Oil at $100: Why Stocks Are Crashing Now

Crude oil is continuing to rocket higher, and developments that are happening right now are not making the situation any better. The US recently bombed an area in Iran that was a critical oil hub. Iran responded immediately, hitting key UAE oil hub areas. The situation is developing fast, and we have a lot to cover in this video, but we can all see the slope, and the question is, how much worse does it get?

We're going to go over smart money, dumb money, and look at exactly what they're doing right now and how this has affected us in the past. Before this escalation, Goldman already raised the fourth quarter Brent level to $91 because of all the disruption. Now, put on top of that, just yesterday, they raised the PCE forecast and cut GDP. All of this while margin to GDP is at all-time highs. Meanwhile, the S&P is at a critical level. We can all see the 200-day moving average. We can all see it on the Qs as well. But is the breadth of the market already factoring all of this in? We have a lot to go over. Let's get to it.

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All right, guys. Bonus points if you can spot three things that are wrong with that little clip there that are just absolutely false. I'll give you one. I do not own white Crocs. We have a lot to go over. It's packed, and I actually edited this one down and took about 30 minutes out of it. So, I'm probably going to run that on Monday. You do want to subscribe to this. It's going to be pretty actionable today. I want to point out the basics, and then we're going to dive right into smart money and inflows and outflows. And then we have to go through the areas that I think are really going to run when this ends and how to develop a playbook as well, so that you know exactly what you're doing because you need to know what you're going to do dependent upon the scenarios because the scenarios are developing pretty quickly. I just want to show you where you're at right now.

And right now, on the 200-day moving average, 50% of all names in the S&P have broken. They're gone. And you're at about 70% right now. 31% over the 20-day are gone, and you're down here at 20% I believe right now on the 20-day, and you're down here about 21%. Now, this is where it gets super interesting to me, and we can get into this a little bit later in another video, but you do get to trough levels where, yes, a bounce is due. Now, does that happen here? Not usually. Usually, when you break the 50 here, you start getting into these low teen numbers, even single digits, before this can get any better. Over the weekend, and why I put those on, uh, those clips on is this is getting worse. So, I actually am working that into today's video on how to look at this if it gets worse, not better. And I think that's really important for us to get. But is this a trough valuation for the 5-day? Yeah, you're getting there. Is that going to be enough? No. It can always get to a position where you have more winning and more liberation, right? And we down here, we actually got to a level where it was a one. I don't see how the five holds if the 20 does not start grabbing here. Can this start hitting an area? You're getting extreme, and that means that you can bounce, but that doesn't mean that all of a sudden the underlying pinnings of the market are going to get better. For example, there were times when back here when you had a special cardboard where you can see that we were under this 50-day, and you're under this on the 50 as well, meaning under 50%, excuse me. And then you rally here on the 20, but the 200 and the 50s don't move, and the fives bounce, and you're like, "Oh, this is good. I got to get involved." And then all of a sudden, wham, right? Matumbbo? And then you're eating hot pockets. So, you want to pay attention to this because short-term, you can see some alleviation based upon what I'm seeing here, but longer-term, there are some cracks here, and this pretty much shows it.

Now, here you have the Qs, and I'm just going to show you this on a daily. You're completely out of the range on where you've been since the peak. So, you're completely broken out of this. And this is important because this is your volume profile, and anyone can do this anchored volume profile from that level. If you look at this close, it is literally the worst close that you have had all year. It is literally the third worst close since you've had since October. It's not getting better, it's getting worse. What's going to make it better is for this to stop. And until that, you have to assume and trade what is in front of you. It doesn't mean that you don't have rallies, but you also have some other things that are going on here. I don't like the way that is. So, we're just going to make sure that it's perfect. There it is, and go from there. So, you have your VWAP down here, which is 575. To me, that's a no-brainer at this point. I mean, that has to hold, right? If you go to the Qs, or I'm sorry, you go to the Spy here, and we drop it here, we can see that level, and that would get you to 642. Is this an area that we can get to? 100%. We don't really need to do this and look at the weeklies, right? We don't. We're going to clean all this off and just do it anyway because I said we don't need to. That is a shooting star. That's not good. I've seen good before. That's not what it looks like. This is what I have right now. If I have world peace on Tuesday, I have a completely different look. But I can only go over what we have right now. And we're going to spend time on this.

I do want to just point out the obvious because I think it's very important. If you look at the VIX, and people will say, "Oh, well, we definitely have the ability to top." What should be an area of interest for everybody before we dive into this is the fact that you had zero follow-through day on the VIX. A matter of fact, you actually turn green the next day. Every time that this becomes a high, you have a follow-through day, meaning down, the next one's down. Down, the next one's down, meaning risk off. That's not what you had here. You had a peak, you got a tweet, and since that tweet, you've done nothing but left. And it's really important because when you even go through back here when we had all that winning and liberation, rallied, and then we had another day, falls apart, rallies. When does it really end? Down, follow-through day. It's the same pattern over and over again. Until you have two of those, you probably aren't there. Now, whether or not you want to short the VIX or whatever you want to do with this trade, that's up to you. Am I saying that that's not the high? It could be, but you have no sense that this is over yet. And that's really important that you understand that as we get to this. There'll be a lot of unwinds when this happens. But this is where we need to start. Let's do smart money, dumb money, and let's go from there.

In front of us is smart money, dumb money, and it's three years right here. And the one thing I want to say is we don't usually refer to it as smart money, and we certainly don't refer to it as dumb money. And here is the three years, just so you're aware of this. Now, how we refer to it here is institutional versus retail, and that's going to make a lot more sense in a minute here. So, number one, this is not smart, and this is not dumb. So, we don't refer to them as that. We refer to smart as institutional, and we refer to dumb as retail. So, it's not smart, it's institutional. It's not dumb, it's retail. So, just whenever you see the word smart money, think institutional. Dumb money, think retail. Now, there's a reason for this. Smart money moves slow. Institutions move slow. Dumb money moves fast. Retail moves fast. And I'm again, I'm saying it like Hooked on Phonics to really make it sink in. What I want you to take from this is retail think we move like a rabbit. I'm retail. Smart is institutional. That is your pension funds, your huge inflows. Think of it that way. And this is really important to get because once you understand that they are more analytical, where dumb money is more emotional. And you have a system here that we've used over time and time again. And I really haven't shown this graph because there was just really no reason to.

