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China and Japan are having a row. Tourism arrivals from China have been cancelled. The boycott could result in a loss of around 2.2 trillion yen annually, according to Namura Research Institute. Tourism-related stocks in Japan have since sunk.
All this after Prime Minister Sai Takahichi said that China's use of force against Taiwan could constitute a survival-threatening situation for Japan. And in that situation, Japan will be legally allowed to mobilize its troops.
The subject of Japanese militarism has been much discussed since January 2025, 11 months ago. As China held a series of events to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, many films and documentaries were aired in 2025 examining the period of the Japanese invasion.
Every year, American and Japanese troops get together for joint drills known as Exercise Iron Fist. The drills in 2025 are reported by the Japanese media to have the largest troop contingent since the exercise began in 2005. It was held in Kyushu and Okinawa.
Okinawa is part of an island chain known as the Nansi Shoto chain, which stretches 1,200 km between Japan's mainland southern point, Kyushu, and Taiwan. This chain is regarded as a potential front line in the event of a Taiwan contingency.
If you look at the map of Japan, the Nansi Shoto are located in the southwest, literally and geographically very close to Taiwan, East China Sea, and also to the South China Sea. If the Taiwan contingency happens, as the late Prime Minister Abe once mentioned, the Taiwan contingency is the contingency of Japan.
Trouble has been brewing in the Nansi Island chain. In August 2022, China fired five ballistic missiles into waters around Yunaguni to protest US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The nearest missile exploded 80 km off Yunaguni's coast. In February 2025, China flew a reconnaissance and attack drone near the Nansi Islands, prompting scrambles by the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force.
In the same month, after US and Japanese leaders held their first summit, the two sides pledged to increase military presence in the Nansi Islands. Japan is ramping up its defense spending at a record pace since the end of World War II. In 2022, Tokyo pledged 43 trillion yen, that's about 300 billion US, to a military buildup that would span 5 years. It lifts defense spending to 2% of GDP from just over 1%.
Since then, military presence has accelerated rapidly across the Nansi island chain. Yunaguni Island is a case in point. The place is known for its wild horses and rugged coastline, but the wooded mountain ranges now carry radar sites to monitor Chinese military activity. And what was once a cattle ranch is now a military camp.
These developments have divided opinions in the community. Residents must contend with more than just the presence of local troops. The US Army also conducts exercises at Camp Yunaguni. Plans are also underway for a new missile site and expansions to the island's small airport and port.
Some locals fear the military buildup might provoke an attack. The fishermen, who have been among the first to see growing Chinese military activity, take a different view. This division in public opinion can be found across the Nansi island chains, in Okinawa.
Some residents are calling for the number of American troops located on the island to be reduced. 55,000 American troops are stationed in Japan, and most of them are here in Okinawa. The most fundamental difference that needs to be addressed is, I would say, philosophical. In that, there are those in Okinawa who truly believe that any type of preparation for a crisis, any type of military buildup to deter such activities from occurring, is escalatory in nature. So, for them, the best option is to not do anything because any action would be seen as provocative from the other side. So, we should not do that. But then, of course, there are others in Okinawa who believe that no, deterrence works. We need to pursue peace through strength. We need to be prepared.
Is this fundamental philosophical difference also amplified throughout the whole nation? I would say so, and there are various public opinions to support this. I think that the Japanese people are becoming much more aware about the importance of the self-defense forces and the Japan-US alliance in deterring conflict from occurring in the region, precisely because of what's happening in the Taiwan Straits, as well as what's going on in the Russia-Ukraine front. I think we all thought that we are now living in a world where we decided collectively that we are not going to use military force to change the status quo. Apparently, that's not the case anymore with the Russians engaging in an illegal invasion against Ukraine. If that's happening, then how are we to be sure that that doesn't happen again elsewhere in the world?
In the 2025 Japan Defense Ministry white paper, published in July, it states China poses an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge to Japan's security.
Now, since the normalization of China-Japan bilateral relations, trade has just gone up. It's gone up more than 300 times, and the figure now is close to 300 billion US dollars annually. We know that Japan is China's third largest foreign investor, and China is Japan's largest trading partner. So, in the context of all that, is China really a threat to Japan? Well, China has been the engine of the world economy for past decades, and that is also true for Japan. And currently, 12,000 Japanese companies are operating in China, and many of them are making good profits. But at the same time, we are also engaged in the large-scale strategic competition of the United States and China, and we are the largest ally in Asia of the United States. So, how can we really create a more resilient economic structure? After all, the Chinese economy still plays a huge role in the Japanese economy, in both positive ways and also as a source of risk. So, we are now navigating such a complex scenario towards China.
The likelihood of a conflict between China and Japan, I believe, is when Japan starts to provide logistic support to the United States, because that is a kind of treaty obligation for them. But they are not stupid, because according to public opinion, not many people would support a direct conflict with China. I don't believe the Japanese would assist the United States military unless it is attacked by China first, for example, with missiles. But why would China all of a sudden decide to launch a missile attack on Japanese territory?
What's the thinking on whether or not Japan should defend Taiwan if it ever were to come to that? There are no treaty obligations for Japan to protect Taiwan. That's clear. What is important for Japan, though, is that the Taiwan contingency does not happen. So, it's less about Japan trying to defend Taiwan, but more about Japan doing everything it can with its allies and partners to make sure that such a crisis is deterred.
June 23rd, a solemn remembrance ceremony is held. One of many such events this year as Japan marks 80 years since the end of World War II. As its citizens reflect on the past, there are no easy answers on how we can maintain peace in the future.
The Japanese public is divided on whether Japan should exercise its right to collective self-defense if China attacks Taiwan. This, according to a Kyodo news agency poll on November 16th, 2025. The survey found 48.8% in favor and 44.2% against, while 60.4% back Japanese Prime Minister Sai Takayichi's plan to beef up the country's defense spending.
There are growing concerns that the current dispute could spiral into the worst crisis for bilateral relations since 2012. In that year, violent riots and peaceful protests broke out in many Chinese cities following Tokyo's decision to nationalize the Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands, which is a site of territorial disputes.