Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are perhaps very happy to find you again for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, October 4, 2025, in front of a crypto map with a little red b. We have the altcoins that have been correcting since yesterday. It's not a big deal what happens on the weekend in general. Don't forget, if the crypto weekend corrects in the red, it creates bullish gaps to be closed for next week. So it's not a big deal if we see red, and on the contrary, if we see big green on the weekend, well, it creates bearish gaps to look for next week too, when the futures contracts open. So that's why, well, what happens on the weekend is a little bonus. After all, not much happens on the weekend, but some little rascals sometimes take advantage of the low liquidity of the weekend to do things. Well, tomorrow, it will be Sunday, and like every Sunday, I will do the long-term weekly analysis. We'll see where we're going in the coming weeks. In any case, the week has ended. In any case, the week ended, it's with the traditional market which is very important now in the crypto market. A few years ago, there wasn't that. And to tell you how important it is, look at this. These Bitcoin purchases, it was one of the best weeks since the creation of ETFs in January 2024. 3.2 billion dollars in purchases, 3200 million. Monday, 518 million in Bitcoin purchases, Tuesday 429, Wednesday 675 million, Thursday 627 million, and Friday we finished with 985 fucking million dollars in fucking Bitcoin purchases. It's madness. It's madness. We are almost at 1 billion dollars in Bitcoin purchases in one day by the ETFs. Madness. Well, it's very good. So we see that the market is correcting, but that behind it, there were 3 billion dollars in Bitcoin bought last week, we say that as long as this buying pressure is there, well, forget it, the market won't fall, you see. Well, so for now, the market is in the grid.
Now, regarding Ethereum, it was a good week too, 1.3 billion, almost 1293 million exactly, I calculated everything. Thursday, Friday, it was Thursday, 300 million in Ethereum purchases, 233 million in purchases on Friday. So, it's not bad. After all, the king is Bitcoin. That's why here, I always leave the king here, Bitcoin, we love our beloved Bitcoin very much. Well, so where are we today? A little red candle for the altcoins. Is it serious? Well, it could be, but it's the weekend. Why? Because divergences are forming. Now, divergences, there are two schools of thought on divergences. And what is a divergence? It's when the price goes up, but the momentum indicators don't follow. What is momentum? Imagine the power, imagine the mountaineer climbing the mountain, you know, he needs a little energy, you see. Well, it's as if the mountaineer was climbing the mountain and had no energy, and at some point, he's going to faint, he's going to fall, he's going to roll backward. That's kind of the idea. Well, and so there's divergence. Now, divergences, there are two schools of thought. Theoretically, divergences should be made on candle closures, okay? It's on price closures. So, theoretically, when we make divergences, we should draw lines like this. Well, and why do we have divergences here? Because, well, the price, the closing of the candle yesterday, on Friday at closing, was higher than the highest close we saw on September 18th. On the other hand, the momentum indicators are falling. That's why we have bearish divergences on the momentum indicators on the altcoins, on the total of altcoins here. Well, so it's correcting a bit. It's not very rare. It doesn't mean, oh my god, we're all going to crash to the ground, but it can correct. It can look for the little Kijun at 853 billion here. It's normal for altcoins to look. Since September 26th, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, it's been nothing but upward movement. Well, it's good that it retraces a bit to start again even stronger. There you go, it can happen. So, don't be afraid of that at all. So, little divergences are appearing, bearish ones, but for now, it's not a big deal. If it starts to lose the Kijun, the Tenkan, especially the 50-day moving average here, then it won't look good. It means we're doing the little A, little B, and boom, little C to go down to validate this regular. Well, otherwise, it's going to sting for our beloved Bitcoin.
