Transcription
What I miss? What are you crazy kids doing? All right, give me a second. Let's get you the fancy opening. Let's get you some tunes so we can get this party started. All right, let me hit this and then let's get to it and we will get this party started. Heat. Heat. Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey.
All right, let me hit this button. Now I'm going to get the drink. I should have turned the music off. I don't know why it's so damn dark. Uh, give me a second. Maybe if I do this, did that change it? Yay. Good morning. All right, let me make sure I got the right mic on. I moved some things around. I don't know. This seems like really, really aggressive, but it is what it is this morning. I don't even have my. Okay, I think if I do it that way. Hold on. Maybe if I do it this way, it'll be better. Hold on. Hold on. Okay. Is everything going in the toilet this morning? Jesus. See what that does. Is that better? That's better. Yay. Kind of. Not really.
All right. Here we go. Follow me for more tech tips. All right. So, here's what we have to do. I got it. I got it. I got it. Hold on. Don't look at the ceiling. Hold on. We got it. We got it. All right. Yes. Yes. All right. Cool. Then just do this and you're good to go. Watch. Watch this. Huh? Who can do things and got two thumbs? Me. There we go. All right. Good. And audio is good. Yep. Visual effects. Jesus, that's a lot. All right, cool. All right, we're better. Um, okay. Uh-huh. Yes. All right.
So, let's just keep going here. All right. Cool. Um, where to start? I don't think anyone should be overly surprised by this. Um, you had a ton of headline risk for sure. Let's get a quote up here. You know, I have people that actually email me when I don't put the quotes up. Uh, oh, we're going to have to use this one again, I think. Uh, war spreads to ground in lab. Uh, >> US market >> Pinterest. I don't have that on my list. Uh uh what else do I really want to point out that's out there? Uh Hertz. Okay, so let's get this out. Uh, position, slow speed, normal. Oh, I can do fast speed now. Let's do fast. See what that does. Where'd that go? Here it is. Oh, that is fast. Is that too fast? I don't think so. I think we can handle that. We'll vote on it.
All right, let's get to it. We got a crap ton to get to and I'm bleeding through every orifice this morning. So, uh, the first thing about days like today for me is just understanding that they're going to happen. And after 27 years of doing this, it is what it is. Um, everybody thinks it's one thing that's going to clip you and it's always something else, right? So, for me, looking at the way that you're set up today is if I was to take this off for a minute and we're just going to do this super super quick for you guys to get this. So, I'm just going to click this off and you're not going to know what that is, but you know what it is. Like, that's the NASDAQ with a declining 55, a declining 22, and a declining 12. And people are sitting here surprised that it's rolling over. Like, you can't be surprised. It's the same exact thing we had over here. We talked about this about a month ago where up down, right? So you came across and this was actually pretty much just took it out by a second and then you took it down here, right? I mean, we went over this and then NQ, right? If you look at the Q's in the cash market, it's actually cleaner, but you have this huge divergence and you've had it. It's the same time as last year. So I don't know what it's going on here, but this time of year on anything, it seems historically that we're just at risk.
So, it is what it is. What I think the important thing about it is what do you do about it? Like, how do you profit from it? And I I want to do a little bit of what I did privately this morning in the community. You need to do yourselves a favor because I think it's really important because people can get slammed here. Um, you need to do yourself a favor and just do some good old-fashioned risk management 101, which is run through every single position in your portfolio and go, "Where's my stop?" Then after you list all 10 of your trades or 20 trades, however many you have on, quantify that number and then say, can I handle this number? And if the answer is no, then you know what you have to do. You have to change the number. And that's super important for you to get this morning, right? If I can just tell you the one thing that's going to change everything today, like when I walked in today, I knew exactly what I'd be down. And I'm long, so I'm down. I mean, I had a really good trade that offset a lot of it, but really stupid name I own less than 1% of um but uh, you know, historically in looking at something like this, you have to realize that no one knows how this is going to end. Anyone that's telling you that they know how it's going to end is delusional. Uh, these people jump from, you know, expert in this to expert in that. You have no idea how this ends unless you're entrenched in this. So what we can do about it is understand that we have one thing that we know. We know technicals. And so what we do is we use what we have and then we make decisions based upon that.
