Transcription
It's everybody's favorite fantasy football word, regression. Today, we're going to be talking about negative and positive regression candidates in either direction based on their 2025 usage at wide receiver, at running back, at tight end. Um, the quick honorable mentions that we're not going to talk about because they're either homer picks or too obvious to talk about. Amechuka's catch rate was terrible last year. I don't want to talk about him because I talk about him all the time. CD Lamb's touchdown rate. Danny's talked about it when he answers his door for dominoes. The obvious picks of Justin Jefferson being a regression candidate across the board and Matthew Stafford, Devonte Adams touchdown rates. A lot of people have talked about that stuff as well.
So, um Danny, let's get into the first regression candidate. I'll let you go first because you have one guy that's going extremely high in fantasy drafts right now in Jameson Williams. Why is he a regression candidate in the negative sense? A guy and again, math terms aside, regression means regression to the mean. So negative regression means they overperformed regressing back down. Positive regression they underperformed or regressing back up.
Yeah, you may or may not have spoiled who the second name on the list is. We're actually going to be talking about Jackson Smith and Jigba right now. But all jokes aside, he was the league winner at wide receiver in 2025 and the tea leaves kind of pointed to it in terms of how he finished in 2024. Part of the thesis is of course we love the young breakout. He gets Clint Kubiak and everything worked out perfectly if you were uh pro Jackson Smith and Jake. Proved that he was one of the very best receivers in the NFL, but he just arguably posted one of the most efficient seasons of all time. He was a guy who out overperformed his expected points per game by 3.9. For reference, he finished as a top two wide receiver in fantasy despite being the wide receiver eight in terms of overall usage. And now he loses that elite scheme. As much as I still think this is going to be a good offense, going from a guy in Clint Kubiak, who was the hottest head coach on the market, who goes to the Raiders, who by the way, we'll talk about later on in this video. I'm sure that Flurry is going to try to replicate what they did in Seattle. But at the end of the day, you don't just take out Kyle Shanahan from the 49ers and say, "Okay, they're going to perform exactly like Shanahan was with a new offensive mind." When you are that good of an offensive coach, expecting the next person in line just to completely replicate what you did is very hard-pressed because when we look at Jackson Smith and Jigba, when we look at the Seattle Seahawks last year, Seahawks, they were number one in points per game. They were at 28.4 for reference on sports books right now. They are expected to regress 3.5 offensive points per game. And with Jackson Smith and Jigba over a 35% target share, 3.71 yards per run, over a 50% air yard share for the team last year. And when you read the tea leaves of this offseason, they drafted first round running back. They are, you know, hyping up Rashid Shaheed at nauseam this offseason, it all goes to say that as much as I like JSN and as much as I still think he's a star player, I can't put him in the range with Puka Nacua. I can't put him in the range with Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase arguably the best pure offensive passing projection in the league. And we've seen with Puka Nacua, sure he also posted an elite yard per route run, but he's not losing his coordinator. He's not losing Sean McVay. But JSN, he is losing Clint Kubiak. So when I look at JSN, he's more so in the range with Amon-Ra St. Brown and CD Lamb rather than the uh the Puka Nacua and Jamar Chase for me.
Yeah, you and I have him the lowest on the site at seven and eight respectively. Um, I think the best example of what we could maybe expect out of the Clint Kubiak departure is John Morton taking over for Ben Johnson in Detroit or Josh McDaniels taking over for Liam Cohen in Tampa Bay. Those two offenses respectively had excellent play callers, Liam Cohen and uh, and Ben Johnson, two of the best five, six play callers in football on the offensive side. And the guy behind the guy just couldn't replicate it. And I do think that as good as Flurry could be, um, Kubiak is going to be very hard to replicate. And again, you pointed out some just extremely outlandish numbers like a 36% target share, a 3.71 yards per run, 50% or 49% of the team's air yards. If Rasheed Shaheed, Tory Horton, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, Jadarian Price, whoever else takes any kind of semblance, let's say Shaheed eats 2% into that and Horton eats 1% into that and Kupp eats 1% into that, a 30% target share, which is what I have projected for, is still second most among all receivers in the NFL in my projections. However, the Seattle Seahawks are one of the lowest projected uh pass rate teams in football and pretty slow pace of play as well. So, it's not like you're getting a huge huge pass heavy pass environment where JSN can still produce that numbers. Like he he does need that like outlandish um chunk of the Seahawks pie to be able to do what he did last year. And even last year, like 21 points per game is excellent. He was obviously a huge league winner, but he was also going in the third round instead of going in the top five like he's going right now.
Yeah. And again, that's not to say he's not a first round fantasy asset. It's just kind of countering the narrative this offseason that he's a crystal clear top five pick. He's more so a guy I have at ranked ranked at eighth overall. I would need to be a second tier overall fantasy player this year. So if we just say the top tier in my opinion in my rankings, Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua and Jamar Chase, I would instead refer to JSN being in that next tier. McCaffrey, Lamb and of course Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Yeah. And I think that frankly um St. Brown who I have ranked ahead of him is probably going to run more pure than JSN this year because the Lions schedule and McCaffrey who has just a much higher ceiling who outscored JSN last year is worth the risk in my opinion. So those are the two guys that I have ranked ahead of him that the market does not.
And fun fact um we you mentioned we're not going to be talking about CD Lamb on this video. It's funny because when you look at the overall points per game last year 21.2 phenomenal CD Lamb a little bit disappointing when you look at it in totality. CD Lamb had more expected points per game.
Yeah, he did. Danny found a way to bring in CD Lamb to the video. Anyways, um, let's talk about Jameson Williams who is my negative regression candidate and then I want to look at a chart after this one showing the positive and negative regression candidates in totality. So Jameson Williams kind of like George Pickens and you know some other players we've talked about so much went right for him like Chris we've talked about this as well. Sam LaPorta misses the final eight games of the season leading Jameson Williams to post a top 14 wide receiver back half of the season. Uh 15.2 2 points per game. Not to mention in the money weeks, weeks 13 through 15 or start of the money weeks, Amon-Ra was banged up. He got injured against the Packers, I believe it was on Thursday Night Football in week 13. And for a couple of games there from weeks 13 through weeks 15, Jameson Williams was a top three receiver in fantasy because Amon-Ra was playing injured, playing on a pitch count, playing hobbled, etc. So, not only did Jameson Williams realize his upside potential of Sam LaPorta being out, but Amon-Ra was also banged up during that uh stretch as well. And I I'm sure you remember because you were doing the wide receiver tier list throughout the the season. He was like a top 12 receiver in people's rankings going into each expected week. So, yes, he produced. He had a monster year, but he was sixth in fantasy points per game over expected last year, seventh in fantasy touchdowns per game over expected. And yes, playing for the Lions and being a dominant deep threat is probably going to keep you in the higher range of overperforming your usage and that kind of thing. But generally speaking, with St. Brown healthy, with LaPorta healthy with Gibbs, the new bell cow who's a great receiver and who knows, maybe Isaiah Likely or somebody else takes some more snaps away from him. I think some of your league mates might remember Jameson Williams with rose-colored glasses, what he was at the end of the season versus the pretty much unstartable asset he was for the first eight to 10 games.
Well, let me ask you this question because I have a pretty clear answer for me. If LaPorta never gets hurt last year, who do you think goes higher in ADP, Jameson Williams or Christian Watson?
