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If the price of gold really reaches that point, would we dare to buy it? >> That's the peak of the Fed's recognition of rising interest rates. That might be a Golden Opportunity for buying gold. But it hasn't arrived yet, has it, Khun Poon? >> As of today, the market is gradually changing its perspective. The gradual PR out of interest rate hikes, step by step, will it break through 4,000? Conversely, if we look at the worst-case scenario, let's say two hikes, right? It would multiply by four, going down another 300 dollars. It would return to the level I remember, around 3,500-3,600. It seemed to have been a support level for a while. It should be quite dense in that area. The point at 3,500 is where it broke out. So, when gold falls, it will fall to the point where it previously broke out. When it falls sharply, establishing a base will take a long time. Establishing a base for gold, before a major rally, takes at least half a year. Because it fell so much, it needs a long time to establish a base. It's just a matter of whether it will use 4,000 or 3,500 as a base. From the perspective of Real Yield, it's still a factor that doesn't help gold rise. The story, the fundamentals, are not overall. Real Yield will gradually increase. The risk of Real Yield increasing, I think in the very short term, must be said that it exists. It might even last until the Fed meeting in September. Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the biggest gold seminar in Thailand, is now available for rerun viewing. >> Most people trade gold, 95%. >> Why are they losing money? >> A crisis period is the best time for you to convert cash into assets that are decreasing in value. >> You can watch the full replay of all main stations. Follow more details on Zip Event. Real Yield is the game-changer, the turning point for gold. Because we have to compare, if the yield on bonds is good, why would we buy gold? This is what the market will be waiting for. Will Real Yield have a chance to rise, or what is its future direction, Khun Poo? >> Yes, as Khun Kan mentioned, right now, it depends on which inflation figure we use to offset the nominal figure. For example, if we use core inflation, core inflation has started to slow down recently. Therefore, from the perspective of Real Yield, it's still a factor that doesn't help gold rise. I think, as Khun Kan said, it's not rising due to the story, the fundamentals. So, it's not a theme where it's rising due to fundamental stories. And the risk of it adjusting upwards further will depend on, for example, the inflation figures. If they come out and are still similar, but the market starts to fear, fear due to the situation where signs are seen that the Fed might be serious about raising interest rates. For example, even if inflation doesn't accelerate much, but the market starts to worry, "Will the Fed ultimately have to raise interest rates?" This will start to be reflected in the nominal figures, which will gradually increase. >> It might increase due to the issue of term premium, as you mentioned earlier. It might rise first. Overall, Real Yield will gradually increase. Therefore, the risk of Real Yield increasing, I think in the very short term, must be said that it exists. It might even last until the Fed meeting in September. Because from today until the Fed meeting in September, it's a little over a month, a month and a half, right? We will see about two more inflation figures. That is, the inflation for July, and the inflation for August. And along the way, the situation is still uncertain, right? So, there will be a risk that, suddenly, the market will start PR-ing the Fed's interest rate hikes more. This will be a factor that will return to pressure gold through the Real Yield aspect. Therefore, in summary, the risk of Real Yield increasing >> Does it exist? I think it does. >> If it returns to the theme like Khun Kan mentioned, like in the past cycle, when the Fed kept raising interest rates, and then at a certain point, the golden opportunity for gold arrived. That is, the cycle of interest rate hikes ended. Like this. Then it will be the point where >> If you invest in gold, will it be low risk? >> This would be similar to if, for example, >> At a point where the market is very afraid of the Fed's hikes, thinking the Fed has to hike three times. I think >> There shouldn't be a fourth time. If there's a fourth time, it's unlikely. >> Suppose the market starts looking at three hikes. I think that will be the point where, even if the gold price dips, it will be a point where I think the price has already absorbed these issues to a considerable extent. It might be an interesting point. From a fundamental perspective, the Fed's interest rate hikes themselves have a chance to be recognized. Whether the gold price will actually rise or not is another matter. But it's something that has been recognized. >> Yes, the peak of the Fed's recognition of rising interest rates. That might be a Golden Opportunity for buying gold. But it hasn't arrived yet, has it, Khun Poon? So, maybe not yet. Because I think it's almost, it's almost like Khun Poon said, last night there was a moment where the market was looking at about 80% for two hikes. It can go up further. Suppose we imagine a different scenario from what happened today, that the market keeps going, right? We have roughly calculated the numbers, Khun Poo, Khun Kan. Every time the market's view changes that the Fed has a 50% chance of raising interest rates, or 0.5 times. Let's use the number of times, it's easier. 