So if we go here and take a look and we come here and we just drop it like it's hot because the kids do still say that. My son told me that. And we look at these levels. I don't know how we feel about that. That's going so fast. Is that fast for everyone else? It seems fast for me. So, we're going to hide that for a second and then we're going to edit it. I'm going to go back to normal speed. I can put it up top, too. Oh, yeah. Let's see what it looks like up top. Hold on. How do we feel about that? I don't know that I'm digging that up top. That makes me uncomfortable. Not now, Larry. All right, cool. Let's do it. I like that. Just chill. Normal on the bottom is what it is. All right, let's go.
So, if we take a look at that and we look at these levels right in here. All right. So, what we want to do here more than anything is just watch that level. Now, you're going to break down this morning to these levels that you don't really want to see. I'm going to give you a couple that you're going to want to jot down this morning. Hold on. Let me guess. Get to this. Um, I can shrink you down. I don't know why this I don't know why Apple sucks so much. Not Apple, Windows. Let me see if I can find this really quick. So, I wrote down all these levels and now I just got to find them for you guys. And Uh, SnagIt. I started using this other app called SnagIt. I really like it. Makes me happy. And I would definitely watch last night's video because it shows you some things. I also smart money, dumb money flipped yesterday, and that's not good. So, that usually means we're in for more pain. Let me see if I can find these levels. I just grabbed them. Um, here we are. And give me one second. 24605. 24 Okay. All right. With you. 24605. Hold on. Um I said this earlier and I meant it. Oh, you guys weren't. All right. So, uh, I am definitely the community is open now and so some people are going to get invites. If you're trying to get in, please make sure you're on there. Um, it's 605 is what you're looking for here. So, I'm just going to type it there because I'm not going to screw with this all morning. I got too much to do. Um, that's your first level. And then your second level is going to be 23 9. What I mean, why can't you get bigger here? 23. Oh, come on, Boomer. Get it together. Hold on. Let me just do it this way. Yep. Perfect. All right. 38 second. Watch these levels if you get to them. You do not want to break these levels. and you already broke one. So, just jot them down if you're trading there. Um, but let's get to this to a five and let's take a look at it. So, to me, you're already rolling and and you're really going to want to be cognizant of that. Um, I'm going to show this here and then I want to come to this and then show you something that I think super important. You've broken all these already here as well, right? So that's really on the menu.
Now let's go to the hourly for a minute. All right. So you can see these levels. Let's go to the 4 hour. And then what we're going to do is we're going to do this because this is like final boss level right there. Okay. That's not good enough. Right. That's not right. Okay, that's right. So that's final boss level right there. 2394450. like you do not want to break that because that's going to be your VWAP from the low. You that that's a problem. That's definitely a problem. Um that's like a problem area. I fully expect you have the possibility of a low off the open followed by some kind of uh bounce. Um, what I will say to you is so far I'm not seeing any kind of bounce this morning at all yet. Like nothing. So, with stuff like this, it can always always get worse than you think it can. Um, I'm not seeing anything here that's leading to me feeling any kind of way um about a bounce. So, you know, we'll see. We'll see what happens. Now, I'm certainly not seeing it yet. I'll I'll say it that way.
So, let's leave it at that. Um, if I Let's do it this way. If I use those levels, which I think are important, I at least have an understanding of where I could go to. And of course, if you break above that, I think you can get to that 25. I don't know how long you're going to stay down for. What I do think that you have to play with here more than anything, um, give me one second. Um, hold on one second, guys. Let me get that for you. Give me one second, guys. I got to do this. Okay. Well, you're in my way. Go to here and Um, one second here, guys. I got to do this and then I'll be good. One minute. Hold on one second. Damn it. I don't really have a choice here, guys. All right, cool. Sorry. Sorry, guys. All right.
