Transcription
Trade deadlines are coming up, so it's really important for you to know how to value these wide receivers. I'm going to bucket them off by tiers as we always do, right?
S tier. I understand everybody in the comment section, they want me to rank Jackson Smith and Jigba as the wide receiver one. For me, I'm going to put Puka Nua there still. I mean, if we're looking at Puka, if we're going to go ahead and just account for the games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, you are seeing him score 23, 27, 23, 36, 24 and a half fantasy points. Obviously, this past week against the Ners, it is an incredible. He scores 17 and a half, but 17.5 is the absolute floor that you're going to get. He's averaging 9.9 targets per game and he's in an offense that's probably going to finish as the number one offense in the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and potentially there's the Dvonte Adams injury to be on the lookout for.
Now, moving over to JSN, I completely understand the bull case for him to be the wide receiver one. We've had five straight weeks where he's at least scored 20 fantasy points. And at the same time, he's done this with target volume, not necessarily just touchdown efficiency. Like realistically, if you're going to take a look at this, he's actually only had five touchdowns off of 85 targets. So, there's a very real possibility in which JSN goes through and JSN actually starts scoring touchdowns at a higher clip given his target volume.
And then going over and looking at Jamar Chase, I wouldn't fault you if you wanted to put Jamar at wide receiver one because ever since you had Flaco come over against the Green Bay Packers, Jamar had 25, 38, 21, and 17 fantasy points. And the target volume is insane. He's averaging about 12 targets per game right now, which is higher than any other wide receiver in the league.
A tier. This going to also be a trio of wide receivers with Ammon Ross St. Brown leading us off. Now, I will obviously talk about Jameson Williams a little bit later, but with St. Brown, I know it's boring, but you are just guaranteed to get a solid week every single time he steps on the field. You're never getting let down. You're never getting a game in which he scores four fantasy points. He's averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game and 9.1 targets. It's a great offense and he's done this for years. You know exactly what you're getting.
Going over and looking at CD Lamb. Lamb now another week removed from this injury. Should be 100% coming out of the buy. Over the past three weeks, he's ramped up his target volume every week going from 8 to 10 to 12. And with this Dallas Cowboys defense, while I know they go out there and trade for a defensive lineman and I'm not going to sit here and try to pretend like that, I'm some defensive expert and I know exactly how this is going to impact their defense. It probably makes a little bit better, but it goes from being the worst defense in the league to the second worst, third worst, for it's still a horrible defense. The Cowboys are going to have to throw the ball a ton in the second half and that's going to provide a lot of value for Lamb.
Going over and looking at Rasheed Rice. Um, with Rice, he scored three touchdowns in the first three games that he's been back this season. And so far this year, he's averaging about 22 and a half points per game, which would tie him with Puka Nua for the top spot in fantasy. But with Rice, you haven't had that much target volume in comparison to the other elite level players. He's actually seen fewer targets per game than any other wide receiver that we've discussed so far. And it's a very small sample, so it'd be tough for me to go out there and put them up with the other guys.
Our B tier is going to be three wide receivers. We're gonna have Drake London. Um, London averaging over 10 targets per game. London this past week against the Indianapolis Colts looked very good, right? You have the receiving touchdown coming off a game where he had three receiving touchdowns. Back-to-back games with over 100 receiving yards. Quarterback play doesn't look great, but London's market share numbers are just absolutely insane where he's averaging a third of the targets in Atlanta right now.
I'm going over and looking at Ibuka. Ibuka's market share numbers are going up significantly coming out of the buy. He just had 13 targets, went for over a 100 receiving yards, now fully removed from that hamstring injury. And it does seem like Godwin's not really going to make an impact this season. We don't even know if he's going to be back either.
And then lastly, we are going to have Justin Jefferson. Now, if y'all remember, I got so much heat for keeping Jamar Chase as a top 10 wide receiver in our rest of season rankings early in the year whenever he had three games out of four with under 10 points scored. People were screaming at us in the comment section that we had to rank Jamar lower. And obviously, Jamar maybe gets saved with Joe Flaco getting traded over to Cincy. I mean, honestly, is gonna be a top 10 wide receiver regardless he's Jamar Chase. And my take with Justin Jefferson is while it looks bad in Minnesota right now, while JJ McCarthy aka nine looks like he may not be the dude, it is still Justin Jefferson. So, I would be very hard-pressed to move him outside of the top 10 in rankings, especially when he's averaging over nine targets per game. So, I'm going to give Justin Jefferson the benefit of the doubt. Obviously, this has been the worst season of his NFL career so far, but I'm going to keep him inside the top 10.
