Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are perhaps very happy to see you again for this breaking news video of Sunday, September 28, 2025, in front of a slightly red crypto market. It's been correcting since the new candle at 2 AM. So for now, be careful because Friday and Saturday were very stagnant, but all this is stagnating in small upward channels as I showed you in the video on the VIP channel this morning. Be a little careful about everything that is happening. So, I will also explain the long-term structure, but on the short-term structures, we have small channels that are not very, very pretty. So, you really have to pay attention to that. That is to say, we could have a last little upward wave, not mandatory, a small one, you see, before resolving all of this downwards. Well, in any case, it's the continuation, the validation, the big structure. We will see that tonight too because as it is Sunday, well every Sunday, I also do the weekly analysis because we will have the candle, the closing, the weekly candle tonight. We will see if the coming weeks look good or not. Speaking of all investors, traders are divided. There is the clan that says it's over, we're all going to die. And the Bullrun clan is still here, we're going to the moon. Well, that's completely normal. Basically, when the market goes up, well most are in "to the moon" bull run mode. When the market goes down, well you have those who go into bear market mode. However, the market is not binary, it's not either bear market or bull run, there can also be small or large intermediate corrections. Remember in 2024, we corrected for 9 months. We went from 75,000 to 48,000. For 9 months, we had a small downward channel. That was also a continuation structure. For 9 months, your darling told you that you shouldn't be afraid. That's a continuation structure. And then when we were at 48, we exploded to 120, you see. Well, so it's not because it corrected for a long time that it's necessarily a bear market. We'll see that, we'll look at that tonight too. After yesterday, I did my analysis. It's true that in the analysis, there are divergences that I don't like too much. Well, we'll see what it led to in the coming weeks. So it has only fallen by almost 13% compared to its record. Some see it as just a small intermediate correction and it will go back into a bull run. Some say it's over, welcome to the bear market. Well, so we have some analysts who compare the 2021 bear market to what we are doing now, like for example the crypto analysis called Reflection, who tells us look in 2021 we made a first peak, a small correction, a second peak not far away, a lower correction than before, we broke the lowest point of the first correction, then a last rise where it fails to make a third peak and boom it falls. And he says we did the same: first peak, small correction, second peak just above, we correct lower than the first correction. We try to make a new peak, we get rejected. So to validate the 2021 scenario, there would need to be big red candles in the next two to three weeks. Bam bam bam, ugly things that scare you. You see, there would need to be something ugly. There would need to be red that stains. How do you say? That arrives. If there is no red that stains, well, it won't be like 2021. Well, it's certain that since this summer, well, it was a bit scary but we were still doing it. Uh, it was that we superimposed, it was that we did live streams and normally tonight, I will do a little live stream. I don't know if I will have too much of a headache as I'm a bit unwell, but it's better now, apart from the headache, you can't, but normally we will do a little live stream tonight. Well, and so, and so we look at that during the live streams, we also superimpose the current 2025 bull run to 2021. It's true that it looked very similar. Well, so if that happens, it's a minimum of 50% correction, that is to say Bitcoin going around 50, 60. That's a bit of the idea. There. Well, some also see an ascending wedge, a kind of ascending compression triangle, comparing it to 2021 and that it is already breaking and that it is heading towards $60,000. Well, so this is the clan of those who think we are all going down, all falling to the ground. Now, some say no. The market is not over. Since we started the bull run from $16,000, our beautiful tom, there have been many corrections, you see. And the corrections went to say hello to the 200-day moving averages, more or less. You see the 200 moving averages there, you have the simple exponential, we have two, and in fact we are touching them a little, you see, more or less high, more or less low, but we are moving on. We touch them, we move on, we touch them, we move on. So now, are we going to touch them? It's possible. They are around 103,000. So can Bitcoin go towards the 200-day moving average, 103,000, 100,000, 99,000? You see, touch it a little with some oscillations and move on. Yes, since we've done that every time, it remains a very possible scenario. And in that case, the bull run is not over. We have the analysis here called Bit Bull. Well, he chose his name well. He is the bull of Bitcoin. Bit Bull is always bullish, only bullishness. You'll see Bitcoin fall to 69,000, to 60,000, he'll be there. Yes! It's good, it's started, all day long, every day. Well, at least he gives energy. And so for him, the market is not over. The market is not over. The bull run is not over. Heading towards $2800 as long as this trendline holds. However, if we start to break this trendline, well, we'll see if it will pass or not. Well, why does he say that? Because the Federal Reserve will start to lower its rates, well, it has started with a rate cut, but the next ones are not sure, especially since inflation fell yesterday, or rather the day before yesterday, Friday, it slightly increased. Well, so some are betting on that. The Fed will lower rates, it will boost the economy a bit, a lot of money will come