Transcription
I thought the war would be light and then it would rise, but no, it got hit again by a strengthening dollar, pressing it down. For example, if it rises but doesn’t break through the 61.8 level or something like that, then it still has a chance to continue falling. There’s about 4115, or if it opens a gap or whatever, 4120, which is the level it should not break on the downside. I think it still has a chance to go below 4,000, around the previous area, at 3,960, or even more than that, there might be about 3,930 as well, which has a chance to make a new low. We still view it as a move down to form Wave 4, because the high was Wave 3, and it is pulling down to make Wave 4. For the target, I will look at how far Wave 4 will pull back, by drawing a Fib from Wave 2 to Wave 3 to find the target for the move down to form Wave 4. On the Daily Time Frame, what we see now is that when it reaches the significant Fibonacci support level, is that Fib support starting to show a reversal signal in 4 conditions? The main trend is still a downtrend. When we see 4 conditions below the EMA 89 and 200, what we will consider is that the rise will be a technical rebound.
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Teacher Kai, I would like you to analyze gold, please. Because last time, Teacher Kai’s analysis was very accurate. At that time, one month ago, gold was around 4,400–4,500, and Teacher Kai warned that we were in a Wave 4 consolidation, and in this Wave 4, we should be careful with the EMA 200 level. If it breaks down, it might drop to 3,945. Teacher Kai might be one of the first people I talked to who said it could go below 4,000. At that time, you were one of the first to say below 3,9… actually at that time it was at 4,400–4,500, everyone, but you had a target of 3,945. And it turned out that gold dropped to 3,960, which is quite close, only 15 dollars off, but wow, from 4,400–4,500 to here, that’s still a deep drop. The question everyone wants to know is: has Wave 4 finally bottomed here, or does Teacher Kai think there is still a chance to go lower? And what levels are you looking at? And what level must not be broken from here? And also, how do we know when Wave 4 consolidation is finished? Please go ahead.
Okay, so for gold right now, we still view it as a move down to form Wave 4, because the high was Wave 3, and it is pulling down to make Wave 4. And for the target, I will look at how far Wave 4 will pull back, by drawing a Fib from Wave 2 to Wave 3 to find the target for the move down to form Wave 4. Previously, it broke the 23.6 Fib level, so we look at the 38.2 Fib level, which is at 3,945. This is the picture on the Monthly Time Frame, which tells us that Wave 4 has a significant support at the 38.2 Fib level. After seeing the Monthly Time Frame, we will look at the Weekly Time Frame. On the Weekly Time Frame, has it reached the oversold zone (30)? This picture says it hasn’t reached yet, and normally Wave 4 might not go that far. But on the Daily Time Frame, what we see now is that when it reaches the significant Fibonacci support level, the next thing we need to look at is: has this Fib support started to show a reversal signal in 4 conditions? For gold, we can see that two conditions have occurred: on the Daily Time Frame, RSI has dropped to the 30 zone, and the Daily Time Frame has formed a bullish divergence. For gold, at the significant Fibonacci support, we see two conditions, but the third condition has not yet occurred, which is the bounce to form Wave 1 and pullback to Wave 2. Because of that, for gold on the Daily Time Frame, it’s better to wait. Wait until all 4 conditions are met before looking again for gold.
Hmm, so if we want Wave 4 to finish its consolidation, Teacher Kai says to focus on the Daily Time Frame to say, "Hey, there’s a chance that the Wave 4 consolidation could end." But it’s still not easy. In the meantime, on the 1-hour time frame, it might sometimes happen, and we can trade in cycles. Does the 1-hour picture have a bounce? We’ve seen gold recover in the last couple of days, and it’s quite significant. Does it meet your conditions?