When you have this situation where retail is selling faster than institutions can buy, you'll see these huge moves. You'll get these big drops, and that's just like you're getting here. And with all that winning and liberation that we had, that was retail getting out in a panic and institutions buying, but retail was getting out so fast that institutions couldn't buy fast enough to keep the market up. That's why when you start seeing areas where retail is going straight across and institutions are going straight across, it becomes much different. I don't really like how that's showing up. So, we'll do it this way, and that might be better. Yep. So, there you go. You can see it a little clearer now. And why is this important? Because there's a time to use every indicator, and there's a time to look at every indicator. Not that they don't have value all the time, but understanding that nuance that I just went over makes this graph much more valuable. So, you'll even see this little bottom that you have in this section right here, and you'll see this little causeway right here where institutions are getting out, but retail's getting in fast enough that that's going to put a bottom in the market. And what we have here is a situation where we're flipping. Now, these situations where you flip like this, they tend to mark tops. They do not tend to mark bottoms. You can get in a situation where you undercut, and then retail stops selling for whatever reason, and then they reverse. And that's when you're going to get situations like this where you're going to drop and then all of a sudden lift. But as long as retail's up here, until you start getting some order flow in there, you don't really have that quote-unquote bottom. You just have a situation here. And that situation could be a slight pullback, but it's the speed and velocity that matters when you start seeing what retail is doing. And it's the speed and velocity and what institutions are doing. So, that is why we want to quantify who these people are versus just saying smart or dumb, as if these people, whoever is doing this right now, is smart, and whoever is doing this is dumb. The calculation is based upon institutional order flow and retail order flow. Once you get that, this starts making a whole heck of a lot more sense.

Now, let's take a look at what we're seeing over the last 12 months. And of course, you have the winning and liberation period right here. And let's just take a look here at this particular section for a minute. And I'm going to clean all this off and just make it even just more obvious. That's what we're referring to right here. This cross where retail is buying faster than institutions can sell. Retail moves fast, institutions move slow. And we can see that bottom in here. And people say, "Oh, well, that's because of this and this." It has everything to do with the velocity more than just positioning matters because it tells you how much deeper you can go. It also tells you how much more shallower you can go in regards to what institutions can do. But it's important to get that. So, then if we really look at this going straight across, do we really have anything here that's significant? For a year, you had institutions buying, you had retail kind of buying up here, and then all of a sudden, we get this little cross right here. And if we just drill up from when that cross was, when those two crossed over, and we just drop that pin right there, and we're going to notice something. Well, that kind of precluded when you got to the top, but not really, because then all of a sudden you're dropping, and you're seeing more and more pain. And at the same time that this is dropping, you're starting to turn. And then as soon as you start to turn in here and push up, you start seeing institutions sell. And this is a really important concept because now you're in the exact opposite position. And what's happening is you're having the retail support the market because institutions are puking, but they do it slow, where retail has to get in fast. So, that tends to mark this area perfectly. And then all of a sudden, you just have this dip, and then you recapture that dip, and then you hold this area, and then all of a sudden that solidifies a low. And it solidifies a low because it's been tested, and retail stepped back in, and institutions think it's expensive based upon their metrics, or whether or not they want to own bonds, or private equity, or gold, or whatever those crazy kids are doing. So, this is really helpful to look at. And what I've done is I've just given you the year. So, when we see a test come in and then it rejects that test and comes back, we want to pay attention to that. But if we are to clean all this off for a second and just look at this particular section right here, well, first and foremost, we're coming off a really high peak. And if we come off that peak since we've been here, we will note that we really haven't gone anywhere. But the flip happened in March. And frankly, if you were to mark this off, it happened like a week ago where we started to really see that flip. And from that flip, you've had institutions that are stepping in to buy. And institutions can get really overbought like they did here. And the thing I want to go through with retail is nowhere near oversold. Retail is basically back to a neutral position. And if we did the simplest thing and just drew this across for a moment and then just dropped it, we would argue that this is, you know, roughly one of the lowest levels that retail has been investing for the past 12 months. So, when we see this, clean it all off again, what do we take from this? Well, it means institutions have a longer way to go to buy, and retail can sell a heck of a lot more. So, if we're looking at a situation like this, we have to be really cognizant of what it's telling us. It's telling us that institutions are buying very slowly, which is what they do. And retail is getting out, and they're speeding up. If you look at the trajectory here of that spot versus this trajectory here, you would note that this is slow, this is fast. So, if they're speeding up, do you think institutions are going to speed up, or do you think they're going to say to themselves, "Let it all burn, and we'll pick up the pieces"? They're going to get out of the way.

Now, I want to be very clear about what I'm proposing and what I'm showing here. This is with where we are right now. This has absolutely nothing to do with does Trump come out and cut some kind of deal. Does Iran change this? You have all these different variables over here that are either macro or fundamental on how they're going to change the world, geopolitical undercurrents, all these changing alliances that are starting to develop. There's a lot of moving parts to this. So, what we're looking at right now is a snapshot in time. And any of those could change this and make this come back up. If we achieved world peace, something like that would happen. But this is where we're at right now. And we can go back over time and see this play out consistently.

Now, what I've done is I've taken this snapshot. And you'll see 123121. And what we can see is it doesn't matter so much the placement, but again, the velocity. So, on 12312021, you can see right in here how we're having retail do what? And let me just highlight this so that you can see it. And you can see retail doing what? Absolutely puking as fast as they can to get out, and institutions are rushing in. And well, we see those differences. And what do you start seeing over here? Start seeing retail can't get in fast enough. And you can't see institutions puking. So, what's the difference? Well, what's the difference in the movement from when you see retail getting in during this period of time, and what's the difference when you're seeing institutions over here and they can't get in? You can see the difference in the chart just by looking at that. And that's an important concept because it solidifies what we're stating. But this clearly, that little flip marked the high. Am I suggesting that you're marking the high for multiple years here like we did back then? No. I think this is very different. I think that this is something that was engineered, and I think that over time this can be unengineered. This was engineered as well, but this was something that they just decided to kind of go ahead with, wasn't it? So, you can't really flip too hard here, but you have to look at this and say to yourself, meaning it's really hard to change your stance right now for what just transpired, but it's not where you have to unwind $1.7 trillion of assets that you bought. This is very different. This could come to some kind of economic event a lot faster to fix than what happened here. Very similar to the tariffs, but I think that this is a little harder to unwind. We want to watch this. We want to watch this carefully, and we can go through periods of history and see this play out.