Now, there are no divergences, okay? Because our Bitcoin has exploded compared to, for example, here in mid-September, and the momentum indicators have also risen, so no divergence. It's going up, it's pushing momentum, we're not surprised. It's pushing because there's buying. When ETFs buy you 3 billion dollars, well, it pushes with organic buying. Now, what do I call organic buying? It's real buying. You press the button, you buy. Non-organic growth would be more like growth orchestrated by futures, meaning position closures, either manually or forced, meaning we're going to look for where they close on their own, and then it triggers purchases, short position closures, and that's not very pretty. It means it's not spot buying by people, it's rather futures that are screwing everyone over. A beloved Bitcoin that has almost made a historical record yesterday. Look at this. Here on Bitcoin, I have a record at 124,176, but it can differ a bit depending on the exchanges, because everyone has a slightly different order book, even with arbitrage. Well, so what would be the most mischievous scenario? Why am I laughing? Because the structure tells you that as long as we don't break the high, we can come back to the low. And there, that would be the most atrocious scenario between us, meaning the big A here, little A, little B, little C for this B. And this scenario of going below 107,500 is valid because the structure tells us that as long as we don't break the high of 124,176, we will come back to the low. There you go for this wave. So this scenario, I'll call it number 1. Before number 1, it was A, B, C directly, but it decided to make a more complex B. Okay? So scenario 1, I'll call this one, is that, well, listen, as usual, I'm repeating the same thing for weeks and weeks, as long as we don't break 124,176, the structure tells us, it's not me, boom, we'll go below 107 to make this wave. Little A, all of this is B, the little T. Well, scenario number 2 is that boom, we'll break the new historical record, it can push, push, well, I say 126, 127, wherever it wants. Okay. Now, we can know where it wants. Well, I can give you some small targets if it really continues to push. So where did it stop? It stopped at the 1.618 Fibonacci. Look at this. At 123,900. It's very nice. It's spot on. So, how do I do it? Well, I draw the Fibos. Now, I'm doing it a bit roughly, but you understand? Between this level and this level. So, it can go up to 133. There you go, if it really pushes hard, 12 to the moon, it can go up to 133. So, this can be little A, little B, little C3. All of this is the big B which can potentially go to 133. There, I'm making a scenario 2. Scenario 2 is that, well, we break the historical record. Okay? So we have A here, B can continue up to 133 maximum, between 122 and 133, and then there will be the wave. The wave, how far can it go? Well, imagine a wave pushes up to 133, you can draw your fibos up to about 133, it can come back either in the reload zone between 118 and 113, but it can even come back to the gap at 110,000. Okay. Well, that's the idea. So, that's it for now, scenarios 1 and 2. After that, there's a bonus scenario 3 that says, "Well, this is the B, ultimately, of a super messy structure, something really, but well, sometimes structures are messy. Something like this that makes it push and push, and finally, it's a contracting one that validates. Well, that's still possible. Well, so we'll see. What I'm wary of is that we have two gaps. There's the first gap at $110,990 and a second gap at $91,970, you see. So, the market, these gaps, I'm not too sure. Now, tomorrow, we'll look at the long term, and I'll show you a long-term structure, rather weekly, okay? Which could look for the gaps later, you see. So, these gaps, I'm clearly wary of them. There are so few gaps that have been left by Bitcoin, meaning in the entire history of Bitcoin, there have only been three gaps: 9,000, 11,000, 20,000. Those are the only ones that have been left, it's not a lot out of hundreds of gaps, you see. Well, that's why we should be wary of gaps. We should assume more probability that they will be closed than that they will be left and we'll just go off like that. Knowing that soon the CME will be 24/7, there will be no more gaps soon. Well, so Bitcoin is beautiful because it's breaking its super Bollinger band, which is currently at 122,600. So, it just needs one more candle to break the 122,600, the candle that breaks the historical record. The super Bollinger band will continue to widen. It's a Bitcoin that can aim for 130, and clearly, well, and that's it. Now you'll tell me, "Hey, you who sold some of your Bitcoin above 120,000, are you disgusted?" Well, no, I don't care. I'm too early. Meaning, I put myself in stablecoins, I prepared myself for a potential bear market. When I say a big drop, I mean 100,000 at the lowest. I prepared myself this summer, I sold above 120,000. If it goes to 130, well, I don't care, you can't catch the top. I mean, I prefer to be team too early than team too late, you see. I prefer to say to myself, I'm ready, even if I'm ready 2, 3 months, even 4 months in advance, than to say, oh my god, I'm not ready, and I'm praying, what do I do, what do I do? Well, that's how it is. After all, everyone decides to do as they wish. So, this little Bitcoin is very good to be above its super Bollinger band. If anything ugly happens, well, the first supports are at 116,000, then the 50-day moving average at 113,000, and the gap at 110,000. But for now, there's nothing, there's no specific bearish divergence on Bitcoin. If we look at the liquidities, that's the only thing that tells us, well. It could make a new record between us, you know. There are big leverages there, it could go up to 125,000 or even 128,000. Clearly, it can aim for 128,000. There are 3 billion dollars. Well, because there are always people shorting, who are shorting, who are shorting. There will always be people shorting and longers. However, we still note that there are 15 billion at 109,000. So, if it goes to even just the CME gap at 110,000, it takes 15 billion from the market. And the big leverages go up to, let's say, 117,665, but after that, it goes up to 110,000 dollars.
