aren't already subscribed by clicking the subscribe button down below this video. Also, if you get any value out of this video, please give it a thumbs up as I greatly appreciate that and I appreciate you being here.
But let's take a look at the realized gain loss for the month. As you can see, for the current month, we're up about $40,000 in profit. Obviously, results vary month to month, year to year, but this would have been higher um had I not gotten a signed Palunteer, HIMS, um I ran, right? Those premiums aren't being reflected here. So, I'm closer to 55K in premiums for the month, but we're just going to go based off this number. Not a bad return there, but I'm not the only one doing it.
As you can see here in my private mastermind, Options Trading University, we now have 645 clients in here sharing their inspiration. Shreder here sharing his inspiration um since being in the program. As you can see there, um we have Steve here with a nice inspiration and less with a record inspiration here. Um if you do want access to my Ryan's Trades and my leaps, entries, and exits channel, that'll be at the top of the description down below. Also, I do give away free trade ideas on my Instagram, my ex account, and my free newsletter. All three of those are down below in the description. Make sure to be subscribed because they're all free.
So, let's go ahead and dive into it. We have a few things coming up next week. ADP employment next Wednesday, initial jobless claims Thursday, and core PCE next Friday, which could cause some volatility in the markets. Now that we've had five straight up days, I'm going to talk about why I think we could have a little pullback next week going into all of this economic data coming out.
Now, the market did love that the rate cut odds for December have gone up to 86.93%. Last update video, these were at 82%. So, the odds for a rate cut coming for December have been increasing every single day now. And this is very good for the markets. Obviously, if we don't get that rate cut in December, we'll get one most likely in January. So either way, it's coming. But expect a little bit of volatility if we don't get that rate cut on December 10th. So that's a key date to put on your calendar. And that's why right now I'm having a little bit more cash in the portfolio.
Okay. Long term, the market's going to continue going up because of obviously rate cuts that we're getting. Next um April, we have another one being priced in 71%, another one potentially in September. Um and then another one potentially at the end of the year or early 2027. So we have a slew of rate cuts coming on the way.
Also, some new data came out. Okay, that got released on November 25th, which which was the M2 money supply. So this is money in circulation in savings, checkings, money market accounts. Uh a record for October 22.298. 298 trillion in circulation. And this money has to go somewhere, right? Chase's assets, real estate, stock market. And this is what we want to continue to see for a bullish um, you know, continuation in this market. Rate cuts coming in, also M2 money supply going up, kind of like how we saw back in 2021. Okay, so nice to see that data.
But let's talk about QQQ. We've had significant, you know, we've had one, two, three, four, five up days here on the NASDAQ or what tracks the NASDAQ 100. Okay, QQQ trading above the 614 level I talked about, which was a key area of resistance. Broke above that today and now [snorts] we're trading at 619. RSI looking very bullish, not even close to being overbought. MACD just made a bullish crossover today. Okay, so could we see a couple more days of continuation of this? Sure.
But what are the odds of the market continuing to go up? Well, Tasty Trade or Tasty Live did a study on this, and I want to reference this study because I love looking at their data from the past 20 years of the S&P 500. As you can see, when VIX is above 15, which we are right now, okay, if we go to the VIX, we're trading at 16. So typically when I see this thing get below 15, that's when real greed and confidence really sets in. Obviously there's a little bit of greed and confidence right now and [snorts] fear is definitely subsiding and we definitely could see a continuation downwards on the fear and volatility index which means that you know ideally I'd like to have a little bit more cash in the portfolio.
But if we take a look back at that study okay we're currently sitting right here five up days. This is the streak. Okay. When when VIX is above 15, the number of streaks we've had or of five up days has been 46. 46 times this has happened in the past 20 years. 8% probabilities. Okay. There's a very low probability that we continue higher for a sixth day, but it's definitely possible. Right? Historically, the 4% of the time we've had six up days in a row 21 times in the past 20 years. and then seven days in a row, nine times in the past 20 years, which is 2% of the probabilities uh when VIX is above 15.
So the, you know, the reason why I have a little bit more cash on the sidelines right now is not only I'm following the VIX cash allocations, but based off of this study, it looks like, you know, potentially we may have a down day in the future, which could be a good opportunity to deploy some of that cash.
But let's take a look at the VIX cash allocation levels. As you see right now, we're trading on the lower end of VIX 15 to 20. So, there's still slight fear in the market here, but essentially I could have 20 to 25% in cash. Right now, I have about 25.5% in cash. So, I'm on the more conservative side right now, especially into this runup. We took a lot of trades off the table, cleared up a lot of profit, and if we do get another dip, right, in the markets, let's go back to uh QQQ and I'll kind of talk about what potentially could happen, right? we could see, you know, maybe another up day, maybe a second up day, and then a little dip back down, maybe below 613, right, before we head back higher. So, I want to take advantage of this dip to deploy the rest of the cash before we head higher here on QQQ. So, that's kind of what I'm playing for right now, just keeping it, hey, you know, anything could happen with next week's economic data. Then the following week, the Fed speaks and, you know, potentially we get a rate cut, potentially we don't. So either way, I'll be ready for when that comes. And I want to make sure that you're ready um in those situations.
So let's talk about the three stocks that I I think are the strongest right now in the market. They're not at the lowest, right? But they're the strongest and they've been performing the best in my portfolio uh this past year. So let's go ahead and dive into it.
