Transcription
Hello everyone, and I hope you are doing well. So today, I'm offering you a slightly different video with the goal of going over the main psychological biases that cause the majority of people to lose money in crypto because yes, in cryptocurrency, we have between 80 and 90% of investors who lose. So obviously, as always, they lose for reasons that are almost always the same. We find quite classic patterns, and since I've been investing in cryptocurrency for 8 years now, I've gone through all these phases, most of which I've overcome to be able to start truly making money in the long term in a fairly calm manner in the crypto market, which is obviously the most complicated, most volatile market, which is open 24/7, which is manipulated and manipulable since it is unregulated. Anyway, it's a complicated market, and so you have to get through all the obstacles, and to get through them optimally, you have to know them.
So, the main bias and the first one we'll talk about is confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is constantly looking for news, looking for charts, looking for people who will talk about the same things as you, who will have the same convictions as you all day long. And this is a big trap when you look at this kind of tweet, for example. Here, bull run 2026 with the Bitcoin chart. You see, there was the trendline. We are at the bottom of the trendline. Naturally, it's going to take off again with a message saying at 80,000, I told you it was a scam. At 126, I told you that it was going to crash, etc. And then finally, when it's at 1 million, you'll say, "Ah, well, I could have known." You have other charts, here, Cryptoset sharing a possible head and shoulders with the chart showing a potential bullish recovery, and in fact, you will constantly feed yourself only with this type of chart that will show you perspectives that are always bullish if you are bullish, always bearish if you are bearish, and you will only take into account this kind of indicator, this kind of news, YouTube videos, etc. And if someone tells you they are bearish while you are bullish, it will frustrate you, it will annoy you. Sometimes some people react very badly. That's why we have a lot of haters in the crypto community because people who are bullish hate people who are bearish, and vice versa. Anyway, so obviously, this is the first lever you can act on. Make your X feed as complete as possible. Follow people who are bearish, follow people who are bullish who will show you different charts because there are charts like this one, for example, that show you that we had bearish trendlines on this kind of oscillator, for example, with a potential return lower, and to buy when we are back here, on the annualized funding rates, etc. So potentially, we need to reach a much lower capitulation level before we can take off again. And by having complete news, indicators that show you both sides of the same coin, it shows you that there is always bullishness, there is always bearishness, and it's up to you to arbitrate between bullish news and bearish news, between bullish indicators and bearish indicators to form an opinion and invest calmly. So obviously, that's what I do daily, that's what I do and share in my private investment circle, but that's what you must be able to do for yourself at all times.
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The second bias I'm going to talk about is anchoring bias. This is a bias that is not very well known, or at least not very widespread. It is known, let's not exaggerate, but it's not very widespread. Anchoring bias is telling yourself, for example, and this affects the altcoin part a lot. So, let's take one at random, for example, OM. You go to CoinMarketCap for Mantra. Currently, it's at 7 cents. It was already at $9. Many people will say, "This is a gift, it's incredible, I'm at a support level because we've worked these levels before, I'm almost at the same level. If we get back to the same levels as before, I'll make a 100x." So obviously, this is real. That is to say, if we get back to previous levels, you will make 10,000%, okay? 100x. Except that you have a very, very low probability of making this kind of move. It's like every time, it's not cryptos that are in continuous bearish configurations. Okay? Here, you see that we are breaking support, making lower lows, we never manage to regain bullish trends. If you take the Vegas tunnel, you see that we are continuously sliding along the daily tunnels, the 4-hour tunnels, the 1-hour tunnels, etc. And so obviously, this is a sign that there are no buyers, no trend reversal, and therefore no reason for this crypto to recover. And it's not because the token was worth a certain financial amount at a certain time that it will be worth again, that it will reach its ATH in the future. Okay? And this is something that is very frequent. You tell yourself, "Ah, but look at the time, here, I'm on normal, you see on Kaspa, we were at 20 cents, I'm currently at 4. This is a gift, it's a bargain." Regardless of the current value of the token compared to its past value, what you need to look at are the supports, the flows. Do we have buyers? Do we have indicators that tell us, "Yes, we are at a low point." Okay? And if you have a complete set of clues that tell you, "Be careful, we are probably in a reversal phase," then you should buy. But the person who bought here because it was 10 cents instead of 20 and had seen a -50%, well, here they had a small rebound and then a big crash. And again, the person who was at 10 cents here reached 5 cents here. So in a few months, they lost 50% of their value. And so here you lost -50%. Here -50%, and again here between 5 cents and 4 cents, you are still at -20%, and it's not at all improbable to reach the level here at 1.2, 1.4 cents. Okay? So it would be another -50%. Okay? Or more. So obviously, this is what you must keep in