So, if we look at something in my opinion that we'll just take 20,000, and we can see the rally, and we're just hanging up out here on the S&P, and then all of a sudden you get your correction right here, and you can see where we crack, and then there's not really much buying by the institutions. But what happens? Retail panics. That retail panic creates a mark until you get to about here, and then you start seeing retail decide that they want to get back in. But institutions are puking fast enough that retail doesn't really matter, only for a period of time. And then what do we get again? Right in here. We get another cross. Now, from that cross, on that kind of marks your top, coming back to 2000, coming straight across from here. That really marks that level pretty clearly. And then you get these other rallies where you're trying again to see, but institutions are not really biting. And then eventually, you get your big whammy right in here, and that's pretty much the end of it. But I think it's very important that you can go back over two and a half decades and look at this. And again, it doesn't have to be extreme.

So, in front of us, I just took the snapshot and I put the date right here so you can see where you're at. And this is August 4th, 2009. And right in here, you can see your flip. Now, that flip is important. And why this is important is because once that happens, it marks your high because of the velocity of the move, but also institutions just aren't really out there that are going to get that involved. It tends to try to hold, flips, comes back in. Retail buys faster than institutions are selling. And you get a bounce. Institutions are buying, but not faster than what retail is selling. And then what do you get? You get a top. They try here, and then you get ye old flim flam, and it just stays down. You get the flim flam, and then you get a winner, and then when you get a winner, what happens? Retail buys faster than institutions get out. So, institutions are puking, and retail can't get in fast enough, and the market goes up. Now, there is a spread of these, and I've shown that chart that's a spread between smart money, dumb money spread. And I think it's good to look at that spread. I'm not going to do it today. I'm going to tell you why. I'm more interested in understanding the velocity of the move and where we're at on the chart. And the spread doesn't do that. And that's why I'm showing this line by line. This is like when you take apart RSI and just look at directional movement for those of you that do it. To me, it's very similar. Sometimes you want to look at RSI. Sometimes you want to tear directional movement apart.

So, if we look here on 23, 24, and 25, you're going to notice a couple things that should just be jumping out to you. When we keep hitting highs over and over again, and the red keeps staying high, we just keep going higher and higher. When the blue's up top, we keep going lower and lower. So, what do we need? We need retail. You need retail in the market. And you have to get them all giddy and excited. Retail's getting out faster of the market than any time in the past five years right now. And the only time, the only time faster that retail's gotten out in the past five years, just FYI for how fast this is happening. But if you take a look at 23 in that bounce and the flip here, you are. And you can see it right there. The velocity that we're getting in, and then what institutions are doing again, very similar tries, fails, until you get to an area where you can see here, January and February. And this happens right around before all our winning and liberation. And I think that's important to note and to re really solidify this in action. If you are getting out, I don't know why sometimes this thing will work. And then let's make that a little bit bigger. And there it is. And if you look at this level right here, and if you're getting out during something like this, and you're watching the velocity of the movement, and you're getting in on something like this, look how much of this you miss. You miss the entire thing. So, you're not even worried about whether or not you're in or not. You're just out of the way. There's a lot to this, but this is really what I want you to take from it. In my looking at this, you're dropping faster. And let's go back to it here on Jan 26. You're dropping faster than you have in the past. And that's really important to me. And not only are you dropping faster as this, not only is this starting to speed up in this area, but it's doing it in such a way where you have a lot more from here from that 04, we're going to call it, you have a lot more to go that they could puke out here. And I'm not suggesting that it's going to be as ugly as we have here, but just understand there's a lot more ammunition for retail to puke.

What I want to focus on next, and just so you can understand where the concern is. How about margin? How about these crazy cats on margin? And is there going to be a problem there? Now, this is New York Stock Exchange margin debt on a percentage of growth. So, what it's telling you is year-over-year. What are we dealing with? So, there's a couple different ways to look at this, but what I tend to note about this is the speed in which you were at one level and then what level you're on next. So, in other words, and what I mean by this is if you're in a spot here and you bottom out, nobody's on margin, and then you're in a spot here, let's clean all this off. I don't know where that other little one came from. If you're in a spot here, and that's your bottom, and then you would say, well, this is where we're at now. If I come across to here, which is going to be about four years, and then come up, and we look at this one area, and this is important. So, we're going to get rid of this for a second. I think we are. There we go. Yay. And what we want to take from this is do we have other scenarios that are like that before? Well, yeah, we have obviously what transpired here. Sure. Do we have anything else like that? Well, we have this time in the 80s that was pretty insane. Yes, it was. So, it's not unprecedented to have a move that fast. This is where it gets super interesting to me, at least. So, the one chart we just looked at went all the way back to the 60s. Now, I'm just going to take this peak for a minute right here. And actually, you know what? We'll just take where it is right now because it's not, it doesn't really matter. It's pretty darn close. And we're just going to drop this down. And we're going to say, what time ever did you have a growth rate that was above here? And you're going to get a couple things. And that line's drawn wonky. And I'm fully aware of it. So, of all the things to comment on, you don't have to comment on my drawing, but that line's pretty wonky, right? So, let's fix that line. And what we'll do is we'll come to the top of this 25. And then we'll come up to here and we'll mark this area up here. And so that I don't have to hear it in the comments about my line and my inability to draw. We'll get rid of that. And then we can see right in here that that's included in this area. And what we will note about being in this area is this led to why were you on so much margin? Someone say it with me. Because you were playing with the Fed, and the Fed was injecting $1.7 trillion into the market. You guys will remember those things called JPEGs that they were calling NFTs for a while, right? That happened right in there. And then of course, you have the great financial crisis, and then you have this little blip down here, which was still part of the great financial crisis. So, we're clear, the growth rate of margin has moved faster, and the only times in the past 20 years that are comparative to that are the great financial crisis and when Pal decided to inject 50% of all dollars in circulation into the market. All right, got it. This is a fact. It doesn't mean that you're going up. It doesn't mean that you're going down. But you cannot pretend that you did not grow as fast as you did in these other scenarios because it's right in front of you. Look at it.