Okay, for trading, on the 1-hour time frame, it is a trading range. If we look at the main trend on the 1-hour time frame, the main trend is still a downtrend. When we see 4 conditions below the EMA 89 and 200, what we will consider is that the rise will be a technical rebound. For the set that just completed one round of trading, we saw a drop into the oversold zone (30) on the 1-hour time frame, a bullish divergence formed, then it made a 1-2 wave structure and broke up. That set broke up and reached the 161.8 Fib level, completing one round. But we see this as a technical rebound because the 1-hour time frame is still below the EMA 89 and 200. So for trading this set, if you want to trade bounces, the upside target will not be very large. Wait until the 1-hour time frame candle closes above the EMA 89 and 200 first. Then we can say that the reversal on the 1-hour time frame is more certain. But for now, it’s still a downtrend, so wait for it to form a 1-2 pattern for a while; better to wait.
Okay, so it’s a bounce within a downtrend. Even if the conditions are complete, but because it’s still below both the EMA 89 and 200, the bounce reaching its target means that there are people waiting to sell. As Teacher Kai said, so now when it reaches the target, it might drop again. Then we find the next cycle to trade, until we start to see the 1-hour time frame stand above the 89 and 200 again, then the daily time frame might start to form a beautiful wave pattern on this side, because we have 2 conditions counted, and 2 more conditions remain for gold. Okay, very interesting. Let’s go with gold, because gold right now, people are very interested in how this pattern is consolidating. Is it finished or not? How do you view gold, Brother Ong?
Yes, gold. I thought the war would be light and then it would rise, but it got hit again by a strengthening dollar, pressing it down. Because after Kevin Watch, who will be the new Fed chairman, held his first Fed meeting, many parties thought, "Hey, he might be a dove." But actually, he turned out to be a hawk. He said the Fed will raise interest rates this year, which strengthened the dollar, and gold dropped sharply. So if you ask, it still shows no sign of a trend change for gold. Looking at the wave structure, it’s a consolidation pattern in an A-B-C wave set. It’s a consolidation in an ABC wave. Let me capture the chart first. And this is A, this is B, and the rest is C, all C, CAT, CAT, CAT. CAT has 5 waves: 1 here, 2, 3, and 4, and this whole chunk is 5.
Uh-huh.
But 5 itself also has 5 waves. It looks like this is 1, 2, and this set is like 3, and it might not even be finished. So simply put, draw a Fib here, that's enough. Let me show you. Draw a Fib here. If the rise does not break through 61.8, it’s still not good. Just like the previous round, we tried drawing a Fib and it got stuck exactly at 61.8 and then dropped. So this time is the same: suppose it rises and then...
...doesn’t break through the 61.8 level, something like that. Let me show you where that is. Then it has a chance to continue falling, because it’s making lower lows and lower highs. So we will still confirm, or rather, we expect it to be in the short side. Let me draw a Fib here. For the latest mark, change the time frame to 1-hour.
Most recently, in the short term, it’s a picture of a recovery. So we draw a Fib here. It will have roughly 4115, or if there’s a gap or something, 4120, which it should not break.
So if it touches this level, it will be a short. That is, here it’s 40… 4040, right? 4040. I calculated 4120, that’s 80 dollars. If trading in the mini market, like MGO, now it’s 1:1, so multiply by about 10 times leverage, multiply by 30, so it can accept losses, because it’s not like the big size that multiplies by 300. So anyone can wait a bit, wait around the resistance zone around, say, 4,050, 4,0… something like that, and then set a stop loss above 4,150 – sorry, I said it wrong – above 4,120 as a stop loss point.
For the downside, I think it still has a chance to go below 4,000. Around the previous area, at 3,960, or even more than that, there might be about 3,930 as well, which has a chance to make a new low.
So it’s a short, a short.
Okay, this is gold. We were just talking about the spot price. Brother Ong, will you give the U numbers, or should I calculate them?
Oh, I can tell you directly. Use the same concept for GOU. We draw a Fib here. It has around 4,174 – 4,174, so let’s say.
Okay, a little noise.
Let’s bring the camera and help analyze.
So here it is, around 41… 4,174. If there’s a gap, let’s say 4,180 to round it off, and then open…
Around 4,100, uh, from 4,100 up, 4,100–4,115, that’s a resistance area. You can open there. And on the downside, there will be 4,000, 4,000, exactly 4,000, maybe 4,020, about exactly 4,000, as the lower zone.
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