Transcription
Hello everybody. Happy Saturday. Yesterday I made a video that the four-year cycle is dead.
Hello everybody. Happy Saturday.
And a lot of people thought I was crazy. So today I'm going to prove it why the cycles are different this time. And uh I spent a lot of time trying to figure out a way of of presenting that. We're going to do that today. But before we jump in, a big thank you to Shaun D and TND and Bey McGee and everybody out there and uh Sun-Kissed 6209. Cool name. Let's get into the story. This one's called The Long Bull. Who's ready for some bull? No, no, not bull. This is real stuff. Let's get into it.
Enough financial advice. Um I do find things like Bitcoin to be absolutely fascinating because there's so much data you can look at. We're going to look at a lot of charts today, a lot of history to tell us where we are, but it's not financial advice. First, before we jump in, October is still down 3% for the month, which is not good. Uh, we're exactly at 111,500, but there are some good things I can show you. And we have six days left in the month. We still have time to turn into an October. Uh, we just need to be patient. And again, follow the money.
The ETFs had a pretty good week so far. It may look like two down days, but when you bounce it up, it's nearly half a billion dollars uh so far for the week. 460 million to be precise, which is a lot of money. And we are very up for the actual month of October. The ETFs have pulled in $4.22 billion. By the way, that's nearly 40,000 Bitcoin. That is a big hole of Bitcoin and again we have to watch this. We now have TRDFI on the cusp of coming in which has me very bullish. DBF430. Thank you Steve Yonka SunST McGee. Appreciate you guys.
Uh so again we're people ask me all the time what would make you concerned about this bull market ending and the answer is two things. one when liquidity stops global M2 stops and two when the ETF flows stop then I would be concerned also optimized trend on the monthly chart when that turns negative that's a sign that we are in a bare market if things repeat.
Now let's talk about this before we get into some charts and cycle duration. This was a really cool article and you remember if you've watched this channel since January 2024 before I had a funny feeling. Uh, you know, long-term whales needed some security because Bitcoin was getting very expensive. You know, breaking $100,000. If you're an early adopter of Bitcoin, you spend 10 bucks on a Bitcoin or 100 bucks on a Bitcoin, you're now sitting potentially on billions. And it's not what you make, it's what you keep. And the Bitcoin whales are smart enough to know that for things like inheritance and security and preventing wrench attacks, they move to the ETFs. And this article talks exactly about that. Uh managing a huge the risks of managing huge Bitcoin wallets is extremely risky. One wrench attack, one lost key can destroy a lifelong fortune. And therefore, a lot of people were moving to the ETFs. Now I was happy to see this early and in fact I faced the same dilemma in 2022. I wanted exposure to Bitcoin but didn't have the courage to do self-custody at scale. So I did something else with Micro Strategy. The rest is history. Anyway, this is the ETF migration and it's good.
So, the reason I think it's good is the whales have sold their spot Bitcoin and moved to an ETF first of all, but that means all the money flows into the ETFs isn't exactly represented by new investors, which means the new investors have yet to arrive, which is a good sign. And per this the ETF migration could drive the price per the article up to 140K by mid 2026. Everybody everybody now is talking about a longer cycle which actually makes me a bit nervous because when everybody talks about the same thing, they're almost always wrong. But let's look at some charts and try to figure out where we are.
First of all, Bitcoin is still 13% from alltime highs but trending up. This is zoomed out over a multi-year period on the ATR model. We're right bang between level five and level six. And will we get back to a new all-time high? It's looking pretty good from this chart. Also, this is kind of a bit of sad news, so prepare yourselves, my friends. I always divide everything by M2 uh to get a feel for exactly where we are. If we look at the last all-time high for Bitcoin from the last cycle, that was November 2022, and compare it to the price today, but divide the price of Bitcoin by M2, we are only up 58% in four years, which is a compound annual growth rate of 12%. And again, if you watch the channel, you know I say if you're not making 14% per year, you're drowning. You're not treading water. So basically, if you had bought the top of Bitcoin at the last cycle that was $69,000 and you waited to today, you weren't making more than 12% compound annual growth rate, which is poultry still beats the S&P 500, but it is not where you want to be. So putting that aside, well, the reason I share this too is to make the case that it hasn't been a blowoff top. But it hasn't been a raging bull market by any stretch of the imagination. Remember, the more money that's in the system, the more it floats all boats. Thank you, Nick.
Now, let's go look at a couple more charts before we get into the cycle duration. This one, uh, talks about MVRV again. Uh, and this chart is current. I need to I'm going to turn off my camera so you can see the actual date out to almost 2026. And that's where we are. But the MVRV is very very stable. And this suggests again we're around the, you know, the 40th to 60th percentile, which means we're not overvalued by any stretch or undervalued. We're actually breaching back into the yellow zone, which typically would be a place to nibble. Orange zone, you typically don't buy there. Red zone is where you plan your exit.
Now, another version of this is our top and bottom indicator, which is a composite score of about 21 different onchain indicators for Bitcoin. And you can see the two red arrows I included here. They were the previous red tops of cycles. Got 2017, 2018, and 2022. Now, where we are now, we've just peaked back on the top bottom indicator to orange from yellow, but we still have to get through a lot of orange, then dark orange, and then red before we get to a top. And we're nowhere near that.
So, again, this analysis spurred me on to thinking, okay, see those red bars in the chart? They are the bare markets. And I'm thinking, hm, and they are calculated by the ATR model. It identifies a top and bottom and when the bare market begins, when it ends, when the bull market begins, when it ends, etc. The red shadow is the bear. But let's analyze this a little bit better. First of all, briefly touched on this yesterday. This is the 4-year cycle and where we are today. and analyzing Bitcoin growth since the cycle. As you can see, we have officially surpassed the elapsed time from cycle low to cycle high in previous bull markets, 2018, 2022, cycle peaks, etc. Number of days. We are now longer than ever before at overund,60 days.
