Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto. I hope you are doing well. Yes, that's it, the shutdown is certainly over. This was the significant point we were waiting for last week and which will happen this week. We haven't played yet, but we are moving forward little by little in the right direction. Direct reaction at the futures level on macroeconomics, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. We are pushing hard and for once BTC and the altcoins are following too. This is very good news. We will define the key zones to break imperatively to resume an upward trend and the zones to hold which will be essential. I remind you that tomorrow, I am doing a masterclass at 7 PM directly on the entire market. We will go back over what is happening. Is the cycle over or not? Are we in an acceleration phase or not? What will be the share of trading versus investment? What is interesting in decentralized finance? In short, I will give a general overview of what is happening. It's Tuesday, November 11th at 7 PM. To register, it's in the comments in the description. That way, I will send you the link directly by email. In the meantime, we have good news. That's it, the Senate is moving towards the end of the Shutdown. A shutdown that lasted an eternity, that broke all records and that will hurt, very, very much. We are potentially talking about negative GDP for the 4th quarter. So, of course, it will have an economic impact, but the market is already rejoicing because it means we will have data, and this data will allow us to have a vision of where we stand in terms of the total American economy. And this is the most important point, and it's what we were really waiting for last week. Last Friday, we felt it was getting closer, but it wasn't enough, and now, apparently, over the weekend, it's done. It's true that the real weight, for example, of the decrease in air traffic over the weekend, a weekend that is getting closer to Thanksgiving, so we are starting to see departures, these are important moments in the US, well, it weighed on the Democrats, and apparently, there are enough Democrats for the funding bill to be extended until January 29th, and then we will move on to a new budget. That's it, it's started. So, a rather positive reaction in the market, as I was telling you, and we still have a very strong difference between the probability of negative GDP due to the Shutdown and a Trump announcing potentially $2,000 returned to all Americans in the form of a tariff dividend. So, that is to say, a dividend on the tariffs that were put in place. We always know that taxes are a bit blocked by the Supreme Court. It is probable that a part will be canceled, perhaps even reimbursed. Well, we don't really know what the purpose of this type of announcement is, other than to increase his popularity and the popularity of customs tariffs. Knowing that he has made a number of communications recently, really pushing the idea that tariffs are the necessary lever for the USA to become the most respected country again. To become the most respected country. For now, we are mainly waiting for the Supreme Court's decision, which should not be long. In the meantime, we have a Nasdaq that is reacting positively. We already saw on Friday that we had recovered a large part of the candle. I had also explained that we were heading very strongly towards the end of the shutdown. It had been a little anticipated on this side. We are starting to see an RSI that is picking up again, as usual. We will retest the 50 a bit before moving on again here. So, we have a momentum that is structuring itself at the level of the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. For now, we are just on futures. So, the American market is not yet open. It will be very interesting to see its opening, to see if we validate the movement well, if we don't reverse it, and if we even have an acceleration, why not. It would be perfect to regain 25,800 to have a good pivot and then re-accelerate to make a new ATH calmly at the Nasdaq level. And for once, we have BTC following almost. When we look at the state of this candle on the BTC to Nasdaq ratio, we see that the candle is flat, slightly green, so a slight outperformance of BTC compared to the Nasdaq. So, this means that we are managing to follow the movement and we are validating. Unfortunately, it's not over yet, but we are validating the support here that has held well to be able to re-accelerate and find ourselves around 456 in terms of ratio. So, an outperformance of BTC compared to the Nasdaq, and we will see once we are at these levels. So, it's very, very positive. In the meantime, we have BTC, BTC. When we look at the CME, the closing we had weekly at 104,000 is not huge. It was really not what we wanted. We really wanted to regain 107,000. We see that the re-acceleration this weekend is rather positive. We are regaining 106,000. It's not enough yet. We need to push, push more. I will give you the levels later, but we see that we have well, if we zoom out a bit on the CME, the level of 50 has been maintained, the level of 50 on the RSI, so the ratio of 50 on the Fibonacci retracement of the entire weekly movement that we could have experienced. Here. So, a very good reaction. We must imperatively validate with an acceleration. And similarly, at the RSI level, we see that the 50 level has been respected, which is the level that systematically supports us to move on again, where we see a regain of momentum. Even if we can work more before being able to move on again, it doesn't prevent that the momentum is coming back and it's positive, even if we are at the end of the