mind. Past prices are not guaranteed. It's not because a crypto was worth X that it will be worth the same in the future. Okay? We are not dealing with highly capitalized, highly supported assets, etc. I remember even back then, when we were dealing with large companies like Meta, for example. Well, Meta at the time, when it had its big crash in 2022, when we had the big bear market after the heavy investments in the metaverse, etc., when Meta renamed itself, Facebook renamed itself Meta, etc., -77%. Here, it was very difficult for Meta. At the time, no one wanted to invest in it, and yet it was a company that generated cash, that had real assets, that had a very good financial health. And so in the end, we had the kind of huge pump that we had afterward with almost a 10x. Okay, this happens with large companies. Okay, we're talking about Meta, not your little crypto, Plume, or I don't know, Velo, or Bitcoin Cash. Obviously, for this kind of small crypto, there's no guarantee it will be worth more in the future than it was in the past. If you take Bitcoin Cash, for example, here, let's switch to weekly, you have here the very example of a crypto that was worth a lot in the past, during the 2017 cycle, which was a fork of Bitcoin, okay? So it was a copy of the Bitcoin blockchain. Well, you see that here we had a second cycle in 2021 that was much less performing than the 2017 cycle, where people who had bought in 2017 at the top never saw a higher price. And you see that in the 2023 to 2025 cycle, okay, where we had a big bullish phase, well, you see that Bitcoin largely beat its ATH, and Bitcoin Cash far from it. Okay? So obviously, past prices are not guarantees of returns in the future. And that's why we don't indefinitely hold cryptos randomly. Okay? Some cryptos go through cycles. TRX, which I talk about regularly, you see that it has gone through the 2017, 2020, and 2025 cycles, each time making higher highs. So, except for the big wick after the ICO, but overall, we reached higher levels in terms of closing prices and especially real traded prices, okay? Not just a bullish expansion for a week, but you see that here, we managed to create a bullish trend on a crypto that has clients, in any case, people who use this blockchain, who generate fees, who generate revenue, etc. It's very different from a crypto that is a startup and is launching and has, for example, like Starknet, a big bearish trend. This doesn't mean we'll reach the price levels of $2 again. Okay? We are at 8 cents. People who bought here, okay, thinking it would go back up to $2.50. Well, they suffered here, from the support level, -50%. Then from this support level, they lost again, they lost another 65%. And so if we look now from the beginning until now, okay? Again, I'm not taking the highest point, you see that we've lost 97% of its value. And this doesn't mean we'll reach those levels again. It's even less probable to reach those levels than for a crypto that is relatively high to explode its resistance levels. So, anchoring bias, be very careful with that in your altcoin investments.
The next bias I want to talk about is the illusion of series. This is a bias that is really, really common in crypto and in Bitcoin analysis. It's really very frequent to systematically see patterns repeating, to see fractals, to see repetitions, patterns, etc. Call them what you want. It's really very common to say, "Look, we'll take two indicators, at random, and say, back then there was this configuration and that configuration. So, naturally, here, with this configuration, it can only do exactly the same thing." Okay? This is what we call the illusion of series, which is to say, you'll take two indicators completely arbitrarily, three typical patterns, and you'll only look at that. Except that if we look here, here, here, we can indeed have RSIs that on daily have come back to test the 30 levels. So each time we had that. So we will necessarily have that. This is what we call the illusion of series because obviously, very different things are happening. If we look, I'll show you here, okay? Long-term positions on-chain. So, we're moving into on-chain analysis. We're looking, as you know, it's one of my specialties. I really like on-chain analysis. It allows us to look at internal flows within the crypto blockchain to see what different market players are doing. And so here, we're looking at people who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. Okay? And we're looking at the fact that during these three phases, you see that we had very different behaviors. In the previous two, we had massive purchases from long-term holders here and here. Okay? Which is far from being the case currently. Here, we are at a low point with massive selling by long-term holders, okay? Massive buying here from long-term holders here as well, and here a decrease. So obviously, if we only consider the RSI, we'll say, "Naturally, this can only go up." We had this pattern, this pattern, so it's bound to take off again. Except that here, we were very supported by long-term holders, very supported, and here we are very sellers. So, ultimately, isn't the highest probability this? Well, maybe. Okay, you know my point of view if you watch the channel regularly. I tend to be quite bearish on current movements. So obviously, to see all these analyses, I share them in the public briefs, partly, and the rest I reserve for the public analysis part. We just did almost three-quarters of an hour this morning with the private investment circle to share all these on-chain, technical, order flow indicators, etc., by looking a bit at the macroeconomics as well, to be able to form a concrete opinion, not just the illusion of series. Okay? There is always an indicator that is well-oriented, always an indicator that is poorly oriented, but it is precisely the synthesis of all these indicators that will allow you to form a truly precise opinion.
