Transcription
What's happening here right now? Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Iran. Is having an impact in the Middle East and beyond. Oh my God.
To understand why so many countries are affected by the US-Israel war with Iran, we need to look at some maps. The first thing you need to know about Iran is that it's enormous. It's bigger than France, Germany and Spain combined. And 90 million people live there. Because it's so big, it links together huge parts of Asia and the Middle East. Iran has always been seen as a kind of gateway to the east and from the east as a gateway to the west.
In the south is the Persian Gulf, one of the most important waterways for oil supplies, as well as agricultural trade and general supplies. Iran and seven other countries border the Gulf, and the relationships have often been strained. Iran doesn't really have many friends in the neighbourhood. The relationship between Iran and the rest of the Gulf states has been very tense ever since the revolution started in 1979. The revolution changed Iran completely. The religious leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile and established an Islamic republic. It was a turning point, and not just for Iran's relationship with its neighbours in the Gulf, but also with the US and its closest ally in the region, Israel. They became arch-enemies.
Iran's leaders have consistently rejected the legitimacy of the state of Israel and say the US is its greatest enemy. Israel and the US oppose Iran's nuclear programme because they say Iran has been trying to make a nuclear bomb. The Iranian government has repeatedly said its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and denies that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.
So let's look at that map again. The US has a military presence in all these countries across the Middle East. And here's Israel. It's only about 1000km from Iran at its closest point. They're all within striking distance of Iran's missiles. Iran has quite an impressive missile stockpile. They have quite a range of missiles that are able to travel various distances from a few hundred kilometres to a few thousand kilometres. It also has quite an impressive drone technology. They have utilised in recent in the recent conflict.
Iran's defense strategy isn't just missiles and drones. Since the revolution, Iran has been seeking to export its ideology. Through the years, it has expanded its influence in the region by supporting a network of well-armed militias, collectively called the Axis of Resistance. Iran has built a forward defense mechanism by building out these relationships with these groups. Over time this included Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, as well as groups in Iraq and the former Syrian regime. Always there was always this underlying logic that Israel would not carry out systematic long term strikes against Iran, simply because that would trigger Hezbollah and Hezbollah with 100000 rockets, would bear down on Israel. But since the war in Gaza, Israel has weakened many of these groups. So that's what the relationships in the region looked like at the beginning of 2026. And then this happened. A short time ago.
The United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. The US and Israel hit sites across Iran and killed the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian officials said a US strike also hit a school, killing more than 153 people, including many children. The US military said it was looking into reports of the incident. Iran called the US Israeli attacks unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate. The Secretary-General of the UN condemned the military escalation. We are witnessing a grave threat to international peace and security.
Iran has retaliated by striking Israel and also other countries in the Middle East, where the US has a presence. And it's not just hitting military targets. Luxury hotels, shopping malls, airports, oil installations and apartment buildings have also been damaged. They want to hit the key infrastructure in the Gulf Arab states. They want to hurt the potential tourist industry that those states are developing, and hurt confidence of investors that are being attracted into the region. From a strategic point of view, Iran was probably trying to use this as a way to pressure the Gulf countries to then pressure the US to stop bombing Iran. Iran has carried out limited retaliatory strikes on US bases in Gulf countries in the past, but nothing on this scale has been seen before. And fighting has spread beyond the Gulf countries, for example, Israel's military and Hezbollah, the militia that Iran has been supporting for decades, are fighting in Lebanon and far outside the conflict zone in the Indian Ocean. A US submarine torpedoed an Iranian warship, killing at least 80 people.
And there's another way Iran has responded to the strikes in this bit of water. This is the Strait of Hormuz. It's what is called a choke point. It's a narrow strategic route for global trade that is used 24/7. This bit here is just 39km wide. This shipping route is how we get 20% of the world's oil and gas, as well as 30% of urea. That helps us make fertilizer to grow food. Iran is using its military to disrupt traffic through the strait, which is something they've done before. It's a very important trump card. Shipping companies are no longer going to the Straits of Hormuz because they're worried their tankers or their ships might get stuck. Gulf countries use this strait to import some food and products from other parts of Asia, so closing it comes at a price for Iran too. This is something the Iranian regime has decided we're just going to have to bear the economic cost of this bear the burden of this, but we're just going to make everybody heard as a consequence of this. And we can see the impact of that already. The price of oil has gone up. And you can see from this time lapse how the strait was incredibly busy before and now it's not.
And there's another choke point that could disrupt global trade. It's not in Iran's control, but it's close to one of its remaining allies, the Houthis, the militia group based in Yemen. Ships crossed the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait to go through the Suez Canal and up into the Mediterranean Sea. The Houthis have attacked ships in this region before. And the alternative route going around the Cape of Good Hope is longer and a lot more expensive. The Middle East and this region, really it's a key point in the global supply chain. It just depends how long this conflict is going to go on for. You could well see an impact in terms of food security in terms of inflation.
So what began with strikes in Iran has had a ripple effect through the region and beyond. We're going to see Iran becoming more and more isolated in a region where it didn't have that many friends to begin with. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, it's not going to end the tensions that come with it. There's a long road ahead in terms of finding the stability that works for everyone.