Uh, probably Christian Watson, who's also kind of a regression candidate to his own extent. But, um, yeah, I I just think that >> again, always a live outcome for Jameson Williams that he has contingent upside. However, when he realizes said contingent upside, he is probably going to regress if we assume health for Sam LaPorta, St. Brown, and Gibbs.
Well, exactly. Cuz like I for example, even if we look up the board at a guy like George Pickens, George Pickens we can say is probably overvalued compared to what he did last year going into this year, but we know if Lamb were to go down, he would be a top three to five wide receiver any given week. Jameson Williams would kind of be that implied upside play as well.
Yeah. And T. Higgins is the version of that that hasn't come to fruition yet where Chase has really never missed time on the same time that uh Burrow has been healthy and Higgins has been healthy. They've all kind of missed time together. So, um, yeah, I think Jameson Williams, again, just a bit of a negative regression candidate. I still love the Lions offense. I still think JMO can be like a 13, 14 point per game receiver and has the contingent upside of course that if any of those guys miss time, he's probably more of a 15, 16, potentially 17 or 18 point per game receiver if St. Brown were to miss time.
Yeah, he's a little lower in my rankings. Like, if we go on general, I think I'm probably the lowest, if not second lowest on the side. Yeah, I am the lowest with Zack. What? You're third lowest as well?
I'm right there. Yeah, like again I I I like the contingent upside, but I'm only going to value him as what he is essentially, which is like a 13 to 14 point per game boomer wide receiver 23 type.
And I will say kudos to Zack cuz he was the guy on Jameson Williams going into last year.
He was. Yeah, I remember how mad he was that I sniped him uh in the Flock League and then I eventually traded him Jameson Williams and Zack absorbed all those shitty weeks for me after drafting him uh myself. So that that definitely helped me out. But anyways, let's move into um the next we're talk actually, let's talk about the this chart really quick cuz I wanted to just showcase this. Um if you're not a math person, this might be difficult to read, but I've done the easy part of highlighting the negative regression candidates. Pickens, Collins, Higgins, Flowers, Wilson, etc. And then circling the positive regression candidates, Argo, the guys that underperformed their usage. So even though we're not going to get to all of these guys today, but we have mentioned like Pickens as an overperformer, Lamb as an underperformer. The one guy that I did want to point out here is Devonte Adams being an underperformer despite scoring 14 touchdowns in 14 games. And the reason for that is that he had like a 52% catch rate. So that's the uh that's the other side of the coin for him. A.J. Brown was a really small sample, but definitely an underperformer. Juanell switches teams, so it's not really the same situation. Igbuka we're not going to get to, but he was definitely an underperforming guy. Jefferson Odun as well. Um, do you want to talk about your uh next guy or do you have any thoughts on this chart here?
Yeah, I mean it is a really interesting chart and you can kind of see uh obviously if you go further right it's the guys that got the clearest most expected points per game in terms of their usage. The guys that are up the chart of course as we see if you're more on the middle of the left side you're overperforming that's kind of where George Pickens pops in and Puka Nacua apparently is just the king of all kings.
Yeah, and he is and we're not going to talk about Michael Wilson today but uh we nearly did um he is also >> yeah, he is a regression candidate as well. Um Brian Thomas Jr. is the guy that you have listed here as a positive regression candidate. So, Brian Thomas Jr. underperformed his usage last year, not overperformed it.
Yeah. So, according to fantasy points data, he averaged 10.1 actual points per game versus 12.1 expected. So, obviously, you're getting a two uh two point per game difference there. And it has already been reported coming out of Jags camp, he's looked a lot healthier. They've been really impressed with how he's approached this offseason. And the question that we just has to we just have to ask the overall fantasy player, is he closer to the 1.58 yards per out run that he had last year or the 2.55 he was at as a rookie? And I do think it's a true question mark. I'm not just being facetious when I ask it because ultimately when I'm looking at it, that's going to determine whether you're in or you're out on Brian Thomas Jr. For me, when I look at it as a guy in his first two years who has posted a 2.55 yards per out uh yards per run year, who has posted nearly a 17 point per game year, who has been a wide receiver, one in fantasy, we were drafting this guy in the top 12 of drafts last year, you're getting about a pick uh 50 pick discount going into this year. And at the end of the day, just from a pure heuristics perspective, a 24-year-old elite athlete, top 20 NFL draft pick who showed flashes to be a top five talent, that doesn't grow on trees. At 60 overall, it's free upside. Again, if you flipped his first and second years, maybe he started slow, started raw as a rookie, and his rookie season that we saw in actual NFL was his second year. Where would he be going in fantasy drafts? Probably where Drake London is.
I didn't hear one fantasy analyst say that Brian Thomas Jr. was a bad pick last year. Not one. I like people I know like Evan Silva, some of the ETR guys were like very high on Brian Thomas Jr. last year. So there there's a case to be made that he just like you said if you flipped his first year and his second year, he would be going at the very latest in like the second round probably like where like AJ Brown and Rice and Collins are going.
Yeah, I honestly think he'd probably go in the top 18 close to like London.
Yeah, definitely possible. Again, we don't know is Brian Thomas Jr. rookie year or second year Brian Thomas Jr., but what I can tell you for free is it's definitely not this the second year guy for sure. Like, it's probably going to be somewhere in between the two if I had to guess. But, um, he could be rookie year Brian Thomas Jr. and again with Parker Washington, Jacobe Myers, Travis Hunter. There's obviously different factors that weren't at play in 2024, but Brian Thomas Jr. for my money is still at least at this moment in time the X receiver on the team especially if they go the Gladstone Liam McVay copycat route of playing a lot more two and three tight end sets. They took two tight ends in the first five rounds of the NFL draft. The X receiver on this team is Brian Thomas Jr. He's going to be the one on the field the most. And let me ask you, Corey, if this makes sense, because usually you see 62 overall ADP, 31 overall wide receiver price tag, and you would say, well, this is just your standard third-year wide receiver break candidate, but this guy's already [ __ ] broken out. And when you go to his career, wide receiver, 12 wide receiver points per game, yet his ADP is at 31. That's not nearly splitting the difference.
No. Oh, and as I do and I'll do in a couple of weeks, the whole like picking through the mid rounds of wide receivers is something that I've really focused on the last couple years in content because I think it's some of the hardest things that you can do as a fantasy player cuz we all kind of know inherently that in rounds three through seven, the wide receiver position is one that you want to be attacking. But picking the right receivers is the difference between getting Puka Nacua last year or getting you know whoever was like DJ Moore or whatever who was a terrible pick in that range uh last year Terry McLaurin or something like that. So a guy who's been who's in his prime who's had a wide receiver one season is usually the best bet in that territory.
And I don't know if it's just me Cory but when you have the tetherment of an elite play caller with a quarterback who played very well down the stretch was the quarterback one in points per game for an offense that averaged 27 points per game. Like is this not just George Pickens in the fifth round last year all over again?
