Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, we are going to talk about Bitcoin with a bit of volatility. Today, we are going to prepare our week a little, look at the levels to watch, and also some altcoins that have been requested for analysis. I've noted Rare, QNT, and Aero. We will talk about the US market which is very close to making a new ATH. It could happen at any moment. So this could be interesting for cryptos, even though we've had a good decoupling in recent weeks. Then we will do a fairly global review as usual. Before I start, I remind you for those who haven't done it yet, you have until tomorrow evening to take advantage of the contest. There are until Tuesday evening midnight to register. There aren't a huge number of people, so you still have chances to win. I remind you, there are two winners. Each will win 100 dollars, 200 dollars in total to be won. I will send you the transfer right away, it will be done Wednesday morning. So, if you want to participate, you just have to click on the first link in the description.
So, Bitcoin, where are we? Well, we had our buying reaction which is really confirmed from the moment we try to settle above the middle of the range, which is approximately around, let's zoom in, in 4h. Globally, we have re-entered it. So, that's pretty good. A bit of volatility on the day after a boring Saturday and Sunday, that's classic, we're starting to get used to weekends with very little volatility. Then here, a rather bullish Monday. We haven't come back to go above this level, which is globally our middle of the range. We see that it's where there have been quite a few levels that acted as resistance, support, then acted as resistance. We see that we had a good little short squeeze here, a bit more short-term, where we started to break free from these levels at the beginning with a selling reaction, but which was then followed by good buying pressure. And for the moment, well, we have a key level, we absolutely must not go back below this level. It's the level, it's very simple on Bitcoin. It's our middle of the range. If we start to flip it into support, well, the probability of reaching the upper extremity is quite high. Globally, $92,500 to $93,000 will be the next level. If, on the other hand, it doesn't hold and we re-enter here, well, we will have chances to reach the lower extremity again. In any case, we are arriving here in a mature range. If I put a volatility indicator here, and I set it to daily, we see a decrease in volatility here. We are not in extreme cases of super low volatility like we have experienced at times when we have a purple flash. And what does the purple flash mean? Well, it simply means that a big move is coming. If I look at the weekly out of curiosity, we don't have very low volatility either. In 3 days, it's decreasing, in daily, it's also decreasing. And in 12h, 6h, yes, we see that volatility is decreasing. Then with the holidays in general, the same, less volatility. We have a week that is not loaded with economic announcements. That's completely normal. So perhaps here we will have an even greater weakening of volatility, and then a big move. In any case, we are not in scenarios where we really had phases where the market did nothing, and we've already had moments. See here, it was in August, September, nothing was happening. You see that we have a purple flash on the HVP, and that simply means beware, a big move is coming, and when volatility picked up again, we saw a rise. What we need to look at, we said it together, we do the work, it's at the beginning of each week, to look at the new pivot points, especially the weekly pivot points. Here, we have three. By the way, I made a tutorial. Feel free to watch it if you don't know too much about what a pivot point is and how to use it. I made a tutorial yesterday. These are not the videos that get the most views. You know, like interviews, tutorials, they are not the best videos. Why? Because people generally want to know, yes, what am I doing? How do I trade? Are there scenarios I'm considering, analyses? They want us to do their work for them. It's a shame. Yet, these are videos that can teach you a lot, that can unlock certain biases, certain blockages in your trading, even interviews. Feel free to watch them. Even in this playlist, there are a lot of courses I've done, whether for trading, investing, or other things, that can strongly pull you upwards. So there you go. In any case, the pivot points, we have three. $87,820, we have $85,200 here, and then $91,200. As every week, these are interesting levels that can act as support or resistance. If we look at past pivot points, this level acted well as support and this one acted well as resistance. Historically, these are always interesting levels. We see it here for the purple pink pivot acting as resistance. This one was also interesting. After that, others, we pierce them directly. These are always levels where there's a probability of rejection or acceptance, and this level acting as support. Now, it's not systematic. So for now, we still have moving averages oriented upwards. We see that we had this compression, the 15-minute crossing the 1-hour upwards. And we find ourselves in a scenario similar to what we had, it was around this level. We've found ourselves there several times. We have a compression between the 4-hour tunnel. Okay. So medium-term moving averages with short-term moving averages oriented upwards. 