Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are doing well. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, September 26, 2025, in front of a crypto market that is a little red. So, in the last 24 hours, it continues to fall, but if we look at the opening of the daily candle, we have a little bit of green, so there's a small rebound happening, especially since the inflation figures came out at 2:30 PM. We'll talk about it, it shows inflation that is stagnating, and for now, investors are rather happy to see inflation stagnating.
Now, regarding Ethereum ETFs, it's not a frenzy. Since Monday, it's been selling every day. We're looking at about $500 million in Ethereum sales into ETFs this week. Not great. For Bitcoin, it's not very pretty either. We're probably around $4,500 million in sales. The market is in fear right now. Well, it has reason to be in fear given how it's falling, given the candle we made yesterday, which is not beautiful at all. Look at this, breaking here on the 50-day moving average. For now, the lower Bollinger Band is holding at $790 billion, that's better.
However, everything will be decided here. That is to say, if we have a small red candle, poof, like that, breaking the lower Bollinger Band, it will be a descent towards the 200-day moving average, which will be the biggest support for altcoins. In short, if we make a red candle, it's a direction of about -13% on altcoins, but it will be the biggest support for now. Are we surprised? Well, no, the structure continues its little evolution calmly. We had A here, B here, C here. Once the regular is finished, it's the descent. The direction is to break the bottom of A, which is at 695 billion. And 695 billion is where? It's exactly here, a little above the 200-day moving average. So, a scenario that could happen.
Afterwards, we're not there yet, but if the structure follows its evolution, it means we're going to look for the bottom of A to validate the structure, which is also the 100-day moving average, and in addition, it will reach the oversold zone on altcoins. It will be a great place to buy.
Regarding our beloved Bitcoin, yesterday's candle really united everyone, the not-so-beautiful candle. Our beloved Bitcoin is the same for validating the structure, as usual, nothing changes. Small A, small B, small C. We need to break at least $107,000. Can it go lower? Yes, we are on the lower Bollinger Band now. You see, we are even slightly below it. A small red candle is enough, and it will break the lower Bollinger Band. Direction: the 200-day moving average around $104,000. So, validating the structure, small A, small B, small C below $104,000, it's not unreasonable.
Moreover, it's even less unreasonable because if we zoom out a bit, we see that there are two lows to look for. The low here, made at the beginning of September, September 1st, at $107,200, and this low, made on July 1st, at the beginning of the holidays, at $105,6160. So, if the market wants to go and purge some liquidity, it will go below this low at $107,000 first, and below this low at $105,000, and below $105,000, the 200-day moving average at $104,000. So, in short, a scenario we can see everywhere is people saying, "Well, we'll look for the 200-day moving average, you see, around $104,000, and then it will rebound."
However, if we start breaking $104,000, then it could be less pretty because that would mean the market might go looking below $98,000 with this wick. And in that case, it won't be pretty, and the market could even go looking for $92,000. But be careful, these are hypotheses, for now, nothing has happened. For now, the only thing we're following is this large structure, small A, small B, small C, which has needed to break $107,000 for weeks and weeks. We are following this structure.
One piece of good news that you'll see today from everyone is the end of liquidity to the south. So, there's a little bit left around $107,000, and after that, there's not much. You see, it can go up to $106,500. It can even stop at $107,200, just below this little wick. You see? To validate the structure. A little push there, and boom, it's done. And then it can skyrocket to everything we have up to $118,000, for example. Knowing that there are large leverages here up to $115,700.
However, a scenario we wouldn't want is one that would be very tricky: that the structure decides to rebound suddenly, makes another tour of the short zone, and then decides to fall. If it does that, well, it's not nice at all. That is to say, we have wave A here, we make a small A, a small B, a small C, which would be the large wave B, to later make wave C. But the problem is, if wave B lasts like this, wave C will be uglier. And yes, it will go much lower. Whereas if wave C breaks now, it will go lower, you see? Yes. Because if wave B is made in three parts, it will take all the energy needed to boom and descend even lower. Well, that's the idea. So, we wouldn't want that to happen, if you want, otherwise it risks hurting a little more. We'll see.
Regarding Ethereum, well, Ethereum has touched its overbought zone. This is a very good zone to buy, meaning here at $3,800, it's a very good zone to do DCA for Ethereum. Last time it was April 6th, 7th, 8th, when it had touched the oversold zone. You see, so the oversold zone, that's very, very good, it creates bottoms, these oversold zones. I'm not saying Ethereum is at its bottom right now. It's possible, but in any case, the oversold zones mean that the bottom is clearly not far away.
Well, can it go down a bit more? Yes, it has the right to go into the oversold zone and go down a bit more. But in any case, the bottom, you see, it won't be very, very far. The bottom won't be at zero. That's the idea. Well, for now, the bears are still there, so be careful. It broke the lower Bollinger Band yesterday. Today, a green candle. We would need a second green candle to cancel the downward effect of the lower Bollinger Band. Because if tomorrow it makes another small red candle, the lower Bollinger Band will continue to widen, and the candles will continue to fall, unfortunately. So, for now, it's really a candle away.
