Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for tuning back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance and the fact that it has dropped quite a bit recently, to less than 62%. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, this should be an interesting video. We're going to cover a few different viewpoints on how to look at this. Obviously, some altcoins are ripping. Um, I mean, Ethereum has gone up quite a bit recently ever since it went home, which, you know, continues to take away dominance, right? If Ethereum is going up against Bitcoin, that's going to be one of the biggest reasons Bitcoin dominance drops. But also, you have other coins doing well, too. It's not just Ethereum. You have coins like XRP just made a new all-time high, and XRP also has a pretty high market cap compared to a lot of other altcoins. So, when you have two of the biggest, um, coins besides Bitcoin going up, it's certainly going to have a negative impact on Bitcoin dominance.
Now, the level that Bitcoin dominance got rejected at is the level that we said was likely going to be a strong resistance level. Right now, if you've been part of the Bitcoin dominance journey that we really started on back in 2021, 2022, one of the things you'll remember is how this has played out. Every single time we've reached a new fib level, right? So, when Bitcoin dominance first reached the 382 at around 52%, it had a pretty strong rejection off of that level. That rejection occurred in June, right? It occurred in June of 2023. The rejection off the 236 level, uh, which, I mean, it technically went just above it. I guess this was actually before that low was in, but this also occurred in June, right? That rejection. Now, if you go the next year, when Bitcoin dominance made it to the 0.5 fib, this rejection here actually occurred in April, and you can see it took a while to break through, right? But eventually, it broke through, and then the next rejection occurred in November at the 618 fib.
Now, this was my conservative estimate for Bitcoin dominance, right? And I said this to you guys many, many times that I was never concerned that Bitcoin dominance would not reach 60%. Right? I said that so many times, and so many people thought that 60% was too optimistic of a target for Bitcoin dominance. For me, 60% was at least it will make it to 60%, and that it could go much further than 60%. And given when we reached 60%, given the fact that all Bitcoin pairs were so far off the range lows, because basically when we reached 60%, that was back in November of 2024. When that happened, we came, we came over here and we looked at this chart and we're like, well, it's November 2024, and all Bitcoin pairs are at 0.35, right? So, how could that be the top for Bitcoin dominance when history shows us that all Bitcoin pairs like to go down to 25% of Bitcoin's market cap? And at that point, they were only at 35%. So, we hit 60, and then what did we say after that? But we said, "All right, we're likely now going to the next fib level, which is the 786." And that would correspond to 66%. And guess what? That's where we went, right? And we even had a top right here at around 64, 65. I think it actually went all the way up to 65. Lot of people called the top on dominance for the 7,000th time. And then we saw dominance go up again. And I think the reason it continued to go was to hit that fib level. It also hit it in June of 2025, right? So you can see how every single time that Bitcoin dominance reaches one of these big milestones, it gets a pretty massive rejection off of that level. And I mean, some of the times it's been a larger drop than others. Um, you know, like in 2023, it dropped from 52 down to 48, 49. Um, in 2024, it dropped from around 56 down to 53. And then in 2024, that was probably one of the bigger drops where it had gone all the way up to 61% and then dropped all the way down to 54 to 55%. That was a big drop, right? And that was difficult because we had already reached that 60% target. So, you know, there might have been a reason to just full-out pivot, but given that all Bitcoin pairs were where they were, it kept me from pivoting, right? It kept me from pivoting.
