Transcription
Bitcoin seems to want to trigger a rebound, but is it really a bullish recovery? That's what we're going to analyze today. Also, we'll take stock of Ethereum, of course, and we'll quickly review what's happening with derivatives. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is still available. CTP for strategies last week. So that's on spot and the SPT algorithms which made 15 plus 15.41 R, sorry. So in figures, as usual, for example, on a capital of 1000 dollars risking 5 dollars per trade, that would have given 75 dollars in profit, which is rather very good. Again, to access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. I reiterate once again that past performance is not indicative of future performance. You just have to register on Bitgate via our partner link to access it. So by clicking on this first link, Bitgate which also offers you 10% cashback on your first deposit. For example, if you make a deposit of 500 dollars, you get 50 dollars bonus. So you just have to create your account like this and then you just have to look at this second link algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin and crypto. I explain everything to get the algos for free. The mentorship for free is my complete training from A to Z and also to have access to the VIP Alcoin on Discord. This is where I will share the best opportunities on altcoins from my point of view and I haven't sent anything yet because I find that the market is not yet interesting enough to send you nuggets. But again, there will soon be an algorithm that will take care of positioning itself correctly, but I will talk about it very soon.
So to come back to BTC, we are triggering a rebound. Can we still confirm that it's a bottom? No, it's much too early. Also, the fact that the price is stopping here is quite suspicious. We are leaving all the stops that are right here. So at the level of 93,000 dollars. In my opinion, we will go to seek this zone which covers these fair value gap zones. So for me, it would be coherent to see the price consolidate a little to let people position themselves to accumulate more stops and liquidations in these price levels. So between 92,000 approximately and 85,000 dollars to then reach this zone and potentially, I think, mark our bottom. When I say mark the bottom, I don't know if it will be a definitive bottom that will allow us to reach a new ATH and then go much higher, or if it will be a bottom that will trigger a descending top afterwards. So that's what we wouldn't want to see, but for example, if Bitcoin were to do something like this, it wouldn't be good at all. It would really start to reverse the long-term dynamic and potentially start to do something like this. So that's not what we want to see. What we want to see is a bottom in these FVG zones or at worst, by taking the stops of the last low, making everyone flip. But we don't want descending tops afterwards because that would confirm a bearish dynamic and for that matter, it would confirm a bear market. It would be the case to say it. That would be a bear market from a technical point of view. Well, we're not there yet, we're very far from it. Now, what is very probable is that the bottom is not there from a technical point of view. After, maybe we have bottomed again, but in my opinion, it's not the most probable thing. I don't think we came back here not to hunt for the big holes in the volume. This is literally where we will stop, liquidate a maximum of people, where panic will set in, where it can accelerate downwards, and where it can trigger a lot of sell markets. In short, people panicking and hitting the sell button since the support is here. All those who are buying are telling themselves, "As long as the support holds, it's okay. However, if we go below that, it risks accelerating, and that's when people will panic and hit the sell button perfectly in this dip zone. And it's often in these dip zones that we have good opportunities. That's why I think the market didn't come this far not to rebalance this dip zone. It seems quite unlikely to me. So that's the first thing. Now, why talk about a rebound? Well, simply because we've been falling for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days, 5, 6 days. Sooner or later, the market rebounds, the selling pressure calms down a bit. Often on Sunday evenings, there's a pump, often on daily highs that cover daily fair value gaps. So I wouldn't be surprised at all if we came back to work, as we did last week, the fair value gap zones we left behind. For example, we left this zone, we made a small wick into it. Nothing would prevent the price from coming to seek this FVG zone, or even this one. So, there are two FVG zones to fill now on this drop. We have between 97,000 and 98,000, and the second zone is between 9900 and 100,800. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we filled these zones, for example. It should also be noted that since the previous order block, we have reached the AB = CD objective, which we have even slightly exceeded, and we had come to seek the premium zone of this movement here, so between 0.5 and 0.75. If we do something quite similar, we could calmly fill this FVG here around 100,000 dollars and make our last leg possibly. And so, if I speculate too much, if we go for AB = CD, that would bring us for example to these objectives. So to fill these FVG zones. So, I also remind you that we have an important long-term objective, which is 382. Each time, we bottomed out at this level during previous corrections. Perhaps history will repeat itself again. This first stop is at around 83,000 dollars, 84,000 dollars, sorry. This could be an objective possibly. Now, I don't know if we will go there. For me, the major objective is to deal with this entire FVG zone. As long as I don't see a bottom, I think the price is heading towards this zone. HH, well, I don't have much more to say about BTC. We won't be too bored commenting on the weekend price action. Now, you have to understand that we are in a potential rebound. What I'm watching today is the price reaction in this fair value gap zone. In addition, it is vectorial. So, it has a high probability of being filled. We will observe the price reaction in this zone, especially on the highs of Saturday, so above 96,800, and we will see the reaction. For example, if we see something like this, it wouldn't be very positive and it could indicate more that we are going to eat the stops of these zones and fill these fair value gap zones. I would even go so far as to say that the breaker that marked the entire bullish impulse would be an excellent retest point. So, well, if I really take the last two bullish candles, here is the breaker zone, so right on the first stop between 83,000 and 88,000, would be an excellent zone for me for a bottom, unless we want to attack the lowest prices of Trump's tariffs. That's 74,000. But for now, we're not talking about that. This is really for me a very, very big zone for a high probability bottom. 83-88. If I had to commit, I would announce it here. However, if we break through this, it means it's going for a big massive liquidation knife, and then it would be below 74,000. But we're not there yet, and let's say outside of a market that would massively clean up leverage. If we don't go into this theory, I really think 83-88 is a really excellent zone.
Now, let's look at what's happening on the derivatives side. And we see that people continue to use leverage. And that doesn't please me at all. In fact, people should be afraid. People should be afraid. We should see funding rates decrease, open interest decrease. So that indicates that a lot of longs are exiting their positions. Shorts are shorting. Buyers are exiting, short sellers are shorting. That's not the case at all currently. Currently, what we have is a funding rate stuck at 0.01 on Binance. On Bitget, it moves a bit. On Bybit, it's a bit less aggressive here. However, on Hyperliquid, it's the same. I mean, when on Hyperliquid, we see that we have funding rates here that are increasing a bit. We went up to 0.02, 0.02 again not too long ago. Well, not too long ago, it was some time ago, but when we see the funding rate increasing a bit above 0.01, it has decreased. I don't understand. I think there was also a peak. Maybe the data was misread. But again, we don't have negative funding on Hyperliquid. Yet Hyperliquid has the most volatile funding rates. Hyperliquid has the most volatile funding rates. Generally, it's where it moves the most. So if people were really short, very aggressively short, the funding rate would be negative there. So the fact that it's not the case shows that there aren't too many aggressive short sellers and that there are still people trying to capture the bottom with leverage, and that's a bit worrying. Well, that confirms my hypothesis that the bottom is not really there. It would be more in this zone between 88 and 83. Now, if we start to enter these zones and people continue to long, we might have a knife that would go all the way to the last low. After that, well, it's a hypothesis, we keep it in the back of our minds. We're not going to start speculating on that for now. And that's a bit about the zones. In any case, if I had to commit, I would say that the bottom is really not there. It seems unlikely to me. After, it's a good zone to buy Bitcoin below 100,000 dollars. If we think about the next halving in 2028, in its current state, the production cost is currently around 93,000 to 70,000 dollars. This is where we always bottom out, by the way. So, let's say it's really these zones that would mark a bottom. It aligns well with these breaker zones, etc., in the production cost. We see that was the case here in September, etc. So that's the first thing to note. Second thing to note is that, as I said, there is really a production cost, the dynamic is still bullish. That is to say, the last low is at 74,000 dollars. So as long as it's not broken, the monthly dynamic is intact, and so the idea is either to find a stop hunt here at a new ATH or to find an ascending low at a new ATH, for example. As I said earlier, if we did something like