Yeah, I mean it definitely could be. And like knowing that you could start your draft with a couple, you know, stable running backs and maybe one anchor receiver and get BTJ as your wide receiver two or three and and you know, free ball the upside that he gets back to his previous production. And obviously we're high on Travis Hunter, but we're not high on Parker Washington and Jacobe Myers. So that's kind of why we're just going with the young talented players of this offense. And not that Parker Washington isn't young, we just don't think he's as good as Brian Thomas Jr. and as Travis Hunter. So, um, I'll talk about the I guess the old version of Brian Thomas Jr. and Mike Evans. Um, Mike Evans positive regression is a word that has almost never been said in relation to Mike Evans because he's usually the opposite side of the coin where people are going his touchdown rates unsustainable. He's never going to, you know, score 13 touchdowns again or whatever. Wide receiver five in expected fantasy points per game last year. it. Granted, he only played seven games, so there's a bit of a small sample bias there. But he finished with 11.3 fantasy points per game due to a wild thing, like I said, that has never been said about Mike Evans called positive touchdown regression. I do think knowing that he's on the field and healthy hopefully for a better offense, a better quarterback, and also a team that, as I've talked about before, can actually scheme him open matchups, especially in the red zone where he's maybe the most dominant receiver of the last 10 years, uh, or one of the five most at the very least. People say that touchdowns aren't a sticky stat, but when you look at a guy like Devonte Adams or you look at a guy like Mike Evans or a prime Julio or I guess not Julio Jones, but guys who are just touchdown scorers by nature because they get end zone targets and red zone targets, you can pretty easily predict Mike Evans to have eight to 10 touchdowns. Like his he had three touchdowns last year in seven games. His Vegas total I believe is eight and a half right now. So when you're looking at Mike Evans the player and his fit for the 49ers offense, I think it actually is somewhat underrated. I know people are going to like nitpick the ADP. I know you are, for example, not very high on Mike Evans. Um, I'm actually below ADP on him as well, but I think I need to move him up to be honest with you.
Yeah, it's just a tough competitive range at receiver for me. Like when I look at that range, um, so what I have him at 27. He's one spot behind Devonte Adams. He's two spots behind Brian Thomas Jr. We kind of had this conversation in terms of the young guard versus the old guard uh in a video a couple of weeks ago, but I would rather take the implied upside of guys like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Carnell Tate being young players improving. Terry McLaurin, I just think overall when I'm projecting the pure number one in the offense, Terry McLaurin's got that claim. Mike Evans is a lot more target competition. You're going to disagree with Garrett Wilson, but ultimately I still see a 25-year-old receiver that had 18 points per game last year in a much better offensive situation. So, it's like it's not that I'm low on Evans overall. It's just I can't push him over some of the wide receiver names that he goes ahead of.
I just think that like when we're talking about Jaxon Smith-Njigba specifically, like isn't his best case scenario Jaxon Smith-Njigba to turn into like Mike Evans median outcome this year?
Perhaps, but I'm also factoring in a 33-year-old receiver with a history of lower body injuries, including last year, and it bottoms out like we see the comps list. To me, it would bottom out like Julio Jones with the Titans. It would. But if I told you like the whole Christian McCaffrey argument from last year, if I told you this guy played 15, 16 or 17 games, where would you draft him?
And and and you're right, it would probably be somewhere in the third round.
Yeah, like he'd be going right next to I think you can argue that 1100 yard 8 to 10 touchdown projection that T. Higgins has is probably the same for Mike Evans.
I don't think you're outrageous there. It's just it's hard for me to get on board with a 33-year-old vet who changes teams in the offseason who I mean with Devonte Adams he profiled so easily as the clear number two target last year but when I look at the 49ers George Kittle when he's healthy is going to command volume. We're both a little bit higher volume tight end and you know that.
Sure. But I'm I'm talking about holistically. He's going to command volume. Ricky Pearsall we both expect to be better this year coming off of injury. On top of that, McCaffrey's probably could command another 110 120 targets. It's just tough for me because there's a very specific line. It would be 13 14 touchdowns like Devonte Adams did, which he very well could if you play 17 games. There's just more risk factors at play with a guy like Evans.
Yeah. And Pearsall's a good show, too, because in expected points per game, do you know that Ricky Pearsall had more expected points per game last season than Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lad McConkey, T. Higgins, and Jaylen Waddle? Isn't that crazy?
Look at the site. I'm 89 overall on this guy. Like I I I honestly don't understand why the people that were so in on him drafting him in the round five, round six portion of last year are completely out at 97.5 overall.
Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm moving him up because I'm actually the lowest on the site right now. Uh, when you talk about like Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, Alec Pierce types, he at least belongs in those conversations in my opinion because Mike Evans, you know, you have implied contingent value for Ricky Pearsall that Kittle is coming off of an Achilles injury. Mike Evans is older. Like Pearsall had he stayed healthy and run pure last year could have had a breakout season very easily based on the usage.
I 100% agree and we're kind of underplaying like oh like you know as a whole he wasn't very good but like it was a very significant injury. He had to go through it was what? A grade two PCL.
Yeah. And I'm I was the lowest on the site. Like I said, I just moved him up to 92. So I'm right there with Ethan, Sammy, and and stuff because I I think he's essentially exactly just Jordan Addison's projection except on a better team with a worse number one receiver.
With more upside in my opinion because we kind of know what the volume ceiling is for Addison at this point.
Yeah. Yeah. And Addison's been a good big play guy or whatever. But um, the other thing for Pearsall is like the underlying metrics, the reception perception has always kind of been on his side that he's a good separator and that kind of thing. So um, yeah, pretty much the first time in his career that I've been in on him, but uh, I do think that he's uh starting to become a more appealing pick where he's going. Um, we already talked about Thomas Jr. Let's get to the uh, the running backs here because I do want to go through some negative regression candidates for the running back position first because generally speaking, running back is one of those positions that is very volume dependent. If you're getting volume, you're always live to just, you know, chase the volume, hope for the efficiency kind of thing. But there are two guys here that stand out as maybe negative regression candidates at the running back position just because of how pure they ran. And Jonathan Taylor to me is one of those guys because Jonathan Taylor basically for the first 10, 12 games of the season was on the best offense in football. And a big reason why like the reason the Colts were so good is because Jonathan Taylor ran like a bat out of hell for 12 games. Like he was impossible to tackle, breaking contact like crazy, running for, you know, big play after big play. If Jonathan Taylor has we talked about him being the 2024 Saquon Barkley, what if he's 2025 Saquon Barkley this year?
I completely agree and I've mentioned it before. If anybody's going to have this year Saquon Barkley where they go off of that elite rushing season and it kind of plateaus the next year, it would be Jonathan Taylor because ultimately we go every year and we think, oh well the first round's always going to be priced accordingly. But we find out year on year in and year out, oh well no, not actually because the 12 players were taken in the first round, there are right decisions, there are wrong decisions. So people might be talking about us with JT saying, oh you're nitpicking him. Oh, you're being too harsh. He was so good last year. We have to find out what the landmines are. And unfortunately for Jonathan Taylor, to me, he's the most evident one in this range. And you mentioned like being at the mercy of what he was doing, running like a bat out of hell. Dude, I'm not even joking you. I felt like a family in a village watching a Viking take over the village when I had to watch him go up against the Falcons last year. I was helpless. We were on live stream watching that game in the morning while we were live streaming and I had to watch this guy drop nearly 50 points on my head. That might be one of the most embarrassing experiences I've ever had.