The other reason why it was so easy not to pivot was because ETH Bitcoin, I was so convinced that ETH Bitcoin had further to drop, primarily because ETHUSD had not yet gone home. And last cycle, we knew that ETH Bitcoin bottomed when ETHUSD went home. If you're not familiar with what I mean by going home, if you just look at the Ethereum logarithmic regression trend line, you can see, uh, that ETH Bitcoin bottomed right around the time that ETHUSD went home. Same thing happened last cycle, right? Same thing happened last cycle. There's the thumbnail. Didn't mean to pull that up, but same thing happened. Same thing happened last cycle where it bottomed after, actually, it bottomed right here, right? After it went into that lower logarithmic regression trend line. And so now, obviously, Ethereum is skyrocketing, right? It's going up very, very quickly. And I would encourage you to watch the video that we did on Ethereum a while back called "The Butterfly Effect," where we basically said that the way for Ethereum to potentially pave out a path to new all-time highs is to first go home. And you can see it went home, and now it's getting a pretty strong move. You know, there's probably going to be some, you know, some pit stops along the way, if I had to guess. But I would also say, you know, whenever Ethereum reaches 4K again, you know, there's only so many times the door can be knocked on without it opening, right? And I will stay true to what I said over here. If whenever ETH reaches 4K again, it's likely going to break through. Okay? So again, will it be this month, or will we have to wait a little while? I don't know. But I will say that you can see the power of Ethereum going home, right? It's getting a really nice move up. The Butterfly Effect video basically showed the path, uh, where we talked about it collapsing home and then getting a big rally up, uh, hopefully to new all-time highs before then dropping again, um, as we get closer to, you know, to the midterm year, which is normally when the crypto markets drop.
So, let's go over to Bitcoin dominance. And I want to really dissect this because obviously emotions are flying right now, and there's a lot of people, you know, saying, you know, that it's alt season, and we want to ask the question, like, is it alt season, or is this just another sort of false alarm? One thing I will say is that certain altcoins are doing exceptionally well. But one of the really interesting things about this cycle is that a lot of the altcoins that do well for about 12 to 18 months at one part of the cycle, then are not doing well later on, and the coins that did really poorly earlier in the cycle are now doing much better, right? So, like Ethereum hasn't really done that well this cycle. Now it's starting to do a lot better. XRP didn't even really bottom out against Bitcoin until November of 2024, right? And this is when we talked about this double bottom, and you can see that it did so poorly for so long, and now it's starting to do well. But if you look at something like Solana, like if you look at the SOL/BTC pair, it did really well in 2023 and 2024, and not so much in 2025. So, there's been like this rotation, uh, you know, from certain altcoins to others. But because you don't have the entire altcoin market going up at any given time, you've still seen the collective altcoin market bleed, right?
So, where are we now, right? Where are we now? Will Bitcoin dominance go higher? Uh, what's going to happen to the altcoin market, right? So, we first must define what even is alt season. Alt season is when Bitcoin dominance absolutely collapses while Bitcoin usually is range-bound, not really moving a whole lot near all-time highs, but, you know, not really breaking out one way or another. And then what happens is Bitcoin dominance collapses. And when that happens, sorry, I clicked on the wrong thing. When that happens, you get what a lot of people call alt season, right? These are the alt seasons. Okay? And this cycle, we've had so many instances where people say that it's alt season, and then you look back on it a few months later and you're like, eh, alts just kept making new lows. Now, the question is, is this time different, or is it more of the same? Obviously, with it being a post-halving year, we have to be a little bit more open-minded to that eventuality occurring or that event occurring at some point. The question is, is it right now?
I think one of the things to consider is there's two ways to really look at all Bitcoin pairs right now and Bitcoin dominance, right? Two primary ways. The first way is not even necessarily my preferred way at the moment. So, let me show you one way that is sort of like the, um, sort of the seasonal approach, but I'll tell you why I don't even necessarily agree with that approach right now. And we're going to look at it the other way. All right. So the first thing to note is that every major low by all Bitcoin pairs over the last few years has occurred in June. Not everyone, right? You've had some lower, a little bit lower, come Q4, but a lot of the lows that you see by all Bitcoin pairs are in June, right? So you have June of 2022, and then you have June of 2023, and then June of 2024. And then we talked about this again just a few weeks ago, right? You have June of 2025, right? So you have every instance in the summer, the seasonality, maybe the Bitcoin bulls go to sleep for a few months, or the Bitcoin dominance bulls perhaps go to sleep for a few months in the summer. Uh, they're probably just off enjoying, you know, their nice vacations because they've been bullish on Bitcoin dominance throughout all these years and not losing all their money, um, on micro-cap meme coins, and they're off doing their own thing. And then what happens? Altcoins get these rallies on their Bitcoin pairs, right? And everyone keeps thinking that it's the big one, and it keeps not being that. Now, the question is, is this that?
