Transcription
Hello everybody and welcome into Commodity Culture, where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodity sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is March 23rd, 2026.
Disclaimer before we dive in. Nothing here is investment advice. Do your own due diligence.
And today's guest is the CEO of US Gold Mining, an exploration and development company focused on advancing the 100% owned Whistler gold copper project in Alaska. It's Tim Smith. Great to have you back on the show.
Hi Jesse, thanks so much for having me.
Well, I want to kick the conversation off by discussing a very timely topic. Of course, the war in Iran and the way that gold has reacted so far because a lot of people expected the metal to rise in the face of such massive geopolitical instability, growing conflict in the Middle East, and yet gold, along with silver, has been falling since the war began. Why do you think that is? And how do you expect gold to react if the conflict continues to drag on?
Yeah, that's right, Jesse. I mean, normally, yes, gold rises on geopolitical tension. Um, gold, of course, is a safe haven asset. Uh, yet gold is down, um, around 14% over the last month. And uh, you know, it's almost back where it started the year, which was around uh $4,450. Um, most of that decline was, was really just over the course of the past week. You know, probably week three heading into the the Iran uh uh conflict. Um, and of course, that conflict is dragging on. Uh, and I think really the timing, the trigger for for the timing and the the decline in the gold price was when the Fed announced that it was pausing on interest uh cut, um, uh, interest rate cuts, uh, early in uh March, sorry, middle of March. So, you know, while the root cause in response, uh, is in response to escalating Middle East tensions, uh, you know, the negative flip this time around, I think, is it's all about the energy uh crisis that the war is also bringing about. This Iran conflict and including the shutting down of the Hormuz Strait, uh, the missile strikes on the natural gas production that we saw just last week. You know, these things have sent energy prices soaring. Uh, has dashed hopes for uh, near-term interest rate cuts, um, and gold prices, of course, further pressured by uh, rising Treasury yields now, um, and a stronger dollar. And so I think what we're seeing is, is essentially profit-taking on bullion, uh, as investors are liquidating positions to offset losses elsewhere. Um, but I think, you know, longer term, stepping back, I I gold is still up well over 100% over the past two years. Uh, and and I think the long-term macro drivers, especially the the global diversification away from the US dollar, I think those things remain firmly intact and will will do so in the longer term.
Yeah, great assessment. Now, central bank gold buying also a big part of the story over the last couple of years. Now, according to the data from January this year, net purchases worldwide came in at 5 tons. This is around an 80% drop from the monthly average of 27 tons throughout 2025. Do you accept, do you expect gold buying to reaccelerate throughout the rest of the year? And and could you speculate for us on on why you think there's been less purchases so far in January?
Yeah, sure. I mean, I absolutely expect central banks to continue accumulating bullion, uh, especially over the longer term. I think the slowdown in January is more of a response to a rapid price shock, uh, rather than a shift in in policy or behavior. Gold started, you know, remember the start of the year, gold started at about $4,300 and it ended the month, uh, of January at $5,400. And when you see an $1,100, you know, dollar change, a delta, uh, across the span of a single month, just, you know, mind-blowing increase in gold in January, it it's completely natural for buyers to step back temporarily, uh, while prices stabilize. Um, so, you know, I think by the end of January, we did see gold stabilize somewhat around $5,000, plus or minus a couple hundred bucks on, you know, shorter-term trading. Um, and of course, with the exception of recent events tied to Iran. Um, but I don't expect January's pause, um, to reflect the longer-term trend.
Now, you spoke about it earlier, the Fed deciding to hold rates steady at the last FOMC meeting last week. I want to read a quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He said, in the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank is the first to be raising rates, citing inflationary concerns. Are these policy decisions acting as headwinds on the gold price in your view? You alluded to it a little bit earlier. Perhaps you could unpack it for us.
Yeah, sure. There's, you know, there's definitely a connection. When when the Fed Fed signaled an extended hold, uh, in mid-March, um, due to persistent inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, uh, in the Middle East, uh, you know, gold took an immediate hit, obviously. Uh, we're seeing that recently. And and the markets are now pricing in, um, a 2026, uh, uh, rate cut, maybe just one. I think they're they're predicting, uh, about a 50% uh, chance of even a hike, uh, in in 2026. Uh, and and so that ambiguity, uh, around where, uh, uh, those interest rates are going to be sitting, uh, is is absolutely a short-term headwind for gold. Um, but I think, you know, historically, gold remains the ultimate long-term store of value. Um, and the central banks know that. So, you know, I I believe the longer-term theme of the central banks accumulating bullion will continue and and, uh, you know, the precious metal will remain the universal long-term store of value that it has always been.