Now, what I want to do is create something different though. not look at that but calculate the duration between the bare markets which is the bull market duration. Okay, so the red shadows is when the bare market ends and begins. So the first cycle we have here on the left that was basically around 20 2015 2016 2017 up to Christmas 2017 that was 818 days. Then the next one was 978 days kicking off in 2019 all the way up to November 2022. And the current cycle we are in right now today is as of today 1,056 days. So what can you see from this? What is the pattern? Okay, the pattern that I see first of all and I haven't seen anybody discussing this in detail is first of all every Bitcoin bull market gets longer by 100 to 150 days per cycle 818 days to 978 days call it 150 days extra right now we're actually more than a we're heading more to you know a 100 days or so but we don't know when this cycle is over if it will even end because the reasons I think it may not end is because much higher market cap. We have ETFs and uh digital asset treasury companies like Micro Strategy buying a whole bunch. I just showed you how much the ETFs bought this week. 40,000 Bitcoin almost. Uh also global liquidity. We are aligning with global liquidity which means rate cuts, money in the system. The more money in the system, the more we should have an extended cycle. I don't want to say the word super cycle but extended cycle way beyond the four-year pattern. And finally, the impact, you've heard me saying this as well for years. The impact of the having is diminishing every having. It was huge in the beginning and now it's not at all. It's 450 Bitcoin a day. Um so and next time it'll be 225 Bitcoin a day, which will be very little considering how much the ETFs are currently buying. So that's the piece on bull market durations. I think we could be in for a prolonged bull run as well.
Now we have a hopeium chart of the day from AO. I'm going to again turn my camera off. We believes we are entering the green box which means entering the bull run or the final phase of the bun bull run or the banana zone or the parabolic phase or the blowoff top. Some people still see this, but if you look at his boxes again, his boxes are also getting longer and longer. The downturn dip is getting longer. The green box is getting longer and the amount it goes up, that remains to be seen. So either way, we have to watch this very carefully.
Also, another good sign that a potential bottom could be close if we are in a bull market. This is a historic signal that when the short-term holder bottom signal when a certain percentage are in profit at 3% and you can see also these percentages are getting higher and higher 3% 2% well and then 12% of short-term holders are in profit which means a lot of people that bought over the last 155 days are at a loss 88% and when that happens it's typically a bottom two again if we are in a bull market if it's a bear of course we can continue to go down, but it doesn't appear that way.
Let's look at more money flow, too, because this was a cool little chart as well. Uh, shout out to bar chart. Uh, gold has seen an inflow of only hundred billion dollars since 2020. Of course, the Chinese are stacking like crazy, but that's not a big inflow for considering it's a $30 trillion asset now. But compare that to the inflow of 4.5 trillion has gone into cash versus 0.1 trillion into gold. 2.7 trillion into equities and 2.1 trillion into bonds. Who the heck is buying bonds? I don't know. But it's interesting. Now, a lot of that cash that has gone into these money markets has to come back and go into risk assets like Bitcoin, like equities, and maybe like gold, too. We'll see. But the point is, it doesn't take a lot of money sometimes to move the needle, even for a very big asset that is 15 times larger than Bitcoin. again 100 billion it doubled. So we'll see where we go uh with Bitcoin next. The point is as they cut the rates this money will look for risk assets to find a home.
One other thing I do want to look at is NASDAQ Bitcoin correlation. I used to share this chart every week on Octa. I haven't shared it in a while but what is very clear from this is the complete breakdown of this actual price action. And I'm going to zoom in so I can read the percentages. But over the last 90 days, NASDAQ is up 7%. Bitcoin is down 9.49%. These things are heavily correlated all the time, but not today. Not for the last 3 months. Ne neither, by the way, is Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin normally follows gold with the 30-day lag. It hasn't been doing that either. So, this tells me something weird is going on and it has to catch up. It has to catch up with the NASDAQ and it has to catch up with gold as well. Now, to hear you how wild NASDAQ has been, it's been up for seven straight months, whereas Bitcoin has been flat pretty much for a year. Can't make that up, folks. Uh there is some catching up to do if the correlations actually match in history.
And final piece of good news too for the day. uh was the Bitcoin Bitcoin and crypto market structure bill. You hear Marty talking about this all the time. But why is this good news? Why is Brian Armstrong excited that the fact that this bill is almost done? Because it would enable banks and traditional finance to custody, trade and offer Bitcoin products, spot ETFs, derivatives without fear of enforcement. Everybody will come in. Remember only a tiny proportion of people are exposed to Bitcoin. You know the median I covered yesterday median exposure to Bitcoin in a fund or in a high net worth individual or an institution is zero. Only 4% have it. And this will open the door to a lot more money coming in which will drive up the price. You know, we'll see the spot Bitcoin ETFs with $40 billion in inflows has had a huge impact on price and this clarity will bring in a lot more money pushing price up another 30 to 50% at least if this bill gets approved. So keep an eye out for that and fingers crossed.
And finally, memeure, they call me 007. Shout out to Ocean JD who shared this. Zero bank accounts, zero trusted third parties, and seven hardware wallets. I thought that was cute. Uh big thank you once again to Dog One, Adam Q, Booy McDuck, Angel Black, Nick M, TBF430, Steo, Junka, Sun-Kissed, Bey McGee, Shaund D, and TND Tesla. I appreciate you all. My voice is a little we got some rain for the first time in a long time, so I can't talk that much, but hopefully be back tomorrow. Have a good night, everybody. See you tomorrow for the Q&A, noon Pacific. Thank you. Bye.