So, if you were to just look at it through the lens of the summer, right, just a seasonality approach, just say, look, in the summer, in June, we find local lows by all Bitcoin pairs, and then the market rises. And again, this is not necessarily my preferred approach right now. And I again, I'll tell you why in a minute, but I'm just going to show you this for completeness. In June of 2023, all Bitcoin pairs rallied about 21%, right before then dropping back down. In June of 2024, they rallied about 13% before dropping back down. They've already rallied about 21%, right, which is about the same that they rallied in 2023. In 2022, all Bitcoin pairs rallied 44% before dropping back down. But you can see that every single rally eventually failed, and we went lower. Now, again, when you're in the middle of the rally, I, it can be hard to sort of reason, you know, with people about these things, 'cause I mean, a lot, and, you know, I get it, right? If you're in an altcoin that's going up and you're making money and you feel pretty good about that, more power to you. My argument has been for a while now though, especially since ETH went home, if you feel like you're missing out on alt season because you're holding, say, a portfolio of Bitcoin and ETH and you're kind of following my approach, altcoins collectively are bleeding to Ethereum right now, right? This chart is Total 3 minus USDT divided by ETH. And you can see that while some altcoins are doing well, alts are bleeding fairly quickly against Ethereum. So, I don't even think you necessarily need a big exposure to the altcoin market to capture what's going on in crypto right now. Just having exposure to Ethereum is allowing you to capture the, you know, a pretty similar upside that the altcoins are seeing, and in fact, more so.
And why is that? Well, Ethereum went home. ETH dominance, if you look at ETH/BTC market cap ratios, you can see it went to the lows, right? It went, it went to the range lows. If you look at ETH dominance, it swept the low from the prior, from the prior cycle, right? Right? I mean, this is also where the market, the ETH dominance bottomed last cycle as well. And you can see it sort of slowly worked its way back up. But the point that I'm trying to make, right, the point that I'm trying to make in this case is going back to all Bitcoin pairs is that you have these rallies in the summer that then seem to like fall apart after you get into like mid-August, September. So, what I'm saying is there's a chance that altcoins could continue to go up against Bitcoin for several more weeks, right? Like, it's always a possibility. If you look at 2023, they didn't really start to fall until mid to late August, right? Um, if you look at 2017, guess what? All Bitcoin pairs also rallied in the summer, and they topped out mid to late August. And guess where? Guess where they went? 0.55. So, one of the things to consider here, especially with this rally by alt/Bitcoin pairs continuing, is you have a situation where we could easily make the comparison to the summer months where you get these smaller rallies and then note that the larger rallies that occur in November, right? Like November, if you look at November of 2023, uh, you see there's a large, a larger rally by all Bitcoin pairs than the one in the summer. And then if you look at November of 2024, there was a larger rally by all Bitcoin pairs than the one that we got in the summer. So, if you were to extrapolate that, you could say, well, what if, you know, the rally right now isn't as big as perhaps the one we might get later on this year, right? But there's one thing that doesn't quite sit well with me with that analysis. Even though, like, it it it it's probably what I would have focused more on, uh, a couple of months ago, there's something that doesn't sit well with me when thinking about it through that lens. And the thing that I, I, I, I, I'm struggling with to sort of view it in that way is if you look at Bitcoin, one of the things you'll notice, it's done this three times this cycle, right? Three times. And what it does is it breaks below the bull market support band, and then it recovers, and then right when it passes the cycle high, that is when Bitcoin dominance drops, right? That's when Bitcoin dominance drops. And you can see it's happened every single year, right? So, look at this, we'll just mark it when it passed the cycle high, okay? You see those three marks? Now, what we're going to do is we're going to overlay Bitcoin dominance onto that chart. Now, what do you notice? When it passed the cycle high here in October of 2023, that's when Bitcoin dominance got that drop. When it passed the cycle high in November of 2024, that's when Bitcoin dominance got that drop. So, there's part of me that wonders, what if this isn't the June typical June rally, but what if it's kind of like what we saw in the last two Q4s where, and that's already supported by the idea that Bitcoin dominance has had a much larger pullback, right? I mean, this is a much larger pullback than it's gotten in a lot of those, you know, just in June, right? Like this is June of 2024. Bitcoin dominance didn't really move as much. If you look at June of 2023, I mean, this is the summer of 2023. You can see that Bitcoin dominance was going up even into July. And then, I mean, it got a pullback. Um, but, you know, this was not, this is not the exact same type of setup. So, when I look at this, it makes me curious. Do you view this through the lens of June, June, June, and June? Or do you view it through the lens of, you know, is it repeating this rally, right? Like this rally right here, is that what it's repeating?