Now, regarding Ethereum, well, it closed a bit more timidly on Friday. Today, a little Saturday, nothing special. Ethereum has been tired for some time anyway. It had 3 weeks where it was in "yeah" mode, and now it's in "well, it's okay, it's resting, maybe to start again" mode. Knowing that it's in a short zone for this movement, so if Ethereum gets rejected, it could also have this little regular. Okay, be careful about that. So, if we start to have a red rejection next week, well, Ethereum will be looking below 3,800, but that would mean that Bitcoin might be looking for its gap at 110,000, if you want. So, for Ethereum, for now, there are no divergences, there's a little momentum, but well, the RSI is pushing. For Ethereum to go to the moon, it needs to break this super Bollinger band at 4,733, and then the upper band will widen. It's heading for 5,000, a new record. Can it do it? Well, but if we look at the liquidations, there's a little bit up to 4,735. Now, the big leverages go up to about 4,570. It has nibbled up to 4,676. There you go, there are quite a few things. However, to the south, there's nothing left. To the north, if it goes to 4,735, there are 2 billion. To the south, if it goes to 4,000 dollars, there are almost 9 billion, you see. So, well, for that, you always have to be wary. If there weren't all these liquidities to the south, well, we would be in "everything is fine" mode. Everything is in "to the moon" mode, you see. But with this big chunk of liquidity to the south, well, at some point, when everyone really thinks it's to the moon, it will turn around, you see. So, what will the little scenario 2 do? That is, it will push, push, push up to 1300 dollars, and everyone will be like, "it's off to the moon," and then maybe, there you go. So, it's not obliged to turn around now, but it can turn around later. In any case, be careful of the two gaps and all the liquidities to the south, you know, at Solana's level.
So yesterday, a little green candle close, it's still amazing, knowing that Bitcoin pushed hard. Ethereum slightly green, Solana. Okay, a red Friday. Well, uh, this is crazy. It's quite rare that Bitcoin makes a big candle and a big coin like Solana makes red. Well, okay, it's correcting today, it's not a big deal. There's the Kijun as support at 22,000, the 50-day moving average is at 213. If the 213 is lost, it will be a bit uglier. Is there divergence? No, it's not diverging because it hasn't made new highs, neither have the momentum indicators. There you go. Well, it's not diverging, it's just a bit tired. On a similar note, same structure. As long as it doesn't break 253, we could see it again below 186, 173. That's what the structure tells us. And regarding futures, well, it's like everyone else. Can it nibble up to 240? Yes, it can nibble up to 243, 244 if it wants. However, well, the big feast here is to the south. If it goes to 200 dollars for Solana, it eats 1.8 billion. If it goes to 244, it eats about 800 million. There you go. So, it's always the idea. Will it fall directly now? Not necessarily, it has big supports at 22,000 and 213 that could support it.
And to finish, XRP. So it has a little doji candle. Doji candles like this are candles that look like crosses, or some call them candles of uncertainty, of falling back into a trend. So, bam, a little red candle. It's not a big deal. Why is the market red? It spent the week making green. Many long positions have been placed. So, it makes a little red to start again, not a big deal at all. So, XRP has big, a big support here. It's even a trio of big supports at 2.93, then it will have it here at 2.89. Breaking 2.9, then it won't look good. It would mean that here it will make the structure to go below 2.69. So it will take its super Bollinger band and explode. It will explode the 3.14 and then it will take off like an arrow to look for this short zone between 3.29 and 3.46. And anyway, if it starts to lose the Tenkan, it's more in the direction of 2. No divergence for XRP because it hasn't made new highs, momentum indicators the same, no new highs. And if we look at its liquidities, it has a little mountain to climb here, you know. There are 3.050 to look for at 3.18. We see it there, there are big leverages up to 3.12 and then to look for up to 3.18, 3.19. However, a small first cluster up to 2.89, that's it. And the second one after, it's more around 2.69. Well, so for now, a little weekend, a little red Saturday. Well, for now, it's not a big deal, nothing special. Altcoins are taking a bit more of a hit than Bitcoin, surely because in terms of leverage, some people have had more fun putting big leverage on altcoins than Bitcoin. It's normal for the market to push, people want big returns. Here we go for beloved altcoins. Can there be a sudden purge before breaking the new ATH? Well, for the structure, it remains possible, and that's really the most mischievous scenario. To stop just before the ATH and boom, a descent. I'm not saying it will happen, it's scenario number 1. But if we don't break 124, make the descent. However, if we break the ATH, then it can start to go for a descent later. Tomorrow, we'll do the long term. You'll see on the weekly, there are very interesting things too. Give kisses. Thank you for listening, and see you tomorrow. Bye bye.