So, we want to watch those levels. And then we're going to go here. I'm going to look at the ES, same levels. Now, here's the thing that really bothers me about this. That's that big CTA level right there. And you're on it right now. You're literally sitting on it. You do not want to break here either. And I do think that you have the potential to get there. That's not that far off, guys. Just for those that are wondering like why would I even think that? That's like 3% from where you are. You You could be there today. So I I really don't view that as like the end of the world to say that you can get there. You 100% can get there. So understand that. Um you can 100% get there. And so let's just get to this so you can see it even cleaner and understand it. Now, what I can do too is drop this in and I will try to answer questions today, guys, but um, as you can tell, slammed. I don't even have time for Larry and his nonsense. I went out there looking for his little birdhouse. I can't find it. It's got to be close. It sounds like he's in my freaking ear half the time taunting me. Hold on. Most people probably be happy to have a little bird friend, but I find it annoying. All right. See where you're at? So, look at it. Look at it. So, that's where I would start. We'll go out to the 4 hour again. So, you would say like, where could we get to? And it gets pretty wicked out there, man. Like, it's it's pretty wicked out there. So, you know, you need to hold in here. Um, you really don't want to start breaking this stuff and getting off balance like this. And you're off balance here, guys. So, I'm going to leave all those levels there. Uh, but you're really off balance here, and you really want to watch that.
So, all right. So, give me a sec here to check this out here. The question is how much do how much pain do they put people through this morning before we bounce? Larry, you're killing me. Larry One more sec here, guys. I got a lot going on today, guys. Like a lot. So, bear with me. Bear with me one second. All right, cool. Sorry, guys. Let's take questions for the time that we have. because I'm not going to have much time here. I can see it. Too many things are moving. Too many moving parts. You're going the wrong way. So, it looks to me like it's going to be a flush off the open and they're going to make men out of people and then we're going to have to go from there. Let's get to this quickly. I'm not going to answer specific questions about names. If I do, I'm going to do it super fast. So, let's do it. Let's get through it because I'm gonna have to jump here. Oh, there's too much going on. Any edge defense names. I wouldn't go near. I I think I think it's complete. Here's where I think you are. I think it is complete risk on and risk off. And you're already going to start with this stuff today, right? This whole thing's gonna have a problem. So, I can already see this happening, right? They're gonna tell me this thing's gonna be slow all day long. Not today. Not today, Satan. Let's go. Stay with me one second here. I wouldn't go near any of this stuff, dude. I I really wouldn't. I I think it's all risk off is really what I think they're doing. I think that everyone is literally looking at this and going, I don't have a freaking clue what I'm supposed to do, so I'm going to go to cash. That's that's really where my head is this morning with everything. Um, I really feel that way about this. I really feel like they're looking at this and saying to themselves like, "Hey, I don't really know how this is going to play out. So, I'm just going to go to cash on everything and then from there I'm going to put myself in a position where I'm going to regroup. Like I I truly think that that's where you're going with this. Um that's where my that's where my head is with it when I first look at this because it's going to be so vicious off the open that that's where I think people are going. know like if you look at defense for example and then we look at like TNK um why aren't you up DHT like why aren't you up? We closed this yesterday and I know people were thinking like why in the world are you closing this? Um, and the reason I closed it was exactly like this. It was exactly for this reason. And what what you really want to do in these kinds of environments is you don't want to get caught. You literally want to put yourself in a position here where these are the kinds of names you're looking for. And I know I'm jumping around a lot because I'm trying to pack it all in this morning, guys. Um, you really want to go through this and say, "All right, well, what are the names I have to concern myself with? What are the names I'm not concerned with? Where does this put me and what do I want to do about it? So like for me the most important thing about this is what do I really you know what do I really want to do here? I I look at this stuff and say to myself like I think you want to put yourself in a position of success. So for me I don't want to buy anything that everybody else has already