this, it would really not be positive. So, yes, it's also to say that we know, we are touching, we are starting to touch the top of the production cost, but I wouldn't be surprised if we pierced it a bit and worked this zone. Notably, the first stop, we would be within the production cost. And yes, as I said, for those who don't want to bother with "Yes, but the throne thinks we can go between 83,000 and 88,000." Well, for me, that's based on technical conditions. Now, if you're an investor, just think about this. What will the production cost be in 2028? Is it interesting to buy at this price for a horizon of 2.5 years? Yes, it clearly is. That doesn't mean the price won't go lower, but I mean, if the hash rate doesn't collapse, because we're starting to see large farms unplugging Bitcoin to create AI data centers. Well, maybe that will have an impact on the hash rate, but for now, it doesn't. But for example, the minimum production cost in 2028 is between 140,000 and 190,000 dollars. So, it means that by 2028, at the next halving, Bitcoin will be at a minimum of 200,000 dollars. We can assume that. So, is making a X2 in 2.5 years a bad investment? I don't think so. Now, again, that doesn't necessarily mean the bottom is here. It just means that for an investor who doesn't care about technical analysis and who doesn't care about crypto the throne's opinion, if we set the context, it's to say that BTC in May-June 2028 will probably be worth more than 200,000 dollars. So, is it a good investment if we assume that? Yes. What could make this plan fail? A lot of farms are switching from Bitcoin to AI because AI is much more profitable, and at that point, it would massively crash the hash rate, it would crash the difficulty, it would crash the production cost, and we would have to recalculate a potential production cost for BTC in 2028. Now, currently, what we can see is that yes, the hash rate is decreasing a bit, but there's nothing extraordinary. If we look at the long term, there's nothing to panic about here. Now, if we really see the hash rate start to collapse because many miners are unplugging because Bitcoin is falling and because they want to switch to AI data centers, then yes, that would be a problem, but it would readjust the production cost, and we would have to take that into account, but for now, that's not the case at all. But I'll make a video about that because it's very important.
And regarding Ethereum, well, before talking about that, I'll also take a look at what's happening with ETH. Are people more in a long or short position, etc.? We saw some negative funding in the last few hours. So that was a few days ago now. It was 5, 6 days ago. Now, on the whole, there's not too much negative funding here, whether it's on Bybit, Binance, or Hyperliquid. There was a lot of negative funding here. That didn't prevent the price from falling because there's significant selling pressure. Now, regarding funding and open interest, it worries me less compared to Bitcoin. We see that people don't really want to expose themselves on ETH. So that's rather encouraging. And as I said, Ethereum is still defending the same zone. Its monthly fair value gap zone that it must maintain. Similarly, its weekly fair value gap zone which stops perfectly at 3046. This is where we almost bottomed out. And the objective would be to close above 382. So we would like Ethereum to get back above 3400 dollars tonight. That would be a first signal that it's maintaining its first stop. Is it possible? Yes, it would fill these FVG zones. If we look at the daily chart, there would be nothing extraordinary about filling the last daily fair value gap. Now, what we wouldn't want to see is this: filling the FVG, getting rejected, and definitively breaking this low. If we settle below this low, then it's more indicative of a continuation to seek the next FVG zones. And that would not be positive. That's what we'll need to observe in the coming days on Ethereum. Now, well, we're rebounding. In my opinion, we're going to eat the small stops that are accumulating here, and we'll have to see the price reaction above this stop zone to see how the price will react. Seeing something like this would be very good to try to take the opposite view. However, starting to have something like this, that's not positive. It's more indicative of a bearish continuation towards 3055 or even potentially towards 2900 dollars in the first instance. I don't have much more to say about Ethereum. I'll just give a quick update on ETFs, but I think we already saw that yesterday. Yes, we already saw that yesterday. We are still seeing outflows. So money is still leaving Bitcoin and Ethereum, which is quite normal since risky assets are falling, whether it's stocks or indices, so we are also de-risking on these types of products. We'll just have to see if there's an acceleration or not. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the like button, subscribe, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, lots of free content for you. Don't hesitate. See you tomorrow. Have a good day.