0.5 times will pressure the gold price by about 2%. Conversely, if the market PRs out, it will help the gold price by 2%. If I calculate roughly, that's about 80 dollars. If we take a round number, 80 dollars, it's possible. Therefore, we will get a number close to what Khun Kan said. Suppose, as of today, suppose the market gradually changes its view on interest rates. The interest rate hikes are gradually PR-ed out, step by step. Will it break through 4,200? It has a chance. From today, around 4,000 something, if the market PRs out about 50%, or 0.5 times, and it disappears, then gold rises. Or conversely, if we look at the worst-case scenario, let's say two times, right? Two times, round numbers. Two times, it will multiply by four, going down another 300, 300 dollars. It would return to the level we discussed before, Khun Poo. >> It's a previous support zone, isn't it? Perhaps to add from a technical perspective. I remember around 3,500-3,600, it seemed to have been a support level for a while. >> Yes, it should be quite dense in that area. It's an interesting point. If the price of gold really reaches that point, would we dare to buy it? >> Yes, interesting numbers. Khun Poon sees the potential downside, around 3,500, 3,600, 3,700. But if it's priced out, 4,200 might be broken through. Now, let's look at the technical side precisely, Khun Kan. If the range you mentioned, Khun Poon, looking at the technicals, where is the downside? How much is the upside for gold now? >> Yes, I'll try to show you on the chart again. >> Yes. >> Yes. The point at 3,500 that Khun Poon recommended earlier is where it broke out. So, this is the point. >> Yes, this area. >> So, here. This is the point where it broke out. So, it's the point where, normally, when gold falls, it will fall to >> It will fall to the point where it previously broke out, approximately. Like now, why is it around here? Because it's the point where it started to rise initially. So, it's here first. You can see. It's easy to play like this. It's quite easy to see. This is the point where it broke out. Broke out, meaning it was stuck. If we zoom in, it was stuck many times back then. It was stuck, and stuck again. For almost half a year. And then it broke out. It was stuck at 3,500 and then broke to over 5,000. Now, it has become a major support level. This point. So, I must say it's a major support level here. >> We might look at it in conjunction with >> Technical signals, like the RSI being oversold. Because gold, if it falls to oversold daily, and falls below 30%, it will always rebound. So, every time it falls, it's good. This is a simple way to look at it. It's a point we target. If it's around here, don't be afraid. If it falls, and there's more bad news, it's even more attractive to buy. Because the selling pressure should have lessened. If it falls to this point, it's interesting. >> Yes, but if it falls to this point, it means it has fallen to the starting point of this entire major rally? >> When it falls to this point, normally, establishing a base will take time. When it falls sharply, establishing a base will take a long time. Establishing a base for gold, before a major rally, takes at least half a year, every time. >> Yes. >> So, it takes a long time to establish a base. Like now, I still think it can't go up much. Because it fell so much, it needs a long time to establish a base. It's just a matter of whether it will use 4,000 or 3,500 as a base. There's a base formation point right now. The news isn't strong enough to pressure it much. So, it's establishing a base at 3,500 first. >> Yes. >> No one dares to sell. I myself am a trader, and I wouldn't dare to sell here. Seeing indicators like this, seeing buying pressure, it means selling doesn't work. Selling doesn't really work. >> We have to quickly cover shorts, which stops the strong selling. We wait and see, wait for the market. So, this point is a base for 4,000 first. If there's strong news and it falls to 3,500, if it can establish a base at 3,500, then we can buy again. I think the main points for this year might be just these two points. It's likely to be just these two points. >> Yes. >> And if we look at two scenarios, Khun Kan? If it establishes a base at 4,000. >> Yes. >> How far can it go? But if it falls below 4,000, and can't hold, and goes to establish a new base at 3,500, what's the upside? >> The upside for 4,000, I think, as we saw earlier, there's 4,500. 4,000, 4,200 is definitely a major resistance. >> Yes. >> And if it goes further, it's around 4,500-4,600. Because it's the high point of several past rallies. 4,500-4,600 will be resistance levels. 4,000 is a major support. Correction, 4,200 must be passed first. If anyone doesn't want to buy now, is afraid of something, wait until it passes 4,200 and then follow. Simply put. Then you'll see buying pressure following. >> Yes, we can play there. And near 4,000, a support level, right? If it breaks, if it falls below 3,000 something, meaning it falls below 4,000. To find a stop loss, it can end. So, if it breaks below 4,000, below 3,900. >> Yes. >> It's okay. In case there's a slight dip, it can be a stop loss point. And then wait again. If it establishes a new base at 3,500, then buy again. This is a major support point. As for rising to 5,000, I don't think so yet. I still think the same. Not yet. >> Yes, but last time, it started at 3,500 and went up to 5,600. What's different this time, Khun Kan? What's different, I think the news about interest rates must end first. I think it must end first. If it's still looming, there will likely still be problems. From my perspective, let's also consider the fundamentals. Right now, gold is slowing down. Normally, we see a lot of ETF inflows from central banks, right? Now, it has started to increase. For the first half of the year, the latest report just came out today from the World Gold Council. ETF inflows have increased slightly for the first half of the year. It's not negative. Even though the price has fallen a lot, the actual inflows are positive. It means they are still