Transcription
Another wild day. Another great move. We have a lot to cover. A short time to do it. We're going to start with the indexes. We have to talk about Amazon and what's going on with Capex. Really very interesting. And we're going to talk about the missteps that are happening with a lot of these companies. Why silver is plummeting and we are watching Bitcoin fall to earth. So, let's get into it.
If we just take a look at the S&P, we can see our key level right here. This 8, what are we? 6787. 6787. Let me just see where we are here for a sec. Let's zoom in on this and see what's actually happening as we're doing this live. All right, let's mark this little level off right here. So, this is pretty interesting actually because you can actually see around that 11:00 the rally up over that 6823 the test the test the test and then you can just see the break and then how we fell apart and where you are around 6:30. What's interesting about this and the break right around here this is when all let's go to a one for a second and dig into this. This is right around when you start all your conference calls. And once those conference calls started, it actually started getting worse. It wasn't really getting better uh for a lot of these companies. Quite frankly, it should have, but it really was not getting better for them. And I really think that that added to it. And there's a couple missteps that we're going to talk about really with Amazon as well. But most importantly, what we need to focus on is where does this put us? And it puts us in in the crosshairs of a couple places. So, a couple of the levels that we gave on Tuesday, uh, they hit. I'm still really liking certain sectors of the market, but you have a lot going on out there. And, you know, some some we might have to get like tinfoil hat on a little bit here.
Um, first and foremost, just with the ES, you're trying to break out, you failed, and this was Thursday and Friday. You follow through and then you have another week and you're just unable to get anywhere. Now, since then, what has transpired? And you can just see the actual breakdown today and the actual rounding of this. To be super technical, when you break these, you look for the next one and then you think about this being your kind of support area. I you're starting to see a pattern here too, especially with this administration. And I just want to show you how this administration's been playing out. You know, we're watching since the admin came in and you see us in like February, mid-February, and we're getting a lot of the same action and then out of nowhere we just got winning and liberation. you know, it's starting to feel and it's starting to shape up a lot like that. Now, I don't know what winning liberation 2.0 would look like. And actually, we had winning in liberation in 18 back here. So, I'm not really sure what winning and liberation's going to look like, but I do think that something is out there that can drive us down. There's something more coming the way that this market's acting and and we're going to go through some of it in a little bit, but I really like what these large cap companies are doing. And longer term, I do think the NASDAQ's going to break out. I I still think it I think you're in a situation here where you you might go lower first. I don't know that you're going to break out on a Tuesday. I don't think I ever really said Tuesday's the day we're going to break out. We're going to get to this in some detail. Um what's going on and some of the levels that trigger today and this is this is super important. But I do want to just go back to this for a second and go to the ES and say you have broken and if we just look at this and we're going to have to do a lot of technicals tonight just to get through Friday tomorrow and then Saturday we'll do a lot of more of the deep dive which we always do on Saturdays. So if you don't subscribe go ahead.
So if you watch the level here and you watch the break and you so the fan is dropping now you undercut the fan and now here's where you're at. This is really what you're looking for. You have a level right in here. Maybe you hold it, maybe you don't. Uh you're going through these levels like butter. And when when you see major tech names going through those levels like butter, you always want to put the brakes on to an extent. And and I'll show you what I mean by that. So when we have something like a Microsoft and yeah, we're going to do it. We're going to go on a tangent. But when you have something like a Microsoft and I had a really nice short on this and then I closed it because I'm like surely that's the end of it. And I'll show you why I I'll show you why I thought that in a second here and then I'll show you why I was wrong. Uh but what you're seeing at this particular level is this crack. And this crack right here, that's a gap fill. You should at least held. And let's just take a look at that and and I'll show you that and you can see it for yourselves and just how you played in that area cuz surely you're going to gap fill. It's Microsoft. It's a trillion dollar company. No, you hit and then you broke and that was it. It was a gap fill for ants. You hardly held and you already cracked it. That's not great. I've seen great before. That's not how it looks. So now this puts us in this really weird position and I'll show you this and we're going to spend more time on it. But when we start getting to the 200 weekly moving average that's significant like that is you don't want to break these you know if you start breaking like 200 week moving averages and and you stay below them you have secular breaks and my hope is that we get something like we had with winning and liberation 2.0 and here and then obviously this was the correction of when you know JPEGs became NFTs.