3-minute tunnel, 15-minute tunnel, and each time the 4-hour won. We see it well, the 4-hour acting as resistance. Here again, we rejected, and here we are once again. So now we'll see if we have a rejection or not. For now, we still have this compression that is ongoing. As long as we don't break the 15-minute, as long as we don't break the 1-hour, the highest probability is a continuation of our trend. Okay? And especially the 4-hour is quite large. So we could very well push again to reach a bit higher. Of course, what we need to watch is on timeframes like, let's make the chart a bit more digestible, remove the daily pivot points. So, what to look at on the hour is whether we have selling rejections, how it's going. You see at this level, we rejected once on the weekly pivot point, again on the monthly pivot point. Then we have an MTP here, low, high. We break at this level. We see that we go below this level, we can't get back above it, it acts as resistance. Then we lose the 15-minute. Then we have a first signal here that we are rejecting, and a real confirmed signal with this candle where we break the 15-minute. Here, globally, it's more or less the same. We reject the monthly pivot point, the 4-hour tunnel. Okay, first selling reaction, then a second with this very high wick. Then we lose this level. So we have confirmation. Now we need to watch. Are we seeing more W structures forming, trend continuation structures? See, as we see at this level, here, we have a W structure, the low, the high, the low higher than the previous one. Here, we break. Very good. That's the validation of a trend continuation structure. Now, for the moment, we are retracing. Okay, we have a small 30-minute top that has formed, very slight. Okay, it's mainly the 1-hour that I'm looking at at this level. And we'll need to watch at the contact of the 15-minute in this zone of $88,900. We also saw a confluence with this zone here, approximately here. This zone is around $89,000. After all, it's a trade, we operate by zones. I remind you, it's very important to operate by zones. It's an intervention zone that will act as support or resistance depending on whether we are above or below. And if we reject, we'll need to watch if we're going to look for this level. Confluence of weekly pivot point and 4-hour tunnel. I like to see confluences between pivot points and tunnels. To simply see if there's a selling reaction or not. Now for this week, as I said, beware of volatility. Feel free to step away from the screens. If you don't take any trades for a week, there's nothing alarming. Some will say, "Oh no, it's serious, I have to trade constantly." Beware of overtrading, it's not because you trade more that you make more gains. No, you can, on the contrary, trade more and make more losses. Okay? Because sometimes the best thing is to look for quality rather than quantity. It will depend on your model, your strategy. For some, it will be the opposite, they will look to do quantity. But very often, if you look to select the best trades, that's where you will perform much better. Sometimes the goal is not to make more gains, but to reduce unnecessary losses. And that can change in your strategy. If you have a strategy that is somewhat profitable, but not enough, don't focus specifically on finding a solution to make much more gains. No, focus on the negative. Cut the negative, meaning unnecessary losses, and you will simply make more gains. But beware of overtrading, it's something that everyone goes through at some point, and you will understand that it's often where you can make quite a few mistakes and burn through capital.
Regarding Ether, well, classic, we react at the lower extremity. Well, Ether globally is around its middle of the range, approximately. If I put a volume profile, we are globally at the level of the POC. We see that it's a good range that is defined with this volume profile. A lower extremity that simply shows us where our value low is. Okay. An upper extremity with the value high. So we can say that below $2,860 it's interesting to buy Ether as long as we don't leave this zone, as long as we don't settle below $2,007. Okay? Otherwise, we will have confirmation of a break of this range downwards. And if we start to go above $3,002, it could be interesting. Of course, interesting if there's a reaction. Okay? We're not looking to take longs randomly. Here, the goal, if you're looking for longs in this zone, is if you have a buying reaction. Look for shorts in this zone if you have a selling reaction. You see, a engulfing, a change in momentum, something that shows us that okay, buyers or sellers are showing themselves. And when we are, like now, a bit towards the middle of the range, it's not the most interesting zone. Either you use this middle of the range as a relevant level. The problem is that it will be a different trading model because when you trade a range, the goal is to have an invalidation that invalidates your scenario. When you trade a scenario, for example, you say, "Okay, I'm trading an uptrend." At what point do you invalidate this scenario when we go from an uptrend to a downtrend? Because if you're trading an uptrend and it turns into a downtrend, scenario invalidated, you take your loss, you leave. So, for example, it will be okay, I'm looking for a long here, but invalidation below the low because if we make an MTP, a change in momentum, I'm leaving. When you trade a range, it's the same, at what point do you exit? Well, if you exit a range on one side or the other. The problem when you trade the middle of the range is that if you operate this way, the stop is too far, too wide. You don't have an interesting risk-reward. So you don't trade the range in this case, you trade the middle of the range, and the goal is to say, "Okay, as long as we hold this middle of the range here," well, it depends if you take longs or shorts, it depends on how to say it, the market, if we break, if we pull back, it depends on many criteria, but you can say, "Okay, well, here we seem to have acceptance above the middle of the range, so I'll put a stop below the low at this level, and if we re-enter, it means it was a false breakout, and in that case, I prefer to exit." That can work, it's not the best setups in general, in my opinion, but it can clearly work. And on Ether, we also have new pivot points. We have one here, approximately around $2,980, a low around $2,790, and a high here at $3,200. In the end, it's pretty much the same as last week, except that last week it was our main pivot point. Here, it's simply our resistance one. So that's it for Ethereum.
