Transcription
Mr. Kemkens, naturally the first question that we must ask is very clear: What do you expect from the Alaska summit of the two presidents, Putin and Trump?
>> Good question. I think we are uh positively optimistic. We are watching what happens. I believe it will be the start of further consultations.
>> Then I have a personal question. How do you experience Moscow here? Germany is, from a Russian perspective, an unfriendly state. Are there any hostilities?
No, I don't think I can say that. Well, I personally have never been subjected to hostility, and otherwise, when I speak with my friends and former acquaintances and former colleagues, it is actually more the case that people are interested in how the image of Russians in the West is, and one talks about art, culture, sports, politics, as always, but actually not much has changed, one must say fairly, in perception.
>> And how is that for Germans when they do business here? Is that even still possible, and for the companies that are still there?
>> Yes, is it possible? Naturally, it is restricted by the sanctions of the European Union and the Americans, that is clear. Uh, otherwise, the Russians are, as always, pragmatic, driven by opportunities. Uh, they actually wish for long-term relationships, and I would also perhaps suspect, rather with Western countries than with their partners in the East sometimes.
>> It is naturally also about your competence as an economic and financial expert. How do you assess the situation of the Russian economy, and what is the mood among managers?
Yes, I think the mood is, um, is, is differentiated, one must consider it that way. When one looks at it macroeconomically, inflation is decreasing somewhat, the central bank has lowered the key interest rates. At the same time, one naturally also sees that the banking sector has come under some pressure. One will see how that will turn out. The state has created many incentives, so to speak, there are many state contracts, that keeps the economy running, and I believe, if one looks at the forecast, we are somewhere around 1 to 2% economic growth, which I think is quite okay under the current situation, one must also say, right?
>> And Russia has managed quite well with the sanctions so far. Which sanctions would really hurt Russia? What would lead to a rethink in the Kremlin? Keyword oil perhaps, and the financial sector?
>> Yes, keyword oil is good. Yes, because the state budget naturally depends on it. On the other hand, I mean, if one looks at Iran, they are completely cut off from the Western financial system. That is not the case here. That would certainly hit hard. The sanctions act like a creeping poison. Yes, I believe so here too. But Russia has also adapted quickly. Russia was very creative, has an external border of 50,000 kilometers, and also has partners who themselves perhaps, keyword multipolarity, look in this direction and are then also happy to be partners with Russia.
>> Many Russians are heavily indebted, many companies too. Many can no longer repay their loans and credits. Is Russia facing a banking crisis?
>> One reads that repeatedly too. That is the question: banking crisis versus credit crunch. I believe here too, one must still wait. Non-performing loans in the private sector are at 10%, in the business sector at 4%. The banking sector is fundamentally very healthy, a regulator has worked on that. Uh, Sberbank, the largest bank in Russia, repeatedly says, we wish for a license of 12 to 14%, so that growth can also be stimulated. I believe that the Russians and the Russian state have always reacted very creatively and very quickly to situations in the past, and I am proceeding from that now too. In that respect, my forecast for the next 12 to 18 months is perhaps rather a credit crunch than a banking crisis.
>> There are no reliable opinion polls in Russia, but how do you experience the mood here in the country, and what about the will for peace in the population? Or do people want a victory where everything that the Kremlin envisions is enforced?
I think the question of what a victory is, is a complex question. I believe it is about a clarification of relations, and the first step will hopefully be taken now in Alaska, and I think the people do wish for stable conditions to return. At the same time, however, my feeling is also not at any price, because the relationship must be clarified, and that is the start, hopefully in Alaska.
>> And there is naturally a question about Moscow, how do you experience Moscow, what is it like for you? What do you particularly like here?
A good friend of mine always says there is a difference between a tourist and a traveler. A tourist likes to look at nature and monuments and so on. A traveler talks to people. I simply like the human contact. The people, the Russians are, are an open people, an optimistic people, with whom one can talk about many things. Moscow is a city that is very digital, you can order everything. The entire public administration area is also super digital. Everything works 24/7. There are still great opportunities for going out, and Moscow in the summer is also really very beautiful, it is very livable. It is a very interesting city.
>> KKZ interesting impressions. Thank you very much for your assessment.