year, an end of the year where we know it's always a bit complicated. I think the date to remember will certainly be Thanksgiving, which has always been a pivot date, whether in acceleration phases or in bearish phases. And it's a date that we will have to note at some point on our calendar to follow very closely. In the short term, we see on the 4-hour chart that indeed we have broken the level that was important, 104,500, a short-term level, in any case, that was important, which gives us a phase of acceleration and brings us towards a retest of a huge resistance zone, a resistance zone that we saw well, 106,000, 107,000. This was a big support zone and it has certainly become a big resistance zone, so we will struggle a bit. If we break 107,000, I'm heading for 111,000. And if we break 111,000, then, at that point, we can say that we might make a new ATH before the end of the year. But for that, it's $111,000. As long as we don't consolidate above it, it means that for me, we are still in an attempt to retest. We don't have a sufficiently significant breakout phase. We have already seen it several times that this type of structure resembles this type of structure on a smaller scale. Here, we will have a top here, a top here, a low here, a low here, a top lower than this one, see exactly here. And a retest, similarly, we hold and we re-accelerate. Now, my question is, is this acceleration equivalent to this one? Do we have to go a little higher to make it identical here? Will we be rejected at 107,000? Will we be rejected before 111,000? Wouldn't the pivot level be 111,000 here with liquidity grab and then fail there? These are scenarios that are perfectly coherent. Okay? For now, there is no change in dynamics. For me, the real breakout, there is a first small breakout that is validated here by this liquidity grab, but the real breakout, it happens at 111,000 to really have a reversal, regain $107,000, regain the trendline that was present here, $111,000 which is a very important pivot point to be able to re-accelerate. I think that if we consolidate above 111,000, we will certainly have a BTC before Christmas, certainly an ATH or at least not too far from a new top, but that's still too early to say. Already, a positive point is that we are regaining acceleration and, above all, BTC is really following the Nasdaq, and BTC is not the only one following. All the alts are also picking up with a small acceleration. Alts, it's still less than BTC, but similarly, we have maintained a level above 50, so the momentum is still a bit better than the different retracements we've experienced so far. And even at the BTC dominance level, we still see that BTC dominates, and we will have to watch this small zone here, still at the momentum level. We see that we are potentially in a breakout phase. If that's the case and we validate it well on this week's close, it would mean that we have a much more significant BTC acceleration phase than that of altcoins, and again, an underperformance of alts. Very important. However, if we are rejected here, it is probable that we will have something like this. So, a dominance that will decrease and certainly a return of altcoin strength by the end of the year. It's still too early to talk about that. We will first need to validate the key levels on BTC, then hold them, and then have an acceleration phase, and we will consolidate afterwards. What are the levels for altcoins that are following, and how far can we go afterwards? We will have to see if the injections and withdrawals of liquidity in ETFs are necessarily following, if the institutional amount is still as strong or not decreasing. On Friday, November 7th, we saw $558 million leave. Will the Nasdaq's acceleration phase allow for an increase in institutional risk? Something that is rather classic, especially since the shutdown is over. Now, we are mainly waiting for the Supreme Court for the tariffs, and unfortunately, we don't have a date for that yet. When we look at the order flow figures, we also see two small things that correlate with what I've just explained: we are reaching here the structuring of leverage and the delta of leverage among top traders. We are reaching a key zone, so it's in the zero zone, and so we could very well move into an acceleration phase. Generally, when we go back above zero, we have acceleration phases that last a little while and that correlate here with the open which remains relatively stable. So, this means that we do have a change in structure at the leverage level among top traders, and therefore potentially an acceleration phase to watch closely. The timing will play a huge role, and don't forget, the most difficult thing in all of this is not to FOMO and not to fall into extreme fear. It's always to remain as factual as possible on the key levels, and I have given you my key levels. Now, it's up to you to manage your risk, and above all, understand that everything is a question of exposure. It's always the most difficult, especially at the end of the year. We are forced to potentially price the end of the year which would represent the end of the 4-year cycle, and we are also forced to price the possibility that this 4-year cycle, with the arrival of institutions and ETFs, could change with perhaps something longer with new rules that we don't know yet and that we will absolutely have to adapt to little by little. Don't forget, don't be rigid, that's really the key, I think, to getting through this end of the year and the continuation of 2026. In the meantime, take care of yourselves. We'll be back very soon for a new video. Don't forget, before you leave, like, share, and subscribe. M.