Now, what's interesting about that view is that this top by all Bitcoin pairs in December of 2023 was at 0.51. And then the one in December of 2024 was at 0.53. So, I was curious, huh? Like, if this rally by altcoins continues for a few more weeks, and again, and if it does come up here, it makes me wonder, you know, would the next level be something like, I don't know, by 0.55, possibility, right? The point is, I don't know if it's going to go that high, but the only way it's going to go that high is if ETH/BTC keeps going up. So, for me, I'm pretty comfortable with ETH. You know, we've talked a little bit about XRP/BTC and the double bottom that XRP had against Bitcoin and why that was likely going to be the low for XRP/BTC this cycle. I don't really see XRP putting in a new low against Bitcoin this cycle. I don't really see ETH putting in a new low against Bitcoin this cycle, but I could still see it happening for a lot of altcoins, even if they rally all the way up to 0.55.
Now, you might say, "Well, hold on a second, Ben. If they go all the way up to 0.55, why are we not just going all the way back up to one?" Well, my answer would be because we haven't gone to the lows. And it's a painful answer, and I know a lot of people hate me for it. Um, and that's okay, right? Uh, but that would be the reason why I would say we don't necessarily have enough fuel to get all the way back up here. Now, another thing could be said, how could we possibly go to 0.55 and still see all Bitcoin pairs go to 0.25, 25 before the year is over, all the way down here, and potentially even by late October? Great question. Well, we know it's possible because it's happened before, right? If you take this over this, this low here, you'll see this is exactly where, more or less exactly where all Bitcoin pairs bottomed in 2017, right? They bottomed a little bit lower, 0.29, but let's just say 3 and 3. They rallied all the way up to, you guessed it, 0.55 by late August. And then guess what? They still collapsed to 0.25 by late October. The path is so hard, right? The path is so hard. And, you know, I've, I've, I've been talking a lot about this in the last few videos, like how do we, how do you get the path right, right? How do you get the path right? But I see it playing out one of two ways, right? I see it either going all the way up here and then dropping to 0.25. That's one option. And then perhaps getting another move up. Or I could see it stalling out at any point between now and then, going down, and then getting that same move. Right? Whether it goes all the way up here, or whether it kind of stalls out in here, is going to be dependent on what is the prevailing view. Is the prevailing view the idea that Bitcoin's breaking out to new highs and therefore this is the time that altcoins tend to move against Bitcoin? Right? At least the last couple years, this is when alts moved. They rallied, you know, for a few weeks. They went all the way back up to basically 50% of Bitcoin's market cap collectively, and then they went back down. Is that the prevailing view that we should focus on? Or is it just, hey, they tend to rally in the summer for a few weeks and then they get a bigger rally in November, right?