Now, mine gold production hit a record in 2025, according to the World Gold Council. Do you expect another big year of production here in 2026? And assuming we continue to see these high energy prices, what sort of impact could that have on the gold mining sector?
Yeah, I think we'll see it steady. Uh, you know, I mean, 2025 was was technically a record, but it was only about 1%, um, you know, year-over-year increase. Uh, you know, I I do expect continued production growth over time as the sector broadly gears up to increase production. Although, you know, mining is not really like other sectors where you can just flip a switch. It's a it's a long lead game. You you just, you know, you you can't just turn on more production. You you need to undertake pit, uh, pits, uh, pushbacks or underground development, uh, you know, major capital expansions to to upgrade your your process flow sheet. These things can take years, um, to permit and to build. Uh, we're also seeing grade profiles continuing to to uh decline globally. Uh, tier one discoveries are becoming rare. Uh, and, you know, furthermore, I think the industry is hyper-focused on capital discipline, which it needs to be, and even, you know, majors like Newmont are taking production dips in the short term to make fiscally disciplined, um, mind sequencing decisions. So, you know, with these high fuel, uh, prices squeezing margins and organic growth becoming, uh, difficult, um, I think, you know, the delta between costs and realized gold sales is is still healthy. Uh, but bringing new supply, uh, online is not any easier.
Well, let's talk about how US Gold Mining fits into the picture. It's been a while since I last had you on the show. So, for those new to the US Gold Mining story, could you provide an overview of the company?
Yeah, absolutely. So, we're a NASDAQ-listed company, ticker is USGO. Uh, we went public in 2023 and we had a a very singular focus, and that's the advancement of the 100% owned Whistler gold copper project located, uh, here in Alaska. Uh, it's a large gold copper porphyry system containing 5.4 million gold equivalent ounces indicated and another 5 million gold equivalent ounces inferred. Uh, and about three-quarters of the total value in the deposits is locked up in gold, with the rest largely in copper. Uh, and it's all about location. You know, we're we're here in a top-tier, uh, North American jurisdiction, Alaska.
Now, you released the results of your preliminary economic assessment at the Whistler gold copper project at the start of this month. Can you dive into the details for us and how they will inform your plans moving forward?
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, you know, the PEA was a major milestone for us. Um, headline numbers speak for themselves. An after-tax NPV, uh, of $2 billion, uh, and a 33% IRR, uh, and that's at consensus pricing of $3,200 gold and $450 copper. Um, we're outlining, uh, an initial 15-year mine life, producing around 200, uh, uh, just under $250,000 gold equivalent ounces, uh, per annum. Um, but the real standout, uh, is the the early mine plan and the quick payback because, uh, uh, by targeting a higher-grade starter pit in the first three years, uh, we can push that our peak production to to almost 350,000, uh, ounces per annum early on. Uh, and that drives our payback period down to just 2.1 years.
Is the ultimate goal here to go into production yourselves or continue to derisk the project, delineate resources further, and get acquired? And in either scenario, what does the roadmap to get there look like?
Yeah, sure. You know, as I mentioned, our mandate is simple. We we um, we just need to derisk the asset and increase, um, the net asset value per share. Uh, the work we need to do right now, um, whether it's, uh, build it ourselves or, uh, ultimately, uh, making it attractive, uh, to be acquired, is it's the same work. It's engineering, it's baseline studies, uh, permitting, uh, and undertaking more exploration to bring more resources, uh, on on, um, uh, in the shorter term, uh, uh, to fill out that that production profile and add to the longer-term, uh, mine life. Um, certainly the major producers, uh, you know, with the the struggles that they're having with organic growth, we know that they're actively looking, uh, to secure their long-term production profile. So a partnership or a buyout is always a possibility, and we're open to that, of course. Um, but our focus is entirely on advancing the project right now and just delivering, uh, the absolute best return on investment for shareholders.
And could you talk a little bit about the the situation when it comes to Alaska as a mining jurisdiction, a relationship with government, local communities? How favorable of a jurisdiction is it for a project like yours?
Yeah, I find it an extremely good place to work, Jesse. You know, we're located on state land. Uh, that's a little bit unique compared to some of the other, uh, projects where you might have a patchwork of different land ownership. Maybe there's, you know, federal, which could include forestry or BLM land. There might be some native land in and and in addition to state land. So, you know, that's that's not us. We're we're differentiated from that. We're just dealing with the state, a single regulator. It makes permitting simple. We got our exploration permit inside of 90 days. Uh, and furthermore, uh, you know, Alaska is a resource state. Uh, and they know that they need to build out infrastructure to support resource extraction over the longer term and ultimately grow the economy. So the state, uh, a few years back, pulled its checkbook out and and wrote an $8.5 million check to design a road that leads directly from, uh, um, Anchorage, uh, uh, all the way to what will become, uh, and future, the mine gate, uh, at Whistler. That's the West Susitna Access Road. This is a state-led Roads to Resources initiative. Uh, we're very excited to be able to partner with the state and and the various state agencies that are leading that project. Uh, uh, in fact, I'm in Alaska this week, planning to meet some of those agencies to get an update on progress with respect to, uh, their design and permitting.