Now, moving over to our next thing, we are going to have Devonte Adams. Adams, it will be very important to monitor if this back injury is anything. My expectations right now with these rankings are that Devonte Adams is just a-ok. Okay, 100% good to go this next week. If the injury turns out to be anything serious, we will update our rankings later on and Adams will obviously move down.
Now, Nico Collins is the wide receiver one for my own fantasy football team. This is back-to-back games for Nico where he's had double-digit targets with 11 targets against Denver, 15 targets this past week. The touchdown efficiency has been horrendous where we've seen 72 targets and only three total touchdowns from Nico this year. So, I'm really hoping that we see the touchdowns come soon. But keep in mind, you go back and you look at Nico Collins in 2024 and 2023, he was averaging over 17 points per game in both those seasons. I think that's still in the range of outcomes for him.
Um, George Pickens will be our next name with Pickins. Averaging about 18 points per contest. Obviously, a lot of this came in those games in which you had no CD Lamb, though. So, once Lamb is back, expectations are volume's going to fall.
Um, Lad McConkey averaging about eight targets a game. Um, and at the same time, he's looked pretty damn good as of late. He just dropped 20 points on my head against the Pittsburgh Steelers this past week, going over 100 receiving yards. And the bump that you may be getting with Lad right now is this Gadston injury, which is just going to be able to funnel more targets over to the receivers.
Now, moving to Rome. Rome has a big-time bounceback this past week against the New York Giants. Has himself 10 targets. It does look like Caleb Williams is actually having a decent amount of passing volume, a decent amount of drop backs in this offense. Rome gets back to scoring the touchdown and does look to be the alpha wide receiver one with DJ Moore getting phased out.
Chris Ave averaging about nine and a half targets per game right now. Tyler Shuck was able to go and get him the touchdown this week and Ave had the highlight grab on the sideline, but realistically I still think this going to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
Michael Pitman Jr. will be our next wide receiver. We had Pitman as a sell-high candidate earlier in the year just because you look at the target volume. He's only averaging seven targets per game which is much fewer than any other wide receiver we've talked about so far this video. He's been living off touchdown volume which is difficult to project going into the future but he's still averaging 15 points per game and he's in a great offense.
Then Z Flowers will be our next wide receiver. Um I I don't know how long we have to rank him this high. Realistically, there's a real shot that AJ Brown and or Devontae Smith flip him in the rankings after tonight's game. I'm recording this before the Eagles Packers game. I can tell you what the expectations are for these wide receivers tonight on Underdog Fantasy. They currently have AJ Brown, higher lower 57 and a half receiving yards, higher lower 10.75 fantasy points. And they currently have Devontae Smith, higher lower 52 and a half receiving yards. And Devontae Smith higher lower 9.95 fantasy points for me. I'm kind of hoping the lowers hit because I really need Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley plus Dallas to have themselves today. But obviously if you want to check out any of those projections go higher or lower, you can find that link in the description as well as the comment section to Underdog Fantasy. If you sign up to underdog with code flock, you will get a $100 added to your account after you play your first five and you'll get a gimme Jaylen Hurts pick higher lower half a total yard for tonight's game. Underdog Fantasy is available in almost every single state and you can find that link in the description and comment section.
Now Jaylen Waddle will be our next wide receiver with Waddle. He's the wide receiver two on my own fantasy team. I am hoping that he can continue to repeat what he just did this past week. Target volume has looked good, right, where he's averaging six and a half targets per game. And it's definitely been very consistent. We haven't had a single game from him this year where he's had double-digit targets, but also at the same time, he could pretty much pencil in six targets at the very minimum. But most weeks, the Miami Dolphins aren't going to be scoring 30 points. So, I do think you have to temper expectations just a bit.