Yeah. Yeah. And and the reason like so you guys can see the negative regression candidates on the screen right now for the running back position. Now Gibbs, Bijan, Achane, James Cook, they're all in their primes, right? And they're just very good players. Of course, they're going to overperform their expectations. And with Gibbs and Bijan, they lost a second running back in their backfield. With James Cook, he gets so much red zone usage, he's kind of always going to be ahead of his uh his value. I think you could maybe argue Achane could regress a little bit because of Mike McDaniel leaving. Um, but Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor stick out as like the older running backs that that overperformed expectations. So for me, and also too, like Jonathan Taylor loses, you know, Michael Pittman on the outside, Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles injury. They were a top number one offense in EPA when he was uh when Daniel Jones was healthy, number eight offense overall in scoring. So again, unless Jonathan Taylor just plays like a freak show again like he did last year, he's probably not going to be as good of a fantasy pick. He's a a get-on-base pick to me. He's like, you want the RB seven in points per game, he's your guy. Like you draft him RB4 off the board and he's a small loss or a he holds ADP kind of thing, that's kind of what he's going to represent for me as far as um, you know, your fantasy league. If you're playing in a fantasy league where you love your sleepers and you think you can make up, you know, production there, go nuts. But if you're in a league where you know you're playing a competitive league and you got to hit the the Puka Nacua, the Bijan Robinson, the Jahmir Gibbs out of the first round, the Christian McCaffrey out of the first round, you probably shouldn't take Jonathan Taylor because he's how you come in fifth or sixth place.
Yeah. And the big difference where he currently goes versus where I have him is I do have both the two wide receivers that go after him pushed ahead of him. So, uh, and that's what Amon-Ra St. Brown and CD Lamb both go at eight and nine overall if I'm not mistaken on underdog. So, that would be the difference.
Yeah. And I have um Devon Achane and Chase Brown and James Cook ahead of him because I just think that they're all bigger hits if they hit. Like Chase Brown, especially in PPR, in half PPR standard, I think Jonathan Taylor would be ranked ahead of those guys for me. But in PPR, uh Chase Brown had 88 targets last year. Devon Achane's one of the best receiving backs in the league. So in full PPR leagues, I would take those guys over Jonathan Taylor.
The guy I forgot that uh I guess we'll talk about probably in a couple seconds. Not quite yet, but um I have J.K. Dobbins at nine and Jonathan Taylor at 10, but of course we're going to talk more about Dobbins in a second. Yeah. Yeah. And and with Derrick Henry, the reason I think that he could regress is for starters, he's going to be 33 years old during the season. Um, Father Time, if he regresses in any form or facet, could catch up with him. He did kind of slightly regress a little bit last year. Not from like a yards per carry perspective, like he still averaged 5.2 yards per carry. He still had the big plays and all that kind of stuff. But the scheme change is the thing that I'm worried about.
I agree. And you mentioned in the first round, who could be this year's 2025 Saquon Barkley? Well, what if Derrick Henry is this year's Alvin Kamara where it's like we did see a decline in the player, but he got the projectable volume. People are probably like listening to this right now saying, "How the [ __ ] is Danny talking about Alvin Kamara?" Alvin Kamara was a third round pick in most of your leagues last year.
Yeah. And the scheme change going from Monken and Harbaugh who were the oldest head coach offensive coordinator combination like over 60 years old both of them in the NFL last year. You go from that old school mentality, the Ravens, a 49% pass rate team, dead last in the NFL, especially in the red zone. It was just hand the ball to Derrick Henry time. Declan Doyle and Jesse Minter are the youngest combined head coach offensive coordinator combination in the NFL. Declan Doyle is 30 years old. He is a year older than the quarterback of the team in Lamar Jackson. They both let or they all let as soon as they got in there likely and Charlie Kolar who were their two and three tight end set guys and they replaced them with two of the best 8 to 10 receivers in the class and Elijah Moore and Jacobe Meyers. So for me I think this offense is going to shift from like a 49% pass rate to a 54 to 55% pass rate which would still be below average in the NFL by the way. That's going to hurt Derrick Henry's volume and it might hurt his red zone rushing opportunities too because the one thing that's never happened for Lamar Jackson is red zone >> weaponizing the red zone.
Yeah, he's never been weaponized in the red zone. And what if Declan Doyle does that?
Yeah, I I think he absolutely could. Obviously, we don't have the sample because it's not like Declan Doyle. I mean, I guess >> maybe.
Well, that's what I mean. We got the one-year sample with Caleb Williams when he was working under Ben Johnson. Obviously, prior to that, like Jared Goff isn't I don't I don't have to say that Jared Goff isn't nearly the athlete that Lamar Jackson, >> but don't you think a young quarterback or a young quarterback guru, young head coaching candidate like Declan Doyle will just be smart enough to know that Lamar Jackson's kind of unstoppable on the ground?
I I totally agree with you. I think even though we don't have the sample, I think just from a pure context standpoint, you have Lamar Jackson, you are one of the best offensive minds potentially in the league. Because again, that's what the Ravens are hitching their wagon to. Jesse Minter, if I mentioned Clint Kubiak was the best coach on the market, Jesse Minter was probably number two or number three. Jesse Minter hitched his first head coaching campaign with Declan Doyle to run the entirety of his offense. If that's not the biggest uh positive thumbs up that you could possibly imagine for what this offense could be, I don't know what else what else can signal that. Like Jesse Minter outside of Mike McDonald is probably one of the most hyped up defensive minds we've seen come into the NFL. Yeah, and I'm really scared to be this in on the Ravens again because of last year I just got absolutely boned. But Lamar Jackson is an even year king except for the 2019 season. So typically he does better in even years. But anyways, let's talk about um the positive aggression candidates at the running back position. I'll start it off with Quinshon Judkins here. I can keep it pretty brief. The reason I think he's a positive regression candidate is because he missed the entire [ __ ] training camp last year. He wasn't on the field until week three. So, him not having a good yards per carry and a good, you know, efficiency marks of 3.6 yards per carry. The important thing that I think at the running back position, it's different than wide receivers. Running backs are different. The important thing you can do as a running back in your rookie season is command a huge workload. It is the number one thing that you can do as a rookie. And Quinshon Judkins from the very first snap of his career was already the starting ball carrier on his team. And not only that, he continued to get more and more touches as the offseason went along. We're now hearing beat writers say that they want to use them more on third down and Shadeur Sanders Casey Toole. Again, I'm not believing in the Browns offense. I have them 31st in my points per game projection, but if they're the 25th best offense in the league, it wouldn't shock me. I mean, Denzel Burke's an exciting young player. Casey Toole, a first round pick, Harold Fannin, if Quinshon's out there just running like a bat out of hell like I think he can, who was a really good prospect, who was the second best running back in the class by my evaluation, a top three to four running back by everybody else's. Um, yeah, it wouldn't shock me if he comes out and rushes for four and a half yards per carry his second season. So, when I was looking through my Dobbins notes, I saw that Dobbins had the second lowest yards before contact per attempt. He had 3.06 yards after contact per attempt, 3.7 overall yards per carry, therefore 64 yards before contact per attempt. The only running back that was worse than him was Quinshon Judkins. Quinshon Judkins 3.2 yards after contact per attempt. And as you see, the overall yards per carry wasn't indicative of that with 3.6. That means the offensive line was blocking up less than a half yard per carry for him.
By the way, an offensive line, which none of the returning starters are back, all five of them are different.
Including tackle and Spencer Fono.
I'm definitely going to have to raise him. Like the more I look into this range of running backs, initially I was kind of more so on like the Swift, the Montgomery side, but as the offseason's progressed, like Henderson, Judkins, I did move above those guys.
Yeah. And I I still really like Montgomery. Um
I do.
