Transcription
We are currently in our test zones on the market, especially on BTC, to see whether or not we can go against the crash we experienced, or if unfortunately we are in a bearish continuation. That's what we're going to see today. Also, we will talk about Ethereum, of course. We will look a little at what's happening with the fundings, to see if people are shorting this rebound or not. Just before we start, I remind you that our free algorithm service is still available. You keep 100% of the gains. The info, well the stats sorry from last week have fallen. 31 TP for the LIM algorithms. Some of our algos managed to capture interesting buys on the DIPs we had. They are made for that. Also the SPT strategies here which made plus 8. So very very good weeks for these algos. To access them, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. You keep 100% of the links. Once you are on this page, you just have to click right here on the second link to register on Bitgate. There is our partner link which will simply allow you to also participate in the small contest that Bitgate has set up. There is up to $10,000 to win. It's free to participate. There is nothing to lose. There are only things to gain. So you just have to click here to register. Once that's done, you just have to click on this link Algo Trading, mentorship, VIP, Alcoin and crypto. This will allow you to access the free algos. But if you don't want the algos, you just want the mentorship for example, well that's possible too. I've made you a small video that explains absolutely everything. And you will also have access to the VIP, Alcoin and crypto right here on Discord, in which I will share the best opportunities on altcoins.
So to come back to BTC, I made a video about it yesterday, we talked about this zone, it's going to be extremely important, it's this drop candle here which forms a bearish fair value gap that we are working on. So Sunday evening, we had a small pump, Trump tweeted more or less that he wanted to ease tensions, that blah blah, he is ready to negotiate. On the other hand, there are rumors saying that China doesn't even want to respond to the United States. In short, it's going to be a big mess again. Think of it as a 2.0 episode, like it was with the tariffs in April 2025. Now, the price doesn't lie. That is to say, well, if investors no longer have confidence for the moment or don't want to expose themselves on BTC, very quickly, we will have a Bitcoin that will reject in this candle. On the other hand, if the confidence is still there and that was just a movement, let's say oops where there was well, let's not kid ourselves, there were clearly market makers and exchanges that let this big cleaning move happen, especially on altcoins. If it was just that, yes, possibly we could start again. But there's no point in saying yes, this will happen, yes, that will happen. The most important thing is to observe the price reaction in this FVG. Understand that as long as the market hasn't, it's simple, as long as the market doesn't break this FVG again, there's a very high chance, in my opinion, of coming back to work the wick so that the CME market can also come and take the stops. Because the CME market was closed during this big liquidity grab. And what you need to understand is that the CME market is just as important when you look at its open interest, the OI on the CME market are more important than what we have on the derivative markets. Now Binance, Bitgate, etc. You see the CME is 148,000 Bitcoin in derivative products, so 16.9 billion. The second is Binance with 12.6. So now the CME weighs more than Binance, etc. And therefore, to bet that if we respect the FVG here, well that we will come and recover the stops on the CME.