Now, regarding the US market, we are very close to making a new ATH. We are only a few percent away. We see that the fact of having gone back above $6,008 is rather bullish. And I told you that if we go back above, very good. Well, my invalidation is globally there. If the US market breaks this level, it's really bearish, and cryptos will suffer. In the end, we are making a new high, we are not far from making a new ATH. Now, we always have to look at how the ATH is actually made. Do we have a big, concrete break with real confirmation? For example, see, I'm taking this high here, which is the ATH, I'm setting it to weekly, we see it well. Look at how the break happened. Look at the weekly candle, how beautiful it is. Big break. If I switch to daily, it's the same, we break, we break, we break, we accept, and there's no retracement, we settle below. No, it's a concrete break. What I want to show you is where I exited last February on cryptos because I really didn't like the S&P 500 chart. It's when I saw this, when I saw that we were making an ATH here. But look at the timidity of the ATH. And when the next day we re-enter and reject, here, I said, "Okay, February 20th, I'm getting out, I'm leaving because what we're doing is really ugly." There are videos on YouTube, you can go and watch them. I have nothing to hide, I delete nothing. And then cryptos suffered, and the S&P 500 suffered quite a bit too, because these are timid breaks that we don't like. I don't like this kind of break. I like a concrete break. So here, it will be similar to see, okay, we're making a new ATH, very good, how is it happening? Is it a real impulsive candle that breaks? Nothing prevents us from re-entering later, but you have a higher probability of continuing our trend if we have a real break than a small wick, a weak thing that shows us that, okay, it's not great. Or will we reject? We'll have to watch here. But here, we are at an important, crucial point on the S&P 500. Now, what I don't like is the total decoupling we have between the S&P 500 and cryptos. Yet, we had good correlation for a long time. We have to admit it. We see it well here. When we look at this chart, market top at the same time, market bottom at the same time, bullish rally at the same time. See top here, rejection where I told you, that it's a not-so-great ATH on the S&P 500. Rejection, bottom at the same time. Here, see bottom at the same time. Then uptrend, market top here. Very good. But here, at this level, there's a total decoupling between S&P 500 and crypto. And we see that it's ugly, and even when we have a recovery, the recovery here on cryptos is really timid. And yes, at the moment, we have a strong decoupling. It's quite rare, but it shows us that cryptos are not doing so well for now.