The next bias I'm going to talk about is the gambler's fallacy. This is also something very common. It happens in everyday life but also in crypto. It's the idea of saying, "If it's been going down for 10 days, it's bound to go back up." Okay? Typically, you play heads or tails, you're with a friend, it lands on tails six times in a row. He asks you what you're going to bet on. Instinctively, you'll say, "It's bound to land on heads." It's landed on tails six times, so the seventh time, it will land on heads. Except that, ultimately, if we look purely from a statistical point of view, on the seventh draw, there's as much probability of landing on heads as on tails. Okay? Chance is chance. There is no series or no reason why such or such an event related to chance should not happen once, twice, three times in a row. Okay? And it's not because it's been going up for so many days that it will stop going up. If the conditions are right for it to go up, it will continue to go up. If the conditions are right for it to continue to go down, it will continue to go down. Okay? And so obviously, in a financial market, we will have imbalances, okay? So phases where we have irrationality. But remember that old saying, or rather that old quote: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Okay? If you think it's going to go back up, okay? If you thought it was going to go back up in 2021, okay? If you said to yourself, "No, this is a good entry point, it's bound to stop going down, I'm buying again," well, you see that it took a long time of decline, a good period of decline before it could start going up again. And can you remain solvent throughout this phase? That is to say, continue to buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip with all your funds, continuing to have losses, systematic losses? Well, that's for you to determine, but the risk is always the following: it's always to say, here, for example, with gold, on the contrary, gold is in a full bullish expansion phase. Okay? So we have the famous breakout, etc. If here you said, given the configuration, I'll switch to weekly to make it even more impressive. If here you said, "No, we've reached huge excess levels. It's bound to go down. I'm shorting the market and I'm putting my stop loss here, for example." But here you are accumulating losses, losses, losses, losses. If you had put a stop loss, you're liquidated, so good. But here, you are accumulating losses and losses and losses. So, can you continue to wait for the price to go up, reach its top, and then go down? Okay? Well, that's for you to determine, but potentially you risk liquidation, you risk insolvency long before the asset becomes rational again. Obviously, seeing an asset like this skyrocket, go up in a straight line, is obviously irrational. Okay? And how long and at what price level will we reach before we hit our top? Our top could be at 4008, it could be at 5, it could be at 7000 dollars. Okay? This is obviously something unpredictable because it's linked to euphoria, to excess. And excess in one direction or the other is very difficult to predict. Okay? The timeframe, we suspect it won't last another 5 years of growth like this. Okay? We suspect that in the coming months, we should mark our top. Okay? A real blow-off top, but at what price level will we mark it? That's a mystery. Okay? And so obviously, you must keep this in mind. It's not because it has only gone up that it will stop going up. If the conditions are right for it to go up, it will continue to go up.
And the last bias I'm going to talk about, and it's a bias that I hate. In any case, it's a bias that I see far too often and that I don't like at all. It's the bias of saying that we could have predicted the movement, that the event that occurred was predictable. Okay? This is called hindsight bias. Okay? Where you will systematically try to find reasons why it went up, why it went down. The specialists in this are BFM Business. Okay? Every time a stock goes up or the CAC 40 goes up, they'll say, "Yes, it's because such economic news in Bulgaria tells us it's very positive." So naturally, the CAC 40 went up. And conversely, if there's the opposite news two days later and the market continues to rise, they'll find another reason why the market is rising. In fact, they look in the morning if the market is going up or down. They look at positive and negative news and say, "Well, if it went up, it's because of such positive news. If it went down, it's because of such negative news." Okay. Well, sometimes, things are just unpredictable. Okay? Unpredictable in the sense that in the crypto market, we are in a manipulated market because it is unregulated. And so, naturally, you have people who have the means to manipulate. If you have the means to bend the rules of the game and there's no referee, then naturally you have no reason not to do it. So people do it. And for example, the crash that occurred on October 10th was by nature unpredictable. Okay? So after the fact, we say, "Yes, we could have checked the addresses to see that a whale had opened a short, etc." But you see that since then, you have the same whale or other whales who have taken shorts or longs and have been liquidated. So in fact, it's not every time, not all movements are predictable, far from it. And it's not because such and such a person or such an indicator predicted such a movement that they will be able to predict all the following ones. Okay? What is needed is a method, rigor, and with the play of probabilities, you will predict or anticipate six movements out of 10. Well, that's enough, okay? Predicting more than half of things is enough to be profitable and to be profitable. Okay? That's all you need to do. It's called risk management. It's indeed something that I really advocate for because I find that it's not explained enough on French YouTube, risk management. It's very, very important. You don't systematically enter with all your capital. You don't systematically exit with all your capital. You don't, as we discussed with confirmation bias, systematically look at the same news all the time. Okay? You have, once again, an effect I haven't mentioned, but the Dunning-Kruger effect, which is thinking you're an expert when you've been in crypto for 2 months, 3 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, you've experienced a bull run, so you know you'll be able to handle all the following ones. Okay. I can tell you that there are many, many YouTubers here who have been in crypto since 2020-2021 who have been very badly trapped because all the indicators, or a majority of indicators from 2020-2021, gave false signals in this cycle. They indicated bear markets. You have a traditional example here at around $90,000, $85,000, I believe. Willy Woo, who is not a beginner, okay? He's someone with experience who announced a bear market here, who said, "Yes, it's here, I think, given the on-chain indicators, etc., it doesn't please me to say it, but I think we are in a bear market." Well, following his tweet, we had something like a 50% rise in Bitcoin. Okay? You must always remain very humble. Okay? What's needed is to be able to surf the waves and apply good risk management to be able to survive all these movements.
So, I hope you enjoyed this slightly off-topic video. If so, don't hesitate to let us know, and I'll make more videos of this type. So, the market is still quite tricky, so be careful for the end of the year. I wish you excellent holidays. A happy new year to all. And we'll meet again for a next video in early January 2026. Thank you.