Ethereum is being bought back here in its overbought zone, which is between approximately $3,700 and $3,900. However, if we zoom in, we see a small bullish channel, and that's not very pretty. We don't like bullish channels. It's like the bullish channel we had previously. You see, it's the same thing. Impulse, correction, equals continuation. Impulse, correction, equals, unfortunately, continuation. So, as long as it stays in this small bullish channel, boom, it will unfortunately be the descent that continues. After that, it can be a slow little fall.
The positive aspect of Ethereum is also that there isn't much liquidity to the south anymore. It can trickle up to 3007 if it wants, but there's not much. However, to the north, there's much more, up to 4004, you see. So, that's good news, that everything has taken a hit, but at some point, boom, it will rebound, you see. So, that's rather good news.
Now, regarding Solana. So, Solana's candle yesterday, same thing, not pretty at all, which broke the last supports. We are also on the lower Bollinger Band. In short, everyone is on their lower Bollinger Band. A small red candle is enough for everyone, and it will widen the lower Bollinger Band, and the descent will continue. However, a small green candle is enough for everyone, and then it's the opposite. We won't break the Bollinger Band, and with a green candle, we can try to rebound. So, it will be a candle away. You see, however, the bears are still there, they are still not friendly. So, be careful. Solana is the same, it's a not-so-pretty descent. And moreover, well, it's making a small bearish channel. So, we'll see if it's a continuation pattern or a short-term channel to rebound. We'll know soon.
Well, knowing that Solana, like everyone else, is very pretty. There's not much to the south, there's a lot to the north. So, can we expect Solana to suddenly boom and go up to $224? Yes, clearly, you see. So, we'll see this weekend. Will this weekend be a bit of a grind, a grind, you see? It's already been a little bit of a grind for Bitcoin to break $107,000, and then it validates the regular and boom, it rebounds. That's what we need, in short, that's what we need. A little grind to $107,000, and we won't talk about it anymore. The structure is finally validated after all this time, and then it can rebound strongly, you see, and we can have a good October. But as long as we don't break $107,000, even if it pushes suddenly, it could come back later to do $107,000 right after, and it will be annoying because it will last a long time. We'll say, "Yeah, October is great, I'm so happy," and then suddenly, boom, "Oh, what's happening?" You see? So, it needs to continue to nibble a little more, slowly, you see.
So, XRP, I was on Solana, and now on XRP, it's the same thing. XRP is on its lower Bollinger Band. A small red candle, and boom, it's off to the descent to reach the 200-day moving average at 254 and also its gap at 252. But that would be good news because it would be a very good zone to buy XRP, which would be almost in the overbought zone. So, ideally, that's what we need, you see, to finish. In short, the correction can finish in a few days, clearly, and then it's good, we'll start a good October. But Bitcoin really needs to validate its structure, damn Bitcoin, to break its $107,000, otherwise it could be pretty.
Well, regarding XRP, it's the same, there's not much liquidity to the south. That's good news for everyone. Understand XRP, yes, there's nothing. Well, there's almost, there's a little bit up to 260, so if it starts to target 260, it will go, it will go to 260. That's where it will just reach its 200-day moving average and its gap at 252, and we won't talk about it anymore. You see, so in fact, what do we need it to do in terms of structure? With Bitcoin, it's not obliged to reach the 200-day moving average at $104,000, but if it does, there will be almost nothing left. Imagine Bitcoin goes to $104,000, validates small A, small B, small C, validates all the liquidity, eats it, and you see, that will be the end, the end of the correction.
Ethereum is the same. Ethereum, well, Ethereum doesn't have major support, support is very far. Ethereum, Ethereum could stop for a very short time. It's not obliged to go lower. Except that it's already in the overbought zone. Ethereum is already in the oversold zone. There's no major support before $3,000. So, going to $3,000 is useless. It can stop well before, you see, it's almost at a bottom. For a device, just a small drop to reach, for example, 170, the 200-day moving average. It's not a small drop, let's see, -15%. Well, it's not small, but you get the idea. You reach here, the 200-day moving average at 167. You're in the overbought zone, so that smells like a bottom. You've liquidated the little bit that's left, so that smells like a bottom too. It's the same for XRP at 253. You reach your gap, the 200-day moving average, you're in the overbought zone, that smells like a bottom, and you've liquidated everything. That smells like a good bottom if all the cryptos do that. No, but that will smell like a bottom plus 1000, you see.
Well, now we'll see. It would need to do that because it would bother me if, for example, cryptos, sorry, I'm hitting the microphone, if Bitcoin rebounds suddenly and doesn't break $107,000. In that case, I would have to tell you, "Be careful, we could be on a wave B like this, and then later come back to $107,000." That would be annoying because we'll say, "Yeah," and then we'll get back up, and we'll go even lower. So, we wouldn't want that too much.
