Transcription
Hey everybody, welcome back. So, we have a lot to go over tonight. The very first thing I think we really need to address is the S&P. We're going to clean all this off. We obviously have to go and talk about what's going on with those monster moves in memory and storage and what's going on with silver and gold and the separation we're seeing there. But I think the most important thing for us to focus on is this movement that happened on today. And then you could kind of see this big sell-off. And then what did we do? We tried to get through see our level right here. And you're kind of hitting the same areas with as this new contract continues, right? And I kind of wanted to wait a little bit before I did this video tonight just to show the follow through because I think it's super important that what they're doing is a lot of old school shake and bakes and we're seeing that whether you're using things along the lines of the moving averages, watching them slice and dice us that way or some of the other tools that you could be using where you're using something like the volume profile.
If we take a look at that right here and we just click over and we can just see how you're getting right to the top of that value area high again from that peak. I think that's super important as well. Um, and these are definitely areas of interest to me that we have to watch tomorrow. But if we just dive into this on a 5minute chart super quick and take a look at that, you can see you're pushing. You're definitely pushing and I think that's really important. So, we're definitely going to want to watch that area tomorrow.
If we click over very quickly and just take a look at the NQ before we dive into this. This one's going to be short, sweet, and to the point. Um, and we can see that we are over the point of control and the value high is right here. And we keep fighting it. Now, for those that don't know, what we're doing is we're just marking off that peak and then we're watching how we act there. And you can see today you're down and everyone's worried. The end of the world, silver's falling, gold's falling, the dollar, everything else that's going on in the world. And what do we do? We push right through it.
Now, if we take a look at the cash market for a second, and I think that this is super important for us to get. Uh, I would imagine and hope to God that's not real because that's going to be a really bad day with that print. But if we go and take a look here for a second and and it looks like that is not a real print thankfully. Um, you're going to see that we're going to try to get through up here again, right? That's where that call wall is at 700. And we tried to get through that. Watch. Let's get rid of the cash. Just get the cash so you can see it. Then we're going to drop this down because I think it's super important that you got through 695 and you're trying to push through 700. Take a look at the cues. And again, what we're going to do is we're going to leave this off and just show you that 626 and how you're hitting that 628 again. And these are those matumbo levels that we kept talking about and we've been talking about. Watch what happens when I go all the way back through this. And then if I take a look at that very very closely, look what happens. So we could just see that area right in here where it just keeps bonking. Bonk bonk bonk bonk bonk bonk right over and over again. And so what do we do today? We hit it.
But what we're seeing is we're seeing rotation. We're seeing consistent rotation throughout the sectors. And this is exactly what we've been talking about. And you can even see it with something like UFO, which was hot. This was one of the things that if you're in the community, I went over this yesterday um in the week ahead video. And one of the reasons that I brought it up was this. And I'll show you. We'll clean it all off and we'll go to a 4 hour so that you guys can do it for yourself. Uh from Saturday's video, I got a lot of requests to start doing educational videos again. So, we'll start. But if you kind of look at these higher highs in here, right on that 15 minute, drop that to a 4 hour and now look what happened, right? And you can see it coming. And the point that I was talking about yesterday with this was like, hey, this is really a big divergence and you're probably going to come in and head down to a level like here. Um, and that's exactly what's transpired. And we're seeing that happen right here. So, I can't stress how important that is uh for us and that we are seeing that happen right in here and that that is definitely something that is on our radar and something that we're going to uh most certainly pay attention to. I can't can't stress that enough.
So, what does that mean for us and and what are we doing with it? Yep. It's definitely an area of interest. And so, what we're going to do is we're going to clone this and then we're going to drop this down. Um, and then we're going to just see that you broke out of there and you can see where this UFO is going and how big of a deal that's going to be. And it's going to be a big deal. It definitely is. It's definitely something that's on our radar. Uh, it's certainly something that we want to pay attention to and I cannot stress that enough. So, what we're going to do is we're going to do just that. We're going to pay attention to it, but you're rotating through. And this is the point that I'm getting at. You are constantly rotating. So, when people are looking at names like as going, "Oh, do I get in or do I get out of it?" Well, the biggest thing for me with something like this is that hey, you're right at that area, that 103, and then you broke it, tries to rally, broke it, but you're not getting through that 120 level. You just, you had that big day obviously, but once again, just matumboed over and over again. So, what does this mean? You're just rotating.