in, all that. Others tell us well, we are just on a small downward channel and it's a bull flag, a channel that goes down like this, there is a higher probability of breaking upwards and we are going to the moon. Basically, the small downward channel is what we have been following, it's the regular for several weeks. Can it just touch the 200-day moving average at 3000 and move on? Yes, it remains possible. Anyway, this morning in the video on Telegram, I showed you in detail that as long as we hold 100,000, the regular is validated. It's going back for a new all-time high. If we start to break 98,000 exactly, then it won't look good because we will go into a larger correction, a larger corrective structure. So, that's a bit why traders are divided. Can we say they are wrong or we are wrong? Well, no, for now both are valid. Uh, well, I will show you what I think in the video tonight. Knowing that here for example, what you see, the small bands here, it's the average price realized by the Bitcoin holders. According to a given time. We are talking about short-term holders, they bought their Bitcoin less than 6 months ago, if you want. And so the short holders here in green, their capitulation price, or rather their average purchase price is around $89,000. Now, the trend followers, the shortest-term holders, to make them capitulate, we would need to go below 3 months, they are the purple ones. We would need to go below $109,000. We saw this week that if we go below $109,000, well, they capitulate, they sell at a loss, and the more we go below $109,000, the more they will sell at a loss, those who have been there for less than 3 months. After that, they are the short-term holders. Now, if we take those who have Bitcoin between 3 months and 1 year, we call them long-term holders, even if after there are those who have had it for a long time, they have their average price around $89,000 to $85,000. So if the market really started a larger correction and made long-term holders capitulate to purge more, you see, but it could go below, we need to look towards $80,000 or those who have had Bitcoin for a little less than a year can also sell at a loss. There. After, if we talk about $60,000 and $35,000, that's really a bear market. Well, we also have some who are calling to sound the alarm on the same crypto narrative, which is corporate treasuries. We have talked about it several times this year. Uh, well, in fact, the fact that many companies are starting to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, BNB, they are buying everything, you see, saying "Come on, we're buying all this, we're making a treasury out of it, come buy our stock. And you will also be exposed to the cryptos we buy, you see, indirectly." And well, they hope to attract investors, sometimes it doesn't work. Well, and so all this has tickled the ears of the old timers who were always there, or rather who were there during the dot-com bubble, the internet bubble, the dot-com era, as it's called, between the 90s and 2000s, and it caused a small drop in the stock market, a small 80%. Complete carnage. I really hope it won't be like that because I would be the first to shed all the tears of my body. Well, anyway. So after, it's normal, it's normal. It's Re Youssef here, founder of the platform HP Pierno Onean, who says be careful. He is right to say be careful. So it's not because he says be careful that it will happen, but you still need to be aware. You never know, you see, well, it could lead to something not good. So I don't think it will cause an 80% drop. We're not talking about the internet bubble here. Well, and things are a bit more regulated. They know what the internet bubble did, so they are a bit less, a bit less foolish than before. But it's a bit similar, you see. And be careful because the same excessive investment psychology, he tells us about cryptos via treasury companies, could cause a small or large bubble like the internet bubble. And so he tells us that the dot-coms were an innovative phenomenon of the emerging information technology market between the 90s and 2000s. Alongside large companies with serious ideas, long-term strategies, but the race for investment capital also attracted enthusiasts, opportunists, dreamers because bold and futuristic visions are easy to sell to the mass market. And today, it's the same thing. The market sells the idea and is carried by the idea of cryptos, decentralized finance, web 3, and all that. And if such a bubble bursts, it will be like the dot-com, meaning the big ones will survive and will be the monster companies of the future like Microsoft, Apple, and the others were, you see. And and and three-quarters will die. Can the same happen for treasury companies? Unfortunately, yes, it can. Clearly, there are so many companies, small companies that no one cared about, whose shares were falling, that are starting to say "I'm creating a Bitcoin treasury, look, I'm innovative, come to me." And then the problem is that at some point, if Bitcoin starts to fall, fall, fall, they will become negative on their purchases. They will also be able to sell in fear, thinking "Oh dear, we made a mistake, why did we buy Bitcoin? we're already at -10, -20, -30, let's sell." So simply, as many have taken on debt to buy Bitcoin, if Bitcoin falls and they become negative on their purchases, they will have to sell their Bitcoin to at least repay their debt, you see. So, you can well imagine that yes, this race for corporate crypto treasuries can have its not-so-pretty side. And that's why you just need to monitor it. That's the idea. Well, so if it's nothing, it will do nothing. If it's something, it will cause a small bubble, a medium one, but it will cause a big one. So in doubt, we will just monitor it, I will keep you informed. And to finish on a positive note, it's options. So, what are options? They are derivative products. In fact, when we talk about derivative products, it means that you have