But uh yeah, Judkins to me it's like we >> What's a what's the definition of a dead zone running back, Danny? It's pretty much nothing like Quinshon Judkins. Like you don't get elite athletes, 220 plus pound guys who have more upside on third down based on the buzz that we're hearing who commanded huge workloads their rookie season. And again, all the beat writers keep echoing the point. They're like, people don't understand how crazy it is that he was the starting running back that missed the entire offseason. Like it's crazy that they believed in him that much that they gave him the workload immediately.
Yeah, I just moved him up. He's my 51st overall player and I moved him, like I said, ahead of Montgomery and Swift. So, I think he was at 57 before if you see him there. Yeah, he's at 51 now.
Yeah. And I'm probably going to move him up even higher than this cuz um I had Scataboo ahead of him. I'm definitely going to move Scataboo below him because I'm not as high on the uh the Giants offense. But yeah, I mean, when you're in the mid rounds, picking the right running backs and wide receivers, duh. Like that. It's hard, man. It's not easy. It's not easy to go into the dead zone for a running back. It's not easy to pick a wide receiver projection who seemingly blends in with all the other wide receiver projections on the board. So, picking the right guy and to me it could be Judkins just because of the heuristics factor of a 23-year-old back who was a starter as rookie season. I get the offense is bad, but like what if it's below average? And the thing is, you're not paying a crazy cost because he averaged 12.1 points per game last year and he goes off the board as the RB23. Corey, how many how much more than 12.13 points per game would he need to pay off at RB23?
Yeah, I mean RB23, if he finishes his RB26 again, like that's not a terrible pick. And again, like missed the entire offseason. What if Shadeur and Watson are better quarterbacks than what they were last year? I can guarantee the offensive line won't be as bad as it was last year.
No, you're right, man. And again, I raised them up my rankings cuz realistically, like when you're at that four or five turn and you start with two running backs and two receivers and you can rely upon him as a high upside RB3 or maybe you start off with three wide receivers and one running back and you said, "Hey, I have Bijan Robinson or Gibbs. I can take Judkins as my RB2 and if he does end up being a top 15 running back, my horses are [ __ ] high."
Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, I guess we're getting high on the Browns unfortunately this year. Um, Danny, I'll let you talk about Dobbins. Kind of already made the yards after contact point, the offensive line upgrade of Kyler Linderbaum coming in, the of course schematic upgrade of Clint Kubiak coming in. Uh, yeah, Dobbins is a big time positive regression candidate. Let's just say that. And when I say the sky is truly the limit, when you just see and I and I paint the picture and you close your eyes and I don't even say what happened in his rookie season, but when I say that a former top five overall drafted player is now going into year two potentially projecting for the most touches at his position in the league, you would say, "Wow, he might be John Robinson. He might be Jir Gibbs. He might be that level of fantasy asset." And I feel like the rookie season is kind of, you know, lingering on Ash and Dobbins because honestly, if he had 16 or 17 points per game, Corey, he'd probably be the fourth overall pick last year.
Yeah, probably. Yeah, he probably would be because if you look at his comps, year one running backs who were first round running backs who going into year two, you know, had a similar projection rookie season as as uh Dobbins. It is Bijan and Gibbs and Hampton technically, too. But Hampton's going into his second season, so we have data on him.
Yeah. And they were both prospects last year and everybody had Dobbins over Hampton. So, it's like even though Hampton obviously is going in that range in Hampton, I'm still very bullish on >> I prefer Hampton, too.
But there's just there's a difference in terms of the caliber of prospect both of them are. Even if you're higher on the situation side of Dobbins was better last year.
And that's the thing again. 300 carries, 75 plus targets. Not only would I say that would be what the ceiling could be, that's almost like the expectation like Ashton Dobbins could threaten 400 touches this year. I have the the projection I have for him in my projections is the most touches in the NFL. More than Bijan, more than Gibbs, more than McCaffrey. And I moved him up a couple of spots. I moved him ahead of Saquon Barkley who I had previously ahead of him. I moved him ahead of Justin Jefferson who I had previously ahead of him as well. I might get him up into the first round at the, you know, 111 112 territory. I think you could definitely make the argument that, you know, he's no different than Jonathan Taylor where you're just chasing him over chasing volume and hoping for efficiency.
Exactly. I have him ranked over Taylor because I look at the receiving opportunity, which by the way, again, people coming out of Boise State his final year, they're like, "Oh, well, he's nothing as a receiver. He set the record as a rusher, but he did nothing as a receiver." You got to look at the year prior where he had a 91 PFF grade and was arguably the most efficient running back as a receiver in the entirety of college football. We saw the flashes as a rookie. You always talk about how bad Geno Smith was. I'll bring up the other angle that we had Pete Carroll's freaking >> Nepo baby son coaching offensive line.
It was just a complete train wreck. They upgrade at 40 to 60% of the offensive line. Now you bring in Clint Kubiak who in the past two years with New Orleans with Seattle has led very good ground games. Last year with Seattle they were the number one scoring offense in the league. Look, I'm not going to say that the Raiders are going to go out there and score the 15th most points in the league, but I also do think, like we've had this conversation before, if they're in the 20 to 25 range and it's back weighted where Fernando Mendoza comes in week six or week seven and the offense all of a sudden is like a top 15 18 down the stretch, would you be shocked?
If Dobbins was the starting running back for the 2025 New York Giants, how much better would he have been if if you know Mendoza plays like Dark Blade down the stretch? Exactly.
Like how much better would Dobbins have been last year?
No. And that's exactly right because honestly like again are you gonna get 64 yards before carry per attempt again this year? My guess would be no.
No. And that that's why I'm I'm really warming up to picking near the end of the board because I actually really like a lot of the
Running back projections there, and given the the the top-heavy nature of the running back position in general. Starting my draft with Chase Brown, Genty, or Han Hampton just feels really, really nice to me.
It's cozy this year for sure. I just, if we were, if the year was 2016, Cory Genty would probably be a top six overall pick.
I mean, there's so many good running backs at the in the first 18 picks. I I think they would all be first-round picks, to be honest. Probably. Yeah.
It would literally just be the whole first round running backs.
There'd be two first-round receivers, maybe, and it'd be Chase Nikkua. [laughter]
Yeah. They'd be like, and they'd be like 106 and 112 as well. So.
Not wrong.
Um, let's talk about Saquon because as I just made mention to, he, I did just move Genty above him, just from a, again, from a heuristic standpoint. It's a 28-year-old running back who did show some fall-off. I'm factoring that in a little bit more. But the other side of the coin is that Saquon Barkley has been very, very good for a long time. And if Saquon Barkley bounces back to his kind of career efficiency mark of 4.66 yards per carry instead of the 4.1 that he had last year, the new addition of Shawn Manion, an expected increase in pass volume with Lemon and Sour coming in, that would all point to me to Barkley seeing more targets. Last year, he actually had more targets than he had in 2024. He had 50 targets last season. He was under 50 in 2024. He saw a top 10 target share among all running backs last year at 11.5%. And now with the Eagles losing AJ Brown and replacing him with two rookies, I have him for 74 targets in my projections. And if, if Barkley has, that's exactly the amount of targets Genty had last year. Like, I think Barkley getting back to his career efficiency marks and also getting an increase in pass volume, that's how he hits his ceiling. Do I think he'll 1,000% do that? No. There's obviously outcomes where he could go either way, but that's the ceiling case for Barkley. And I think the positive regression case is him just being way better than what he showed last year.