bought. Like I don't want to buy defense I because everyone's in that. I don't want to buy the tankers because they're not working and they should work. So then you start going through, well, what the hell do you buy, right? Because you have to look at this. They're selling gold. Like none of it makes any sense. So you have to literally go through this and say to yourself, what are they really doing? They're really derisking, right? So like if you really go and look at the market and you go like, well, here's IGV, which is down like a dollar and change, and here's the SOX, which is, you know, taking it in the proverbial kester this morning. Like, well, why is that happening? What do you What do you need issues this morning? Yeah, Discord's going to have issues this morning. It's amazing to me how this stuff always has issues. Anyone ever noticed that? Whenever you truly need it, it always has issues. So, I'm going to go self-sufficient, I think. Seven days, no limits. Five uses. I think we're going to do that. Five days, 10 uses. Let's go there. Generate new link. Uh if you're trying to get in, make sure you are on the list because I'm going to do it for about a week and then I'm shutting it down. Uh that enrollment will shut down. Um but look at the difference here. Like that's what you're going through this morning. They are unwinding their shorts and selling their longs. It's it's just it's get me out. So the idea that I'm going to go run into the names that everybody else is buying and prop them up. No. What I want to do is I want to look at those support levels and then make better decisions. I want to get to the point like John like with all this I'm just telling you how I do what I do in this environment. You should do what you're comfortable with. I get to the point where everything I'm looking at is a move the needle trade that I want to stay in. So like I have a huge position in EWI. I'm doing nothing this morning with it. Like literally nothing. I'm probably going to buy more. Um, but I'm looking out like a long period of time. Give me a sec, please. So when I say I'm doing that, like I'm looking out, you know, weeks or months before I even think that there's certain critical mineral names out there I want to buy and I'm looking at this stuff and saying to myself, "Oh, I'll just wait." Like everybody wanted to own this until nobody wants to own it. Uh, okay. You know, I'm buying companies at five times earnings. All right, I'll wait. I'm in no hurry. So, unless we think that AI is going to be disrupted by the Iranian Republican Guard for some reason, but you know, and what you want to do with this stuff, too, is just watch the VIX. You know, where's the VIX? 26. What do you really need on the VIX to really have a bottom? You know, to really get a bottom 60. So, have you really panicked? Is this real panic? Is it? Is it? It's not. So, keep that in mind. Um, but I wouldn't look at that. I wouldn't be going, I got to buy defense. Like, what do you know that everyone else doesn't know? You're in a war. I mean, everybody knows that. Um, I think that this was super interesting. I had a trade in it last night and I closed it. And just the sole reason I did candidly was because of today and um I thought this went exceptionally well last night and actually I'm going to put a note out there because it was great. Conference call was great. Um sats I don't think people truly understand why they want to own this and then like everybody got excited when they said oh they're going to move up the IPO. Like you're still buying the damn thing at a discount. So, what do you care if it's March or August? Like, it doesn't make sense to me. Netflix makes a lot of sense because you had a catalyst and so people will look at getting into the names that had the catalysts. They'll try to buy those names. Um, there's literally nothing wrong with that, about trying to get into those names. I don't see anything wrong with that at all. Um, but what else here? I'm trying to go through today, bro. I don't care about the March 10th right now. Yeah. I mean, if you look at UVIX, it's a great way here um to hedge that. And then what you really want to do when it's over is you just um you short like short VIX here, which is kind of crazy that you're right, like if you want to short the VIX and you see where VIX futures are. Um it's kind of funny like in a way, right? because you're looking at the VIX and you're like, "Okay, well, here's the VIX and this is where you were yesterday down and now here's where you are and then you go SVIX." Um, and now you're down today. So, like if you wanted to be short the VIX, right, because you think it's going down, you can see how that's going today. So, um, for me, it's funny. I did this trade like back here and everyone like groaned, it's not moving. And I'm like, it takes a long time. and you know it doubled but what do I know? Um but UVIX like this thing's a lot of fun to short. You just have to have like patience to short it. Um but you can do really well shorting this