And going over to T. Higgins, with T. Higgins, he has scored four touchdowns over the past three weeks. But at the same time, if we're looking at the market share numbers, he has fallen to only 17 and a half percent of the Cincinnati Bengals targets, which is actually the lowest mark that he has seen his entire NFL career. You do have Flacco really just locking on to Jamar Chase and hitting Jamar over and over and over again.
Now, moving over to our E tier wide receivers, this is a massive tier of players because I realistically don't really know how to rank them. We got Debo Samuel currently averaging 13 and a half points per game. Um, we got word on Sunday morning that Jalen Daniels was actually not going to hit the IR and there's a realistic chance that you can get Jalen Daniels back this season, but also there's a chance Terry comes back and steals some targets.
Marvin Harrison, I know that people like to say that I'm a Marvin Harrison Jr. hater. I think I'm a Marvin Harrison Jr. realist where the dude's currently sitting here and he's averaging 12 and a half fantasy points per game. Like if we're looking at his overall numbers from his rookie season to his second year, like the target share numbers are really concerning where his rookie season he was at 22.2%. Now he's at 19.2%. And I'm not that excited about Jacobe Brassette.
Um, T.J. Hockenson will be our next name averaging about 7.7 targets per game. One of the highest marks in this entire tier. And you'd assume the rookie gets better as time goes on, but the holdup is he plays with Bryce Young.
Um, DK Metcalf will be our next wide receiver. DK Metcalf currently averaging 12 and a half fantasy points per game. Um, I'm starting DK Metcalf every single week and I'm just losing my mind every single week. Literally my balding is getting worse because I have to watch DK Metcalf in my lineup where it's just if he scores a touchdown it's fine. If he doesn't score a touchdown, we're absolutely screwed because he only averages like six targets a game.
Then Stefon Diggs is a wide receiver I traded away. And it looks like Stefon Diggs is in a pretty good spot at this point with the Kahan Booty injury where Diggs has actually scored a touchdown in three weeks straight now. Scored a touchdown in week eight, scored a touchdown in week nine, scored a touchdown in week 10. He just had actually eight targets, which is the second most that he's had of any game this year, only besides the Buffalo Bills game. But hell, Stefon Diggs does get to play against the Buffalo Bills in week 15.
Um, Romeo Doubs will be the next name with Doubs. Um, right now you have Matthew Stafford banged up, you have Jayden Reed banged up, you have Tucker Kraft out for the season. So, the projections look good. Like, he actually projects for more yards than Ivan Smith in tonight's game. I think you can be realistically excited about him in the short term, but long term if the wide receivers get healthier in Green Bay, targets may go down slightly.
Um, Jordan Addison will be our next player. Addison averaging seven and a half targets per game. But again, now that we have JJ McCarthy under center, and it doesn't really look like Justin Jefferson's that exciting of a play, it's hard to get there if we are going to be talking about freaking Jordan.
Now, Garrett Wilson is a wide receiver that's extremely difficult to rank because if we are going to be looking at Wilson, um he's coming off the goose egg. Not only is he coming off the goose egg, but at the same time, he just reinjured the same knee that he had problems with previously. And for that reason, um I just feel like we got to nuke him in the rankings. And obviously, we'll move him up if the knee injury turns out to be nothing. We'll move him down if this knee injury is very serious. But I'll just keep you posted on vlogfantasy.com. And obviously if you're subscribed to the channel, you'll see the updates in the live streams.
Um, going over to Courtland Sutton. Sutton got nuked in our rankings this past week because I'm done with it. Like Troy Franklin continues to dominate the target share. If we're looking at Sutton over the past like five games, he is sitting here averaging about 10 points per game. We've seen one game with 20 or more fantasy points from Courtland Sutton and that was back in week three of the season. Yeah, tough to get there with Sutton.
Moving over to Xavier Worthy. Xavier Worthy currently averaging nine fantasy points a game. Rasheed Rice is just taking all the volume. Like I may end up having to move Quentin Johnston ahead of Xavier Worthy dependent on the information that we get with the Gadston injury. But if Gadston's going to miss time, then all of a sudden Quentin Johnston is much more exciting, which honestly kind of helps my basketball teams.