Well, that's the thing that I kind of always combat here because I am lower than you and I would say just the overall consensus. Like he goes 13th overall. I have him at 17 on Saquon Barkley because ultimately, when we look at what happened last year, I don't think it's just a random coincidence that his rushing efficiency went down. I think it was a byproduct of an aging older offensive line, and now you don't have Jeff Stoutland coaching it. On top of that, I just have a hard time projecting Saquon Barkley for a top three or top four overall receiving target per game mark in his entire career. Because when we look at his career, he's posted 70-plus targets, what, two or three times?
I don't know, man. When you look at his times.
He's since his college profile, he's proven that he's a top-tier receiving back.
He has 93 targets in his two years as an Eagle, though. Like.
I mean, but he also has a season in which he had 121 targets in his career, which is a high.
As a rookie. I know you're not talking about 21-year-old Barkley.
He's got three seasons of over 70 targets in his career. He has many, like a lot of his seasons were cut short by injury. If you go by a targets per game standpoint, you're talking about.
Sure.
Basically pacing a 70-target season every year except for his Eagles seasons.
If we were talking about 2018 Barkley, he'd probably be the first, second, or third overall pick.
I [laughter] know. All I'm saying is I think that the schematic shift is going to make Jalen Hurts do things that he's not always comfortable doing, which might be throwing Barkley more.
Now, the question that I have, though, if he's not comfortable doing them, and he hasn't really showed he can handle that in his career, by week five, week six, this man, you just say, "Scrap that. It's not working. We revert back to what's worked with Hurts." Like, that's the question.
It's not working. Yeah. But I think that it will go well. Uh, the Eagles could.
It could again, the Saquon's very divisive. And ultimately, if you want to have him as the top of that range in the second round, I don't think you're outrageous. I realistically closer for me, 17th overall. But we've kind of talked about it, like that range of running backs, it's a pick your flavor. If you're just all bought in, hey, the Eagles are going to bounce back, this is the same team that they were in 2022, 2024, and Saquon Barkley was a top three overall player in fantasy in 2024. If that's the belief, yeah, I can see somebody getting Saquon Barkley to that one-two turn. I'm just a little bit more pessimistic. It was just where I land in the mid-second.
I just, I got a five-time top 10 running back in fantasy on the board in the second round. Like, that just doesn't happen, frankly.
Derrick Henry's also available at the end of the second round.
I know, but Derrick Henry's 33. Saquon's 29. There's a difference.
Um, I much would rather have the Ravens insulation on offense than the Eagles next year.
I, I, I think they'll be about similar caliber offenses to me. But anyways, um, let's go into DeAndre Swift, who's a negative regression candidate. Um.
Yeah.
We've actually been pretty piled on DeAndre Swift. In fact, as of now, um, we're some of the highest on the site, including myself. I am the second highest on the site right now. Um, the negative regression case is kind of interesting, though, because when you factor in.
I'll just put this caveat on it. When you play for Ben Johnson, you're probably going to outperform regression stuff. Like, you, you're going to have better efficiency. But when you factor in that there's a second-year running back in his backfield that proved to be a pretty good player, that's kind of maybe where this regression could come in.
Yeah. And we saw kind of what it looked like in the first half of the year versus the back half of the year. First half of the year, DeAndre Swift, 15.9 point running back. Second half of the year, 13 points per game. So it all goes to say, again, I'll, I'll break it down in terms of what exactly went on in those splits. But if you told me that 13 points per game got about the RB21 off the board, like that's why I think DeAndre Swift is just a fine click. You saw I have him at 50 overall. What's his ADP on Underdog?
50.
Like, I have him exactly in line with ADP. But ultimately, I just think he's more of like a get-on-base play. Maybe you draft a receiver early along with a running back in the first or the second. You're like, ah, you know what? I'll just take my 13 points per game, eat my veggies, and I'll take DeAndre Swift. Because I project him closer to the second half of the year than I did in the first half of the year. Big context down the stretch of last year is the receiving usage. Weeks 1 to 8, a 49% route rate for DeAndre Swift versus only a 28% rate for Kyle Manungai. In the second half of the year, we saw Kyle Manungai's snap rate spike up, 37% of the routes. And it did have an effect on DeAndre Swift's receiving game. 3.43 targets per game in the first half of the year versus 2.67 targets per game in the second half. And that also coincided with the fact that in the second half of the year, the Bears are actually throwing the football more. 35 pass attempts per game from Caleb versus 31 in the first half of the year. When you take the overall usage as a receiver in weeks 1-8, he was number six in the league. Weeks 9-18, 36 in the league. He went from 27.43 to receiving yards per game in the first half of the year to 11.9. So again, I think it could pay off where he's going, 'cause realistically 13 points per game probably about the going rate of a fifth-round pick. But I do, I think he's gonna eclipse, you know, first half of the year he was probably about a mid- to late-third-round type of redraft asset. I don't think he can get back up to those heights.
Yeah, he feels like a small win, big miss. Um.
Like if he hits, like he said, he's like RB19 in points per game or something like that, which you, you'd be happy with that pick if you picked him in the fifth round, especially if he went kind of more fragile at running back and he was like your RB2 or something like that. You'd be happy with that. But he is like two and a half rounds more expensive than he's been the last two years. Um, and there's a guy in his backfield that is threatening him. That's the thing that I keep coming back to why I can't get too over my skis on DeAndre Swift because I just actually moved him down a little bit. Is I actually think Manai is a good player. And.
The whole, like, the low-hanging fruit is like, oh, he's the Montgomery and Swift is the Swift obviously because he's the same player. Um, but like, could it be like Cororum, Kirn, Warren, Da, like levels of close? Like, it might be like not that like Swift has been like a 65% opportunity share guy in the past couple of years. Like, if it's tighter than that, he doesn't have a whole lot of wiggle room outside of being really efficient on his touches, which I'm sure he can do. But yeah, I think the, the volume kind of is scaring me just a little bit more than it did before. And I guess the thing that I question too is obviously outside of that year with Philadelphia where it was just, you know, super, super low levels of receiving volume, 11.9 receiving yards per game in the backstretch, like we've applauded DeAndre Swift before because he has that safe target floor, because he has 20 receiving yards per game plus kind of in his range of outcomes every single year. If it's going to be closer to the 10 to 15 yards per game, two to 2.5 targets per game, like at that point, he's not a receiving plus. Yeah. The thing that I get, I come back to though, where I can't get too low on him either, is that I look at his projection. I'm like, I gave this guy a 55.74 opportunity share and a lower yards per carry than he's been typically averaging in Ben Johnson offenses, and he still scores over 14 points per game. And Mani, I gave for quite a bit of touches there. So, it's not like I can go in either direction on him, which, like you said, it might just make him a good fine pick.
Yeah. Like, if I go, uh, here, let me just quickly take a look and uh, pull up the splits as well, 'cause I want to compare them to ultimately what you had for the projections here. So, weeks 1 to 8 and weeks 9 to 17. I just want to see, uh, 'cause I'm curious, you got to what 4.8 or 4, 14.8 there, points per game?
14.3. 14.3 game. So the big difference last year was, uh, what did you have in terms? Can you show me the screen again? So in terms of carries, you had 246, which is about what? 246 divided by 17, give or take.
I'll do the math here.
13 or 14 per game.
Divided by 17 is 14.47 point, uh, carries per game.
Okay. So within a carry per game that he had at the second half of last year. But I'm assuming the main difference.
Targets per game.
The main difference, I'm assuming, would be just the receiving yards per game. Uh, 2.82 targets per game. The receiving yards, I gave him, I gave him nine yards per reception, which he's been quite efficient as a receiver in Ben Johnson's scheme.