Bitcoin like you, you buy it, you hold it, and all that. All that is derivative products is everything you can create behind Bitcoin. You see, it's like a movie. You have a movie, I don't know, a movie, the movie Moana, which my children watch, they like it. But you have the movie Moana and all the derivative products are everything you can do behind it, you see. So, merchandise, little plush toys, all that. Well, Dad, I want a little plush toy. And Dad, can I have a little sticker? And so, and so it's the same here, you have Bitcoin, derivative products are everything they can create around Bitcoin to have fun, to make money. Well, and what are options contracts? Basically, they allow you to bet on the upside or downside at a given time. That's it, it's for a given date. That is to say, for an option contract, for example, if you bet on the upside and you say "I have to pay a premium to do this." You say, "Okay, Bitcoin, I think it will be above $120,000 or $130,000, I'm just saying something for December 2025." If Bitcoin is at 150, you will be able to buy it at 120,000, you see, because you paid a premium for the fact that if Bitcoin is above 120,000 on that date, I will buy it at 120,000. And the opposite is also true, and it works like this. That is to say, if you are afraid that Bitcoin will crash to $60,000, you can, for a given date, pay a premium, pay something to, be careful, the premium can be high, it depends on what you are going to do, but say "Okay, I'm betting, I'm buying an option contract at $90,000 for Bitcoin." If Bitcoin on that date is below $90,000, I have the right to sell it at $90,000. There. It's basically a contract you make like that, a contract that has a term, a given date. On the date, you can or cannot exercise your contract. And why is this type of option contract very interesting? It allows institutions to smooth out volatility. Basically, when you have an institution that is afraid that Bitcoin will fluctuate by 10%, 20%, 30% upwards, especially downwards, especially downwards, you are afraid. So you buy Bitcoin and behind it you take, you hedge yourself on the sale with option contracts. So you buy Bitcoin and you hedge yourself on the sale, that is to say you buy option contracts for given dates, expiring every month. Pam, pam, pam, pam. And if Bitcoin collapses, well, you have the right to sell Bitcoin at the price you paid with your premium, you see. So you will be able to sell it higher to cover yourself a bit. That's the idea. So it allows to smooth out volatility a bit. It's not like "I buy and if Bitcoin drops 30.40%, well, I cry." It's "well, if it drops 30.40%, I bought, I hedged myself with option contracts to sell it at a good price anyway." You see, that's the idea. There. And so here, this is something that can, it's the market analysis of James Straton who tells us that with these option contracts, it should attract institutional investment. He talks about a Bitcoin that could reach $10 trillion. Now, $100 billion is almost half of the market capitalization of gold. So it's huge. He tells us that the open interest on CME option contracts. Now, CME is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, that's where a lot of it is. It has reached a new record, partly thanks to systematic volatility selling strategies like covered call options that simply hedge against the downside. So that's what's happening the most, basically. That's what's also happening with Ethereum in recent weeks. A lot of ETH purchases towards ETFs. They were hedging against the downside on option contracts and at expiration, well, they make money on the difference between the two, on the spread, and this testifies to a more mature market structure with increased liquidity of derivative products around Bitcoin. So he tells us that thanks to derivative products, it will allow to, basically, smooth out volatility for large institutions, and therefore they will have more confidence to buy Bitcoin thanks to these option contracts. We were talking about it anyway before they came out, we were there and we said it was a good thing. It will allow institutions to hedge against potential drops. Well, we have Samus Roca, CEO at Xapo, who tells us that the cycle, well, we're talking about the 4-year cycle because everyone is a bit afraid of that, and here I'm jumping to another thing, is not dead and that markets could be influenced by news, crowd sentiment, despite institutional investors. Well, that remains possible. We also have Matthew Cratur, a Bitcoin defender and analyst, who tells us that human psychology is the underlying current that moves markets, and it doesn't change. He tells us, Matthew, it's very interesting that the last bear market after 2021, so 2022, was mainly driven by institutional investors who did stupid things like FTX, Celsius, Genesis, Three Arrows Capital, and the like. So, can we say that because there are institutions, "It's good, there won't be a bear market or the bear market will be weaker?" Well, we're not sure, you see, because yes, institutions can make mistakes, and here the mistakes could come from where? Well, from treasury companies, for example. You see, if Bitcoin starts to fall significantly, some will close on their own because they will go bankrupt. Some treasuries that have accumulated Bitcoin or other altcoins, Ethereum, BNB, whatever you want, will start selling to at least repay their debts and avoid bankruptcy, and so yes, in fact, the bear market can also be caused by institutions making mistakes, and some are making mistakes too. Well, we'll follow all that. Yes, excuse me, it's not the most bullish news in the world. Well, after, unfortunately, sometimes there are great news, sometimes not-so-great news. You have to take both. The main thing is to be informed. There. Don't get scared, don't imagine things, be informed. We will look at all that anyway in the analysis this afternoon. I send you kisses. Have a good day. See you later. Bye [Music]