Now, we used to look at another one of these called net on margin. How much debt do you have on margin as a percentage of market cap, which is still interesting, but here's the problem. When you have these people out there that own billions and billions of dollars of stock, and seven companies are making up 30% or 35%, whatever it is this week, it becomes a problem if those people, if you're not on margin on those names. So, instead of doing that, what starts to make sense is to look at it a little differently. So, Sentiment Trader has this graph, and I actually think they should do it differently, and I'll show you how I really think they should do it, and I think it'd actually be a little more scary to do it my way. I'll show you how I, how I'm looking at this, and we'll combine the two. So, this is FINRA. So, FINRA will go out there and take all the actual formal margin debt that's out there, and then it's going to overlay it to the GDP. Now, why the GDP, and why this is so important, and I just want to show you're going back to '98 on this chart. Why do you care about this, and why is it so important? And I'm going to tell you my opinion why you care and why it's so important. Because it's tied to productivity, the GDP. It's tied to how much money you're making. GDP will only go up so high if inflation is where it is. Whether or not you're going to get a raise is going to be tied to GDP. It just is. Everything's tied to GDP and productivity. And so, when I look at it this way, it's important to me, and I'm going to just state it's important because if I have a certain amount of margin debt, and my income is a certain amount, and I look at what I just paid monthly in margin debt to lose money, you're going to sell. Someone's going to look at that and go, "Well, this is ridiculous. I just wrote a check for, you know, $1,700 for margin or whatever it was for the month, and I'm losing money to do that. This is crazy." And then most people will look at that and say, "I have to decrease that." Which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it's not the only person doing it.

If we take a look at margin debt relative to GDP at all, this is going to go back to '98, coming across. You are at your highest ratio in this period of time. And I'm showing this for a reason. Now, for our purposes, I'm just going to zoom in. And I'm just going to zoom in on the 20-year because I just think it's easier to just do it that way. Let's make this a little bit bigger so that you can see it. And we're just going to come straight across with that four and drop this straight down to there. And you'll see that in this area, that's pretty much the highest that you've been. And you can see that the market's higher than it's been relative to GDP as well. Which means what? It also means that the asset inflation that we're dealing with here on margin versus the asset inflation that you were dealing with here. So, you have to use that competitiveness and comp prep preparedness as well. So, it does mean that from a market cap perspective, yeah, it's definitely lower. But there's a part of this that I just don't think people are getting, and that's because their dollar is not going as far. And this is really where I think it could run into a problem.

Now, as excited as everybody was that we printed all that money, what people don't understand is how it affected them. So, if we come back down to this date, and this is '06 right here. Now, I'll tell you, I created this, so you're not going to really be able to go out and find it, but I'll tell you exactly how I did it. I took real average hourly earnings by all employees from the BLS site, and then I took actual CPI data, and then I inflation-adjusted people are actually making. Conveniently enough, the BLS doesn't do this. Isn't that fascinating? You would think they would care about something like that, but they didn't. So, here's what people are not getting. From '06 up until you get a car, everyone gets a car. Up until that time, your money was actually on an inflation-adjusted basis going up. But since we had itchy from '22 down, you can see that you lost value. And that value that you lost, that's a problem. So, your dollar is just starting to get back to have the same value that it had. And that's really important because what people aren't understanding about that is that ties directly into your margin. Because when you're looking at that margin, it's in, it's obviously in dollars, and it's obviously inflation-adjusted. So, if inflation starts rising again, and I don't know, maybe high oil would make inflation start rising again, what do you think is going to start happening? Well, that's going to put pricing pressure on you. And that pricing pressure where your dollar can't buy you as much is going to tie directly into your margin. And so, I think that this is why you're seeing, this is a personal opinion of this, this is why you're seeing more of that frog in a boiling pot that we saw today in the market. And I'm g I'll tie it all together now, but this is really important because I don't think a lot of people are getting why the smart money is doing what it's doing, why the dumb money and retail is doing what it's doing. And a lot of it has to do with margin, but margin relative to not only ultra high levels to where you are in the GDP, but why that GDP ties directly to what you're earning, and why that earning and that differential that we just went over is actually could help accelerate this to the downside. And you can see the frog in the pot literally boiling, and you don't see people panicking.

Let me give you an example of this. As always, what I like to do is explain to you not only on the technical basis, but the fundamental basis. In other words, not all technicals are created equal. Depends upon where you are fundamentally. To be clear, this is not my graph. This is by Yardini's research. I've been following this guy for two decades. His fundamental work in charts, there's nobody even close. And I really like his work. It's right here. Yardini Research. You can go to his website. A lot of the stuff on there is free. I have no affiliation with the guy whatsoever, but his work's excellent. What I want you to take from this is really very simple. It's going to show forward PE ratios in the MAG7, the large cap, and small midcap. And the reason for this that you want to look at this is, hey, where are we historically right now? Meaning, we have an issue with oil. We have some issues out there. We have two major issues, as you guys are fully aware of. One is what's happening obviously with the Strait of Hormuz. The second is what's happening in the private credit market, and both of those can do real damage. And what we're trying to understand here is the market taking any of this into account right now. So, here's the best way to look at this. We just want to go through them line by line. So, here's the Mag 7 forward PE right now is 25. So, the Mag 7, 25. Is this a high number? Well, in 2020, right? And everything was here because the sky was falling. It was a mess, and we really didn't know what to expect. So, historically, what we're seeing from '23 to '25 is anytime the Mag 7 get to a 32 PE, they get expensive. Now, that's not a coincidence that you're getting to that level and then seeing rejection. What that would mean to us is real simple here. When that group gets up to that 32, you're probably going to see weakness in that group because the fund managers are going to say, "Hey, that's expensive." And then what we could do is come down to this level from '22 on and say, well, whenever we get down to that 22 level, that seems pretty cheap for the Mag 7. And you would just see that historically, and this is just one piece of data that is being done on a fundamental analysis basis. You might actually say we could undercut and get to 21, and that be the cat's pajamas. What I would do with this is I would take this from 2020 on. And I'll tell you why. Because of the amount of capital that's in the market. As we're going to see, the amount of damage that was done by increasing the amount of dollars that have been put in the market have completely changed the way that and what our dollar buys, and you'll see this. So, what we're going to get from this, we're going to dive into that today. Why you need to take from this line over because of it. So, what are we getting here? Is this cheap? Well, it's not cheap, and it's not overly expensive historically speaking, looking at the Mag 7. So, what we would see here is that we could see, let's say, another, let's call it, 15% decline in the price earnings multiple of the Mag 7. Meaning, if the Mag 7 continue to outperform and their earnings grow, then this could stay where it is, and everything would just be fine. That's good.