Yeah. So, for example, at the 2.67 targets per game stretch, you had what would that be? 2.67 targets versus 11.89 receiving yards per game. Uh, so, what, five and a half yards per target?
Uh, yeah, something like that.
Five. Yeah. Uh, regardless though, I mean, even though you have him projected at 14.34, if I told you he averaged 15 and a half to 16, you would be extremely shocked.
I would be. Yeah. And I wouldn't be extremely shocked if, uh, Judkins, Henderson, Price, uh, Scataboo, the guys that are going around him broke into that like, 'cause reasonably, like 15, 16 points per game is what you're going to need to be a, like a true, you matter in fantasy running back. Like, you are very tradable, every week starter, no questions asked.
Yeah, I'm on the same page there. Uh, with DeAndre Swift, again, mid-fine price, but at the same time, like, speaking of price, I'd rather just take the upside shot on him. I'd rather take the upside shot on Tribion Henderson. I'd rather take the upside shot on Quench Judkins. Uh, Toutin, even Cam Scataboo for that matter. Like, there's just a lot of bats.
I take Swift over Scataboo just because I'm worried about the Giants. But the, yeah, the Toutins and the Prices and the, those types of players that are on better teams, um, that could match the upside, if not exceed the upside that Swift has, I think is definitely important. The other thing I guess that's worth mentioning is that Swift has, um, contingent upside that if Manai, he'd probably be a league winner. He's, he's honestly, funny enough, like obviously cheaper in terms of relative. It's like the Walmart running back version, but it's kind of like, I already made this comparison, the Pickens-Lamb thing, where it's like Pickens is probably a high-end wide receiver two in most range of outcomes, but the way he would smash, like Swift would be the other guy going down.
It's Walmart. He's Walmart, uh, Kyren, is what he is.
Kyren. Yeah, that's a good point.
He's Walmart Kyren. If Kyren goes down, Kyren's going to be a league winner.
Yeah, I'm on the same page there. And, uh, the inspiration I would say for this video when I texted you, Corey, the inspiration that I had for why I wanted to talk about regression candidates is just how insane the stretch, uh, was for Trey McBride week six on when Jacobe Brassette took over. And that chart basically indicates it clear as day, number one in terms of actual PPR points per game. Clear as day, number one in terms of his expected half-PPR points per game. And the reason being, the Cardinals were a [ __ ] unit when it came to throwing the football. When Brassette took over, McBride was at 21.1 points per game down the stretch. Corey, the second tight end in terms of routes per game was Brock Bowers at 32. In that stretch, Trey McBride was at 42 routes per game. Yeah, just a stupid season from Trey McBride. Like, I think we can acknowledge that Trey McBride is one of the best two tight ends, three tight ends in football and should be being drafted as one of the best two to three tight ends in fantasy. But at the same time, you can acknowledge that like what he did last year is probably unsustainable. Like, if Brassette starts, let's say Brassette started the whole season because I don't think he will. I think that Carson Beck will get in there at some point because the Cardinals are a bad football team and the Cardinals are going to want to look at their third-round quarterback at some point. But let's say for ease's sake, Brassette starts the majority of the games, if not all of the games, Trey McBride is not going to pace the tight end position by six fantasy points per game again.
Yeah. And on top of that, what played into it, Corey? The arguably the worst defense in the NFL and a running back rotation that consisted of me and you.
Like they were on their fifth string running back and Marvin Harrison Jr. missed the majority of those games.
Hey, you need special stuff to happen in season. Like, if you had Trey McBride, if you wanted to go on your fantasy football championship run, there's always players every year that will have, you know, an out.
I guarantee everyone won their championship with this guy. Like, he was an absolute monster.
Like 2025 week six on Trey McBride was kind of like 2024 playoff T. Higgins in terms of that.
2021 Mark Andrews was a good example of the last tight end that just sun ran the important weeks of the season. Like, other than week 16 against Atlanta, he was literally the one of the, and week 14 against the Rams, he was literally like the tight end one or two for like a seven-game stretch. Like he was a monster. An absolute monster. The goal for you and I is to try and predict the lightning in the bottle guys, not to take last year's lightning in the bottle guys.
Yeah. Especially ahead of cost, 'cause that's the thing, like we are paying for what McBride did last year, not what he's projected to do this year. And I mean, we could just talk about it, 21 points, uh, 21.1 points per game week six on. I talked about it with JSN, that was exactly what JSN averaged across the year. Trey McBride equal JSN if you had him week six on.
Yeah. And I have him projected for 15.34 points per game, which is still an extremely good season for a tight end. Would be tight end one, two, or three in 95% of NFL seasons. But it's like three and a half points per game less than he had last year and like six points per game less than he had down the stretch last year.
Yeah. It just goes to show again, no disrespect to Trey McBride, the player. Obviously, he's one of the very best in the NFL. He's a guy that we can expect to post, you know, an outlier stretch, but that's a 12-game stretch of him just being a top three to five player in fantasy.
Yeah. And that's with me, by the way, projecting the Cardinals to be a 60% pass rate team. Still a league-average offense or slightly below league-average offense in school.
And, uh, projected plays-wise, you're talking about above average, too, which I think are all pretty optimistic for the Arizona Cardinals. Like, they're projected to win four and a half games according to Vegas. Like, they could easily be a dumpster fire.
On top of that, they could have taken an edge rusher. They could have taken an off-ball linebacker like Areal Reese. They could have taken a Caleb DS. They needed everything on defense. You know what they [ __ ] did? They drafted a three-down workhorse at number three overall. And they signed Tyler Algier as a very good running back in his own right, too. So, yeah, it's, um, not looking great for for Trey McBride repeating what he did last year. Let me be clear. If he falls to the third round or something, like you could still draft him any day of the week. It's just he's not going to, like, don't draft him thinking you're getting last year's Trey McBride. Like, you probably won't. It was just like, it was one of those seasons where you just thank God you have Trey McBride because he was an, he was a monster and he was pretty much un.
If you played against him in your championship, like I did, it was pretty much impossible to win.
Yeah, you're cooked. And I'm telling you right now, down the stretch in those tight end premium dynasty leagues, we were feasting.
The fact that I didn't win the championship in Flock and right in a 2x premium with Trey McBride on my team is actually ludicrous that I didn't win the championship in that.
Skill issue. I'm kidding. Yeah, my running backs all got hurt, so that was pretty much why. Um, let's talk about some rapid fire guys. Um, we could say for free the Dallas Goddard's not scoring 11 touchdowns again.
The way he scored them, too, bro. Like the little [ __ ] shovel touchdowns. It felt like.
Dude, I swear Mason started him for all those games, too. Like Mason always had him when he caught like the little shovel pass and the [ __ ].
I, I am honest. I'm not even being facetious here. I think more than half of his touchdowns were shovel passes.
I think you're right. I mean, if you guys have a counter in the comments, feel free to leave it. But yeah, like.
It had to have been at least four to six of them.
Just do the math. He had 11 touchdowns last year. He had 10 in the four years prior combined. [laughter]
Yeah. And, um, Patullo is the one who called all those plays, who's no longer there. And I actually think that like 99% of the reason that Jalen Hurts is not going to have as few of rushing touchdowns as he had is because Dallas Goddard's not going to have this many receiving touchdowns.
It's a good point. And I mean, like, it, it is also remarkable, Corey. In the last 5 years, he's had three years of 2.2 or higher yards per out run and two years of 1.4 or less yards per out run. Like, what is going on?