The theoretical stop zone on the CME would be the low of September here at 108455, which would allow us to come back and work our support and the median threshold of the wick. Here, these are often levels that can be re-worked. Now, again, I don't know what's going to happen, obviously. I just think that since the CME hasn't come to take the stops, the CME will come to do it. And that's why I expect a re-work of this wick. And when we refine the price a bit in hourly, well, quite simply, we can see that maybe in 15 minutes, it will be clearer, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to come and recover. Oops, not necessarily. Maybe we'll go lower than the wick, I don't know. But if we don't go lower than the wick, generally the price can come into a reload zone for the rebound. So there, you take the low, the high we currently have. Well, it's going to continue to rise, but currently our high is here. And therefore, the reload zone would be exactly around 106900 to 4600, which would allow us to come and work this wick and take all the stops from these intermediate lows here, for example. If we wanted to start again, we could very well come back to work the wick and then do something like this. Okay? This is the scenario where, well, we get rejected by the FVG and we come back to re-work the wick. Now, there is another scenario where the price simply does what? Well, neither more nor less, it makes a bearish continuation. And at that point, if we go for a bearish continuation, well the next theoretical objective, it's the low of the wick 101500 on Bybit, Binance, the exchanges. There have been so many sprays, price differences that it will depend on the exchanges. And then in quick succession, it would be the 98K. So that's only if we go for a bearish continuation. And then the best scenario is the breakout of this FVG to go for a new ATH, to go against the trend and try to break our trendline. I remind you again, I've been talking about it for weeks. The most important zone to break is the famous trendline. We've been rejected once, twice, three times. Here, we still haven't broken it, and we need to break it if we want to have what's called a climax run, a price acceleration, to reach 130, 140, 150, maybe even higher, who knows, we need to break this trendline zone here. On the other hand, the worst scenario is the question of the last low. I talked about it yesterday, the last order block. If we have a breaker block here, expect us to enter a bearish swing. Will that happen? I don't know. Again, I'm like you. I observe the price. For me, if you are exposed on BTC, as is my case for example, BTC is my only crypto bag, well almost 98-99%. Personally, for me, as long as this zone is not broken, it's a zone where you should stay hedged, meaning you should do nothing, don't expose yourself to BTC. In my opinion, it's better to stay out because we are not safe from a second leg. Okay? That's my opinion again. Maybe the market will, I don't know, consolidate for ages. But in any case, once we have the breakout of this zone, then yes, there are clear signs of continuation and it's better to re-expose yourself to BTC in my opinion. Whereas as long as this zone is maintained, well in my opinion, it's better not to stay exposed to BTC since a second leg can happen at any time.
So, the CME has reopened. We don't have a gap on the CME, so that's rather okay. Which means that when we reopened on the CME, there was no gap when you take the price at maybe a tiny one but in any case, it's not visible. There's no hole in the chart here. So that's rather okay. On the other hand, yes, it's true that the CME, as I told you, hasn't come to recover the stops, it could try to do it. So that's what could indicate that we could come back to work this wick, why not. So that's what we'll have to observe regarding the fundings. Well, you can imagine that it's a big mess since given the big price discrepancies we've had, well I think the orders, the liquidity, it's coming back little by little, so that will impact the fundings. How are fundings calculated? Mostly, it's on the spreads. What are spreads? It's the price difference between the spot market and the perpetual market. To give you a simple example, here on the crash, the spot market was $1000 higher, lower, higher, sorry, than the perpetual market. What does that mean? It means that more or less, since we crashed so hard on the perpetual, well at one point the spot was $1000 higher because there were big liquidation cascades on the perpetual market and therefore this created positive spreads. So that created a huge mess. That's in the process of readjusting, and I think that maybe during the week we'll have the complete readjustment, we'll know a little more about the fundings because I think the fundings will be very volatile given the liquidity mess that it caused. So I don't think we should rely too much on fundings for the moment. It means everything and nothing given the liquidity mess that was created.
Regarding open interest, what we need to observe is whether interest will return. That's what's important. Because if, for example, at the slightest dump, open interest drops, it means that the big players are simply out, that no one wants to stay exposed on BTC. That could indicate that people no longer want to expose themselves to the market. So that will be a problem for the moment. So we see for now that open interest has risen, etc. that will be monitored. It shouldn't degenerate either, that open interest explodes completely, because that would indicate that people have finally decided, at the slightest rebound, to go all in and try to make it back with leverage, which wouldn't be the best thing, but for the moment, it remains consistent with what the price is doing, so we don't have more information at this level regarding OI, but in any case, I think there are many people who lost a lot and who will try to make it back, and that could indeed create more volatility perhaps later on.