Now, this in particular, why I'm on it, I mean, you did kind of shatter here. And I do think if we got a little closer on this one, I'll show you show you. There's a smaller one one right here that you shattered. So you start walking down the fan. It doesn't mean you're going to get to here, but you do want to start watching and seeing if this starts to roll. We saw this with RKLB2. And so what you're seeing is exactly what I always preach, which is index sector stock. The index is not really going anywhere, right? You're not really falling out of bed and you're not really rallying. You're just in this kind of just kind of area where I keep saying we're going to break out one day, you know, and that's coming and so is Christmas apparently. But if we go and take a look here at UFO, you're just rotating through the sectors. And that's exactly what you're doing here. So you're seeing this massive rotation over and over again. It's very frustrating for people when they're not in a trending market because they don't understand why there's no follow-through. You're just they're just putting their money into the areas that they think are the best.
You are getting some real definitive trends though, and we're going to address that. And I don't know that this is the end of the UFO space. I'm not really so sure on that. I'm not really ready to write it off. I see it. Uh, I see the levels if we do the simplest of things and we drop down to 22 here I can see that as well and yeah that is the first time that we closed under that for this period of time. So are drone and space names at risk after the space XI news about them merging tonight? Well the one that really benefits the most from that is SATS. They didn't really move on it. So I think that you're just having some outflows here but that doesn't mean that these names can't come in if they don't hold support and retest those 55s. So we just want to be ready with our key levels.
But there are two definitive things going on here. If we understand what's going on there, the number one thing that I see out of everything is this IGV. And this IGV just continues to look awful and just continues to fall down. Now, people could say it's just the software space because of what's going on with open AI and and everything else. And software is going to get eaten by AI. I mean, I had this talk before, you know, software is going to eat the world and now AI is going to eat software and and the game goes on. But I think that this is more important than that. And I think that there's some things here that we really need to focus on. Number one, the biggest thing for me with this that I think that is super important is that when we look at something like this, we understand the driver. And to me, the driver is that something like an open AI is no longer a tailwind. It's no longer like the wind on our back. It's like the wind on our face slapping us. And so that's really what's happening over and over again with Oracle. And that's one of the reasons why Oracle's doing this today. We actually shorted this. Uh it's been a great short and I think it's going to continue to be a really good short. Uh people got excited over the equity financing. It's dilutive. I never I didn't really understand it, but they squeezed the shorts off the open. And this was just really beautiful, you know, the way that they did this. I'll show you it. Um and what they did was they just they panicked everybody. Oh, it's a good equity financing. Moody's came out and said it's a great equity financing. And you can just see the rally and then the fade. And it's always pretty easy to see this stuff when you use RSI. I mean, even just using the simple cross of the RSI over the moving average and saying, "Geez, look where you topped on a fivem minute." like it's just pretty clean, right?
So, and then what we did at the end of the day, and this is just that where it hit at 4 a.m. and we couldn't really get back to that level, which is interesting, but I do think that the low day close and then when you smashed through this, it's pretty telling that you have a problem and they're going to have to price the equity in the hole if they're going to want to get it done. I don't know why people thought the equity was going to price at a premium. That didn't really make a lot of sense to me. So, it's a pretty easy short when you really think about it. Like, why would it price at a premium? Why wouldn't they just go on the open market and buy it? No, they're gonna have to price it in the hole or what we refer to as a discount. So, you're getting pressure there because of the open AI. Um, and you know, he had a really interesting comment today that Open AI is not fast enough because of Nvidia's chips. I I really don't have words at this point. Um, but I do think that he's got a lot of he's got a lot of stuff he's got to work through. A lot a lot of issues there. You know, he's he's got to work through.
