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What is going on, Headliner Nation? I hope you're ready for some straight banger picks here in week five. We have been on absolute fire this season. 10 of our last 12 picks in this show have hit and on the year we're sitting at 71% on our player pickums. Our process of picking more winners and really focusing on trying to double and triple our money is absolutely working.
Now, people are using this video to gain information on players for their fantasy teams and to win on Underdog. It's something for everyone. So, before we dive into the players here in today's show, I have to be sure that you are all signed up, that you are all ready to go on Underdog. So, if you want to follow along with us, you can. So, here's what you do. Head over to Underdog Fantasy or download the app, create a new account, and use the referral code headliners when you do so. Then, all you need to do is make your minimum deposit. And if you do that, you'll be ready for a weekend full of promos that you can just absolutely capitalize on. If you sign up with our headliners promo code and play just $5, you're going to get $100 in bonus funds. But that is not it. It is officially Bootober. So this weekend you're going to get the following promos. A profit boost on the London game. A profit boost on the Monday Night Football game. How about an additional profit boost that you can use all weekend long and for the next 4 days you have unlimited 30% profit boost on all of your player pickum tickets. I mean, come on. At this point, it's an absolute no-brainer.
But all right, enough of that. Let's dive into the players we're going to be looking at here in week five. And that first player is Quinn Sean Judkins, running back of the Cleveland Browns. And it sure did not take very long for him to take over that Bellcow role in Cleveland. He has had 44 touches over his last two weeks and has now had 80 plus rushing yards and a touchdown in back-to back ball games. Really, the only thing that has worked in Cleveland as of late has been the running game. The passing game has been so bad that Cleveland is going to turn the ball over to rookie quarterback Dylan Gabriel here in week five. Now, I may not be the biggest Dylan Gabriel guy, but running backs are a young quarterback's best friend, especially in poor passing offenses. They're going to rely on the run game, keep possession of the ball, keep the clock moving, and away from your opponent as much as you possibly can. And that right there will be even more magnified given the fact that this is an international game in London. Cleveland is going to want to take as much pressure as they can off of the young quarterback, but the matchup is a part of this equation as well. Minnesota has allowed over 19 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and the ninth most rushing yards to their opponents. Last week, the Pittsburgh running backs ran for 121 yards on them, including 99 from Kenneth Gainwell. In week two, the Atlanta backfield ran for 219 yards, including 143 from Bejon. Volume plus matchup plus international game, plus a rookie quarterback in his first ever start. Things are just lining up for Quinn Shawn Judkins to have a great week five.
So now, let's head over to underdog and see how we can take advantage of all of this. If you pull up Quinn Shawn Judkins, you will see his current rushing total is set to 72.5 rushing yards. Now, he has surpassed that total in his last two games. Actually, in tougher matchups as well against teams like Green Bay and Detroit, but remember, we want to boost our odds of hitting. So, we are going to take that total and we're going to drop it down to 59.5 rushing yards at a 73x multiplier. that will lower the overall payout but increase the chances of hitting and with all the boosts that we have available this weekend on underdog. It's going to make up for it anyway. Now, if you look at the game log here for Quinn Shawn Judkins, you're going to see that he has gone over this 59.5 total in all three of his starts this season. There can also be an argument made as well that this matchup is the easiest he's had all year long.
Now, up next is Xavier Hutchinson, wide receiver of the Houston Texans. And now, you know, I typically like to stick to guys with bigger roles, but this is just another one of those plays that just makes a lot of sense to me. Now, he may not be the most utilized wide receiver in Houston, but he has played in 64% of the offensive snaps this year. He has had at least two receptions in each of the four games this year, and for his career, he's averaging 10.3 yards per reception. Then, we get to the fact that they're going to be playing up against a beat up Baltimore Ravens team. We know Lamar Jackson is out, but this defense also has three members of its secondary that are currently questionable to play. Baltimore has allowed the second most passing yards of all teams in the NFL. And from a fantasy perspective, Baltimore is allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
So now, let's head over to underdog and see if we can take advantage of this. Now, if you pull up Xavier Hutchinson, you're going to see that his current receiving total is set to 15.5 receiving yards. Now, he has hit that total in eight of the last 10 games he's played. So, there is a chance that he could hit it once again. However, over the last two weeks, he's only had 16 yards receiving and 17 yards receiving. So, it's razor close. So, what we're going to do once again is we're going to take that total. We're going to drop it down to only 9.5 receiving yards at a.77x multiplier. and take the higher. That's going to lower the overall payout once again. But don't forget, we have so many boosts to use this weekend. It's going to make up for it. Now, if you look at the game logs for Xavier Hutchinson, you're going to see that he has gone higher than 9.5 receiving yards in all four games this year. And over those four games, he's averaging 23 yards per game. With how Houston's offense has kind of struggled through the air, I would not be surprised if they treated this matchup as a get-right game to try to get jump started on offense. And if that's the case, Xavier Hutchinson going to have an opportunity to go over 9.5 yards receiving pretty easily.