thing. So I don't know that you're there to to be uh to be shorting it just yet. Um, you know there's a time and a place where you can do exceptionally well shorting this thing like really really well on these spikes. Um, you need to me you need somewhat of a high to like put the thing on, leave it on, and then when you wait for like the first higher high and then you just get out of it. Like if you look here, like you popped up right, you undercut kind of like a dark cloud cover. Not now, Larry. And then what you're doing is you're looking for that first higher high close. It's kind of here. So maybe that would have gotten you. Um, if it doesn't get you like now you're down here looking at it and going, "Well, we still didn't make a higher high." like you really don't make a higher high close to five. It's kind of crazy. So yeah, I mean you want this thing to get as high as possible so you can short the heck out of it. Um guys, I'm not going to have time to do all these. I'm going to have to jump. Um let's go through these possible bounce for miners. Everything's risk off. So you have to think about it from a risk off perspective, man. So like I own the miners um and I'm going to add to them, but everything's risk off this morning. Like nothing nothing is holding here, man. Like I own, you know, let's just get to it. Like I own AG. I'm down three bucks, you know, welcome to the party. Um, you know, I own SSRM. Like, they're just going to smoke everything. So the goal with the way that that a hedge fund or a large institution looks at this is get me the heck out and then I will regroup and re-evaluate what I'm doing. And that's exactly what's happening here. They are just saying get me out. South Korea's tied to exports. You know, they're not getting oil with the straight down. Same thing with China. Like China's going to get smoked or should be getting smoked on this. Um but you know and so should Taiwan semi EWT what's Taiwan doing? Yeah. So like this is the kind of stuff you really want to look at. You know that this is the kind of stuff today you want to start really like I think you want to look at. See like if you start looking at from a larger frame perspective I think you're going to do better. So like instead of just saying name think about thematically. Like yesterday, people were saying, "Do we buy the UAE?" And I'm like, "I think you're early." But here we are, and now the UAE is going to be down in 3 days. You're going to be down what, 12%. You know, can the UAE bounce? Yeah, I mean, it can it can bounce. So, I I think that that's the I think like looking at the world that way makes a whole hell of a lot more sense. But you got to understand, man, like this can get freaking vicious and your your spreads today, like if you're trying to get out of stuff, what I would do is think about if you were a market maker and you're an option market maker today, what I would think about is they're going to find themselves in a position where they're hosed this morning on these kinds of gap downs, right? So, if you're trying to get out of something like if you're trying to get out of a minor like like um he just brought up here um I look at it from a different standpoint and I say like I put levels to of asks to get out there um where I know that they might grab it. So it might go to break even or 20 cents under break even, you know, from the previous close knowing that the market maker might just go give me everything and just take it all the way up. You know what I mean? That's how I view this. Um, so I don't really think that I don't really think about it that way. So, um, that's how I think about it. I should say it that way. So, I'm just going through this. Larry, you got to come down today, buddy. That's how I'm viewing it. Guys, I got to jump. I would just honor your stops and just let this settle down. And you don't have to be first here. And it can always get worse. I know people think that it can't, but it can always always get worse. I gotta go, guys. Let me just run through this real quick. You can't hear Larry today. All those names, bro, are going to get hit today. I don't do those diamond trades. I don't believe in it. Well, by the time you see a diamond, it's over, bro. I'll just go through this. Yeah, I like it. But they're heavily relying on getting gas and oil from other places. Um, I think you're finally getting a panic and it's a good thing, but you really want to watch it tighten up into the open and then go from there. But it can get worse, guys. Like, this can get a lot a lot worse. So, let's let's see what happens here. Um, for me, this is also about just like looking at it from a protection standpoint. So, we always want to think about it that way, too. Like, how much protection do we really need here on some of these trades? Um, you know, and then kind of go from there. But, yeah, this can always get always get worse. So, let's just uh let's see what happens here and then we'll go from there. All right, I gotta jump, guys. Have a good day. Make good choices.