Always going to hover around the 600ish yard mark. But they also drafted Eli Stoers, which is also going to factor into his, his routes and his, you know, target share and that kind of thing. So even if he, like, let's say, you go, "Oh, AJ Brown's gone. He's going to get more targets now." It's like, well, they drafted another tight end who's way younger than him. And they also waited till like the very last minute to bring him back too. Like, he was a free agent for a very long time. He could have easily signed with a different team.
Yeah. If he's not an Eagle right now, he probably goes closer to where, like, I wouldn't say where Njoku goes, but like somewhere in between where he goes now and where David Njoku goes.
Yeah. Like, I thought like the Commanders or somebody were going to sign him instead of, like, I think he would have made a better fit, um, than than what a Conqu was. But anyways, Tucker Kraft, the reason I say he's a regression candidate is because of how good he was in the eight games that he played. It's pretty much just unsustainable to connect on that many big plays and touchdowns on a full season standpoint. So, he could regress but be very good for fantasy still. The one thing I would say is like, maybe a negative against Tucker Kraft is he's not a huge high target commanding tight end to the point that if he loses some efficiency, which in his career has been outstanding, um, because of the ACL tear coming back from that injury, it might hurt him a little bit.
Yeah. And obviously, you know what you're getting when he is healthy. 2.63, 63 yards per run, 2.56 yards per run, yards per run last two years is very, very, very good. Uh, posted a 19% target share, which again, is solid, but at the same time, it isn't above 20%. Like, realistically, if Tucker Kraft's going to pay off like he did again last year, it probably looked the way of like what Andrews was doing in his prime.
Yeah, he's got to absorb the Romeo Doubs targets, the Jaden Reed targets, the Matthew Golden. Like, he's got to be the number one or two on the team for sure. 800 yards and 11 touchdowns is probably what he would look like if he really paid off.
Yeah. And I have him projected for 847 and eight, and he only has 11.8 points per game. Like, that's not, like, that's good. That's a top eight to 10 tight end every single year, but that's not a difference maker. So when you're drafting a tight end, let's say in in home leagues, he goes closer to like the six, seven turn, you're probably going to need a, a difference-maker ceiling. And I think he maybe would have that in a pass-heavy offense, but the Packers are not a pass-heavy offense.
Yeah. No, I'm on the same page there. Again, we'll see what happens with the Packers pass rate because we've talked about it this offseason, with Jacobs kind of missing time with Jordan Love just proving from an efficiency standpoint to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Maybe this is the year that we see them finally throw the football a little bit more. Again, we've kind of.
Blurred there. I don't see it. We.
That's what I'm saying. Like, it feels like we've made the case for Love in the past in that regard. So, it's probably a fine, a fine line to cover, but just trusting elite talent that was doing it last year where it is open that there's such a low passing volume offense. What if it's a two to three, you know, attempt per game type of increase? Like, I don't know. Uh, maybe it's more Marshon Lloyd and they want to space it out a little bit more. And obviously, we know with Tucker Kraft, a lot of his work has come around the line of scrimmage. Maybe they want to vary the usage a little bit more. Like, there's a lot that can kind of go into what the offense could look. I think it would be a lightning in the bottle situation. If you drafted Tucker Kraft and the Packers were all of a sudden pass heavy, it would probably be because Jacobs was like hurt or something like that. Like, it's probably not a situation that I would plan for at least, like, I would plan for the Packers to be run heavy because they always have been pretty much under Matt LaFleur. Um, same.
You're drafting them to be run, you're sorry, you're drafting Tucker Kraft with the expectation they're run heavy. All I'm saying is like, if it's more attempts than we've seen in the past, that is some, you know, potentially unaccounted for upside here.
Yeah. Yeah, that's fair. Um, George Kittle, same thing.
He ran pure last year with no Iayuk, with Debo gone, with Jennings and Pierce all banged up. He was great obviously when he was on the field and he was producing. I guess my thing for for me is like George Kittle has been an efficiency guy. He's always lived on efficiency and his target share could be threatened with Mike Evans coming in with Ricky Pierce all in year three. Does it, does he continue to break efficiency models at age 33 coming off of a torn Achilles? That's my whole thing with George Kittle because I am one of the lowest, probably on the site, on George Kittle. I guess I'm right in line with where his ADP is now. But, um, even still, I, I go like, in home leagues, like he's going two rounds higher than this, right?
Probably. Like, I am at 103, baking in that getting on Underdog, these tight ends are kind of pushed down just because people can draft two tight ends, three tight ends and not have to worry about pushing them up the board. Like, I think it's a little different when you're in a redraft setting and you're just prioritizing upside that the Kittle because he's the known commodity name that everyone remembers.
Exactly. So, um, he'll probably go closer to like 90, 95, I would say in most home leagues.
Yeah. Like, if I look at our consensus ADP actually, we have a, we can actually check. Um, I'm curious where George Kittle is going relative to his Underdog ADP because again, on Underdog, I think given the upside of the Best Ball Mania tournament and that kind of thing, freeballing the upside that he's just George Kittle of years past is probably smart given the the nature of the tournament. But in a home league where everybody's going to be thinking with rose-colored glasses and they want an every-week starter. Yeah, he is going a little bit higher. Pick 100 in home leagues on Sleeper at 97. Um, ESPN's a little bit janked right now, but, uh, CBS, he's going at 92. FPC, 7 tight end premium. So that's what's pushing him up a little bit. But generally, I think around pick 100 is probably where his home league ADP would be.
Yeah. And, uh, by the way, once we do go into the video of comparing the ADPs across the board, definitely appreciate that being a feature now on the site.
Yeah. And, um, I actually was talking to the devs about that today because, um, Yahoo and ESPN are so irritating because they don't actually draft on their ADP. They draft on Mike Clay's projections or the Yahoo X rank. How people are drafting teams in mock draft lobbies right now. So, it's a little bit skewed at the moment. We're going to get that fixed up by the time people are actually doing home league drafts. But, uh, yeah, those were regression candidates. A little bit more of like a podcast form, I would say. Uh, like video. We were going a little bit more in depth on players, talking about, I don't know, 12, 15 guys that we went through here. If you guys enjoyed this video, leave a like down below. If you, uh, want to subscribe, stay up to date here. About 50, 60% of you guys watching these videos don't subscribe to the channel. We haven't really promoted, you know, the road to 100K or anything like that, but we definitely would love to get there before like Christmas, if possible. So, um, if you haven't already subscribed to the channel, go ahead and do that. If you guys want access to all the tools that you guys we showcased on the site, our rankings tool, ADP, draft sheets are now live as well. If you guys, um, are, you know, drafting a different format like a start seven, you know, half PPR or standard, we have you covered now. Our, uh, our rankings will now be adjusted based on the format that you're searching for. So, definitely check that out. That is all on the site flockfantasy.com. You can use the promo code FSE right now, get the season pass for just 34 bucks. You'll be covered from now until the end of the redraft season for everything that you guys would need for that. Our draft guides, our, uh, weekly rankings, start sit, rest of season rankings, all that stuff will be included in your season pass subscription. And it is available now a little bit earlier than it was last year. And we didn't change the price. So, it's essentially the same exact thing we had last year, only there's more features, more tools, and you get it for longer. So, definitely check that out. That'll be linked down below in the pin comment. But with that being said, peace out. We'll talk to you soon.