Well, now we'll follow it. We'll see what happens. So, why are the Euro Stoxx and Wall Street a bit in the green today? Because today was the day of the PCE inflation, which is the most important. The markets are happy, why? Well, look, it's extremely beautiful. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, on a rolling month, the market predicted 0.2%. The major forecasters, we are at 0.2%. Wow! That's great. If we take inflation, same thing, on a rolling month, but general, forecasters expected 0.3%, we are at 0.3%. Wow! They are so strong. If we take inflation on a rolling year, the general one, forecasters expected 2.7%. Wow, we are at 2.7%. Well, okay, we are higher than the previous month, so general inflation has risen, but it's not a big deal. We are exactly what the major forecasters thought, and core inflation, excluding energy and food, on a rolling basis, it's stagnating at 2.9%, but it's not a big deal, we are exactly what forecasters thought. And so, we have inflation that is persistent, and I'd say even rising, because general inflation on a rolling basis is not looked at as much. Core inflation is stagnating. General inflation went from 2.6% to 2.7%. So, the market could say, "Ah, that doesn't look good because inflation is still there and even rising by 0.1 point." But no, because we are exactly as the major forecasters thought, those who are totally off the mark on all the data they send us, but for PCE inflation, it's spot on.
Well, so, there you go. Well, however, we do have a slight increase in income, household income and household spending. That's also inflationary, but it's not a big deal. Why? Because we are exactly as the forecasters thought. General inflation is rising, but it's not a big deal because we are exactly as the major forecasters thought. That's why the market is green. At some point, the market might need to wipe its sunglasses because I think there's a lot of fog on them.
Well, so for now, the probability of rate cuts for October has slightly decreased. So, the green we see today, be careful, it might be a weekend green. The second rate cut for December has taken a hit, it's only 64% now. Well, so, to follow that, but I'm laughing, but what do I think about it? Well, that it's not great. Inflation is not falling. Core inflation is there, and especially general inflation has risen. So, it's not good news at all. Household spending has increased, household income, well, household income has increased. In any case, compared to last month, it's the same, but compared to forecasts, we are above, and household spending has accelerated compared to last month and forecasts. So, I don't think it's very good news. Clearly, tell me what you think. After all, maybe it's just me.
So, well, so the markets, the green, be careful though. Now, regarding ETFs, the S&P 500 started to open in the green, the Nasdaq too. It's starting to sell. So, maybe investors are starting to say, "Excuse us, but okay, we are according to the forecasts, but it's not good, is it?" That's maybe more it, you see. Well, so, green game, be careful. The gold is pushing, it understood. Its cousin, silver, is also pushing. The barrel is pushing. Ah, that doesn't look very good. It's still very inflationary. What else do we have? Crypto stocks, CoinB, it's not very pretty. MicroStrategy, it touched below $293, it's not pretty. MicroStrategy, the miners, it's not pretty. Look at Marathon falling, Riot too, H falling, Block falling, Galaxy falling, Gin Spark falling. Well, it's not pretty, clearly.
So, the US 10-year today, well, at the beginning it was green, now it's turning red. You see, when I prepared the video, it was green. I said, "Well, they are a bit too optimistic, these investors," but now it's good, it's turned red. Well, yes, because why? I said that green means they are buying Treasury bonds because they think we will have rate cuts. But now it's turned red again because, well, they now think, a few minutes later, that there is less probability of rate cuts and that what we had were slightly inflationary figures because inflation is still rising a bit. We've gone up by 0.1 point. So, the US 10-year continues to rise, which is not very good news. The 20-year is also in the green, which is not good news. And the 30-year, look, look, it started low. So, as soon as the figures came out, yeah, and then they looked at them, "No, wait, it's not, it's not great." And now, look, and now Treasuries are starting to get sold, you see, the green candle is starting to be sold a bit.
And the dollar is a bit in the red. But I wouldn't be surprised if this little dollar also ends up a bit in the green at closing tonight when, finally, the investors remove the fog from their glasses. Well, so, concretely, what do I think? Well, that it's not good because inflation is still there and even rising, we're going from 2.6% to 2.7%. So, that's not good. Jerome Powell won't tell you it's good. Core inflation is still almost at 3%. General inflation has risen, but we're cutting rates. That's it. Well, that's it. Moreover, last month's rate cut will have consequences in about 2 months, you see. Not this month. So, it's not going to stop inflation from rising even more. So, it's not good. In short, in any case, what we need is for it to nibble, to nibble. So that we don't talk about it anymore, I think if I bet my hat, everyone will look for their 200-day moving average, it will set the little bottom, and then it will rebound, you see, to then skyrocket all the liquidity that's to the north. That's what we need. Watch the structures, look for a good bottom, and then it's perfect to be able to rebound for October, November, December. Very good. Now, we'll see what happens. I send kisses. Thanks for listening. See you soon. Bye bye. He. [Music]