Transcription
Pacifism has become part of Japan's identity. For eight decades, it's been enshrined in law. After World War II, defeated Japan had to renounce militarism and war. But Japan's first female prime minister is trying to transform the country. Japan is back.
So why is Japan boosting its defense spending? And what does the crumbling world order have to do with it? Picturesque nature and peace. That's what the Japanese island of Yonaguni is known for. Soon it will also be home to air defense missiles like these. Yonaguni belongs to an archipelago that stretches towards Japan's main islands. Japan sees it as part of a new front line and has been adding military assets on the islands like radar systems and air defense missiles. That's because the islands are here off the coast of China. They're a natural boundary between the East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean and control of these seas is highly contested. Yunaguni is just 110 km from Taiwan. You probably know China claims Taiwan as part of its territory. Chinese drills around Taiwan seem to be simulating a blockade of the island. Japan has long been cautious on the Taiwan issue. Enter Sai Takayichi, Japan's first female prime minister. She's known for her nationalist views. She's gone viral for her accessories and her unconventional moves. Takayichi is changing things up, including on Taiwan. She said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan's very survival, and that could mean a Japanese military response. An unusually tough stance for Japan that helped her party win a landslide election victory.
Japan is back.
There is an appetite for clarity and for a firmer defense position for Japan and that's something a decade or so ago that might have been a little bit more contested.
Takayichi is boosting Japan's military capabilities. The country has just deployed long range missiles and there are even discussions about Japan getting its own nuclear weapons. Takayichi is rushing through a rise in defense spending, doubling it to 2% of Japanese GDP. Because it has such a big economy, that would make Japan the third biggest defense spender in the world. So in terms of scale, this is a significant signal that Japan is investing in that hard power area.
This is Sheila Smith. She's an expert on Japanese foreign policy and the author of the book Japan Rearmed.
It wants to make sure it's sending a signal to its neighbors that they should be prepared for a Japanese response if there is aggression against Japan. But for Japan in the post-war period, they have largely said, you know, we're not going to invest in hard power, military power.
Japanese treachery. The change is a big deal because of Japan's brutal past. Japan had imperial ambitions. It conquered and colonized numerous territories, including in China.
Then Japan joined forces with Nazi Germany in World War II. In 1941, it launched a surprise attack in the Pacific, hitting the US fleet in Pearl Harbor. More than 2,000 Americans were killed, and the assault led the US to enter the war. Fighting between Japan and the US in Asia was bloody. Then in 1945, hundreds of thousands of Japanese were killed after the US dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The first and only wartime use of nuclear weapons. Japan surrendered and World War II was officially over.
Japan's war was an atrocious war. Of course, for the victims, but also from the aggressor side, it was horrible.
This is Kohici Nagano. He has written extensively about Japanese politics, history, and nationalism. So coming out of the war people felt that okay we didn't gain much of anything but uh and we lost a lot of things and we certainly lost our pride and uh our credibility uh but we are now moving ahead now as a pacifist country.
After the war the allied powers under US command demilitarized the country and wrote a pacifist clause into Japan's constitution. Article 9 renounces war though it does allow self-defense.
The Japanese have come to establish a rather strong postwar identity centered around on this idea that we are not going to be involved in a war.
Having a US security guarantee helped Japan hosts more US troops than any other country like at these bases. The post for Japanese security system has been kind of a compromise and a tension in between a rather sweeping uh pacifist article 9 on the one hand and the rather uh conflicting uh alliance with the United States.
The principle of pacifism is so ingrained that Japan's military is still called a self-defense force. It has around 250,000 active duty personnel but no conscription. And the design of the country's latest defense plan doesn't look super threatening either. Internationally, Japan has long advocated against nuclear weapons and for diplomacy rather than military force. The last time Japan's government made big changes to defense policy was under the late Shinszo Abbe, Takayichi's mentor. Those changes were met with mass protests, but polling shows that mood has been shifting. So, what makes it less controversial to push for a more aggressive security agenda? Now, let's go back to Japan's westernmost islands to find out. Right near Yonaguni are these uninhabited islands. They're basically rocks in the ocean, but they're contested. Japan administers them, but both China and Taiwan have historical claims to them, and they all have their own names for the islands. There are ongoing tensions between China and Japan here. In 2010, a Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese patrol ship and it turned into a row between the countries.
That was the first time that defense planners had to contend with the idea that maybe China and Japan would find themselves at odds.