Okay, the first one is going to be SoFi. SoFi has been a consistent premium generator for me uh selling cash secured puts and running the wheel on this stock ever since before the tariffs crash. I mean this thing has had a beautiful upward trending chart and ever since the tariffs crash it's been almost impossible to get assigned shares here because the stock just continues to hug this upper Ballinger band and finally we've had quite a nice little dip here but it's been pretty stable. So, uh, you know, SoFi has been one of those stocks that have been definitely the easiest to trade in the portfolio, but not only does it have one of the most beautiful charts, but it has some of the best premiums in the cash secured put options.
So, let's go into the portfolio and I'm going to show you exactly what I did today. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary, but if we take a look at the account, okay, we're going to go down to the SoFi position. Current position size is 183K in cash secured puts. I'm willing to add more here, but we have the 27 put options. All right, to collect about $7,000 in premium. Obviously, results vary there. But if we go out to December 26th, okay, I was selling the 27 put options. I would probably go to the 28s now to pick up 116 bucks, which is a potential 4.5% return in 28 days. Results vary based off of where the stock is at on Monday, but I really like this strike. Okay. Um, in the in the short term, I think that SoFi is headed a lot higher. I think we could reclaim all-time highs at 32 and potentially gut get up into the 34 area by end of year. So, that's kind of what I'm seeing for SoFi. Just kind of a nice steady upward move into that 34 area by the end of year. But again, the premiums have been consistently between 3 1/2 to 5% potential ROI for a 30-day option. Um, obviously the risk there is if the stock goes below 27 or 28, right? When I sell that option, the 28, I'll be forced to buy 100 shares at 28, even if the stock goes down to 25. Okay? And that would lock up about $2,800 per contract. But I like that. I like those odds. And uh, you know, from all-time highs at this point from 32 all the way down to 28 would be about a about a 14% discount. So not bad considering that we can I can still get discounts on SoFi here while being semi-aggressive and collecting 4.5%. So really liking SoFi. This is, I would say, one of the best stocks, but there are two better that I'm going to go over that have been even more consistent with not only premiums, but the chart looking really good.
So, the next one's going to be STX, Seagate Technologies. I mean, look at this chart. Just very, very steady. The thing that I like about this type of stock, too, is that it's not talked about in the news too much. Okay, SoFi has a lot of publicity, especially with Anthony Notto being the CEO. uh very outspoken, right? A little bit more publicity. Obviously, not as much as like a Mag Seven stock because it's a smaller company, but Seagate is kind of in the back in the shadows growing, right? Um while the fundamentals are very, very strong, 35 PE ratio, which is extremely low for the AI sector, and we're, you know, not too far off all-time highs. So, you're definitely not getting the mass a massive discount here. But, um, if you want something, you know, more consistent, this is what I like to add to the portfolio. So, we're still about 7% off all-time highs.
But, if we go into the portfolio, okay, you'll see my position, and this is just one of my positions. I have another portfolio with um about a same size position. So, we have about a couple hundred K in STX put options. But, as you can see, I have the 235s, the 245s to collect about 5,100 bucks in premium. All right. And if I were to open a brand new put today, I'd go out to December 26th. And I would probably go to around that 30 delta. So, I could go anywhere from, you know, I'd probably go to the 255s, which is a 28 delta, which is a 3.6% ROI. So, the ROI is very high, right? And that obviously that results vary there based off of where the stock is at on Monday. But um, this meets my return profile and it's very good. Sell one of these, pick up, you know, 900 bucks and uh wait 28 days. All right. If the stock goes below 255, buy expiration. I'll be forced to buy 100 shares. If not, cool. Collect the premium. Do it all over again. So if we go to all-time highs and then we go down to 255, right? If the stock did fall there, I'd be getting a 14 about a 14% discount just like on SoFi. Okay, so good levels here, quality stock, great fundamentals, they have a lot of cash on hand. Um, and it's in the AI sector, but kind of a tangent off of a direct AI play. So, STX is one of those more quieter stocks that has been printing um, you know, in the past several months. So, this one is very, very good.
Now, let's talk about my favorite stock in the portfolio, and I put my money where my mouth is, and you'll see why. So, CLS, Celestica, has been quite an amazing stock. I mean, look at this thing from the tariffs crash back when it was trading at $60 all the way up to 344, right? It's not too far off all-time highs. I mean, we're only about 5.5% down from all-time highs on this stock. So again, one of the stronger stocks, but I do see this one rebounding and hitting new all-time highs before end of year, potentially 380, maybe even higher, maybe even 400. So really liking Celestica. Again, if we look at the PE ratio, 55, so not too high, kind of right in line with Nvidia. And it's a smaller company, so it has a lot of room to grow. They create, they manufacture a lot of the switches and the networking gear for AI data centers. and kind of being a tangent play that's quieter, not really in this in the news as much. That's something that I really like.
Okay, so again, let's go to the portfolio. You could see my current position 217K. All right, this makes up 14.5 uh% of my portfolio. 14 Yeah, 14.5% because I really like this company and I've never gotten assigned on it and I go pretty aggressive. So, I sold the 310 put options to collect about 9,000 in premium for December. But again, if I open up a new trade, let's just say on Monday, December 26, 28 days out, I would go to that 30 delta, which is a 315 strike now. Okay, about 29 delta. Pick up 1240 or probably closer to 1300, somewhere in the middle of 1240 and 1430 for a potential 4.4% ROI. Really good returns that meets my, you know, profile, risk profile, and if the stock goes below 315, I'll be forced to buy 100 shares. So, really liking Celestica. That's been a no-brainer um for my portfolio, and it's been a consistent, beautiful uptrending chart. So, not very hard to trade the wheel strategy on.
Now, if you enjoyed this video, you enjoy more updates like this, please be sure to hit the thumbs up button, and I'll see you in the next video. Take care.