Now, up next is rookie wide receiver Tedaro McMillan of the Carolina Panthers. And no, he hasn't had some crazy start to the season, but overall, he's been pretty solid. T-Mac has had at least eight targets in all four games this season. And the worst game that he has had was in week three where he still had three catches for 48 yards. But he isn't being used as some dink and dunk wide receiver. He's averaging over 15 yards per reception, which is 13th highest among all NFL wide receivers. But the metric that I want to pay attention to is that yak yards after the catch. T-Mac has 101 Yak yards on the season and that is 12th highest among wide receivers. That is definitely a metric that plays in our favor here. But now that takes us to the matchup this week against Miami and Miami has been pretty vulnerable to teams top wide receivers. They allowed 82 yards last week to Garrett Wilson. They allowed 80 yards to Michael Pitman in week one. Now, obviously Buffalo and New England, the other two games they've played don't really have wide receiver ones, but even Khil Shakir had 45 yards and a touchdown against Miami. But we also have to acknowledge the fact that Miami is going to be without Tyreek Hill. However, they still have enough weapons to put some points up on the board. Tight end Javian Sanders and running back Chuba Hubard are questionable to play. And with the way that Ted can rack up yardage, we could be in store for a solid game from the rookie.
So, now let's head over to underdog and see how we can take advantage of this situation. If you pull up Tedaro McMillan, you're going to see his current receiving yard total is set to 62.5 yards. That's a total he's only hit in two of the four games this season. So, it really makes it a 50/50 shot of hitting. So, what we're going to do is we're going to drop that total down to 39.5 receiving yards at a 72x multiplier and take the higher. Yes, that's going to lower the overall payout, but with all the boosts, I'm going to try to drive this point home. There are so many boosts this weekend, it is definitely going to make up for it. Now, if you look at the game log of Tedo McMillan, you're going to see by us dropping the total down to 39.5, it's become a number that he has hit in all four games this season. Best case scenario here, Miami gets out to an early lead and Carolina is forced to throw the ball a lot. But also don't forget that the running game is banged up in Carolina and that heavy passing volume is likely to be there once again in week five.
Now, next up, we got a tight end and it's Darren Waller of the Miami Dolphins. And what a welcome back last week it was for Darren Waller. Considering he's been rapping more than balling, he actually looked pretty freaking good last week. Now, obviously, we can't count on weekly tight ends, but with the injury to Tyreek Hill, this offense is going to need Waller maybe more than they even thought they were going to. There is a high likelihood that we see Darren Waller adopt the John Smith role from 2024. We cannot forget that Miami let go of Janu Smith, who had been their best tight end in forever, cuz they wanted to sign Darren Waller out of retirement. Now, he may not be that big play guy that he used to be, but he could go out weekly and rack up five catches for 50 yards pretty easily. But this week, he gets a great matchup going up against Carolina, who allows the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. On average, over the first four weeks of the season, Carolina is allowing 60 yards receiving to opposing tight ends. And if we're being completely honest, the Carolina defense has been much better on shutting down wide receivers on the outside. They have actually held opposing wide receivers to the third fewest fantasy points per game. Just another thing that could definitely help out Darren Waller this week.
So, let's go ahead. Let's head over to underdog and try to take advantage of this. If you pull up Darren Waller, you're going to see his current receiving yards are set at 28.5. Now, last week in his first game back, he had just 27, but his role, like we've already talked about, could be increased this week. So definitely there's a chance that he could hit that 28.5, but we want to better our odds. So we're going to take his receiving yard total and drop it down to 19.5 at a 72x multiplier. Once we do that, we're going to take the higher because yes, even though the payout's going to be lower, it's definitely going to boost our chances of hitting. Now, we can pull up the game log here for Darren Waller, but obviously there was a big gap in which he played games. But if you pull up his last 20 games played, he has exceeded 19.5 yards in 18 out of those 20 games. If Carolina can hold the Miami wide receivers in check on the outside, it is not out of the question for Darren Waller to at least rack up three receptions this week. Even last week, he averaged nine yards per reception. Three balls would be more than enough to make sure that this hits.
