Transcription
Let's take a look at where the ceasefire talks, uh, between the United States and Iran stand at this moment. Both sides say progress has been made on a potential, uh, framework agreement that could pause the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's nuclear program is a major obstacle, with disagreements on what to do with Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Okay, let's take this on, uh, with our guest now. Joining us from Iran's capital is Farzad Dadi, who's a professor at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran, and also here in the studio, Paul Musgrave, who's an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in here in Qatar and also a US foreign policy analyst. Gentlemen, welcome. And Paul, I'd like to start with you, if I may. How do you assess the state of play right now? We have this White House cabinet meeting taking place later today, and I guess all eyes will be on that.
I think that's right. I think for President Trump right now, the story of this week is about domestic politics. He's working to shore up his position domestically by making sure that critics of his position, like Senator John Cornyn, who just lost a primary race in Texas, are purged from the Republican caucus. And he's also working to make sure that he has all parts of the Republican party apparatus on board with whatever he chooses to do in Iran. He doesn't want to have any sort of criticism from his right flank. I think that what we'll see with this cabinet meeting is going to be a lot of praise of Trump, a lot of belief and expressions of belief about how President Trump is managing this war well, a lot of messaging, in other words, designed to persuade American voters, but especially his base, that President Trump has this well in hand, despite, you know, frankly, the objective considerations of the circumstances in which the geometry of this, uh, conflict has not changed, and we're all just waiting to see if the two biggest issues in these negotiations can be formed.
But there is dissonance at the top, isn't there? Because, you know, President Trump is seemingly keen for a deal, but there are those hardliners within the cabinet who, who want to continue and and gain maximum concessions from Iran.
And I think that is exactly why President Trump wants to have displays of unity. He wants to show any would-be critic that they need to tread carefully because President Trump, if you go to his Truth Social page, has been celebrating the Republican members of Congress that he has defeated and the fact that his endorsees have done really well here. That is a message not just to Democrats or the American people, but to targeted folks who might otherwise criticize him. You know, this is somebody who has taken down, in the past week, two, three incumbent members of Congress, including at least two US senators. That's a really strong display. It raises other problems in the medium term, but President Trump worrying about criticism, especially from folks like Roger Wicker, a senator from Mississippi, uh, Lindsey Graham, the hawkish senator from South Carolina, he wants these people to come back on board. So he has a free hand with Tehran.
It's interesting how domestic politics enters into the fray of all of this, isn't it? Farzad Dadi there in Tehran. This cabinet meeting at the White House, it comes after US airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz, uh, and subsequent Iranian threats. How do you think the Iranian leadership itself views the likelihood of a return to conflict, or can you see resolution in the pipeline?
You know, let me agree with your, uh, guest in studio and let me add the fact that we have this 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. So, not only Trump has to manage all these senators, he needs to have them agree with the outcome of these negotiations. We already know that the war doesn't have enough votes in the US Congress. Last time they took a vote in the Senate, it came out 50-47 against the war. And they had to shut down the House in order to avoid a vote because, uh, Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, didn't have enough votes to go forward. Last time they took a vote in in the House, the outcome was 212 to 212.
Okay. But what about there? I just want to just just just bring us back to the situation there in Tehran, because that's your area particularly of expertise. I know you know the story across the board, but there in Tehran, what is your sense about the mood and the sense of possibility here or not?
You know, in Tehran, they're watching what's going on in DC and they realize that Trump may be making promises on the nuclear, uh, agreement or whatever agreement he has with Iran without the proper authorization from the US Congress. And they're going to be much more careful because they remember that they were attacked in the middle of negotiations two times. And this time things are getting more serious. But Trump is interested in negotiations because he wants to lower oil prices, because he wants to avoid a defeat in in the elections, midterm elections. And he may be making promises that he cannot deliver. And one reason he has to approach the government of Qatar, other governments, is because he doesn't have permission. So they have to do something on financial issues so he can avoid violating the law. So here, people understand these things. They, they follow American politics closely. Okay. And they realize that, uh, we may have difficulties.
Paul, this is the thing, isn't it? Trump says he, he wants, what was it? A good deal or or no deal. But is, is a good deal remotely within reach given the hardline stance both sides have on certain issues?
One of the key questions here is a good deal for whom? And a good deal for Donald Trump is one that ends the fighting, allows him to take enough credit that it looks like a win, and move on to the next issues on his domestic and international agenda. That might not be a good deal for the United States. It might not even be a good deal for Israel. And that's why you have hardliners in Washington, in Jerusalem, and in Tehran who are trying to scupper this deal, who are trying to block these negotiations through actions, words, and deeds because they want to make sure it's a good deal for them. And their definition of what that is is much different. But for President Trump, he wants a political victory because he wants to put all this behind him and move on. Talk about everything from the cost of living and his progress, the progress he wants to make to, can't believe this is true, the UFC championship that's going to happen on the White House lawn this weekend.
Right. Absolutely. And fundamental to all of this is the nuclear issue, of course, and that, that is absolutely the bottom line. Farzad Dadi there in Tehran, what guarantees, uh, would Iran need from the United States to accept the destruction or indeed the handover of the nuclear material? What, what would that, what would the terms of that be?
I don't think Iran is available to hand over the enriched uranium that Iran has. There is this analysis here that if Iran does that, Iran will be attacked by nuclear tactical weapons. The only reason Trump hasn't used these weapons is because of these materials, because he realizes that that is permission to, uh, Iran to build nuclear weapons of its own if they are attacked by American nuclear weapons. The, the only thing that Iran has that is serious and Trump cannot do much about it is the control of the Strait of Hormuz, and that is going to be the guarantee for for the future because the Iranian government has realized that if the US abandons the agreement, like last time it was Trump that left the previous agreement in 2018, then that is going to be the leverage that Iran has to make sure that the US government behaves properly.
Professor Farzad Dadi at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran, and here in the studio, Paul Musgrave, associate professor, uh, of government at Georgetown University here in Qatar. Thanks, gentlemen. Thanks very much.