Great. We'll have to keep up to date with that. Now let's talk about the company's current cash position. How much cash do you have? How much runway does that give you? And what are the plans to raise more capital as needed?
Sure. So we ended the year, uh, with just over $7 million in cash, and that funds our upcoming 2026 exploration program. Uh, we also have some warrants, uh, that are expiring at the end of April, 2026, and that could bring in additional working capital, uh, if the share price moves above the $13 strike price. Um, and then, you know, looking ahead, we will be incredibly disciplined. Uh, any future financing we do will have a strict, clear, uh, use of proceeds tied directly to, uh, studies, engineering studies, baseline surveys, uh, maybe accelerated, uh, exploration, etc. Uh, and and ultimately, uh, we're we're working strategically now to define, uh, how we want to move Whistler, uh, towards pre-feasibility as as expeditiously as possible.
And what are the main catalysts and news flow that investors can expect coming out of the company? Is the 2026 exploration, uh, program, is that the main thing people should be watching? And is there anything else that should be on people's radars?
Yeah, I think there's a lot to watch, and certainly the exploration coming up this summer is, is, is one of the main, uh, thrusts of the the work programs that we'll be undertaking this year. I think one of the key takeaways that we want people to remember is that our PEA is just a base case. Uh, Whistler isn't just a single deposit. There are two other, uh, deposits that that can be brought in, uh, in future, into future iterations of that mine design. And then, you know, the Whistler orbit and some of the other exploration targets at Island, Mountain, and Muddy Creek that we have, uh, you know, these are emerging as, as, as classic porphyry clusters, and they have potential for district-scale, uh, exploration expansion in terms of discovery, new discoveries, bringing, uh, new future resources and reserves, uh, online. Um, you know, we're all about building out a, a, a pipeline of targets that we can continue to advance, uh, uh, uh, to grow the value of the project. Um, so we're putting together a significant, uh, summer exploration program this coming summer, 2026, to test some of those high-priority targets in the Whistler orbit, uh, that sit outside of, uh, the existing resource areas. And we're excited about the potential. We've set the task for the exploration team to go and make a new discovery this year. So, very exciting. Uh, so keep an eye out, uh, in the coming weeks, um, for updates on our, our exploration plans, uh, and of course, the drill results that will follow.
And just to quickly touch on the copper aspect of your project, I'd love to get your overall thoughts on the current setup for copper, the the tailwinds you see driving it, and just, um, any thoughts you could provide as to the copper component of, uh, of your projects as well.
Yeah, the copper component, uh, in in the Whistler deposit, which is just one of those three deposits in the indicated category, we have just under a billion pounds of copper. So, it is a significant copper deposit in its own right, uh, at at the Whistler project. Um, it helps open doors. I think it it'll help with permitting, fast-tracking permitting. It puts us on that list of critical mineral projects. And of course, just last year, I think it was around October, uh, when the USGS and and the US Department of the Interior, uh, officially put copper and silver, actually, uh, uh, onto that list of critical minerals. So we're we're, uh, encouraged, uh, by the potential that having that copper, uh, in the system can can potentially help, uh, open some doors, uh, uh, help us, uh, uh, uh, avail the project of, of potential, uh, fast-tracking, uh, uh, towards permitting and potentially even, uh, some funding opportunities that, uh, sort of available, uh, out of, out of Washington these days. So it really does help, uh, it's an extra shot in the arm, I think, uh, uh, in in addition to obviously what is a very big gold system.
Is there anything that we haven't yet discussed? Anything you think that you maybe we should emphasize when it comes to potential shareholders of US Gold Mining?
Yeah, I think just, uh, so you know, the management are very experienced. Uh, you know, we're led by a group of, uh, uh, experienced veterans. Uh, we we all have around 30 years of experience. We've worked, uh, for the mid-tiers and the majors. We know the discipline, uh, required around building, uh, very, uh, good quality data sets to underpin your models, uh, which will help, uh, uh, ultimately with with the confidence of of moving forward, uh, with both our exploration, uh, uh, targeting definition, the execution on our exploration plans, the execution on our studies, uh, as we move into that sort of down that feasibility track to ultimately putting a Whistler on a clear line of sight through to development and and permitting.
Fantastic. Well, I'm going to put links in the description below to the US Gold Mining website as well as social media for people who want to dive deeper into the company. Tim, thank you so much for coming on as always. It's been a blast.
Thanks so much, Jesse.
Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.