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Vyacheslav Shiryaev, economic observer. Join us. Vyacheslav, we welcome you on Freedom. >> Hello, >> Vyacheslav. Well, perhaps you can advise. I am trying to go through potential possible buyers of Russian oil. If India has indeed not just reduced consumption by these percentages, but will continue to reduce this cooperation in the future. China, clearly, will not buy all of this, but perhaps some African countries will be able to make some small purchases, yes, well, compared to previous cooperation. M, I don't know who else could be thought of as new partners for the Russian Federation, not to compensate for past supplies, but at least to stay afloat in this regard. What do you think, who could it be? I I don't know anyone who could be, who could replace, because if such buyers existed, then we would see them as potential agents of Rosneft and Lukoil for increasing, that is, they should have some small volume now, for example, and we understand that there is potential for volume growth if this volume is not taken by India, for example, or Turkey, which is also refusing. The issue is not at all who can buy. The more important task for Putin now is not to sell this oil somewhere, because, well, all the taps are closed here, all the tankers are under scrutiny, India itself is stopping and inspecting these tankers. The geopolitical situation is more important now. What is happening? Why is Venezuela making an oil deal with Trump? It has been announced that they will now follow the course of American policy in the energy sector. And again, disappointment, unless Russia is not involved in these supplies at all. That is, the US will issue a license from the Ministry of Finance for the sale of oil batches and financial transactions for these batches, and no one will, naturally, detain them in the ocean. The American Navy, I mean, unless Russia is there. You understand, discussing now where this oil can be put is pointless. If America has taken such a clear and tough course that Russia should not be in the global energy markets, until the peace agreement is signed, Steve Bannon said that we will lift sanctions from the Russian oil industry when Russia signs Trump's plan, when a peace treaty is signed and the war stops. Accordingly, I have been saying for several months in a row, especially recently, for a week, Trump will not back down. What we are seeing now with India, what we are seeing now with Turkey, is a deliberate systemic squeezing of all of Russia's opportunities to receive income from oil exports and to feel the resource base for continuing the war. So I see no prospects. I see a reduction in export volumes of Russian supplies by another two times in the span of 3-4 months. China cannot take more. All their storage capacities are loaded. I don't see any countries that would risk incurring Trump's secondary sanctions, his tariffs, for some 300-500 thousand barrels a day. Well, that is, for India, it still made some sense to buy very cheaply. For several years, they say, the additional profit of Indian oil refining companies has amounted to 20 to 30 billion dollars. Well, because India is a large country, and it consumes a lot. And, naturally, these discounts are significant in the overall volume. For a country with a small consumption volume, the risk of incurring Trump's wrath, Trump's sharp reaction, for some hundreds of millions or tens of millions of dollars a year difference is not worth it. No one will want to take such risks. Therefore, there will simply be a reduction in production in Russia. Some scheme will be established, with more processing, perhaps more oil to Belarus, for more gasoline, allegedly Belarusian. They will beg Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to join some very strange schemes. Perhaps they will come up with new schemes with Vietnam, sending oil there, mixing it with Vietnamese oil there, and so on, selling it as Vietnamese. But now I see only one option, simply sending it for free as humanitarian aid to Cuba. We have already seen such a statement that Cuba is ready to accept oil and fuel from Russia as humanitarian aid. They have an energy crisis there. Trump, uh, promised, you know, wild duties on any country that will, you know, supply oil to Cuba, stopping tankers. In fact, this is an energy blockade of the island. Well, we'll see if Putin wants to get into a confrontation with Trump here too, by helping Cuba survive the sanctions that Trump has imposed on Cuba. More markets, except Cuba, for free, I mean. Just send it as humanitarian aid to Cuba. I don't see other options, to be honest. Everything else is crumbs. In the Freedom app, live broadcasts, special projects, reports from around the world, and up-to-date analytics. Everything most important on your smartphone. Simple, fast, convenient, free. Download the Freedom app from the App Store or Play Market. One click, and you are at the center of events. Knowing everything with Freedom is simple. >> Vyacheslav, how will this affect the budget, Russia's revenues? After all, oil and gas revenues remain a priority source of income for the Russian Federation. And now, if you read the latest conclusions of economists who analyze everything that is happening, I recently read the October, true, report by Alexashenko and colleagues, they also start with the oil and gas situation. How will this affect it? And, of course, in the context, we are calling you from Kyiv, of course, in the context of the war. Or will they always find money for the war, no matter how much oil they sell? >> Look, it's not about whether they will find money for the war or not. The only question is the limit of risks they can allow themselves. In terms of system stability. The system must be ready to plug not one hole, a major utility accident and a large fire at an oil refinery, but dozens simultaneously. For now, Russia is plugging these holes, because the crisis only began in 2025. And I don't believe that Putin's collective system, his Politburo, is ready to be completely defenseless, without resources, in the face of the threat that awaits them in 2027. In 2028. They are going to fight with Europe again. And they don't really have any way out. Now Trump can't be scared by anything else. Only Europe, only I don't know what else they have to do. And to be completely without resources is impossible. I don't believe in such a scenario. Well, not that I don't believe, I didn't believe in