If we take a look at the large cap forward PE, we're at 21. Now, I like using from here over, and what I just want to say is when we look at the Mag 7, you can see that they're in the middle range. If I take a look at where we are now, and we take a look at the 22, 23 level coming straight across, and I know that's not perfect, but it is what it is, despite what everybody thinks, I'm not perfect. So, what you can see here at 23 is that's really expensive, and we came off of that level. Now, we're at, let's call it a 21. So, let's just take a line and draw it from that 21 over, and we can see that, yep, you're still up there, and from 22, 23, and 24, working into that before we had some liberation and winning. We rallied back up, and now we're in the middle. So, where, where's a level where the liberation and winning kind of took place? And that was roughly 18. And so, I think looking at 18 is, I hate to say it this way, guys, but that's reasonable. So, if I'm to look at the equity risk premium of the market, which I'm not going to get into the actual clinical definition of it, I've gone over it in the past, but if I'm to look at this on a fundamental basis here, do you think you have more risk in the market than you've had previously? And do you think that the global supply chain has been interrupted? And the answer to that, to me, is yes, it has. So, are we priced for the risk that's in the market right now? And I'm just going to give you my opinion. I don't think we are. Now, we could get a headline that could change it. We could get world peace. They could hug it out. Whatever. But that's what we need. We need this to come back. We need the event. Until we have the event, we have to trade what actually is. Meaning, we can't just expect this to get better. It must get better, right? In other words, the thing that we want to happen has to happen. We can't just say, "Oh, if you know this is always going to work out because they're always going to fix it." You can't taco a war. You just can't. So, we have a situation here, and we may have, we may be over a level here. I'm trying to figure out the right way to say this. You might be over a level here where this takes a little longer to resolve than we think it does.

Now, I have some thoughts on this, and we'll get to it in a little bit here, but I want to stick with the PE. And from my standpoint, I can see that the PE could come down into the teens, which means that there is on a fundamental basis here, even if we're growing, which would be great. It doesn't mean we have to drop 10%, but the PE and the growth is going to have to catch up. And when we look at small and midcap names, to me, they're really the most at risk here. When you look at the 600 and the 400, and I know that they're the cheapest, but they really have not come in on this at all. And we're saying we're saying that because, oh, well, they're the cheapest, but historically speaking, this is the top end of those names, of those those midcap names. And so, what we're doing, and what Yardini does an excellent job of, is breaking this all out for us. So, we can look at it and say, okay, well, who's already come in on this? Who's already seen the pain? And the pain's already been seen by the Mag 7, hands down. We can see that we've already come in pretty hard from that top, and we know that we're more near the bottom of that area, and then we could see that the S&P would be second, and then third. If this gets worse, small caps are going to get smoked, in my opinion, and the Russell is going to have a real problem here. And I think that was actually a little bit reflective in what we started seeing with the Russell.

Now, why I spend so much time on one graph and don't blow it over is because these are deep dives. Saturdays are deep dives. Remember that. That's why I always tell people when they subscribe, click all notifications. It always starts with Saturday. So, people that watch these videos, they'll take notes, they'll go back, they'll bookmark certain timestamps. However you want to do it, but there's a body of work here that's research-based that you want to go back and look at as the week plays out. Almost create a playbook with it so that you understand the things that we're going over here, and then you work them so they become actionable. Knowledge is not power, right? It just isn't. Applied knowledge is.

So, we're going to take a second and assume that some people watching this don't know what a PEG ratio is. So, a PEG ratio is price to earnings. So, that you have the PE, and then you look at the growth. So, how do you determine growth? And this is, I think it's important. So, we're going to go over it. Growth is determined, to me, by the revenue growth or earnings growth. That's really what you're looking at. For me, I think you should be looking at the earnings growth because the PE is looking at the price to earnings to growth. Meaning, if your earnings are growing at 25% and the PE is 25, your PEG ratio is one. If your PE is 25 and your growth, meaning your earnings growth is 25. So, 25 on the PE, 25 on the growth, you're at one. PE below one, stocks undervalued. This is of all the things to look at for me. I like looking at cash flow and seeing those areas when I look at fundamental analysis, but PEG just makes it super simple. If you're looking at something and it's trading at 2x or 3x, you have an issue. If you're at one, and people are like, "Oh, it's overvalued because the PE is here." I don't really care where a PE is on a stock. To be candid, I care where the PEG is on a stock. Some people say, "Oh, it's trading at 50 times earnings." If it's growing at 100% year-over-year on the earnings, do you really care, or is it cheaper? It's actually cheaper, in my opinion, but that's if you're trading growth names. To look at this from an index standpoint, below one suggests stock may be undervalued. Above one suggests might be overvalued.

So, now that we know the definition of what a PEG ratio is, we're just going to take a second here and look at what we're seeing. So, the PEG here is suggesting that the market historically on where we are from 2020 over, and I want to suggest again that you use this level. And we will get into this on why the dollar, and why I'm doing this with the dollar, and why I'm suggesting to look at the world from here over versus to look at the world here over when we start looking at certain valuation metrics. And it's because of all the money that's in the market that's swirling around thanks to itchy. So, right now you're at, let's call it a 1.15 or 1.17, something like that, right? Is that too high, too low? Well, from our standpoint, that's pretty cheap historically on where we've been since 2020 over. If I just took this and drew this straight across, and we took this 1.1, and then from there, let's just do something different. And what I'll do is I'll take from that 1.2 over, and then we'll just go up. And you can see, let's not even take the outliers. We'll just take from here over. Where's the majority of this chart? The majority of the chart is up in here. So, historically speaking, this is cheap. Why does that matter? Because if we bounce, and we always bounce, it's just a function of are we down another 10 or 20% before then. If we bounce, the bounce will probably be pretty swift. If we got under one, and you bounce, the bounces are vicious. They are absolutely vicious. So.

If you got under here, let's just say that we came down another 10 or 15% on the market and the growth stays where it is, then and that's a big if. But if you got to one of these levels and you go back historically and look at time, the ones I'm circling here at 07, 118, the first batch of winning and liberation and then obviously the pandemic. If you look at these levels, historically speaking, this is exactly where you know you load the boat, so to speak, if you're a long-term guy.

Now, a lot of people will look at this and they'll overlay something like China with it or other sectors. Later in this video, I'm going to just give you a a country that is insanely cheap for what's going through right now. And once you see it, you you really can't unsee it. And so, for me, looking at the forward PE ratio of the Russell 2000 here, I just want to break it out because they do a great job here. They break it out by what the Russell is, by growth, and by value. So if we are to look at the market as a whole here, we'll see that the Russell 2000, it's up there. But look at the growth sector and where you are on growth. So Russell 2000 and the growth here is really up there. Like we're we're really setting up for that growth to come in. So if this continues, my point is that small caps are most at risk. Small cap growth is most at risk. And I think that you'll rotate in that fashion. From my standpoint, the value historically, value names that are in the Russell are probably not going anywhere.