Now, up next is Jonathan Taylor, running back of the Indianapolis Colts. And we all know he has been off to a hot start in 2025. As of right now, he's on pace to outproduce his single season yardage record of 2,171 total yards, which he set back in 2021. He's averaging his highest yards per touch of his career. And he's on pace for a careerhigh in targets. And that right there is the cherry on top. It's something he did really well at in 2021 when he racked up over 2,000 total yards. But the last few years, he hasn't really been involved in the passing game much. In fact, he has almost as many receptions through four weeks of this season as he did the entire season in 2023 and in 2024. Things are truly clicking for JT in this offense right now. But that brings us to this matchup going up against the Raiders. Now, on paper, this is a pretty tough matchup. Vegas allows the seventh fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. And on the season, they have allowed less than 100 yards rushing in three of their four games played. But it's not like they've played the best running teams in the NFL. It was New England in week one, the Chargers in week two, Washington in week three, and Chicago last week. None of those teams have the running attack or a running back like Jonathan Taylor. Then we add in the fact that he's had a minimum of 20 touches in every game this season. There is no reason to think that Jonathan Taylor can't thrive again.
So, let's head over to underdog. Let's try to take advantage of this. If you pull up Jonathan Taylor, you're going to see his current receiving yard line is set at 17.5 yards. Now, that is something that he has been able to hit in three of the four games this season, but barely. He had 16 yards in week three and 20 yards in week four. That makes it a lot closer than what I really want it to be. So, let's better our odds. Let's drop it down to 9.5 yards at a 72x multiplier and take the higher. We'll take the lower payout to boost our chances of hitting because underdog's helping us by giving us those boosts all weekend anyway. So, if you look at the game log for the first four weeks for Jonathan Taylor, he's averaging 28 yards receiving per game. JT for his career is averaging 7.8 yards per reception. So, in reality, he only needs two catches for this to hit. He has had at least two receptions in every game this year. So, we have a good chance that this one hits as well.
Now, last but not least is Jir Gibbs, running back of the Detroit Lions. And once again, he continues to be probably the safest high ceiling running back in the NFL. He's had at least 90 total yards and at least a touchdown now in three straight ball games. We don't need to spend a lot of time here telling you how good Jir Gibbs is. I'm pretty sure you're well aware of it. But what we do like this week is the matchup going up against Cincinnati. Cincinnati has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to the running back position on the year. And they have allowed over 130 yards rushing in three straight games. Basically, since they lost Joe Burrow. And why is that? Because Jake Browning sucks and so does the Cincinnati defense. They are constantly losing and their opponents can just run on them nonstop. So why do we expect much different in this matchup? Vegas has Detroit as a 10 and a half point favorite with the total points sitting at 48.5. Now, since he has only scored 13 points combined over the last two weeks if this game is going to have 48 points scored, a lot of that is going to be coming from Detroit. But most importantly, that means there's an opportunity for a whole lot of running.
So, let's go ahead and head over to underdog and try to take advantage of this. If you pull up Jir Gibbs, you will see that his current rushing total is set to 77.5 yards. That's a pretty high total for him and a total that he's only hitten 60% of his last 20 games. So, let's better the odds. Let's drop it down to 59.5 rushing yards at a.70x multiplier and take the higher. Now, that's definitely going to lower the payout for sure, but remember, it's going to boost the chances we have at hitting because if you look at that total number and you drop it down to that 59.5, you are going to see that he has hit that total in 85% of his last 20 games played. With the big playability, a potential positive game script, and a poor defense in Cincinnati, 59.5 rushing yards for Jir Gibbs in week five should be more than doable.
All right, so there are my six picks for the week. Break them up into threeman tickets and do not forget to use the boost that Underdog is providing this weekend. But like I always do, I want to include an anytime touchdown slip just for some fun. Now obviously there's nothing safe about this, but the three guys that I'm picking to score a touchdown here this week, we got Bree Hall, Devon Achan, and Jir Gibbs. If that mixture of players can hit, we're looking at four times our money. Now, if you're looking for even more picks, be sure to become a channel member. And don't forget about Next Play either. They offer picks for all kinds of sites, whichever ones you play on. And if you're a member of the channel, you get a huge discount as well. Now, links to everything are down below in the description, but good luck to everyone this weekend. Hopefully, we walk away with some cash. >> [music]