Transcription
Hello, this is Critoly. I hope you are doing well. We are going to talk about ETFs today because the Shutdown is supposed to end soon. We should have a wave of ETFs arriving, and there are quite a few of them. We're talking about 155 crypto ETFs. What will be the impact on cryptocurrency? You will see that it is much more mixed than just a pump that will require careful selection, and especially how you too can make purchases on ETFs without buying ETFs directly with a single platform. We will come back to this. It is important to understand that there is a drastic change taking place, and we see this directly with Bitcoin OGs selling a portion of their BTC to buy ETFs on the side. This means we have a real shift directly in financial products. For those who don't know, ETFs are a basket of assets, meaning that when you buy an ETF, you make a purchase, and behind it, you have 10, 15, 20, 30, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000 assets that are replicated behind it. It is a financial tool that is literally exploding. That is to say, we see it clearly, it stops in 2024, but the type of investment in ETFs has almost doubled from 2023, and I think in 2025, it will continue. When we look at 2018, it was only 142, we are at 509, and we are really in the evolution of investors who have made at least one ETF transaction. So this means that we really have a dynamic that is being put in place in the use of these ETFs. And here, these are also ETFs in crypto that are a bit particular. Because why are OGs moving from one to the other? It's because we have the possibility through these products, so ETFs which are financial products, to incorporate them more easily into one's assets, to use long-term, to be able to simply manage them through one's bank, and certain companies cannot buy crypto outside of this. Hence the interest in these 155 pending crypto ETFs, and the list is relatively long. We will have Solana 23 ETFs, Bitcoin another 23 ETFs pending, XRP 20 ETFs, Ethereum 10 ETFs, Lcod 9 ETFs, Avalanche 7, and so on and so forth. The list is very long, so naturally, we ask ourselves the question of the impact of these ETFs on the cryptos in question. But already, we must understand that the fact that we have this wave of ETFs and demand and deposits means that there is real demand. There is an impulse to say "Okay, crypto in itself, there isn't necessarily a structured ETF, we have a lot of ETFs on a single crypto, and in the long run, I think we will have multi-crypto ETFs or ETFs that will be structured around potentially an index like the top 10, AI, altcoins, etc., etc. Globally, a range of financial products that will allow exposure to cryptos." before talking about the impact this can have directly on cryptos, the fact that these ETFs are launching, and you will see that it is important to understand that it is not that simple. If you too want to simply use forms of ETFs called bundles to buy cryptos, it is possible, mainly on Kraken if you wish. There are several bundles available. The duo where we will have BTC and ETH, very simple, very effective, conservative long-term, it works perfectly in a DCA. No need to bother with doing a DCA, BTC ETH, you invest directly in both. You have the leading cryptos, you have the strategic reserve. So here, we are playing a specific narrative, we will have DeFi, we will have meme coins, AI, it is available only on the Kraken application. It is very simple to use. You have a link in the comments in the description to get a €15 bonus upon registration and as soon as you start buying. And if you are interested in me building specific bundles based on my convictions, whether short-term, medium-term, or long-term, let me know in the comments. It will interest me. I will see with Kraken if it is possible directly. But clearly, we know that ETFs have a big interest because, by default, there is a rebalancing within them. Rebalancing, what does that mean? It means that we keep, for example, here, always the 70-30, and it is something that directly simplifies things. As long as the balance is maintained, there are sales and purchases that are made according to the price fluctuations of BTC to always maintain this percentage of exposure, and this allows for continuous rebalancing of one's portfolio, and we know that it is widely used, and we see it clearly anyway, even in traditional finance, and it will necessarily happen with cryptos afterwards. But so, what will be the impact of these 155 crypto ETFs directly on the prices? I think when we look at BTC, the impact that BTC or even Ethereum has had, we might think it will make prices skyrocket. When we look at the actual impact of BTC, we see that since their launch in January 2024, it represents 6.85% of the BTC supply, which is enormous, meaning here an inflow of 747,000 BTC, which is enormous. We see the purchase and the impulse clearly. We clearly saw the impact it could have on prices in the expansion phase, whether it was directly what led us to the top before the halving in March 2024, what also gave us when we had a lot of liquidity injections at the end of 2024, or the acceleration we experienced in 2025. So it has a strong impact on BTC because BTC also has a vision of being a store of value. We know that many institutions are entering BTC, but is it the same for all ETFs? Not necessarily. Already, when we look at Ethereum, we see that it is much more complicated. For Ethereum, we had a lot of liquidity injections that were mainly driven by companies that bought Ethereum treasury through ETFs. But when we remove these people, unfortunately, we see that it is much, much more difficult. And we see clearly that we have had much longer phases with small accelerations, plateau phases, and a huge acceleration in June-July mainly driven by this narrative dynamic around companies that bought Ethereum through ETFs. So the impact is still relatively minor. But what will be super important for me is this graph. When we look here at BTC and ETH ETFs, and when we remove BlackRock, we see that it is not at all the same thing. We see that BlackRock has a huge weight on the inflows, and therefore BlackRock dominates a major part, and this is greatly visible on BTC ETFs. Here BlackRock represents 645,000. Wait, I'm not at the end. Excuse me. Let's do it again, almost 800,000, while Fidelity is 200,000, which is the second. So we see that we are four times more than the second. So we really have a dominance of BlackRock in this. So this implies that in all these ETFs, what will be interesting to see is which ones will actually be supported by BlackRock or Fidelity, but especially BlackRock. They are the ones who will attract the most liquidity. They are the ones who will be pushed to be integrated certainly into portfolios, and then we will see which ones will remain in the long term. Many will disappear, we are used to it. And then what will matter to me will be the arrival of multi-crypto ETFs with the equivalent of an S&P 500, without necessarily being 500, but perhaps a top 10 crypto. Something that has some logic in terms of exposure across all narratives with specific weightings. We will bypass products that will be of this type. Something that is already found on Kraken here. Don't forget, you have the link in the comments in the description. At that point, we will also have a logic of integrating these ETFs into investment strategies of hedge funds and institutional investors, and also perhaps of ordinary people who will buy them in the same way they buy their Nasdaq or their S&P 500 everywhere. And this is something that will eventually change the game. Will these launches change anything? We can have a speculative phase, yes, but will it change anything in the long term? No, for me, it is not enough. We absolutely need validation of inflows behind it, and especially products that are not just on one crypto, but on something more structured that will also show that the market has evolved behind it. And this evolution will be essential rather than a list as long as your arm of a multitude of assets. So something that is not positive for institutional investors. They will not have 50 ETFs to gain exposure to 50 cryptos. They will prefer to gain exposure to BTC and wait for structured products that will allow them to gain exposure to several cryptos simply by limiting management costs. Something that will certainly be offered. By whom, you ask? By BlackRock. And it is something that will be valued in this way. Anyway, investment, we have seen it clearly, is gradually turning towards increasingly automated investments, and that is a reality. Here, the source is the AMF. So, even in France, we have an ETF that is taking precedence in structuring assets. We buy via ETF, it's simple, it's effective, we buy once, everything is rebalanced, we don't worry about it, and it's an exposure that is continuously updated. There is no need for reflection on this. It allows us to gain exposure index-wise, and it is something that will also take precedence over crypto. Perhaps not tomorrow, but perhaps in the years to come. And I think that in the long term, gaining exposure to, for example, a 70-30 duo index with a form of DCA BTC and ETH with a 3-5 year vision is perhaps one of the best decisions I will make on my end. Will it be the same for you? Let me know in the comments. I'll see you very soon for a new video.