many things when they did something. But this is already impossible. It's not a matter of faith, it's impossible. Therefore, I am monitoring the dynamics of oil and gas revenues. The first figure for me is 300 billion rubles. I think we will see it in the spring. Budget revenues instead of 800-900 trillion rubles, which were per month before. We saw such figures last year, right? And then 200. When it's 200, I think then we can say that's it, because oil and gas revenues include supplies to China, and gas exports to China are small, but still there. Well, that is, it cannot become zero, this figure cannot fall to zero. There will still be, well, 200-250 billion rubles of oil and gas revenues. But this is already, well, this is a catastrophe, because this is not a shortage in the budget in addition to the deficit they planned. This is another 6 trillion rubles. In general, the main thing here is to understand and to destroy the myth that I very often hear from some unprofessional experts. Even some economists allow themselves this. It sounds like this, this myth: "Look, Putin now has, you know, oil and gas revenues, like, 16% of the budget. It was just 22, once it was 40, now it's 16. And nothing. Look, Russia has learned to earn and get rich somewhere besides oil. So let's applaud, right? That's impossible. I want to destroy this myth forever. Without oil and gas exports, without oil and gas revenues, the Russian economy is a corpse. It can only exist due to hundreds of billions of dollars that flow into the economy annually from oil and gas exports. A little more metals, a little more coal, timber, and so on. Now there is none of this either. There is a little food left, a little fertilizer, and the European Union is also imposing sanctions on them, and so on. But this will be many times less than what the economy needs to simply exist, not to grow somewhere, not to stagnate, but to fall, well, at least with a slope of 40°, and not just to fall into an abyss. Because Russia, the entire Russian economy, is inefficient, it is corrupt, it is held up by props of these oil revenues. Therefore, no matter how many news items appear now, no matter how many news items arrive that look, here are some tankers detained again, and look, the discount is already 37 dollars, all of this is irrelevant. What matters is that within a year, oil and gas revenues cease to be the support of Putin's regime. He has no other substitute to keep the economy afloat. In the coming months, every day, we will receive news about the strengthening, about the deepening of the catastrophe in the Russian economy, no matter what happens, until there is a deal with Trump, until something is signed, the Russian economy will plummet, budget revenues will decrease, and the Ministry of Finance will try to compensate for this by reducing expenses, which are already impossible to reduce. The only expenses that can be reduced are war expenses. They can be reduced, naturally, by stopping this war. Taxes cannot be raised anymore, because tax collection is falling with tax increases, which they allowed themselves. About the Laffer curve, which I started talking about in September, everyone is already talking about it, even government economists at the top, they say, have we already crossed this hump of the Laffer curve and gone down, when increasing rates only leads to a decrease in revenue, a decrease in tax collection. Therefore, money printing is increasing, inflation is accelerating, and all of this, naturally, sooner or later leads to a catastrophe. Therefore, 2026 is the moment of truth. Whatever happens, if the problem with oil and gas revenues, with exports, is not solved, Russia cannot enter 2027. Well, in the state, in the form, in the status in which it entered 2026. Vyacheslav, you know, this topic of Russia's resilience with current oil and gas revenues is very interesting to me. I confess, I even tried to discuss it with ChatGPT. It gives certain forecasts on how much longer Russia can fight. And even though ChatGPT tries not to upset me, I still didn't like these forecasts very much. But yours, by the way, I like more. And I remember that representatives from Russia spoke with a delegation from the United States of America about some kind of attempt, at least, to establish mutually beneficial economic cooperation between the two countries. This was between two rounds of negotiations. What kind of mutually beneficial economic cooperation do you think can be discussed now, if, well, things are not going very well for the Russian Federation? Well, look, in front of me is a Bloomberg publication that talks about some kind of package from Dmitriev. We heard the figure of 12 trillion before. There is nothing about 12 trillion dollars in this package. But there are seven points with which, allegedly, according to Bloomberg, Dmitriev is tempting Trump. And I believe that none of these points can break Trump's resolve to finish off the global South. And there is nothing here that would simply outweigh, in Trump's eyes, the benefit he receives from putting India, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and all the others under control. The first point is aircraft contracts, that is, Boeing purchases, I understand. Well, it's more needed by Russia, not the US. Boeing's problem now is not with sales, but with fulfilling its production plan. They are unable to deliver ordered aircraft. That is, if Russia joins the queue for new Boeings, it will find itself at the end of this queue and will start receiving these Boeings, I don't know, in 3, in 5 years. Boeing is neither cold nor hot from the fact that Russia will allegedly resume cooperation with the US in aviation. Yes. Next, joint oil and LNG enterprises, including offshore hard-to-reach fields, which, attention, will take into account previous US investments. That is, all companies that were expelled from Russia and robbed by Putin will allegedly get everything back and even more. But I think that in Trump's place, any, well, in the place of the Trump administration, one should say something like this. Listen, this is not even up for discussion, what you stole, you return even. Don't put these points into some prospects for cooperation. As for joint oil and LNG enterprises, let's be specific, will Novatek give 50% of Arctic LNG-2 to ExxonMobil or what specifically? This is all still up in the air. If they just say: "Let's give you, uh, licenses for fields," then, listen, there is currently a