Uh, if we take a look at something like Microsoft right here and we could just see how this is going and we're just going to watch um what we're seeing on something like this. very very clearly Microsoft trying to push through and then we could see those levels right there. And when we see those levels, what do we want to do with them? Well, we just want to pay attention to them, right? We really just want to pay attention to those levels so that we know that we have a real big issue there. And when we see that issue, what do we want to do with it? Well, we just want to focus on it for a second because soon as you smash, your gap fills down to that 394 level. So, we have some issues here that they really have to address. And I'm short. So, because I think they're going to gap fill. I think that's where this is heading and then we'll kind of figure out what where we're going to go from there.
But what we're seeing is the exact opposite side of that on the socks and we're seeing the socks start to push and rotate. But it's the same names. I feel like it's Groundhog Day. And what it is is I can't stress this enough guys. You're going to have tons of volatility with these names as people try to figure this out. You know, when earnings came out here and they guided, just so we're clear, they you were supposed to earn $3.60 on SanDisk. You earned 620. So you crushed. Then on top of that, you're supposed to next quarter you're supposed to do four and change. They said we're going to do 12 to 14. So not only did they beat this quarter by 71%, they're they're saying we're going to double the quarter we just beat by 71%. And I I just don't think people got this when they it sold down. You know, I've been saying this for over a year now or probably close to two that this market really doesn't do its homework with fundamental analysis. And and if you do, there's a huge edge in it. You know, it's it's actually crazy. I think people have so much information they don't know what to believe or what they're supposed to be looking at. I think it's actually information overload at this point. But that's why the name's moving the way that the name is moving. And it's just the same soup reheated. You're seeing that with Micron and you're seeing it with Western Digital, which also as a conference tomorrow you might want to pay attention to. Uh and so we're getting the storage and the memory names over and over again, right? And people are saying, "Oh, they're too high." When you go and look at the earnings and you go and you as long as the earnings are there, they're really not.
Now you have some other things that hit tonight where you have PLTR. I actually thought this was pretty good. I thought this was really good. Now whether it stays up or they sell the news, I don't know. But I thought the conference call was decent. The guide was higher than expected. The earnings were much better than what they were looking for. You're up by 8% on a beat, 4% on a big number on the revenue side. So I like what you're seeing here and I think that this is something that we really want to pay attention to tomorrow for sure. Also tomorrow you have AMD and that's definitely one on the radar. I'll clean up all off off all my levels. So you have these secondary or tertiary names that are coming out, right? And then like the PLTRs that are kind of by themselves a little bit and then you have the sectors that are moving and I think the sectors are what's really important.
So the question then becomes, you know, what's the driving force? Is it going to be the dollar or the 10-year or is it going to be the dollar? And candidly, you know, the dollar moved today. And so that's going to take us right into this silver trade. And I think that this is really very important where it stopped dead. Now, what's so interesting about silver here is that we hit that 55 like a ton of bricks and we're going sideways on that. If we dive this into the 4 hour right here, we could start seeing the turnaround in here. And I think that this is super important for us to get that we are seeing that turnaround and we're trying to figure out how this is going to play out. I don't think we have an answer to it yet. Um, as somebody that's short right now on silver, it's not looking too great. You know, it does seem to be holding in here. We are oversold and we're not really rolling over yet. We're actually getting stronger and if we cross that 50 line, I'm going to have an issue. I actually bought calls against the silver short just in case so I didn't come into an absolute dumpster fire floating down the river tomorrow. But this is definitely on my radar and it's certainly something that we have to pay attention to. So for me, it's definitely there and it's certainly something that I want to watch. I really can't stress that enough.
So what do I think's next? Yeah, for me looking at something like this, what I think is next is to see how that plays out and can we get back up into some of these areas. The first area would probably be something like 93 and a half, 94, it looks like. You know, I don't know. I don't know. I I would think that there would be more pain here, but if I if I can hold here in base, you know, it might not be that painful. But when you start looking at the levels, all I did was just drop the volume profile from here down. And you can see the low end and you can see the point of control that you're going to want to watch tomorrow and the high end. And the other thing that you really might want to do with this is take that peak right here. And then just from there, just drop the levels and just look at where your fibs are. And that fibs tying right in with that 236. And if we get through that, then you're looking at 91 my level of 93 and a half and then that that 50% which is not a fib. But if you start flipping 9683, that's where it gets interesting.