I don't know for sure, right? I really don't. Um, but one thing I'm looking at to try to give me some insight into what's going to happen is this chart right here. Not this one. This one right here. This chart is the chart that I think has the answer. This is Bitcoin dominance plus ETH dominance plus USDT dominance plus USDC dominance. And the reason why this one's important is because it keeps topping out at 82%. Every single time, 82. And give me a break on the wicks, right? It was still like 80, uh, it was 83, but come on. Let's just look. We're just going to go with it, right? All the time, 82%. What is it about 82%? Now, I look at that chart and I think, huh, it it keeps doing the same thing over and over and over again. And people keep calling for alt season, but every time this metric drops, it eventually just comes back up to 82%. Right? I mean, it went all the way down to 75% in December of 2023, and it still went back to 82%. And then in 2024, in December, it went all the way down to 72%, and then it still went back up to 82%. So, who's to say that it can't come all the way back down and then go right back up to 82%? I'm not going to say it can't do. But the thing that I, I, I'm trying to get clarity on, it's the reason I keep talking about it because I'm searching for the answer myself. I have exposure to it's mostly just Bitcoin and Ethereum because, I mean, I think that Ethereum will give me the upside that the altcoin market will get, and I'm not taking on as much risk as the altcoin market. Obviously, I'm not talking about your alt. Some of the alts are doing just fine, but Ethereum is sucking that liquidity away from a lot of the altcoin market. If you look at Total 3 minus USDT divided by ETH, it's pretty obvious. Okay, don't take it up with me. Take it up with the chart.
But this chart has the answer because when did alt season occur last cycle? Right? Again, I don't. Look, there might not even be an alt season the way we saw it last cycle, but let's just say for, for, for just for fun, what needs to happen if it were to play out like last cycle? Well, last cycle, this bigger drop all the way down here didn't occur until after 82% was broken, and this metric went all the way up to 89%. Right now, look at this. When it did that, when it did that, it had a rejection at 82%. And then it dropped pretty quickly, and it actually had a wick down to 76, but then it went all the way back up. I distinctly remember December of 2020 because it felt like the altcoin market was falling apart, right? Now, you might look at the altcoins on their USD pairs, oh, they were putting in higher lows, but they were bleeding to Bitcoin, right? They were all basically putting in new lows on their Bitcoin pairs. The collective altcoin market was just struggling so much, and Bitcoin dominance just kept going up. And Bitcoin dominance, in fact, put in a new cycle high in December of 2020, and I think going into January 2021. And so I look at that and I'm like, huh. Well, I mean, we're there right now. We're at 78. Is there a chance this wicks down to 76, and everyone thinks it's going to go down to 72 or 70, and then it just breaks through and goes all the way up to 89? Definitely a possibility. I think this chart will help provide the answer to that, and I'll try to provide updates to it as it unfolds. If this chart continues to break down, then it's more likely than not that we're playing out the November portion of the alt/Bitcoin rally and not the summer one. Right? If this, well, look what happened in 2020. It had a wick below the bull market support band, but then it had a weekly close back above it. So, that's what I'm watching for the next couple of days. Does this close down here and continue going, or does it, is this only going to be a wick, and it gets a close back above? I would say this: if this metric gets a weekly close above, say, the bull market support band, which is 79.56, 79.57%, if it gets a weekly close above that and you see kind of a reversal, then you might just see all that liquidity go right back into Bitcoin, right? There's a chance that it plays out like that. Um, so, just be on the lookout for that. Um, if not, then you would likely get this pattern that we saw ETHUSD do where it, it basically, you know, it comes down, tries to break out, goes back down, tries to break out, and then goes back down again, and then breaks out, and then probably comes down, right? And then that would be how, how the cycle could ultimately play out as well.
But when you look at Bitcoin dominance, the question obviously everyone wants to know is, has it topped, right? Has it topped? Well, if ETH/BTC has bottomed, there's always a chance. But the reason why I still think there will be another Bitcoin dominance rally is because all Bitcoin pairs have not yet gone to the range lows of 0.25. Now, you can get, you can throw all these other charts at me if you want to and say, "Well, technically, if you look at like..." I don't care, guys. This is my chart. It's my channel. I'm going to keep talking about it. We've been looking at this chart for the last four years. It's worked out really well so far. I'm going to keep using it. Okay? I know in 2017, all Bitcoin pairs were at 0.25 by late October, early November. If they were there then, why can't it happen again, right? Why can't it happen again? Even if they go all the way up to 50% first, even if they go up to 0.5, it's possible. Remember we said if this is a fake out, if this here is a fake out, you would then have a nice alt/Bitcoin pair rally just like you've gotten all these other times. But there's still a good chance that it will ultimately fail if it hasn't yet visited the range lows. So, the timing of a lot of this stuff, I mean, I, I, I have a feeling in the short term, you know, Bitcoin dominance, um, will sort of be laughed at and mocked again for for a while. Um, and that's fine, right? I mean, that's fine. It's just part of the cycle. And at some point, Bitcoin dominance will really drop. And maybe that's what we're in right now. But just to look at this chart, we can see that it's had these rallies before, and yet it still eventually went lower. And the reason why I don't think any of these rallies had the ability to go all the way back up was because all Bitcoin pairs never went to the range lows.
