Transcription
So your take on the collapse of our 21 hours of talks and now the revised blockade not just of the entire strait but of the Iranian ports therein.
And I'm getting ready to drop a uh deep dive on the economic situation as well at natseg guy emerald.tv. Uh it'll be dropping in the next 24 hours. Basically, the entire um situation uh that we are facing is a disaster of our own making. Uh we are now escalating. You were right to bring up Dr. uh Pap's uh theory on escalation trap. The United States is choosing rather than deescalate, we are choosing to escalate.
Now, I was initially surprised that the president wanted to do a counter blockade, which is what this is. We're blockading their blockade uh of of the the the strait of Hormuz. And the reason I'm surprised he's doing that is first of all, you're right. It has the same impact as does landing forces on a place like Carg Island in terms of the international legal scenario. It's an act of war under international law. But second of all, and this is very key, a blockade is a protracted engagement. It basically, it's all the worst aspects in terms of the economic and political fallout from saying landing troops or or even doing an even bigger air war, but it has none of the immediate uh positive effects. There's no positive effects that will come out of this because as you rightly note, this thing is going to now involve us potentially stopping uh the the cargo ships and container ships of other countries uh and uh notably China.
Now, I just want to say something right here. I don't believe for a second that the United States Navy will in fact stop Chinese-owned vessels uh from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, from picking up oil that the Iranians have produced for China uh and leaving the strait of Hormuz. I think there's a lot of >> just to be just to be perfectly clear and I'm definitely going to let you finish. What Trump said and I'm quoting, I'm quoting is, "I have also instructed our navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran." So if you've paid the toll, he wants to interdict. And now there's the question of us closing the Iranian ports to all all vessels on route uh to Iran or leaving the Iranian ports. Well, they might be able to stop the vessels from crossing the strait of Hormuz in terms of just not letting them through, but I I really am suspicious that we're seriously going to board uh a a Japanese vessel. We know the Japanese paid the toll, right? Uh, I seriously doubt. And and you know, past this prologue here, the the Americans when we were doing our blockade of Venezuela in January, um, there was an opportunity. We had to seize a Panama flagged, Hong Konged uh containership and ultimately the president told the Navy, "Don't touch it." Because, of course, he's trying to get a deal with Xi Jinping on the larger trade uh formulation. So ultimately, I I have a deep suspicion that when it comes to a country like China or an ally like Japan, I I am very skeptical the president will honestly do that. And if he did that, particularly to China, not only would he lose any any ability to get a deal with China on these other outstanding issues, but now we're talking about a real world war potentiality here because now we're going after truly directly Chinese trade with Iran and the greater Middle East, which the Chinese military.
But let me ask you, Brandon, so what so, so what we have here, so there's two things. There's President Trump, well, Centcom narrowing the blockade that Trump announced yesterday. Trump said the whole strait. Yeah. Centcom this morning said no, the Iranian ports. Yeah. And in clarifying, Centcom said >> "Centcom forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas." All of them. So they said no one's coming in, like like like my favorite movie, Willy Wonka. Nobody ever goes in, nobody ever comes out. That's how it's going to be at the Iranian ports. Okay. And on top of that, you've got the Trump statement that anybody who tries to pay a toll and then leave the strait of Hormuz has been instructed by our Navy, seek and interdict every single vessel that does that in international waters. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas, says our president. So there's two things he says are going to happen there. You tell me though, because I agree with you. I'm very skeptical that he would do this to China, who he knows he has to negotiate with and who obviously is our biggest threat. Um, so what does he do? A Chinese ship starts coming in. They they're start coming down the strait of Hormuz and they want to port, you know, make port at an Iranian port.