Also, if we take a look at this from the gold perspective, I think gold would actually do much better. Gold makes more sense to me because central banks are not going, "Oh, good. We need to we need a spot to put more silver." I mean, physically, owning more silver than owning more gold is just a pain. So, I don't think that we're dealing with it on that side. But what we see here is we see that pullback, we see that rotation, and maybe we're going to break out here this evening. And I wanted to do this video a little bit later just to see what was happening in the market. But I thought this was very different because this is a very different outlook than what you saw at silver. Silver's point of control is all the way down here. It's already flipped. Look at where the point of control is on gold. Look where everybody owns gold at versus here. So, you're out of your range and you're trying to pop back in it. I personally think that this could have more force doing that. So, tomorrow I'll be looking at some of those names possibly like Newmont Mining um and seeing if these suckers are going to start turning. But you you got really smoked here, right? So, we have to really watch this and see how it goes. You know, can you at least get over the 22? Uh maybe you can, maybe you can't. But we want to watch those. And I'm going to watch also how these are acting, the CD, the HL because it's one big trade right now. Maybe we get to that 55 and we hold or then we have to watch the FCXS of the world and see if they're going to hold because once they sold silver and gold, they just got out of everything. They just trashed everything, every everything that was out there. And I think that's super important for us to get.
So, I would just say tomorrow we want to make sure that we get some kind of followthrough in the in in the medals because if I get followthrough in the medals, then I don't have to really worry. I'll put the whole thing up there. If I get follow-through in the medals, then I don't have to really worry about margin calls as much as we did on Friday. That's the first thing. Uh, Bitcoin to me hit the 75, if it starts to hold here, that's about as best as you could hope for. That's about the best that we could hope for. And then we'd have to see about that 48 level and go from there. So that's really how I see it. And I think that that is something that could hold. But if it breaks, you're in a lot a world of hurt. You're in a world of hurt here if that breaks. And technically speaking, when you start breaking this down, the way that 55 is pointing down, and look at these names. These names are just absolute garbage. MSTR. Um, and you just see you're breaking, you can't even get over the 55. As soon as it gets near it, you're breaking the port wall. And it looks like we're trying to head to that 100 coin after that cyber bill. you know, you're cracking here. I'm short the these three I'm about ready to go through with you and I and I think you're going to get to that 138 now. Maybe earnings will save them. You you don't know. You know, maybe earnings will save them.
But you're see what I'm saying? Like you are rotating through sectors. So when you're looking at the cues, you're like, "Oh, well this makes sense because only certain sectors are really breaking out like XBI and then you think you're you should be in these and then they start to roll." So it's definitely an active managers market. I can't I can't stress that enough. Like the BMNR, they came out tonight. I think it's going to be like the sixth greatest it's the sixth greatest loss in history what they've lost net right now in um in an investment like it's crazy how much money they lost in Ethereum already now they're supposed to hold it you're going to hold it forever that's it's kind of that kind of thing so that you know you kind of have to give them a pass on the way that they're trying to monitor it or just sensationalize it but I you know I'm not a fan I mean I am short them and I do think they're going down but the question is if Ethereum could get some kind of hold here and find some kind of bottom which it's not doing maybe you know maybe you don't get the 1500 but that's at least where I think you're getting to that 1500 level so that's going to give us that rotation that we're saying and then what they're rotating they're rotating in things that are safer oh let's rotate in the XLV and we'll buy the healthcare names and then all of a sudden they find out that that the Medicare bill comes out and they're like oh we're going to pay you the same rate we were paying before so people are just rotating and that's why these names look like this absolute disastrous when 2027 Medicare came out and oh this is what you're going to get same rate people panicked and rightfully so. And that's why these names got smoked.
So for me, I think there's only really a couple strong safe havens and they're the earnings plays. I mean, that's why they're moving the way they are, the SanDisks of the world, because there's only so many plays out there. And you know, people always say the same thing. Oh, how much higher can it go? That's the last question you should be asking. The question is when do they start adjusting for the real earnings that are coming out next quarter? Because if you really extrapolate that out, there's there's a lot more in the tank. That's it.