Transcription
Hello to all, I hope you are doing well. We are back for the Tuesday, October 28th brief, it is 8:17 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had quite a few movements on Bitcoin, even though we were in a rather good range. We had the movement I was expecting, so we potentially had a dump coming. We had an analysis that was rather good, but I did not take my trade because we were still bullish on M15, on H4, sorry. I told myself that it was not necessarily worth taking this short, and in fact, it was a very good idea. The goal was to come and collect all of the morning's liquidity. Then, to simply come up and take the $115,700, then to dump and potentially close the CME gap. And in fact, with these things done, we also see that it was an OTE zone for this movement. When we look at it, we see that it was an OTE zone, taking liquidity for the day, to come and get the last M15 FVG we had here, we had a change of trend here. And if we look on H4, it was also the end of the H4 IFVG that we had. So if we look right here, we had this IFVG here which had not been effective. We see it right here on this wick, it had not been effective. And so, we see that when we came to close it completely, it was simply rejected. So it's a shame, I didn't take this short. I could have, given that I was in front of it, I had also placed the order, I had planned to call it on the school, and after H4 analysis, I told myself, "Yeah, but we are still bullish on H4." It's a bit of a shame to short now. Given that, well, we don't have a really defined setup, we could very well continue to pump, given that the zone of interest is between $118,600 and $119,200 to have a rejection, well logically that's where we should have had it. So logically, we should continue to dump calmly, given that you will see that the data is a bit bearish, and logically we should then have a rebound to come and get the key zone, and that would be rather interesting to do before the FOMC meeting tomorrow. So clearly, it would be really interesting to have a movement like this. So we will look at it, and then I will show you the technical plan that is likely to be made. In terms of economic news, today we have the conference, we have the Conference Board consumer confidence at 3 PM. So, expect quite a few movements, as well as new home sales. But it is especially tomorrow where we will have movement, given that we have the Fed's decision on interest rates at 7 PM, as well as the FOMC press conference at 7:30 PM. So, expect quite a few movements tomorrow between 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM, we are likely to move a lot. We will also have quite a few movements on Thursday, given that we have the quarterly GDP at 1:30 PM. So expect quite a few movements, given that with the shutdown, it costs quite a lot of money. So, in particular, it seems to me that it costs 0.2% of GDP per day. So clearly, these are astronomical sums. So if I don't want to say anything wrong, these are figures to be confirmed, but I think I read that. So it needs to be confirmed with a reliable source to know how much it costs. But clearly, this GDP should be intact, given that we are in the quarter, but the next GDP could take a huge hit, and therefore the next GDP figures could be very bad. So be careful about that, simply because of the shutdown. I invite you to look up what a shutdown is with ChatGPT or Google. You will learn quite a bit. In terms of crypto, what we see is that we have KOAI, which is down 30% today. So clearly KOAI is yo-yoing, we are at +70, 80, 100% and then it loses 80%. So clearly, these are not necessarily the cryptos I would have in spot. Particularly simply due to this volatility. After, there are potentially trades to be taken on it. We have Trump up 10%, HBAR up 16%, Aster down 5% which is in a rather interesting zone. We will see if it reacts well, but in any case, it is rather interesting. We also have EX up 4%, and otherwise, we see that most cryptos are in the red, mainly due to Bitcoin's dump. If we look at funding and open interest, what we see currently is that we are technically on a rebound, but what we see is that we have a dump in open interest. We have a total lack of interest in derivative contracts currently. But there is still something to point out, and that is that since we made this mini bottom around, between 12:30 AM yesterday and now, all the longs, well all the positions that are opening are essentially longs. We simply see an increase in open interest here with an increase in funding. We also see an increase in open interest here. So here, there was a small decrease in funding, which means that here, shorts were opened. So we have liquidations to come and collect above. Here it was longs, so we should have collected them when we made this wick. So, we don't necessarily have liquidations to collect. Then, what we see here is that here, we have an increase in open interest with an increase in funding, which means that here, longs were opened. So, consequently, we have liquidity to collect below. And if I look mostly, here, we have more of an increase in funding, which