Regarding the US market, I'll do the macro review just after. Obviously, good zones have been reached on the US markets. I already talked about it yesterday, but we'll go into more detail in the macro review later. And on the ETH side, ETH is also working on the FVG. Yesterday, I didn't put it in red. So this is our resistance zone. It will be important to see if we manage to break it or not, because it could just be a liquidity grab before an ATH push. This is if Bitcoin breaks its fair value gap. Ethereum could also, well, simply go for a new ATH and trigger $5000. Given the massive liquidations we've had, well, all buyers are pretty much out. So we could push without too much trouble. Now, the most important thing, obviously, will be to break this FVG because if we don't break it, well, what happens? It remains a bearish dynamic, and therefore, well, the objective would be to come back and work at least the wick, and I think we would simply take the last intermediate low at a minimum, so $3639, or potentially make a lower low. So that's why, as with BTC, this crash candle must be broken. It must be broken for the price to be able to redirect towards the highs and perhaps give us a bullish continuation, because if we don't succeed, well, it's more indicative of a re-work of these lows, or even a continuation lower, bearish continuation, sorry, with this stop grab that wasn't done here, which will be an objective. So to come and take the stops below $3357 approximately $3350, something like that.
Regarding ETH, do we have any information? Well, it's following the rebound of the indices. So if the indices go to the moon, the crypto market might follow. We could break our FVG. You see here that we are re-working this vector FVG. So that's completely normal. These are zones where there is a lot of work to be done. That's what the price is doing. And these will really be important zones. These will really be important zones that we must break because if the price here, well, it stops at these price levels, more or less, and even the FVGs I can extend them up to there, then if it weakens again, that's good for coming back to work these impulse candles, but why not, as I told you, come and take the stops we saw earlier, $3640, and so on and so on. That's why these price zones must be broken, and I think we'll know soon enough this week. Are we really entering a pattern? A bearish swing, it's too early to talk about that, but are we entering a retest of the wicks or not? If we see rejections in the FVGs I'm showing you, yes, we'll be in retest zones. I think of the wicks personally, so in daily, it's quite quickly visible that we have these wicks here. The intermediate lows, so the low of Saturday, $363040 on ETH, and so on and so on. Bitcoin around 1078000 so that the CME can also come and take the stops because it hasn't been done. If we also look at ETH futures on the CME, there haven't been any stop grabs. We see that we stopped just before, with respect to the closing. So this is the low of the previous month of September, if I'm not mistaken, exactly, and it wasn't taken. So that doesn't mean it will be the case again, but there are still chances, I'm telling you honestly, that we'll go back there. Because it's rare that stop grabs don't happen on the CME. Sometimes it happens, but it's not the most probable thing. Okay? So, don't be surprised if there's a retest of the wicks. That's all I want to say. And then we'll know if it's really a bearish continuation, if we'll clean up lower or not, we'll see that later. But in any case, that's a little bit what we'll have to think about.
Also, to conclude this video, there are potentially ETFs that can be approved at any moment from this week, I believe, until the end of the year. There are quite a few ETFs that could be accepted. To be seen. That could potentially allow the market to relaunch. In short, we had the big cleanup, the reset of all the leverage, and the ETFs are approved. So that's what gives fuel to the market. That's a possible scenario, but again, to do that, we need to break these FVG zones, whether on Bitcoin or Ethereum, to give fuel back to the market as a whole. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to hit the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you in the description box, you have all the free links, well all the links that lead you to free access and content. The only paid subscription is my trading school which is right here. Join my school. We debrief every day from Monday to Friday starting at 9 am Paris time. I answer students' questions, I analyze their altcoins, we find opportunities together. I talk about my personal exposure, what interests me, what doesn't interest me. The price is only €49 per month, it's without commitment. You have even cheaper offers with the 3 and 12 month offers. You also have access here to the school's training, which is the most complete, 19 hours of video courses, 8 modules that train you from A to Z. You have a little more description right here. You also have access to Discord to ask all your questions, and you have testimonials from members to give you an idea. You are welcome. I'll stop here. We'll meet again later for the macro review. See you soon. Bye bye.