So, what we have to do is watch this super closely, but we're cracking some of these. And I would really be remiss if I don't point this out because the thing about these videos, they are information and education on what I'm using to make decisions, right? That's why I do all this. And it's not a function of, oh, look how smart I am. I'm right. Because really, no one knows what's going to happen. You, you know, God plans or man plans, God laughs, is what the saying goes, right? So, if we if we take a look at this level, I said it backwards, but I didn't. So, if we look at this level right here, you're sitting on it, but you're already through it. And this is a great place. Literally, if you buy in these areas, it's a great place. If you looking out years, you do very, very well. There's one time where you had to wait a very long period of time to come back from that. And it was.com. And I'm not going to get too into this because we're going to do it on Saturday, so you're going to want to watch. But here, you broke in 01 and you didn't get back over to 03. But if you take a look at this and obviously how much we've come in on, you know, they're really just crushing this thing and this was something I was short yesterday or I was short this week and I covered it. I'm like, well, I am at 140. Like, where are we going here? You know, it's we're right at that key level. Surely we're going to hold. We went through it. Now, I know we're going on a tangent here, but it's to me it's an important one, so we're going to stick with it. If we take a look at IGV, you what's happening now with anthropic, again, cover it on Saturday. So, if you want to get into anthropic and what the heck's going on and why these names are dropping essentially, you know, people are assuming that you can code for a lot cheaper and we've been talking about this for some time and how this is really changing the landscape. So, I don't really understand why people are so shocked by it. But, um, if you're really seeing here how advanced people think this is getting, you can just see we're we're literally falling off a cliff here.
Why is this important? It's important for a couple reasons. this as much as fear gets overblown so does greed. So greed gets overblown and so does fear. And so what we saw the other day was this and again this is super important but this is the most volume you've ever had. And so to me looking at that I'm I'm going and just saying okay well this is the most volume literally we've ever had like ever ever forever ever. And so like if you come here and click on it right sometimes you just have to do that. Sometimes you just have to click on it and you see like that's it. So usually the largest bars are exhaustive selling not so fast and this is what's happening now. So you have this, you know, mother of dragons pattern up here that's basically looking at you and saying, "Yeah, that's it." And if we break here, you know, you have some real there's some real damage here, like real damage that's happening. Now watch this. If we go through this and put on the 200E and yep, we did go off on a tangent, but you're at the 200week moving average, which is what you hit during the pandemic, which is what you hit here after you went through, you know, JPEGs or NFTs. Um, and then flipping through there, and you have not been below that for years. So, what's starting to happen here is we're wondering, and this is where they're going with it. We'll dive into this on Saturday's video when we do those deep dives, but what what's going on here, and why do you care about this? I'm glad you asked. You know the fear and the greed meter flip is software and you guys can always drop your comments in on this. Is software going the way of the dodo? Does software become a fax machine? Is it be is it going to become a carriage? In other words, is this is anthropic the model, you know, is is this a Model T? I I don't think it's that cut and and we're going that way. Like in other words, do we not need the horse anymore? Do we not need buggy whips anymore? Um, you know, I'll date myself and say other people's money if anybody ever watched that movie. Great movie, Danny DeVito. But what you want to see here with this level is are we going to hold or are we not? I'm going to just tell you like where my head is. No, we're not going to hold. So, I I wish I had better news, but I I don't see any of this holding. The only thing I see holding is me closing my shorts because of the obscene amount of money I'm making in a short period of time and thinking this is ridiculous and it's got to pull back. And this is from someone's been doing this for 27 years. I mean, you just don't implode like that. Well, I'm saying you don't do this. And then people will say it's an overreaction. There's no such thing. It's just the reaction. the function is how much more fear is out there that Oracle is going to have to go back to doing I don't know whatever they did before they sold software and and that's kind of where this is all heading. You know what's crazy about this is the CDS's for people that actually know this uh the CDS's are only really pricing in like a 12 or 8 or 12% chance of default. I think it's not like there's a 50% chance of default or anything like that. I mean it's it's pretty crazy. So it doesn't really matter. And this is what happens. And I did go off on a tangent but we're going to stay with it cuz it's important.