Do you guys remember how we kept talking about Ethereum and how one of the reasons why it wasn't able to break 4K was because it never went home, right? It never went home. And in order to get enough buyers to send it past 4K, you need to go home. But then once it did, it had all this momentum to hopefully break through. And also the idea being as well, if you look at like the ETH/BTC market cap ratio, you can see that it it essentially returned to where it was, uh, last cycle, right? And again, if you look at like the ETH, um, dominance, you look at like ETH dominance, it even swept the low from the prior cycle, right? It went lower than the prior cycle. So, if you think of like that, um, you know, like the ETH/BTC market cap ratio, then I just, I think to myself, well, if ETH can, you know, if if the ETH/BTC pair, right, if ETH/BTC can go all the way back down, then why can't alts? Now, technically speaking, you know, these wicks down here were a little bit lower, right? 0.1 instead of 0.11. Um, and so maybe the argument could be, well, do all Bitcoin pairs have to technically go all the way to 0.25? Maybe it's 26. I don't know. But I, I, I think that the problem I have is that 0.3 is still about 20%. If it were like 26, maybe, but being at 3, it just seems like there's still a little bit more to give. Even if we have to watch it go up for a while first.
Now, again, if it does go up for a while, it's only going up because ETH is going up, more than likely. So, again, I think exposure to ETH will give you exposure to the alt rally without actually having direct exposure to any individual altcoin. I'm not, I'm assuming Ethereum is not an altcoin. If you want to buy altcoins and ride the rally, I think that's fine, but just be aware that there's a good chance that by mid to late August, uh, it's going to start turning back the other way. So, it would, in my opinion, it would be sort of a shorter-term thing, um, to keep in mind. Okay.
And one of the ways that, you know, that I keep thinking about this move is, you know, at some point, Bitcoin's going to have to decide what it's going to do next, right? And the reason why altcoins are using this as an opportunity to go up because Bitcoin's not. I mean, it's made a big move last week, but then this week, it's only up like 7%, right? It hasn't really made a big move this week. And you can see there's other times where when Bitcoin breaks out, it'll then kind of slowly go up, but it doesn't really get any big moves. And during that time, that's when altcoins get their larger rallies, right? When, when basically Bitcoin is going up, but it's only barely going up, right? Like it's only going up like a few thousand or something. It's not really getting, uh, the larger candles. Okay. Okay. And if that's where we are right now, then until that process ends, altcoins could continue to go up, uh, against Bitcoin. But again, going back to the Bitcoin dominance chart, if you look at the fib retracement levels on this, one of the things you'll notice is that again, it's gotten rejected at 66%, which was the next target. Right after we broke through 60, what did we say? We're going to 66. And that's where exactly where it got rejected. 66%. So, it's funny how when I, when we talk about these things, it it just seems like it's never going to happen, and then you look back on it, and it, and then it did happen, and then people are like, well, why do we assume it was going to be different? And it's just, it just keeps playing out the same way. Last year, you know, the Bitcoin dominance basically retraced this entire fib level, even went lower than that. This bottom one here, again, this is at 60%. If the top for dominance is in, right? If it's in, then I would expect it to go below 60 and then see no recovery, right? In late last year, it went below the 0.5 fib, but then it had an immediate recovery back up, right? Immediate. You had one weekly close below it, and it was right back up. So, I would say if you do go below 60 and you get a weekly close and then you don't recover immediately, then my view could actually be wrong. Right?
