Transcription
Hello. It is April 2nd, Thursday, 2026. Jason Shapiro. I will try to figure this out, although it ain't going to be easy.
Today was a great day, I thought, for what the hell was that? And do I know anything about how the market is acting? And a reminder that the answer is probably no. And uh always remember, the market can do anything. And if you don't believe it, today was a great day for that.
We had Donald Trump obviously make his speech last night. It was pretty aggressive, maybe a little bit more aggressive than people were expecting, saying that he was still going to be doing a lot of bombing and all that and we haven't heard anything necessarily positive come back from the Iranians. And the market went down on that as we saw last night. Went down a lot. Spent the whole night going down and then we got to the actual market here and uh we just went straight up. And at some point here, there was some news that came out of Iran about the straight or whatever, but the market was going up the whole morning into that. And then the news broke and then of course it ripped and then did nothing. But in the end of the day, it didn't give up. It closed very close to the highs. That was the stock market overall. Somewhat of a shocker.
I think obviously the most interesting thing and the biggest head scratcher is this idea that crude oil was up a lot. 11% on the day. Crude oil was up on that news. There's the crude chart. I mean, that's a new high close here. Uh, and yet stocks went up. So, if nothing else, we can clearly throw away this idea that it's all about crude oil. Now, you know, could there be other days when crude goes up and stocks go down? Of course. But the correlation thing is now, I would say, officially gone. And that makes sense because that was the story. It's been the story for a month already. And at a certain point, it's like we get it. Everybody gets it. And therefore, there's no edge in knowing that whatsoever. I think we're at the point clearly that that was the case. And today was the proof. Okay. And that's true of just about everything else because bonds also went up today on the back of of crude oil being so strong. What is that? You know, I thought that this all meant inflation and and and this was bad for bonds. And I could see maybe the short end going up, but even but the short end didn't go up. The long end did. So that was a headscratcher. And the dollar went up. What we've been seeing on these days, although this wasn't one of these days, but what we've been seeing obviously as I've been talking about is this whole crude up, stocks down, dollar up. Well, we had crude up, stocks up, dollar up. Uh, Bitcoin down. Bitcoin still trades like crap to me. and gold and silver which I would expect to lead the stock market should it be an up day actually lagged today. Uh silver has been leading the stock market and doing well. Today was not that day. So very strange day today from the correlation and the expectation of the war point of view.
I think that if the stock market was going to go up and discount in the end of the war, um my feeling this week has been it needed to rally on the back of um increased fighting. Maybe today was that day. Um I would say that I mean look it went up despite you know despite all this despite the crude and despite all that. So if nothing else I don't have a position in stocks. I have been bearish stocks. Um I went flat stocks a few weeks ago, but I have remained very bearish based on the things that I look at which are positioning, sentiment, and and market action. Positioning went neutral. Sentiment from my read was that there were too many people thinking that it was just a freebie to buy stocks and so that when the war ended, the stock market would rip. I thought that was too easy. Um, so I didn't like the sentiment and the market action has not proven anything to me very good. Sure, there have been some updates on the back of some sort of good Trump tweets, so to speak, but that doesn't tell me anything. But today, that changed. So, if nothing else, today the sentiment or not the sentiment, but the market action in the stock market changed. There's a lot of false moves in market action, but there's just no arguing. Three things I look at positioning I'd say neutral sentiment I still believe is too bullish. However, I could be wrong there. That's the number one discretionary read. So my discretion if anything could be wrong. The data can't be wrong. The data is a data. Okay. The coot shows were neutral in stock positioning. Sentiment I see as too bullish. But we'll see. And uh the tape has been negative. Today went positive. So overall, that puts me in a position of I don't fight the tape. Okay? I don't care what my sentiment read is. I don't fight the tape. And the tape gave a pretty strong message today in my view. So out, right? Serest out. Shapiro out. We'll see how it all goes down from here.
Even into a long weekend, like you wouldn't have you just wouldn't have you wouldn't have seen this today. Really, you wouldn't have seen this today. Uh all things considered. At least I wouldn't have seen this today. All things considered. So, when the market's doing something that I don't see, then I'm not going to play. I'm not fighting the tape. I'm not saying the tape's wrong today. They don't know what they're talking about. That's not me. The tape is not wrong in my view. Could the market go back down? Sure. It's going down without me. Can it go straight up? Yes. It's also going up without me. Um, but you know, let's let's see. Dan Nathan, short oil, short stocks. Everyone's like, "How can oil go up 10% and stocks still go up?" Well, Dan Nathan, short energy, short stocks. Maybe it's just as simple as that, folks. I don't know. Um, we don't have to overthink it. Just don't trade. Fade. Find the people that are wrong uh a large amount of the time. It's not personal. It's data. And don't trade. Just fade them. Maybe it's just as simple as that. I don't know. Something to think about over the weekend because we got a long weekend. Um, we will have COT data coming out tomorrow, which is nice for once, but uh long weekend. So, I hope everyone enjoys it and uh we'll try to pick it up again on Monday and see where we're at.
Just a quick note, if you like these daily videos, we do them four days a week, Monday through Thursday. For members, I try to not only do a market wrap-up, but also what lessons we could have learned from the action today. observe the things that we talk about in live time, which helps I find a lot. If you want to join monthtomonth, YouTube membership is $10 and you can just click the join button right under this video. But if you wanted to do a little bit longer, a quarter or or or a year, the best way to do that is to go on So the link is in the description below. With this membership, you also get our coot charts for both the equity indices and the crypto. If that sounds worth it, you know, give it a shot and and we hope to see you there. All right. Thank you and uh we'll talk.