Regarding the altcoins I was asked to analyze. I'm pulling up the list. Very good. So, Rare, I'm really criticizing altcoins a lot right now, you've seen? But at the same time, when I look at this kind of altcoin, honestly, if you follow someone on the internet who tells you that, "Oh no, but Rare, you see this movement, well, there's nothing alarming, it's calm." We broke a very important level here, a support level since 2023, we break it, we settle below it, we spend 2 months below it. Okay. Two monthly closes below, but it will go back up, it will be fine, guys. Someone who either knows nothing, or I don't know, is lying to you for some reason. But you have to be realistic when you look at this kind of chart. Does it make you want to invest? Does it make you want to? When we were here, no problem. When we are at a support level like this, no problem. I always prefer to wait for a reaction, a W pattern, which we didn't have here or here. But when we are here, no problem. But when we start to go below, then it's ugly. Then it's ugly. All of this is really ugly. And I have the impression that the candle of October 10th liquidated quite a few people and disgusted quite a few people with altcoins. We see it now because there's very little volatility, and we're sliding slowly. It's quite surprising. And on this kind of chart, well, no, it's clearly ugly. And I like to say this. These are charts that will tend towards zero. They won't go to zero overnight, but in the long term, they will resemble what I like to take as an example. And I often use it as an example. EES, or when you break a big level, you see this level from the COVID crash that we broke in 2022, well, nothing happens. We have rebounds, but globally, nothing happens. And these are altcoins that will tend towards zero in this way. Of course, among all the altcoins I analyze, it's inevitable that one will tend towards zero and make a x5. That's how it is. Okay? That's how it is. Now, if we take the majority, the majority will be totally ugly. Now, when could it possibly become interesting again? Either we have a re-entry of this level, and then we say, we go like this, we do this, hop, we break the pressures, high, pullback, there's a long that can be taken, or we wait to have an accumulation structure eventually. But otherwise, there's nothing to do. And then we draw Fibonacci retracements, and we look for points of interest. But I don't want to draw a Fibonacci when no bottom has been drawn. But we are quietly retracing the wick that we made on October 10th. Maybe a bit better than one. Yes, that's a bit better. It's not a party either, but it's already much more interesting than the cryptos we saw just before. QNT is still in a sideways phase. So it's a range. The lower extremity will be a good zone. Ideally, it would be good to push and come back a bit lower at this level to have a more professional opportunity and a more interesting risk-reward if we take a long, because here we are not far from the middle of the range. The middle of the range is approximately around here, globally in this zone. We see that it's a level that has long acted as support or resistance. And QNT hasn't done much since 2022. Now, on ranges, I'm a bit of a liar, on range amplitudes, there's still potential for 300%. There have been some good rebounds. I misread. Hop. No, I'm lying. I'm lying. I hadn't seen such a significant amplitude. And well, after that, it's range trading with a good amplitude. So there's potential to perform, for someone who positions themselves. I'm not taking the lowest point because, of course, if I take the lowest point, highest point, it's 400%. If I take a realistic level, approximately here, a realistic level, approximately here, well, we're still at x3. That's still a good performance over a few weeks. Now, we must not go below this level. Clear invalidation, on QNT, if we settle every, let's say $40 in weekly close, it's ugly. And we will exit a range. And conversely, if we start to settle above $170 or this high, $200, $220, yes, that would be good. And we would validate a large reversal structure. So either we wait for a bullish reaction at the bottom of the range, or we wait for a break-pullback, or we also play the range, that can also be done. And then Aero, on Binance, they have quite a chart, well, the chart is more filled. Bybit is not great. BingX, Coin. And well, we'll stop there. I think that's all there is anyway. Ah, Coinbase, perfect. Aero. Where are we? We're going back to the lower extremity, bottom of the range here. Globally, this whole zone is interesting. And then, yes, we have a range high that technically is there. Now, I can't see all the volumes, I'm on Coinbase, I prefer to have Binance for that, but there you go, I was going to say, globally this level of $1.45 is more interesting. We'll base ourselves on the volume profile, which seems coherent given the price evolution. We are at the value area low. So if there's a deviation and re-entry, it could be a good zone to look for a long with the opposite extremity as a target. And otherwise, it's a range, invalidation below this low. You see, as I said, invalidation is what invalidates your scenario. If we go below the lower extremity here, well, we have confirmation that the market is shifting its value. It accepts the break of the range downwards. It means that buyers are not saying it's interesting. How does it work in a range at the bottom? We have buyers who say, "This interests me here to position myself, I estimate that the price is undervalued," and sellers who say, "Ah, the price is too low, I don't want to sell here, it's not worth it." The markets push, rise, rise until a stage where buyers say, "Ah, it's too much, I can't buy here, it doesn't interest me." And sellers say, "Ah, this is a very good opportunity here. The market is high." Okay, if we break, it will simply mean that sellers judge that the current price deserves to go lower and that buyers are not interested in defending this level because they think the price is more interesting, lower, quite simply. So it's better to leave because it's likely that we will break and have a shift in value lower to have a sideways movement. Either here, maybe here, I don't know. But in any case, that's how you have to reason.
So, that's all I have to say on this. Feel free to give me your feedback on your opinion on the entire US market. Are we going to make an ATH? How will the market behave? Feel free to participate in the contest by clicking on the first link in the description, and I wish you a very good evening.