Um, obviously we nuked Brian Thomas Jr. the rankings. Brian Thomas Jr. is averaging 10 and a half fantasy points per game right now. He is averaging fewer fantasy points per game than any wide receiver that we have talked about in this video so far other than Xavier Worthy. So, I know maybe it seems like we are quote unquote too low on him, but if anything, we're giving him a big benefit of the doubt in comparison to what the actual production had been this season. And at the same time, he's dealing with that high ankle sprain. He didn't practice at all this past week.
Then, moving over to Wandale Robinson. Um, Wandale, it's going to be dependent on if you have Jackson Dart or not here in the short term and how excited you are, but he's averaging almost eight targets a game. And Dart looks to be a great quarterback.
Um, Jameson Williams I know is a wide receiver that so many people are excited about now because he's had back-to-back good weeks. Like the live stream that we had on Sunday night, everybody was coming out here and getting excited about Jamo. Here's the thing. The dude's averaging 4.8 targets per game this season. There hasn't been a single wide receiver that we have talked about in this video. And there will not be a single wide receiver that we talk about in this video outside of Tez Johnson at the very end that has averaged fewer targets per game than Jameson Williams. He's not a target volume player. You're going to get these random spike weeks where he scores a touchdown. He looks good, but if they're not there, it's going to be ugly as hell.
Moving over to Troy Franklin. Um, Franklin actually is seeing a ton of target volume, but at the same time is been horribly inefficient as well where his current yards per target has him sitting at 5.8, one of the lowest marks in the NFL, but he's scoring touchdowns and he's drawing a ton of targets.
Um, Keenan Allen is just getting phased out in Los Angeles. He got the record this past week for most receptions ever as a Los Angeles Charger, which is super cool. Um, but also at the same time, we can see that over the past seven weeks, he's had one game with 11 or more fantasy points, the volume is just gone completely. And even with Gadston leaving, I think that benefits Quentin Johnson more than it does Keenan.
Um, Ricky Pearsall, we'll see if he can practice this week. We'll see if he can come back. But I mean, clearly Shanahan just loves to lie to us regarding these injuries where Pearsall has now missed a total of six games and they acted like it wasn't even a consideration ever put him on the IR.
Um, Kush Shakir will be our next wide receiver. Josh Allen had 40 pass attempts this past week and Kush Shakir had 12.8 fantasy points. This is a wide receiver that has never I mean he's played four seasons with Josh Allen and he has never scored more than 21 fantasy points. The ceiling is just severely capped.
Alec Pierce the ceiling's pretty damn big and at the same time he's running a route on almost every single Daniel Jones dropback. The volume's been consistent where he's at at least 60 receiving yards over the past four weeks. Like Alec Pierce steaming up in a big time way. This is a wide receiver that could realistically jump up to E tier with one more solid performance.
Um, Jauan Jennings for the time being is the wide receiver one in San Francisco. Um, if you don't count the tight end, if you don't count the running back and also Ricky Pearsall may end up coming back in, right? So we do have to be real with Jennings.
Jacobe Meyers, it's tough to take anything away from his first game ever as a Jacksonville Jaguar.
Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, no idea when and if they come back.
DJ Moore was a clear sell-high candidate after the big performance against Cincy. He's yet to have a game with more than seven targets this year. He's had I mean, what one game with more than six targets and it was seven. So, I don't see how you could ever get him in your starting lineup with confidence.
And then our last tier, we'll have Trey Tucker, garbage offense, big play upside. We'll have Travis Hunter, who could possibly be back for the fantasy playoffs. We have Parker Washington, who would be interesting if Jacobe Myers didn't get traded there. We have Tez Johnson, who's interesting until Godwin or Bucky come back. And then we have Brandon where God knows if we ever see him play football.
But I think that's all I got for y'all. Again, I really appreciate you and hope I was able to help you out in some way with this. And of course, if you wanted to check out any of those underdog projections, the links in the description, the links in the comment section, code flock will get you a $100 added to your account after you play your first five. Plus, you'll be getting free questions that you can ask me in the live streams that I'm live streaming every single night until Christmas. And a gimme pick Jaylen Hurts higher, lower half a total yard for the Monday night game. But I really appreciate you and really hope we get to see you out in the live stream later.