And there's Taiwan, which China sees as its territory. Taiwan is very close to Japan. As we saw, anything that happens in and around Taiwan, even if it's not directed at Japan, will have the capacity to influence Japanese citizens and Japanese territory.
Remember those US bases? They guarantee Japanese security, but they're also part of a US military strategy to contain China and potentially block its access to the Pacific Ocean. US bases in Japan and the Philippines form the so-called first island chain along with Taiwan and are anchored by South Korea. So that means this whole region is part of a growing US China rivalry. If there is a major power competition or major power crisis between Beijing and the United States over Taiwan, the United States has significant military forces located on Japanese soil. That would then put everybody who is living in and around a United States military base. Those people would then be subjected to a Chinese attack.
These two Chinese aircraft carriers have been conducting drills in the Pacific Ocean. What you're finding now, however, is that the PLA is increasingly operating in the Western Pacific. So, not in those East China Sea or South China Sea bodies of water, but out in the Western Pacific. Now, is this all about attacking Japan? Probably not. But certainly the demonstration of the ability to project that far and to project now in ways that are different gives the the Japanese military some pause that they're going to have to think of their country not just as having something come from the west but having a 360 capability.
So Japan sees China as an increasing threat. Takayichi's unusually tough comments on Taiwan and China addressed that and that made Beijing mad. China took its pandas back from Tokyo, issued a travel warning to Chinese tourists and banned imports of Japanese seafood. And China isn't the only country Japan is concerned about. North Korea is right next door and has been regularly testing nuclear capable missiles and there's Russia with its war of aggression on Ukraine. All three countries have close ties and that's not great for Japan.
They live in a dangerous neighborhood and you certainly have three powers there in and around operating in and around Japan that that would give the Japanese a hard time should there be any kind of conflict in the region. So this is pretty pretty precarious when you think about it, especially because Japan is an island nation. It relies on the sea for almost all of its imports and Japan's oil mostly comes from the Middle East via the straight of Hormuz, crossing contested waterways near Taiwan. So, Japan needs stability on these shipping lanes and that stability depends on this guy, the US president.
And Takayichi seems to be mostly giving Donald Trump what he wants. Takayichi got that strategy from former Prime Minister Shinszo Abbe, who bonded with Trump over golf and sumo wrestling. Takayichi has already met with Donald Trump twice in the first months of her time in office. And she's bringing Trump deals, trade agreements worth billions of dollars. Japan has pledged to invest $550 billion in the US in return for relief from Trump's tariffs.
So yeah, big. It's a lot of money, but it really trying to say that we have a long-term relationship. Our economic engagement is part of our strategic engagement. I think the Japanese approach has been to make sure that there's the least amount of air between the two countries in the public statements and everything is possible.
And Trump has been putting pressure on allies to up military spending. NATO was broke and I said you're going to have to pay. So Takayichi's move to step up defense spending may also be to keep Trump happy.
I think in the strategic sense, Japan still prefers the alliance with the United States to any other strategic cooperation. So this is a Japan that is coming to terms slowly and uncomfortably to the era of major power competition.
But is the US still a reliable partner for Japan? The Trump administration says it's focused on the Western Hemisphere like in Venezuela. The most recent US national defense strategy didn't even mention Taiwan, which we saw is a key concern for Japan. And Trump keeps threatening to undermine the postw World War II order.
You cannot trust the United States. The United States today under Trump is the biggest security concern.
So that's another big reason why Japan's current security setup might be less reliable. Now Takayichi has set a new tone with her South Korean neighbor. It was only a few years ago that the countries got closer and expanded security cooperation. Talking to neighbors like South Korea is a big deal because of Japan's imperial history. Japan ruthlessly colonized the Korean Peninsula and forced women from Korea and all over the region into sexual slavery. And it also invaded the Philippines during World War II.
Now, Japan has sent combat units to take part in Philippines US military exercises. the first Japanese troops on Philippine soil since the Second World War. And Japan and South Korea have been holding regular military drills for several years now with the US because the US is part of all of these exercises. It still guarantees the security of all three countries, South Korea, the Philippines, and of course, Japan. Japan is putting in itself in a very vulnerable position with only Trump to rely upon as a safety valve, which is utterly horrifying when you think about it.
So, Japan is upping military spending and pacifism is not the priority anymore. But it's still Japan. It's the primary instrument of state craft for Japan. Still remains its diplomacy and its friends. For now, Japan probably couldn't hold its own in a tense neighborhood.