So, if we're to look at the market right now and say, where do we really want to put capital? Where does this make sense? Historically speaking, the Russell 2000 value is actually cheaper or right around it's actually cheaper a little bit than the S&P 500 where we take a look at the growth, you're you're way up there. So, this growth to value chart is definitely something that you want to look at. We're going to get to that in a second here. But I think the most important thing to understand here is that value historically is still cheap. It's still cheap by about 20 to 25% over where you are. Historically speaking, growth always outperforms. But this is why you're certain seeing certain names rally. And I'll give you a couple names to take a look at here in a second. But I really do think that you have to get your noodle around the fact that growth here on the Russell is you're up there. And this could come in pretty hard.

Now, let's overlay what we know about fundamental analysis and let's show it in real time on how you're dealing with it technically. So, if we understand that the risk premium of the market and then we know that the risk premium is higher than what we're expecting in the market, then we have to understand that we're not the only people that get that. And as we saw the winning and liberation or however you want to refer to this, when we saw all this happening, what we noticed was that we were way overpriced, meaning the market itself was overpriced. And I talk about this concept a lot. It's called reflexivity. And really what it boils down to is, and I'll just draw it out super quick, and I'm trying to tie a lot of education into this, and I think it's important. Forget this chart where this is, but if this is what the expectations are of everybody, and this is really where the outcome is, and this is where everybody is on their expectations, but this is really what the outcome is. That difference is reflexivity. Between that the movement between what the expectations are and the outcome where everybody is in between these two is how you make your money. That's exactly how you make your money. So if everybody believes that the expectation is the outcome, but this is the outcome, then you have something. If everybody thinks that this is the expectation, right, but everybody really believes that they don't really believe it, like the boy that cries wolf, then all of a sudden you're not going to make as much money, right? I did a whole video on this. I should really redo the concept because it's the entire basis on how I trade.

So, if I'm looking at something like AOI, which we bought and we cleaned house on a bunch of stuff because we saw this coming. We rode this up and we did very well with this trade. We bought it in the 70s on earnings. And I really like the name a lot. And I don't think that this stuff's going away. But we have to understand that the price that they're placing these things at now, the risk premium of this name is not the same as it was three, four days ago. And so that's why it's dropping. It has nothing to do with the company, but it has to do with the valuation metrics that we just went over. So what we did in the community, I'll drop this in real quick, was start blowing out of things. Things that I really don't want to blow out of candidly, but we locked this in at 116. We just got out of it. We were up $40 on that trade from where we were in at. And I know people like, "Oh, wait for it to come back." Well, now it's 96. How's that working out for you? It's not, right? So, you have to act on trade what's actually happening, not what you want to have happen. Right? And then we locked in COR. We locked in GLW. We locked in GEV. So, when we look at these and locking in these gains, am I happy that I'm locking them in? I am to the point of get me out, get my risk out, right? Some of them are standing exactly where they were. So, not all of them are like automatic home runs from where we got out of them. But the thing is, you have to look at it from an entire perspective. So, something like GEV and getting out of that and then watching it down 45 points the next day, has the company changed? Has the growth changed? Nothing's changed about this, but the overall macro landscape has changed, which is why we always go back to everything that we do is the stool. Everything is that stupid stool because what it boils down to is we have macro. What is going on? Who's affected by it? When do we act? So, we don't really want to put ourselves. We'll make this one super. Well, we're not going to get too nuts. That's nuts. Who can sit on that? No one can sit on that. Maybe it's a stool for giants. Hold on. So sometimes you're leading on the back leg, sometimes you're leading on the front leg. You don't wait for the technicals to change on a macro event. So I'll just say that again. You don't wait for the technicals to change on a macro event because you're going to be the you're going to be the bag holder. You have to move. You have to understand like, hey, things are changing here. I need to get out. So we get out of these names. Doesn't mean I'm not going to get back into them. But this tells you also by looking at those fundamentals and the macro because we all know what's changed. Clearly, we don't have to spend a lot of time on the fact that there's a conflict in Iran right now, right? So what's what do we do about this and what's important about this? Well, we want to look at these names. We want to come back to these names. We don't want to throw them out, but right now the game has changed.