Also, I will say this: there is a chance that Bitcoin dominance gets another rally but puts in a lower high while all Bitcoin pairs go to lower lows. And the way that would happen is if ETH/BTC puts in a higher low, right? Because Ethereum takes up so much of the overall market cap, if it's putting in a higher low, then that's going to have a big effect on Bitcoin dominance, right? So, we're in that season right now, kind of like, you know, kind of like sort of the summer of 2024 and the summer of 2023, and even potentially, if you want to view it through the lens of Bitcoin getting back above to new cycle highs and then consolidating, or just like right here, right? It's in this phase where altcoins are using this as an opportunity, and everyone's calling for for alt season again. But again, the reason why I, again, that doesn't mean you can't ride the altcoin wave. But if you see all Bitcoin pairs at 0.5, 0.5 to 0.55 in a month, that might be it, right? Before that liquidity goes back to Bitcoin. I'm not 100% convinced it's going to get that high if this other chart's going to play out right where, like, it just finds support, um, on the weekly right around here, and then just blasts up immediately. If that happens, what would likely happen is that like all that liquidity from alts would go right back into Bitcoin. You know, Bitcoin would surge itself and then get, you know, and then drop, and then on a bounce, then alts would start to do well again if it were to play out like that. But I think for now, the base case is just going to be that the Bitcoin dominance will likely be kind of stuck in this range here for a while, right? It could go back down to 60. It could even go below 60. But one of the things I was watching as well, if you look at Bitcoin dominance RSI, it's getting pretty close to where it bottomed out at in December of 2024. Still got a little bit further to go. But what's really interesting, if you look at the RSI on the daily time frame, Bitcoin dominance RSI on the daily is at 15, right? The last time it was at that level was in May of 2021. So, again, I don't know. And I mean, like technically speaking, like this was an alt season because it it went down there and then it stayed down there. But you can see the difference between like an alt season and these where you just get these very brief moves down and people think it's alt season, but it's a fake out, right? It's people then convert their Bitcoin to alts, and then all that liquidity from alts goes right back into Bitcoin, and then people then end up chasing Bitcoin and new all-time highs again, right? But do you see the difference between like what we've had this cycle with what people thought was alt season, and then what alt season actually was last cycle where it stayed down there? That's the hard part, right? Does it stay down there? And I, I, I could be wrong, right? But I'm not convinced that it will. And if it does, I think that get having exposure to Ethereum is a great way to capture that if Bitcoin dominance does continue to drop because the only way dominance is going to continue to drop a lot is if Ethereum is continuing to rally against its Bitcoin pair, which is a complete possibility, right? I'm not against that idea. Ethereum went home. As far as I'm concerned, I hope ETH has bottomed against Bitcoin. Um, but my point is, is, you know, with the exception of May of 2021, there's a lot of examples where, you know, Bitcoin dominance RSI got this low, and then it did soon thereafter, um, get a nice move back up.
So, I guess what I'm trying to say is Bitcoin dominance has more or less followed the blueprint that we provided, right? It keeps traveling up to a new fib level. It keeps traveling up to a new fib level, getting rejected, and then consolidating, sometimes even collapsing, right, before then potentially going right back up, um, to that, you know, to a higher, a higher level. Um, so, keep this in mind, keep this chart in mind over the next few weeks. I'm not going to lecture you every day about Bitcoin dominance. Well, that's probably not true. Uh, but let's try. I'll try not to, you know, I'll try not to. Uh, because I, there's always, I know it's the post-halving year, right? There's always a chance that like this is it, right? And this is where it just collapses. But I do think there is a case to be made that we could be repeating, you know, kind of like what happened in 2017, where there was this big rally by alts on their Bitcoin pairs, but then they still eventually collapsed to 0.25 by late October. And this, and it turned in late August, right? That was where it turned was in late August. So, that's about a month from now. That's sort of the best-case scenario. I see alts rallying for about one more month against Bitcoin and then dropping. Worst case is they just top out at any moment and then go down. But, you know, that's that's what I'm viewing. That's how I'm viewing this market. Um, and so, you know, I mean, if if Bitcoin