So you have names like Al, right? And they do private credit. Now I I think it's something like 8 to 12% of their book is software. 8 to 12% of their book is software. You're at 1163. You're imploding because of software. So they're really literally losing all that market cap because of their software book. I mean, if you if they just said we sold our software book for zero and that's what the size of it was, it's kind of crazy when you think about it. And so what this does is it presents opportunity. You can see it with KKR. You can see it with Apollo. There's going to be a lot of opportunity like this and people will say poor Qua and I will just point this out when you look at something like Nvidia and we went through this period of 22 23 nobody wanted it and then they got washed out nobody wants Nvidia Nvidia no one needs chips anymore right and then all of a sudden what's AI and then you have a move like this the question is how long is that going to go on for and I think that this is really important because I'm going to give you the answer nobody has a freaking clue we have no idea how how far this is really going to drop because I can tell you right now that this is one of the fastest drops ever in IGV in history. Period. End of story. And I'm talking about someone again. I've been trading a while. It's this is faster than anything we dealt with back here. And and that speed, I think a lot of that speed is because of what people think they know and they don't have a clue. In other words, oh, I better get out because we don't need any software anymore. And that's going to present opportunity when it sets up. But, you know, that doesn't stop you or preclude you from having dumpster fires of the day. And there's a bunch of those that we have to go over. But first, we go over this. And I think that this is really, really important for people to get.
Now, you're going to have to go, we're going to just call it RA trading after dark or we're going to call it tinfoil hat hour. I don't care what you call it, but you're going to have to just indulge me here for a second and put on the tinfoil hat. So, we all know that these files were released. I'm not even going to talk about the name of the files, who's who's in the files or anything, but with all these files released, there is a ton of mention of crypto, a ton of mention of who created Bitcoin, what agencies may or may not be involved with Bitcoin, as well as Ethereum, as well as XRP, as well as any of these of any of these crypto names. And I don't really want to get into this, but I don't really have a choice anymore. So, I I've been talking about this for some time where technically Bitcoin is completely utterly broken and it is the same exact pattern that we had here. If you watch these videos, I've been talking about this for months that this is going to happen. I didn't think about it from like I didn't think about it from the standpoint of these files and this coming out, which actually to me is more damaging because I'm going to tell you why it's more damaging. Because what it does is it puts into question the entire thesis of crypto. The entire thesis of crypto goes out the window. And I'm not going to say are the files right or the files wrong. I I don't care. Again, what we're dealing with is this. And you're dealing with a pendulum. And I'll show you what I mean by this. And it swings. So you have a pendulum, right? And you're going to have to bear with me and it's going to be ugly, but we're going to do it together. So you have one side of that pendulum, right? Which we're going to call over here. And we're going to call this greed. And then you have the other side over here and you have fear. And then you you have everybody that thinks what they know versus what they don't know on that side of fear. So not only do you have fear and greed, you also have do they really even know what the heck they're even talking about, right? How much of the information on the fear side is actual accurate and how much is not, right? Like did someone just yell sell and then everybody sells? So what we're going to do, and you're just going to have to bear with me. We're going to find that. Is this the drawing one? This might be the drawing one. Stay with me. That's not the drawing one. We almost had it. Almost there. You know what we'll do? We're going to use this because this will be better. We use the arrow. And so what happens is as we swung up here and everyone's going, "This is going to be great. Save us BlackRock. Turn it into an ETF." And everyone cheered for them. You know, take our sovereignty away from us. And then from here, what happened? All right. Well, we're not going to get any of the the funds. Well, they're not going to do this fun. Well, we're not getting a sovereign fund, but you know, this state in Texas might buy it. Blah blah blah. And just vote for me. And then all of a sudden, all of a sudden, these ETFs don't come out. Right now, we're over here where we're reading about the fact that this thing may have been actually created or at least influenced by a government. And that's where you're at when you start going through some of those files. And I'm not going to get into it, but that's where you're at right now. So, when you come in here today with your fancy crypto and you think like you're all cool and you're wearing your beanie and you're drinking your oatmeal latte or whatever the hell you kids drink, right? And then you realize like, oh, I'm actually I own something that the man owns and it's wrapped in a fee owned by BlackRock. Okay. Right. You're winning. You're fighting the system. Great job, buddy.