Pull in, I guess. I'm not a boater. My husband is. Pulling in at an Iranian port. We're We're not going to stop them, >> but we're going to stop, >> like I said, we're going to stop what, like this Spanish ship. I don't like any other ship. We're going to start choosing. Yeah, we might start enforcing it on, for instance, I mean, you're already seeing we're having this fallout with Spain uh over, you know, related separate issue though. Um, and uh the president is already going hard after Spain, telling the Chinese, don't you dare continue doing trade with Spain because of these other issues we're having with them over their support for NATO or lack thereof, over their support or lack thereof for the Iran war and some other trade issues with Spain. So I could foresee the president to make a point, goes after one of our nominal allies like Spain, stops their ships. I would be very surprised if the president actually goes ahead with stopping a a Chinese flagged vessel. I I really don't think he's going to do that. I think they'll be he'll let it pass. Uh they'll probably try to cover the incident up, not let it get out publicly that it happened. But I'm deeply suspicious because ultimately, let's face it, if the president really does this and he starts stopping up Chinese flows, which okay, it might have a a temporary hit on the Chinese economy, but ultimately we know that China has had ample time to prepare themselves for such a contingency. So the entire idea that we attacked Iran to harm Chinese energy access, it hasn't really panned out that way. The Chinese have had time to build up their own strategic reserve. They've had time to diversify their own their own assets. They're increasing what they're bringing in from nearby Russia. They're they're getting it from elsewhere, the the energy sources. And then what we're finding out is that after 15 or 10 years of developing their alternative energy structure, their infrastructure, it turns out the Chinese are actually well positioned to lead the pivot that the, you know, the left has always wanted in America. But the Chinese might actually lead the pivot to renewable alternative energy sources because they've spent the last decade building up their infrastructure to prepare for this very eventuality where the Americans might try to blockade their access to energy. So I'm skeptical the the impact will be the desired impact by Trump, which is to hurt China economically and energy-wise. Uh I don't think that will happen anyway. And I also think again, the president has to get a deal with China on these other outstanding trade issues. There will be no deal if we start interfering in their their flow of goods. Lastly, I'll just >>
That's that's just what one another it's yet another problem of this of the war and the consequences of it. This is supposed to be an easy take down of the Iranian regime. We're in, we're out. Mission accomplished, Venezuela style. it. Now we're talking about blockades of China from getting its oil. I mean, this is this is next level. And any ship, any ship from any country. So I mean, it is part of the escalation trap that we've been talking about from Professor Pap. And we have that queued up. He was on here last week >> a week and a half ago. And here's how he phrased it. And that's why I uh laid out before the war started these stages of escalation that we were going to go through where uh stage one would be the smart bombs would hit targets. They would kill leaders, but they would not achieve any meaningful strategic outcome. You wouldn't get the enriched uranium. You wouldn't topple the regime. Uh and that would then lead to stage two, which is where the opponent lashes back. That's the horizontal escalation campaign. Uh and that then leads to the them getting Hormuz. Uh and then now, and that happened. And again, I'm laying out these stages before the first bomb fell. Now we're at stage three, which is the ground operations are nearing. This is truly the red line, Megan. It gets harder to get out of. And once we cross into the next phase of ground operations, oh my goodness gracious, Megan. And you've seen already how uh we reacted when we lost 13 dead at um in the extraction from Afghanistan and all that motion that was brought out. Imagine you have um 100 dead paratroopers coming into Car or 100 dead Marines going on the beach. That 36% is going to be extremely committed more than ever because that 36% that supports the war, they're going to think in their minds, they're dying for me.
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So right now Brandon, we don't have boots on the ground, but we are getting closer with this blockade. The only thing I will will say that that gives me a glimmer of hope in this is that clearly whatever the president ordered two weekends ago uh with the, you know, whatever the supposed rescue of the airmen uh in the heart of Iran near Isfahan, one of the suspected nuclear weapons sites, whatever happened went so badly that the US military, we were able to get our people out of there, but it was a very tense situation. There seemed to be a moment where the president had a moment of clarity like, I can't I can't go forward with this uh and he >>
Can you elaborate on that >> because there's a question about whether told the full truth that rescue of the two >> pilots. Yeah. And just to be clear, I I have no idea for sure what happened. That we live in the most censorious age imaginable. So getting getting the truth out is very difficult. But I believe we probably did save our pilot and that Wizzo, this weapons uh officer from the downed F-15 Strike Eagle. I don't know if we did it on the day that the situation in Isfahan happened. We might have done it before. It might have been done, you know, that plus some kind of uranium hunt uh in Isfahan. It was a massive force that we sent in there. Um, we landed C-130. Rand Paul was raising this question online suggesting we weren't being told the full story behind why those pilots were where they were and that all these planes there were were not all sent just to get our pilot out, our our wizzo. Whatever they were sent because it was part of an attempt to get the enriched uranium out of Iran and it didn't go well. This is unconfirmed, but Rand Paul and many military experts have been all over X suggesting that's the real story and it's not. That is unconfirmed and it's denied by the administration.
It is. And if you but if you do look at the way they arrayed those forces and the kind of, you know, the kind of troops we brought in, the numbers of equipment and whatnot, it certainly didn't seem like only a rescue mission. Uh if you were going to do a uranium hunt, you would need to land those transport planes on a site near the the suspected WMD site. You would then need to flow in more forces. That's exactly how it played out uh in uh two weekends ago outside of Isfahan. Um, again, my understanding is despite the loss of the equipment, we got everybody out and it was okay. But what I'm getting at here is there was a moment it seemed like where the president kind of came out of his stupor and said, "Oh, I can't I can't land, guys." That's when you had the context of we're going to talk about ceasefire. Ceasefire obviously didn't go well. I thought for sure after the ceasefire collapsed, Trump was going to order troops somewhere into Iran, but the fact is he pulled the blockade out, the counter blockade, which is bad. But it actually indicates to me that there is a lot of hesitation on his part to actually follow through on deploying troops. I think because he knows this thing could go upside down fast. So what that means is we're going to have to endure blockade.