So what's working versus what's not working? Well, from our standpoint, that's super easy to spot. So if you go and take a look at VUG divided by VTV, which is growth versus value, you'll see that growth is getting smoked and value is actually not getting smoked. So let's just show it this way. Value is actually breaking out. Value actually pulled down. Now, we could do a couple things here and get goofy. We could see that the value versus growth actually got worse. But then it worked it off and it's already turning again. We could chart this and we could put moving averages on it. See, you couldn't even get to the 50-day before you started turning again and they started buying value. And I think there's a reason for this. I think that one of the reasons we stopped down here was we heard, oh, we're this is almost over. We're almost done. But when you look at crude oil, you know, that again, if we go with the, you know, the boy that cries wolf, crude oil does not think that this is done. Crude oil is actually setting up to break out. And so we have to understand what we're being told versus what's happening are two different things. That's macro. Then we have to overlay the fundamentals of those companies with it. And then we have to find out where they're putting their capital. And so one of the things that I noticed was this, and I'm not the only one that's noticed it, but they're buying the supermarkets. So the supermarkets are companies that you know you're trading at a dollar another $1.35 and you just see the earnings and obviously this one's been through the ringer with mergers. But if we go and take a look at this why the whole market's falling apart and I'm just going to show you this on the monthly. This goes back to 1968. I think that's when it was out there, '68. You're hitting all-time highs in the middle of all this. So Kroger is breaking out. Now this is one that we already own. But if you go and take a look at like Sprout Farms here, this is the monthly. There's your 55-month moving average. See how you hit it and now you're making your first higher high since you came all the way off of this level. Take a look at this on the weekly and you start seeing that you're back above the 12 and the 22 on the weekly. Drop the 200 here. Drop it like it's hot. Oh, look. It's a Christmas miracle. So, right in there is the 200 moving average. And if you're in the community, you know how much I love a 200-week moving average. You're sitting in here and you're flipping that and you're setting up to push. Why are they buying these names? Well, some people would say, well, it's the tariffs. It's this. It's that. No, it's it's they're buying value names. They're buying outright value names that are not really tied to anything that's going on. Oil and gas are going to affect everything and energy is going to affect everything. But when you have names like this that people truly want to own, they know that these names are going to be consistent earners because they know that people are going to have to buy what? They're going to have to buy food. Now, maybe they're not going to this specific store, but maybe they're going to a Kroger's, right? So, when we start to understand this, we can really benefit from it. Other names to look at that are in the space. You might start looking at, you know, the crack spread, which is the difference between oil and gas, those names, and you'll start seeing some of those names that are just absolutely ripping and hitting highs, right? So, all those refiners, they're always very interesting when stuff like this goes on. But is that really a value play? I would say no. And people are going to ask this, that's why I'm throwing it in. I would say no. To me, that's not really a value play. That's a play where we're looking at something and saying that would be in the playbook. So, as the sum lines, they might get hit. Just like we might say that if we're taking a look at staying in these other names that I've been short, you know, the tankers and there's a reason for that. We do it in another video why these names are going to get hit so hard. Uh, it's not really rocket science. We covered it a little bit on a Wednesday. But you might get to a point here on that playbook where these actually reverse when this ends. And there's a lot of reasons for that. But what we want to take from this is as everyone's looking at housing and housing is like, "Oh, I got to get out of housing. We have to get out of housing." Well, the person that actually goes through housing and starts looking at the ones that are trading at book value when this ends there, that's a value name. So, if you start looking through those and when we started to do this previously, we went through all these home builders and we were pointing at this one out like a while ago that it was trading under book value. Someone comes out and just bought the darn company, right? And you can see that they just bought it out, right? So you want to start going through those names and looking for companies that are trading under book value because when this starts to turn, they could be names that you start seeing. Names like Harley-Davidson trading under book value and the list goes on and on, right? You can also build the playbook and understand that people are going to start the cruise lines will start coming in and start rallying again. If you look about that from a playbook perspective, from a value perspective, you're probably not there. So I think that's really where you want to go with this. You want to look at the value side of the trade. And I think you're better off doing that. When this stops, people are going to take a breath and they're going to look at home builders and say, "Wait a minute, these names are trading and certain ones are going to be trading at one time's book value and they might be the names that you want to go through and start building." So, you start understanding that like start working and building that base up. So, you have a list of names because I think that that's where it's going. But right now, what they're doing is they're just rallying the wagons. They're buying these kinds of names. You start taking a look at XLP. XLP worked the whole way down. You came down to that 55-day and so people are starting to look at names like Costco again and say, "Well, that's not breaking down." Or they'll start looking at things like Walmart, for example, and say, "Well, geez, that's not breaking down either." Why? These become value plays. Do we think that Target's a value play? No. I would say that that's more of a turnaround story. So, you want to be very specific about it, but you want to look for what are the value names that people know are going to have consistency right now. Hope that's helpful.

And those that understand this like the important thing about this is once you get this you can start taking the other side of these. So when we saw AOI and we understand that it's going to start breaking down. All we did this day, the same day that we sold our position, we understood that this was going to start becoming under a lot of pressure and that these names, these lower float high risk because they are high risk because they have these high growth rates that could be disrupted easier, right? It goes back to macro, fundamental, technical. You can actually take the other side. So what we actually did here is we actually bought puts when we closed out. So, we actually went net short knowing that other people if this didn't get better in 24 hours that they were going to have to panic or they were going to get out. They were just going to lock in their year. Think about it from an investor standpoint or from a hedge fund standpoint. Like they don't want to lose their year because of what's going on with the trade. So, they're just going to lock in their gains on their big winners and they're just going to sit this out and that presents opportunity. And here's an example of that. This was not something that I fundamentally had a problem with, but I knew what they were going to do. So, and this is just John. John types everything out in the community when I'm trading because I can't type trade and talk and sing at the same time. So, if I look at something like this, you'll see that, okay, we're up here. We rallied and then when we started cracking in here, I bought the 100 puts, we bought a bunch of them, and because they were so cheap. And my thought process was if this exacerbates into Friday, who's going to want to hold over the weekend? You're just not going to want to hold anything over the weekend because you don't know what's going to happen. And the news flow is worse. But as the trade starts working, I just tripled it and we maxed out or I maxed out. Everyone should do what they're comfortable with on the position and then we just sat with it. I picked off some when we were up like 50%. But the goal was to stay in the trade and then I actually traded stock against it that day. So I was actually able I actually wound up breaking even on the long. But when you the stock gaps down here, you can actually buy stock against the puts, right? So you actually have a free trade. So if we rally back up, you can actually make way more money. I really do want to do videos on this kind of stuff because I think it's fascinating. But what we wound up doing on that on the hedge or what I wound up doing was just blowing out the hedge and I just stayed net short eventually and I made zero on the long and 393 was the rest that I closed out and so we're up over 300% on that trade. It has nothing to do with anything more than understanding the technicals and that how the risk is being assessed at that particular time. It has nothing to do with whether or not these companies make wires or marmalade. Zero. It is all about the risk.

Now, I stated earlier in this video that I would give you a country that I like a lot personally and that I have a stake in, and I do believe that when you see some of these numbers, it's just absolutely staggering. So, people will look at the South Korean stock market right now, which is heavily because they have to import all of it. It's pretty crazy when you look at Southeast Asia or any part of Asia, I should say it that way, and you see this, it's pretty staggering. But what does this really mean for us? I'm going to give you a piece of advice that I've given in the community. This is when you want to sit down with a pen and a piece of paper and you want to write out scenarios. And those scenarios that you want to write out are going to be really simple. You're going to. You know what? Let's do it. Let's just do it this way. Hold on. So, I'm just going to give you an example. I just pulled up a Google doc real quick because I think it's going to be easier to do this. So, what you want to do is just go playbook. And let's make this bold. Yay. So, you can see it better. You guys should be able to see that. Let's actually blow that sucker up even. So, you want a playbook. And what's this the playbook? Let's just call it the SH playbook. And this is going to be the Strait of Hormuz playbook. And when this ends, and they're going to say ending. And so, what you want to do there is go when this ends, what names are going to drop? What names are going to rally? Right? And that's all you're doing. So, what names are going to drop? Well, defense names are going to drop. So, D, FEN, ITA, and I'm just going to give you an example of how to do this. And there's a litany of other names, right, that are going to drop as well. What names are going to rally based upon this? And then you're going to list those names, and it's going to be the names that now have access to the free flow of oil and crude as they did what happened, right? So to me, it's something like EWY, might be EWT, Taiwan as well, and other names that are going to continue to do this. And then you would go, well, what names came in because of this? Well, Dow's going up because of this. Nell's going up because of this. So, they might come in and then you just go through the names that are going to rally. Well, the whole equity market might rally because of it as well. So, I'm not going to go through them all, but what you want to do is a little bit of a playbook. Like, literally sit down and I will spend at least an hour on this at least going through it so that when it happens, I'm not running around like a chicken with my head cut off. I have all my levels marked off. I'm prepped. I'm ready for it. This is where I'm going with this. System. What I'm presenting to you right now is one of those ideas from my playbook. All right, that's much easier to do it that way. Cool.