dominance, if the top is not in, then the next surge by dominance should occur, uh, probably starting, you know, in about a month. That doesn't mean that it won't go up at all. It doesn't mean that it won't bounce at all, uh, between now and then. That that would be kind of where I would, I would expect it to, um, to really start to gain strength again would be, you know, in about four weeks or so, about about mid-August. Um, and and that's not just based on what we saw in 2017. If you look at like 2023, you can see that it also started to fade around mid-August. It first faded in late July, but then it had another move up and then back down again. Um, last year, it actually found a low in early August, right? So, it didn't even make it to mid-August before before rolling over. Um, but yeah, I mean, this is my view, guys. This is my view. And again, I, I'm not talking about every altcoin. Again, XRP, the low for XRP on its Bitcoin pair is likely in. The low for ETH on its Bitcoin pair this cycle again is likely in. Um, but I don't, I can't, I don't feel confident about saying that the low for all collectively, the collective altcoin market against Bitcoin. I don't know that that is in yet. And it might sound crazy, but again, if you look at 2017, you could see it's completely possible that you get this rally by all Bitcoin pairs only them only then see them go right back down to the range lows. Okay? I mean, that that could very well be playing out. Um, there's one more thing I wanted to show you guys before I forget. There's also a rally, uh, in, in, uh, 2020. This was at kind of the same thing that we looked at earlier. Bitcoin dominance plus ETH dominance plus USDC dominance plus USCT dominance, where you also had, you know, a rally by by all Bitcoin pairs. A pretty big rally as well, right? Where they rallied from like 27 all the way up to 39, and then they dropped all the way down to 0.08, right? Okay, they dropped 52%. Now, again, I'm not suggesting they necessarily have to drop that low, but if it, if it repeats that, then it could be a lot shorter-lived before that liquidity just flows back into Bitcoin. And I, I think one, one case to be made, uh, for the idea that, um, that liquidity could flow into Bitcoin sooner rather than waiting, you know, a couple of months, would be if you look at like the ROI from the low for Bitcoin and you just compare this cycle to like the last two cycles. If you go, you know, if you, if you are a believer in the four-year cycle, then we're already on day 981, and the last couple of cycles peaked on days like 1,059 and day 1,067. The problem is that that's only about two months from now, right? That's only about two months from now. So, that doesn't really give a ton of time if, if that is to repeat itself, right? If that's to repeat itself. So, I guess one thing to consider is that there's a chance that, you know, that that that Bitcoin, um, that sucks that liquidity back sooner than what I'm suggesting because it, it might not have. I mean, if you look at this, this chart, right? Like it only, if it peaks at the same time the last couple of cycles, then it would only have two, you know, what is this? So, so didn't day 983, last cycle peaked on day 1,059, right? So that's about 70 days, so a little over two months. That would put you in like, you know, September, maybe October, if you, if you look at this other one, doesn't give you a ton of time. Um, but the point is that the alt season that people think of when they think of alt season normally happens after Bitcoin tops, right? If it's going to happen, that's when it would be, right? It would be after Bitcoin tops. Um, and so if, if this sort of tops out around the same time, like September, October, and then you, and then you see alts rally after that, then that would sort of set you up for for just repeating what we've seen before. Um, but yeah, I mean, I, I guess that's why I've, I know I've sort of jumbled some some some ideas here, but, um, I think things are going to get, you know, as you get further into the cycle, you see more volatility, right? Like in 2023, you only saw this smaller alt/Bitcoin rally, and then you got 2024, you got a larger alt/Bitcoin rally, and then maybe this one, this one we get here, maybe this one's even a larger one, right? Um, kind of like that one, but it still went to the range lows in late October, which again, if that's the case, that would line up a lot with this chart, right? Alts dropping against Bitcoin, and then after Bitcoin tops, then alts rally against Bitcoin. That would really line up with this chart. So, keep that in mind. This is how you view the market through the lens of Bitcoin dominance. I mean, just imagine if it were to play out like that, where it just, you know, it tops somewhere between, you know, like in this range, goes down here, and then gets a bigger rally up, and then that's sort of the last missing piece of the entire cycle.
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