Yes. And the counter blockade though, >> that's one blessing of this whole thing is that every representation that Netanyahu has made to him continues to fall apart. And I think the president is starting to distrust his partner and realize he's been misled and that it's not going to be anywhere near as easy as Netanyahu suggested it would be. And he's starting to get more cautious as he sees how unpopular this war is over here, not just with the left, but with the right.
Yeah. And my hope is that maybe if this, I mean, the counter blockade is going to do a lot of economic damage to us. Uh, but my hope is is that in a few weeks the president realizes I can't possibly stop Chinese ships without this becoming a world war possibly. It's no benefit to the American people. It's certainly no benefit politically for Trump and the Republicans. Hopefully at that point, there's some kind of an off-ramp. Uh, but I think he's going to go through this counter blockade partly to satisfy, you know, whatever he's doing with Netanyahu to show, hey, I'm still engaged. But ultimately, it's not going to have the impact they think it will. Uh, partly because there's I don't see how they're going to enforce this blockade on the Chinese. And if they do, well, the Chinese are going to do something. They're not going to just not do anything. Uh, they're going to respond in some way. And I would just also point out, we now know that the Israelis were bombing uh over a week ago, they were bombing in Iran in their airstrikes a very key railway that has since been rebuilt, I'm told. But that railway connected Iran to China. It was through their Belt and Road initiative. That's a key strategic linkage overland to Beijing for Iran. It is not inconceivable that if we did really make this blockade serious, the Iranians would likely find a way to transport their energy supplies over land into Central Asia into China. Uh, and the and the Chinese would continue flowing in their weapons and and material to help Iran better resist us. So, okay. Yeah, there's there's >>
Now we're getting too deep deep in the weeds, but I I got it. I got it. Um, but as far as the economic consequences to Americans, uh, we played the one Eric Bowling soundbite on $110 oil, which translates into increased energy prices from gas and diesel and beyond here in America. He was predicting five to six percent inflation possible. Here's another one from Bowling responding to a Mark Levin claim that um, you know, the economic effects on Americans, it's just going to be a short time thing, just short term here. Listen here to Sat 6.
He is completely wrong on this and I will tell him this. I'll have this conversation with him or or debate him on the economic effects of what's going on. He wrote it off as the American people are going to feel the price of a gallon of gasoline for a little while. That is frankly BS, my friend. Everything is fuel related. Everything is petroleum related products. Transportation and when you have this the situation, we're pushing $110 a barrel here, $130 a barrel for Brent, $150 a barrel for minister crude. All prices will go up. They have to go up and they'll continue to go up. So, a temporary blip is is is insulting to me. It's frankly insulting. And Mark Levin, I would love to have this conversation with you directly. Here's why. Um, it's not temporary. And we literally removed a president, President Biden, for bringing inflation up. The last inflation number we just saw, Steve, has inflation tripling, energy inflation tripling month over month from February to March. That's one month.
Yep. Yep. And is that what you're showing, too?
Yeah. No, I I think we're we're slated for a minimum of 4.5% inflation rate by by the summer. Uh I know Bowling was saying it's going to be higher. It might end up being higher. There's going to be a very um a very awkward moment here for the United States because Trump wants to get rid of Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, who's very very serious about keeping inflation down. So he combats that with higher interest rates. The president has wanted to replace Powell with this guy Kevin Walsh, who's very anti-high interest rates. I don't like interest rates being high either. But the reason you raise interest rates, this is basic economics, is because you have to bring down inflation. Inflation is the destroyer of of any semblance of wealth in the country. It's the destroyer of the currency. It's a destroyer of the economy long term. If you let it run free, you get the Weimar Republic uh from the 1930s Germany, which of course is not good. Uh so my fear is that we are doing this counter blockade, which is yet it's going to completely increase the price of oil, which will then increase inflation and it's not going to be a blip. It's going to be the rest of the year.
Just as an FYI for the listening audience, the US inflation rate right now is at 3.3% compared to 2.4% last month and 2.4% last year. So you're talking about over four polling suggesting could be as high as five or six. You know, under Biden, we were looking at double digit and and we were still suffering greatly under Biden when it got down to nine and people were that that's I think where it was when we evicted him from the office. Uh, but we definitely are going in the wrong direction. Going in the wrong direction. And even if it's a temporary blip, how supply chains work is it will have cas I mean, just remember the supply chain disruptions in Co uh, you know, when we ultimately reopened those supply chain disruptions, higher prices, higher inflation rates were with us for years after we reopened in 2020 from the COVID shutdown. So this notion that, oh yeah, it'll be a temporary blip. It is even if the price of energy came down, those knock-on second and third order effects are still going to be rippling through the entire economy for months and possibly years to come. Thanks for watching this clip. If you're new here, subscribe. We got a whole lot more goodness where that came from. Would love to hear your feedback. You can email me too, Megan Megnancell.com, or just leave a comment below. But join the community by becoming a subscriber. We really, really value your input and your support. We may not always agree, but we are always going to talk about it with respect. No BS, no agenda, no fear.