buying. Gold is still being bought, even though the price has fallen a lot. As for central banks, soon Khun Gita will see adjustments. Central banks, according to the World Gold Council, have indicated that it's difficult to track them now. So, it feels like they are buying less. Central banks themselves are buying less. This might start to be seen soon. There will likely be news about why they are buying so much less. But because they are buying a lot of commercial banks, their own banks, but commercial banks, that are buying a lot of gold. >> Let's say, overall, it hasn't fallen. Overall gold holdings are around 3,000-4,000 tons for the whole year, it remains the same. Production is also the same. It cannot produce more than this. So, production plus recycling is about 4,000 tons per year. This means it's still the same. Production is the same. So, it's stable. So, everything is stable. Therefore, regarding gold supply, don't worry. Everything is normal. >> But, but right now, looking only at the news, I give weight to interest rates. I give all the weight to interest rates. How much will it absorb? What's the trend? If it falls, it will go down to 3,500. If it doesn't fall, it will go up, but not past 5,000, approximately. And it will take a long time to establish a base, many months, until everything is over. Then it will go up. 6,000, 7,000, we'll talk about that later. >> We'll talk about that next year, Khun Kan? >> I think a new high will be next year. We have to finish this matter first. >> Okay, clear. In terms of technicals combined with fundamentals and news. To conclude with Khun Poon, in terms of portfolio allocation, given this interest rate context, this dollar, this bond yield, what advice do you have for allocating gold in the portfolio now? >> Yes, Khun Ta. We will use the view from Krungthai CEO that gold is an asset that can still help diversify portfolio volatility quite well. It might have lost some of its ability recently because it was correlated with assets due to the interest rate theme. But overall, if we hold it for the long term, we still recommend that clients have at least 5% to 10% in their portfolio. As Khun Kan said, it can rise when the interest rate theme starts to change. Like what we discussed, our base case is that the Fed will start cutting interest rates, which is likely to be a picture for next year. Therefore, before the market starts looking at this view, I think it might be late this year or even early next year. So, for gold to rise beautifully, I think we have to wait. But to ask about its function in diversifying risk and reducing portfolio volatility, it's still possible in the period after September. Why? Because we want the Fed's interest rate theme to not be about raising interest rates, which will pressure gold and make it correlated with risky assets. So, if after the September meeting, we can be more confident that gold will return to its role in diversifying risk well, then we should have it. Therefore, in our base case, I think clients can gradually add gold. As for other assets, Khun Gita, I must say that stocks are still overweight, but it's about market selection. We will focus on the US and Japan. But in the US, will we invest in Big Caps or just small caps? No. We will start to diversify risk away from these groups. So, it might be a theme that follows the growth of AI. We try to invest across the supply chain. What we see as still having value are things like Power Battle Next. The Power Battle Next theme, where we see power grids and the like still growing well, or that can meet these needs. As for futures, they are still okay, but I think we should try to avoid those with high volatility for now, like the SKIC or Samsung groups. But the advantage is, as Khun Kan mentioned earlier about gold's technicals, it's also about positioning. I think these groups have been sold off, margin called to a considerable extent. Therefore, the market positioning in these groups will not be as tight as before. This means the chance of seeing strong corrections will start to lessen. This is a good point, and in a way, it's also good for gold. Because recently, we found that gold has had a relatively high correlation with these simulator groups. >> It might be about portfolio adjustments, position adjustments. If you are sold off, you have to reduce the overall portfolio. Gold is also affected. When these are sold off a lot, it will be affected more. I think it will decrease because the cut or people's positions have disappeared a lot. So, gold is saved a bit. Therefore, this is our view. We still hold stocks, but not the big groups we are familiar with. As for bonds, Khun Ta, I must say they are neutral. Because the interest rate issue still exists. But we will select markets, for example, the US side. So, long-term bonds are considered because yields have risen a lot. Or in the UK, bonds have also risen a lot. Can we buy bonds in our country? Yes, we can. 10-year bonds above 2% are considered buyable. But don't expect returns as good as last year. It's not that cycle where we see bond prices falling and good returns. We will only get high carry. If we see bonds with falling prices, I think one, the base case is to wait until early next year when the market starts looking at interest rate cuts by major central banks. Or two, as we discussed earlier, let it go to the extreme. The market fears interest rate hikes to the extreme, and there might be actual rate hikes. That's when bonds will likely peak and start to fall. Okay, it's complete. Both the view on gold and other assets recommended by Khun Poon. Today, thank you both very much. Thank you, Khun Kan. Thank you, Khun Poon. Thank you. Goodbye. Goodbye. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminar access from PRP [Music] and Team Business Tomorrow. Please subscribe.