surplus of oil and liquefied gas on the market, and new fields are unlikely to be of much interest to American energy companies. Therefore, I don't think the second point is a carrot either. Point three - preferential terms for the return of American companies to the Russian market. Here, the same thing, I would say, from the American administration, the phrase could be: "This is not even up for discussion. Everything you stole, everything, everyone you kicked out, you return." Point four. Cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, including enterprises. Well, that is, they say: "Let's, you know, do calculations on our energy capacities." Listen, there is a deficit of electricity in Russia. A deficit. Russia itself lacks electricity. The grids are worn out. Read the statement of the Minister of Energy Tsivilev, who said that Russia needs to build a huge amount of new energy capacities. Who will provide the money for this? Why build it in Russia, if it can be built in much cheaper and normal countries that don't start wars every 5 years? Yes, and it will be cheaper for America to provide its artificial intelligence infrastructure. Three more points. Russia's return to the dollar settlement system, including energy transactions, is complete nonsense. I'll watch Putin propose to China to trade in dollars. What will China answer and what three letters will it send Putin? This is complete nonsense. Russia, in trade with its main partner, which accounts for a huge part of its foreign trade turnover, $200 billion, is China. Everything else is such pennies, which, well, you know, the volume of trade between Russia and America is only a few billion dollars, about 50-70 times less than with China. And I exclude the transition to dollars in trade with China. Next, point six. Cooperation in the extraction of raw materials, lithium, copper, nickel, platinum. Well, well, perhaps for this reason, Shoigu's daughter, the former Minister of Defense of Russia, was sent to Siberia to engage in some clusters for the development of lithium and other rare earth elements. But this, I don't consider this some kind of lure for Trump. He wants to control all of this directly. It's better for him to find it in Greenland than in Siberia. And the last point. Cooperation in promoting fossil fuels as an alternative to climate-friendly ideology, low emission policies, exhaust gases, more preferred by China and Europe. So, what is Dmitriev telling Trump in point seven? Look, China and Europe, he now puts Europe next to China as America's enemies. They are carrying out a green transition. They are building wind turbines, they are building solar power plants, they are building tidal, hydro. Everything that is not tied to fossil fuels. Let's bend them together so that they again buy some fossil fuels. And this is called cooperation in promotion. That is, I don't know, will they buy advertising on Chinese television or European channels, that let's go back to fossil fuels. No, this is nonsense. Europe and China have made a strategic decision to gradually move away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. Nothing will work for Putin here. In dry residue. We look at these seven points and see nothing that could really interest Trump. Therefore, no, I don't see any alternative here that could tip the scales in Trump's favor for Putin. >> What about gold, currency for Russia? We also see news that Russia is starting to sell gold. How are things going with that? And in general, how important is gold, precious metals, in the modern world in the 21st century, the second quarter of it, because something from ancient times. >> No, gold has always been a safe haven asset. The only question is that it cannot be worth as much as this asset is now. And we have seen huge fluctuations in precious metal prices. Remember one day when silver fell by 40%. Therefore, uh, two problems. First, that it is a very overvalued asset, which will have a correction. Yes, Russia has 2300 tons, but it is all under sanctions. Russia cannot sell much. In small batches with large discounts. This is what does not provide any, well, strategic reserve of resources in case something goes wrong for Putin. Therefore, the main focus of attention of all forces of good, I have repeatedly emphasized this, should be on imposing additional sanctions on buyers of Russian gold, primarily on central banks. And those countries that play with Russian gold should understand that at some point, the entry of a gold bar from the Russian Federation's State Repository into the State Repository, I don't know, of Beijing, Delhi, Ankara, or some other country, will immediately make the gold and foreign exchange reserves of that country toxic. From one bar, because Russia's gold reserves, Russia's gold is under sanctions. You cannot buy it at any price, because you can still buy oil. You just can't buy it at a price higher than the price cap, but you can buy it, but you have no right to buy gold. And, uh, that, uh, Russia largely relies in its delusions on the fact that they have some kind of reserve, that they have a resource, a reserve. And if something happens, look, we have 2,300 tons of gold, and each ounce of gold is now worth $5,500, not $3,000, as not long ago. Yes, we will last. Look, it's getting more expensive, and soon it will be worth $10,000. Nothing is impossible for us. We will fight on. So that this confidence in Putin's system does not exist, so that they don't think like that, it is very important to draw the attention of all European partners, American partners to the fact that buying anything from those central banks or dealing with those central banks that buy any gold from Russia with a stamp, with a Russian stamp, yes, it would be a very important and necessary step to practically nullify all these resources that, in their opinion, exist, because, naturally, this is only their opinion, but which supports them in the confidence that we still have something in our pockets, we still have some resources, but in reality they don't, because, as I explained, you will sell gold at a fifty percent discount. You cannot sell everything at once. You will sell it for years, this reserve, with huge discounts. And at some point you will realize that what you are selling is not enough, even to cover the annual deficit that arises at all levels of the financial system. >> Thank you, Vyacheslav, for being with Freedom today. Vyacheslav Shiryaev, economic observer, was with us.