So, what does that mean? It means that people are going to get disenfranchised with this. I really truly believe that that's what you're saying. So, where where do we go with this? Well, let's just talk about it technically and I'll get off the afterd talk and we'll stop putting on the tin foil hat. Okay. 48K is probably where you're heading. If you had to look at this and say, where would you go? 48K. I don't know that that holds. That's where my head is right now. I don't know how they're going to come out and stabilize it. And I don't know that BlackRock or any of these guys want to stabilize it. Why would they? Why wouldn't they just kill it, control it, let it come down, buy more of it, ramp it up, and then sell it to retail again? Wash, rinse, repeat. Like, what is the what is their hurry to defend this in any way whatsoever? There it's in their best interest to have it crash and have it come down to these levels. And we've done this before, but if you measured off these levels from up here down, you're going to see that this one's 76%. And people say, "Well, that couldn't possibly happen." No, not to you. And then we're going to put this one here. And then you're gonna look at where that one troughed out at. And that one troughed out at 84%. Right? So where does this end? If you took the two of those and you average those together and then you'd come all the way down to here and you'd go, "All right, well that puts you right around that 76% which is 30,000." So maybe 30, 25, 30 you could get to. And the same people that are going to tell you that can't possibly happen are the same people that are probably telling you to buy it at 125. So, you have a credibility issue with something that you're trading off a USB. And until that stabilizes, you're going to have an issue. And I I just want to get this out there when I talk like this, this is what my opinion is. You should do what you're comfortable with. But I've watched these things play out year after year after year. No different. It's just a they just do different rappers. It's like the other day I was talking about Ethereum. I said, "You're going back to 1400." When we were up here, we were shorting it. Why? And the reason is because there was nobody left to buy it. Once BMNR and SBET once they shoved this down everybody's gullet and like oh you have to buy a treasury so that you could pay us the staking fees and that way we can make money and everyone went yay and they did it right and now they're wondering what they own. I'm short them by the way if you can't tell.
So when we look at this you have a massive credibility issue here with a part of the market and I don't know how this gets solved. I I truly do think it does get solved. I I'm not a Bitcoin is a zero, Bitcoin is a fraud. I think Bitcoin was heavily influenced and I think there's a lot of questions around it, but I don't I'm not thinking about it that way. I mean, you could even go down the rabbit hole and say this is the, you know, everybody wants to talk about this currency that's going to be dollar, you know, tokened and everything else that the government's going to track, you know, ding-ding. So, I think if you think about it from this standpoint, what's the next part of this that happens? You're going to need a reset with this. And and if you listen to MSTR, the only thing he's really talking about on this, and I'm still short this as well. Um, the only thing that he's talking about on this call that made any sense was I've got two to three years of dividends saved to pay everybody. Okay. Well, that's cool. So, he's got breathing room, but that doesn't stop the underlying asset from going down, right? Just like it didn't stop BMR from losing. I think they lost $6 billion. One of the single greatest losses ever of any investment ever. Okay. So, if you take a look at MSTR or any of these names, like what's going to stop the bleeding? And you might get pissed at me because you own these things or you think cryptos, the cat's pajamas, whatever. This is just my opinion. You, this all needs a reset of whatever that reset looks like. And I'm just going to tell you that reset is going to be like an FT like an FTX reset. You need something like that. You need something where nobody wants to touch it. It's all gross and nasty. And that's when you start looking at it. And what does that do? I I think when like something like a BM and I don't know if it's BMR and I just pick on Tom Lee because of his hair, but like realistically I don't know that it's BMR that does it or if it's SB or if it's ETHZ, but one of these guys, they're going to unwind. They're going to unwind and and by that means they're going to have to liquidate. Mark my words on this. And when they do, it might be a year from now or two years from now, but when they do, that's when Ethereum and that's when you're going to want to look at it. Meanwhile, you have coin that's falling through a cliff right here and you better hold that level. I had some puts I closed the other day. I'm also short circle. Um, and I don't really see any reason at all to do anything with this. And it's a lot of trouble. Like a lot of trouble.
So, where does this put us all after we overlay this? What else is out there that could possibly move or could possibly, you know, move the needle? And this is where it gets really interesting because you have silver as well. Now, after hours silver, and I'm doing this one, it's going to get a little longer, but if we take a look at silver right now, what are you saying? You broke. And I talked about this in the public premarket today. Look at that. Look at it. [laughter] Look at that break. I'm a little punchy. I'm functioning going four hours of sleep and I've been trading for 12 hours. But you you broke here. Well, I I think you're heading back down to here and I think you're going to get to 55 pretty quick. Oh, you can't possibly get there. You were there in December, Rocky. You were right there. I mean, you were literally there in December. What do you mean you can't get there? You could be there by tomorrow morning. And this is the thing, people. The fear, right? It's fear. And that's what you're saying. And you're seeing the panic. Let them panic. You know, I have this saying in the community. I say it all the time. Just let it all burn and stay out of the way. It's easier said than done. I get it. But that's really what you have to do with this. You know, we're currently short this AGQ. Um, and I have a ton of 100 puts on this. And I was picking these puts up literally at one point for like 50 60 cents and then I bought more today at two bucks just as a hedge against the whole thing. But these this there's some real issues here. So, do you do you come into a gap down tomorrow? Do you watch the SM, you know, CI? Why can't that rally? All right, let's get back on point. What do they do tonight? They come out and say, "We're going to spend 200 billion." I actually almost feel like they're all three of them are like Austin Powers villains at this point. But if you really think about it, all that's happening is that you are having an increase in capex and an insane increase in capex. Well, we were told capex was going to drop. Does cap is capex dropping? No. What are they all buying? SNDK. Okay. You want to kill it? Kill it. Is it ahead of itself? Maybe. Who cares, right? Are they going to stop raising prices on Micron? No. Qualcomm had to come out and say, "We can't even really sell product anymore because of the cost of memory." So maybe we want to look at the companies like that. Now, that doesn't mean that they're all going to hold tomorrow. And let's be clear about that. You want to look at those levels and mark those levels. I think with the amount of panic that you're seeing out there, you're starting to get a rise in the VIX finally. Like we finally got a two handle on the VIX, which is nice because you really want to see something with like a three handle and then go, "Okay, we can start looking at this." We've just been selling off and we're not breaking. And I know this is a long one for, you know, um, Thursday, but there's a lot going on out there.
So, when I look at something like Amazon, and Amazon, I'm currently short this after hours. I really like the call, but you he kind of started blowing it talking about all the things we can do out there with it. And nobody really wants to see them spend that kind of money. And so, it's it's super interesting to me because the response to it, but also Google said something very similar. And then you saw what Google did today. and Google had a, you know, a fantastic, fantastic morning down and just ripped and everyone's gonna be upset because it's down five, six bucks after hours, but absolutely fantastic quarter. So, where does this put us for tomorrow? There's a couple things that you really have to watch and we're going to tie this all back. Number one, we talked about this two days ago. And we said if you break, you're going to 588. If you break 600, you can go watch Tuesday's video. You're welcome. And then after you watch that, I said we're going to 588 if we break. It's right here. And I'm not saying go because look how smart I am because if I'm so smart I I would have gotten out of SanDisk and bought it back after hours. What I'm saying is these are your levels. So now what you do is you make decisions when it gets to those levels, right? Just like everybody else. All you're doing is watching this and you're making a decision and going, "All right, well, I'm supposed to hold 588. If I don't hold 588, then I'm going to 580. If if I break that, you got to go." So where I think this is heading is I think that this is heading for obviously a very shaky morning. and I wanted to see and I wanted to do this one after the conference calls so that I could add a little more value to it. But I think that this is really what you have to watch. And I think that you have quite frankly, you have a credibility problem with the market with how you've seen them treat, you know, not only the market but silver and how you've seen them treat Bitcoin. And when those and you can go down that rabbit hole on your own, but what I'm saying to you is, you know, and I was very clear about this, like it wouldn't surprise me to come in and see a five handle like wouldn't surprise me at all. And I think that you have to solve those issues. Then we have to go into the weekend and reset. As far as earnings on companies, some of these companies are crushing it. Some of them, you know, you can't you can't have a misstep here. Like I end tonight when I read this call and I waited for it to end. I just read it. I'm like, you can't miss on the revenue side when you're trading like this. You can't not execute on on your buildout if you're doing this. It's a real problem. So, yeah, you're going to have those blowups in the space, and yeah, you're going to have froth in the space, but what what I think is happening is that they're throwing out a lot of really great companies, and then what we're going to do is we're going to have the ability to go through those companies and and pick up the pieces. This