So, for me, looking at South Korea, I'm sitting here and looking at right now, where am I? Well, the low end of the range is a seven, meaning seven. I'm at a 12. They're suggesting that you could have a 17, which is one of the highest that you've had. Well, there's reasons for this, and this goes back to the PEG ratio, and we're not going to get into all of this, but I just want to show you a couple things. So this is South Korea revenue per share. So revenue per share right now is higher than any time that you've had in 25 years. And when you look at the earnings per share, just so people understand this, because I don't truly think people are getting this, that the earnings per share year over year in South Korea are up over 100%. Now, does this decline because you don't have access to oil? Well, yeah, it's an issue. Like, we can't pretend that it's not an issue. So, we need that to fix. But if you were to go look at this and say, "Well, gee, I wonder what the PEG ratio is of the earnings of an entire country growing at 100% and the PE right now at 12." And people will say to me, "Well, that's not going to last." Blah. Well, you're all smarter than me. I can only trade what's in front of me, right? That's all I can do. I can only trade what's in front of me. And right now, I have an index that's growing at 100% if they turn the spot back on, and it's trading at 12 times earnings. Let's take a look at the chart. So, let's talk about EWI and South Korea ETF because when you look at this, it looks gross and it does look gross and it does look like it can come in and that's actually a great thing for people that know the names that they want to buy. And this is a great example of something that I truly want to get involved with and I do think that this is definitely an area that we have to pay attention to. But let's just do the simple things. Let's just look at EWI for a second and let's just really look at how this is playing out. Well, 2142 is going to be the lower end of that area, right? So, that's definitely something that we're going to want to pay attention to. Are you going to break that? Are you not? I would argue that you are highly correlated to the oil trade. Very highly correlated. So, as the oil trade continues to break down, they are just getting out of anything that is EM emerging markets. And you can see this whether it's EWI or EWT, any of this stuff is just really breaking down as they try to straighten this out. Eventually, I believe that it will get straightened out, but what that straightened out looks like remains to be seen. So, we could be down here for a while. We could break, we could get lower. We could come all the way down to 95, 96. People don't think it can ever get that bad. And you could trade at five times earnings. You can actually get absolutely smoked here. And if you've been trading for a while, you know this is exactly what happened in April, right, when we had all that win liberation. So, what does this do for us? It presents an opportunity in my opinion for something like this. So for me looking at this, if I can get back down to 96, 97 and it took a month, let's say this went on for like a month or whatever, I would be very interested in this. So I have my names that I'm looking at that I think make a lot of sense. You guys should do what you're comfortable with. A lot of people are trading around this KO ru. Yeah, I mean these things can move. When they get moving and they motor, they really motor. Here's the larger issue with something like this is if I go sideways, this thing's going to bleed out. What I like to do with this during the day or for a day or two is actually if I think that market's going to be weak, I'll actually short this. It's not the easiest thing in the world to short candidly because it's nothing for this thing to move, you know, 100 points. But if you can catch it right, it's just an absolute utter beast. I do think understanding the fundamental side of the market and understanding where the value is when this turns around and creating your own playbook, I think it's a super smart idea. I do want to leave you with one other thing that I think super important to get. If we start looking at software and people start thinking that you have a value trade here because we discussed value, I think that this is a value trap and I I'm going to have to do another video on this. But if the problem why I think that IGV is becoming a value trap is the growth is predicated upon private credit. Morgan Stanley just cut their private credit. JP Morgan just cut their private credit according to software. Morgan Stanley came out and said, "We're not doing redemptions right now." They're not doing redemptions on their fund for private credit. I think they cut it from people wanted 14% out of their private credit fund. They said, we'll do seven. Blackstone came out and said, "We're going to buy our own fund back." And I'm not saying that these names are all that they're all going to zero. Far from it. There's going to be a huge opportunity when this is over to get involved in these names because people always want to make money. So these companies will be back with something new. But you're seeing Blackstone do the same exact thing. BlackRock do the same exact thing where they're saying we're slowing redemptions or we're halting redemptions. My best short of the year has been this OWL who is extremely tied to what's going on out there. And if you do some research on this and I'm not going to spend an inordinate amount of time on it, but I do want to point this out because I know guys are short this one too. And when I run these things out like here, and I'll just show this. So that's the mark. And you can just see that there's this becomes a buy area in here. And it doesn't mean it holds. It could absolutely 100%. Just because it's a buy area doesn't mean that you can't break it. Of course you could, but it does mean that some of these names you're going to want to pay attention to. You're really going to want to understand, do they have software private credit exposure or do they not? Or they are they swept up in, you know, the fury, for example. You can see you had a buy right in here and then all of a sudden they just ran right through that like buckshot. But you want to be aware of that. So something like Al has huge exposure to this on a percentage basis to the other guys and eventually these things will find some kind of bottom, but IGV becomes a trap. So, these were my the names that I was really shorting on Friday, the Oracles when they rallied, the CRM crowd. And I want to be real clear, it's not easy right now. It's not really easy to put these names on. And I really do like some of this stuff longer term, but the private credit sides of the market is going to scare people. And understanding that is what the trade is, right? That's really where the trade is. It's understanding that the the fear is going to lead to this. So, when you see something like an Oracle rally to like, take a look at this. I mean, it was perfect. I actually was long this on the earnings call. I thought the earnings were fantastic. But you went right to the 55 and you rejected and you can see it right on a five-day or on a five-minute chart here. Look at this. So that was your 55 marked off. You ran right to it, rejected, rallied up again. And then you know that who buys in the first half hour, hour of the market, it's retail. They get all giddy, right? Oh, I got to get in. I got to get in. And then wham, you know, here you go. Congratulations. You're the owner. So you just want to be very cautious of that. We'll see what develops over the weekend and we'll go from there. That is it.