means that logically, shorts are being closed and potentially longs are also being opened. So that means that the price is being pushed by derivative contracts currently because spot is not buying at all, and you will see that with the whales later. In terms of liquidations, what we see is that we have liquidity clusters to collect around $116,700 if we look over 24 hours. But if we look over 3 days, we still have liquidations to collect around $116,40. But the bulk of the work is still up to $112,364, and we could push a bit up to $111,000, or even $110,000, given that we have a cluster below to collect as well. So it can push up to $110,000. So be careful about that. In terms of what the whales are doing, the whales are currently selling, we see it clearly. So they sold this movement. I'm going to zoom out a bit. And we clearly see a divergence between the price and what the whales are doing. We clearly see that the price is here, while the whales are already at the selling level. So that means we are at the equivalent of $111,237. In terms of micro whales, it's the same thing. We clearly see that we have come back to collect this zone of $111,000, of $111,200. And so that means that there is a real divergence between what spot is doing and what the price is doing. So that means that it is really pushed by derivative contracts and that the price is maintained by derivative contracts. So that means that we are not safe from having a rebound and then liquidating this zone to then potentially set a bottom or go much lower. So be careful about that. But logically, we should have a movement like this on Bitcoin, particularly due to the divergence between spot and derivative contracts. Given that, well, when derivative contracts are pushing, at some point they will exit their positions, and when they exit their positions, well, we come back, we reset, and we come back to the spot price. And currently the spot price, well, it's $111,000, it's $111,200. So technically, $111,200 coincides quite well, given that here we have liquidity clusters to collect, so right here, it also coincides with a half retracement of the entire bullish movement, and so that would be a good reset because we have an FVG to collect around $111,700 which is located right here. So here I am on M15, I'm going to switch to H4 and you will see that there is a zone that is rather interesting, it is notably this FVG. So, we have it right here between $111,679 and $112,851. So, we are not safe from coming to collect this zone, or even a wick below $111,200, and then potentially having a rebound. So logically, we should do something like this, in which we could then have a rebound to come and collect the key zone of $118,900. If we also look at the CME gap, we see it clearly that the CME gap, we would close it if we go to $11,100 on the CME price. We have not yet entered the gap, so logically the dump should intensify today, and we could potentially have a rebound during the FOMC. That could be really interesting. And then, we have a discussion between, we have a conference between Trump and the Chinese president. I'll spare you my pronunciation of the name. And logically, after that, it could be bullish because clearly they are finding agreements. So it could be bullish news. So why not even have a dump during the FOMC and then a rebound during the conference between the Chinese president and the American president. That could be rather interesting. So logically, this zone here is a zone where we should come, given that, well, we potentially have a rebound coming in the FVG that we have right here between $114,500 and $114,700. We also have liquidations to collect in this zone. So logically, we should therefore simply do something like this, in which we then close this FVG, and that could be really interesting. So, so that's it, the plan is a dump plan for today and tomorrow. And logically, we should then have a rebound to be able to come and collect a bit higher, $118,000, $118,000, $119,000, which could be really interesting then to potentially open a short if we have a setup in this zone. So, that's it, currently I remain bearish on short timeframes, bullish on medium timeframes, and bearish on long timeframes. So, that's it, it could be really interesting to do this kind of movement, in which we have a rejection and then we completely liquidate the wick to then move on to better things, because clearly too many people have managed to long this zone, and so it is very likely to have a lower low. So, that's it, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. Also, there is a free training. I'll put the link in the description of this video. The only thing I ask is to go through my affiliate links to get access. Simply because it is training that could cost around $1000. And clearly, I am making it available to you for free. So if you want it, don't hesitate to click on it. I just need your identifiers, your UIDs from Mex or BitGate, and I will make sure that you have gone through the link before validating the training for you. So, I wish you a very good day. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves.