Transcription
Our Beijing correspondent wrote in a Spiegel cover story about China: "This is the end of an era in which the global centers of power were clearly defined and the leading role of the U.S. has never been questioned." Would you share this analysis?
Would I share this assessment? Mm-hmm. First of all, you have 1.38 billion people in China. Court, 1.4. They were very poor 30-some years ago. So for them to seek a better living is a very natural thing for anybody anywhere in the world. And so the rise of China is, is an inevitability. As Henry Kissinger says, for 3,000 years, China was at the height of human civilization. When Europeans, not my word, Henry's, when Europeans were still living in caves, China was already at the height of civilization. And that's true. Now, the last 200 years, China was really out down and out. So much so that Hong Kong was taken by Britain from 10,000 miles away. And so for China today to rise is an inevitability. Back to the trend line of history of 3,000 years. Could 200 years of bad history reverse 3,000 years of glorious history? Probably not.
But what he was talking about was not just economic growth. We have been used to economic growth in incredible figures in China for decades. Now, what he's talking about is that in addition to this amazing economic growth, there is now a new political ambition, which became visible for just some time ago. So I think when he was speaking about the end of an era, this was more in the political or geopolitical aspect, he meant it. The reality of human history is that you can never totally divorce economics from politics. Economic will always bring political power, and political power is necessary to keep your economic growth. So get used to it. When you have a big country like China, 1.4 billion people, rising economically, it is absolutely natural that political power will accompany the economic power. If not, you will not be able to maintain that growth.
I'll set you an example. China, what, 20% of the energy need is imported right now? Not quite that much, but very soon there'll be 20%. So how many of you have watched a movie called *Captain Phillips*? Tom Hanks, you know that movie? Good. Young people, hahaha. So imagine a Chinese ship, a tanker, coming out of the Gulf of Hormuz, met some Somali bandits. They couldn't tell the difference between Captain Phillips and Captain Chan. And they go after the captain's chair. What are you going to do? How do you protect your energy security? Would you call the Seven Fleet of the United States and say, "Please help"? Don't forget 1996. Two aircraft carriers from the United States 7th Fleet Navy popped outside of Taiwan. And there's nothing Clinton sent them there. There's nothing China could do. In 1996, that woke up the Chinese and said, "Wow, there's just two battles, two aircraft carriers from America, and America has 14 of them, by the way. Two of them, the whole of China is can do nothing." And so would they call the 7th Fleet if they mistake you for Captain Phillips? So no choice but to have a Navy in order to protect your security of energy, right?
Sure. But in the West, we've got the impression that now, from the need of protection, having a navy, an army, there is a new political will under to play a certain role on an international level. Is there any moment for you, a specific moment you could pinpoint, when these political ambitions of China became clear in the, in the near past?
I don't think that you can pinpoint a time. Perhaps the 1996 two aircraft carriers sent by Clinton, President Clinton, was as close to it as ever. That woke up the Chinese. You have no choice but to protect your own economic interests. But that said, China is evolving gradually economically, and the political and military need to protect your economic interests will grow together with the economic rise. So I, the question rather is, should be posed to the United States: What kind of relationship do you want to have with China? If you want to have a good relationship with China, China can easily become more, less, more like, uh, Japan. Although, by the way, Japan has the second largest defense budget in the world, okay? So it's up to the United States what kind of a world of tomorrow you want. China is just doing what is necessary in the history of China, in the sense that, you know, we have returned to our rightful sort of stature in the community of nations, and we're no longer going to stick to that policy of, you know, reluctance and hiding our true intentions. That is at a day and age when China was very poor, its reliance on international affairs is very limited. So of course, you do that, don't cause trouble.
But as I said, now two things happened. No. 1, China's economy is so integrated with the rest of the world, energy as I mentioned, also there's food security, and so there is the need that stems from economics, number one. No. 2, you have the United States. The United States everywhere. The Chinese term Africa, Latin America, Middle East, everywhere you go, America just slaps you on the face. That is just a fact. Just check history of the last 30 years, in particular the last 20 years. So the Chinese say, "Hey, how do we defend ourselves? We have no choice but to take measures that is commensurate with our economic prowess today." So the fact that enunciated that doesn't mean that it happened that day. It's such a simple-minded way of looking at things that it happened that day, it changed everything. No. There is 30 years of economic development before that that gradually drove China into a position where it's so totally dependent in the rest of the world, and America acting in its own way, that the Chinese feel very threatened. So eventually, you have no choice but to have a statement such as.
So it's Chinese foreign policy, as you said, about economic interests. It's also about containing the U.S. I'm trying to paraphrase you here. That he believes it's high time for China to transform itself into a mighty force that could lead the world on political, economic, military, and environmental issues. So could you tell us what exactly he has in mind? What are those projects that he's talking about? You know, you mentioned about China containing the United States. Does China have the ability to contain the United States? Or has it been America that has been containing China? And if somebody wants to contain you, what are you gonna do? Lie down and say, "Rape me"? What do you do? You have to do what is necessary for your own people, of course. So I think you ask the wrong question. It is not China who is containing the United States. It's the United States who is trying to contain China.
Point taken. So China has no choice but to react, respond. Then to your other question about what exactly, what it means. Well, if you're a big guy like China, there are certain responsibilities. And in fact, a lot of people are accusing China today for not taking enough international responsibility. So China tries to take some international responsibility, then you come around and say, "Hey, hey, hey, what's your intention?" No win situation. Such as the world, wake up, grow up, get used to it. That's the real politics. Like it or not, the only thing you can do is be strong enough to protect yourself economically, militarily, and otherwise, right? Right. So China is doing any other country would do, except that China is a big country. I walk onto any room, nobody notices. I'm 1 meter 6. Nobody would notice me. But if I'm Yao Ming, you know, Yao Ming, 2 meter 26, the basketball player, NBA, he walks into any room, he'll be noticed. Like it or not, China is Yao Ming. 1.4 billion people. So whatever they do is in the limelight. They cannot hide like I can. So get used to it. There is a LeBron James, Yao Ming, Shaquille O'Neal in the world scene today.
And if I were to press you to give us three important projects, be it in the realm of politics, be it in the realm of military engagement, or economic, in the economic field, what would those three projects be?
I would say, number one, energy security. Number two, number two, food security. No. 3, be a respected member of the international community. That will be my three. Any problem with that? Hahaha.
I didn't get your point. Are you because America has been moving in a particular direction now for what, 15, 20 years, if you like, containing China? So I suppose you can cross a threshold and get to the next phase. Is that the case?
I don't know. What do I know? But what I do know is that there has been a gradual deterioration of the relationship between the United States and China. And the reason is very simple: United States wants to contain China. Okay? So you, you have to do your best to protect yourself. That's all.
An American journalist from the New York Times, but being also correspondent in Beijing, Edward Wong, just wrote this month that from trade to internet, from higher education to Hollywood, China is shaping the world in ways that people have only begun to grasp. What is your impression? Do you think the West is aware enough of these epochal changes happening?
Whether they are not is one issue. What is changing in actuality is another thing. Years ago, I began to, I gave a speech that says that by China being weak and out of the international community, they deprived mankind of 20% of the human ingenuity, creativity, intellectual prowess in the world. China has about 19, 20% of the world's population, right? And so you never see anything. How many of you have watched a Chinese movie 20 years ago? How many of you have heard of a Chinese artist or Chinese musician? Hardly. Because China was poor and out of sync with the rest of the world. But today, as China is economically integrated into the global community, as it gets a little wealthier, surely it will unleash the creativity and artistic expression of 1.4 billion people. In that sense, you will be watching movies from China, you will be listening to Chinese artists playing, you will be going to galleries with Chinese painters. These are inevitable things, which I think is wonderful. Why not? So I think that China will, no question, contribute much more to the global community in many, many fields in the coming years.
So what could this be? Well, as I mentioned to you, some Chinese movie will likely win the Oscar one of these days. That will be a contribution. One, I listened to Daniel Barber with with Dr. Paulson the other day, and I saw him over breakfast the next morning at the same hotel. I almost went up to him and asked, "Have you heard of a young pianist by the name of Wang Yuja?" Any of you have heard of the pianist by name of Wang Yuja? No. You will, hahaha. She records for Dutch gramophone. She was a Gilmore Young Artist recipient, uh, 2012 or something like that. So you will be hearing these names. There is a student of mine in Berlin by the name of Ning Feng, who is a violinist. And the then premier of China, Wen Jiabao, was there. So they will contribute in many, many ways. Now, you are telling about cultural or art or music. I mean, there are still other. It's beautiful and necessary, absolutely. But there is still other great responsibilities, and suggest, suggest being making the world a better one. Good. Doing your part to have a clean environment. Good. Respect, respect things you're not respecting perhaps up to now in China. Okay. Let's take some of those as an example. Yeah. Who have been more contributing to African nations in the last 20 years? Mm-hmm. The Europeans were colonialists in the old days. I made a mistake of saying to the king of Belgium one time, I used the word Congo. The Chinese just traded with Africa. They have their problems, I know that, especially the private companies. The state-owned enterprises are far better, by the way. And so the model of economic development that China has just underwent in the last 30 years, in my opinion, and that of many economists, is far more akin to the condition of many developing economies, such as in Africa and in other parts of the world. And so China can be a great model for a lot of these economies to learn from. For the African economies, yes, or in poorer economies in general.
You talk about the, the green, uh, the environmental issue. In 1974, when I was entering MBA school, as you mentioned, Nora, I was in Southern California, Claremont Graduate University, and I was driving up the hill. I cannot see the hill in front of me because in 1973-74, Los Angeles was such a disaster in the environment. I have photographs here. 1952, London, remember that? People have to wear masks on the street. So 1952, Britain. 1972, 73, Los Angeles. Now, you have 2017, China. Economic development will produce a lot of terrible effects to the environment unless you are really enlightened. But it's not enough to be enlightened. You also need money. George Schultz asked me, you know, George Schultz, the former secretary of state of Ronald Reagan, asked me maybe 15 years ago, "How come China does not build electric cars or electric cars?" I said, "Good, wonderful idea." 50, 20 years ago, China did not have the technology even for combustion cars, let alone electric cars. So I said, "George, if you want China to do that, who's going to pay? 15, 20 years ago, China was poor. You want them to build all electric cars? And at that time, electric cars are not as efficient as is today. Are you willing to pay?" Shut them up. If the West want China to take care of the environment when they were still poor, who's going to pay? Now, let me tell you something also. Today, I can assure you, the leaders in Beijing are far more enlightened than the leaders in Washington D.C. concerning the environment.
Now, let me tell you something also. Let me tell you also something. You know, the U.S. Green Building Council, they take care of buildings, make sure that they are green, right? Uh-huh. The first shopping center that has gold standard of U.S. Green Building Council, what country is it in? China. Does it start with a C? Yes. Second one, China. Third one, China. Fourth, fifth, sixth, China. The fact that they're all done by my company is coincidental. I think that point is definitely taken, Ronnie. But let's come back to the sort of, "with great power comes great responsibility" thing. You talked a lot about the environment and what China does to protect it. A different issue that comes to mind is migration, which is a global concern now. Could you imagine that China takes in refugees from say, Syria or other parts of the Middle East, or even closer to home, maybe from Myanmar? Is that an issue where China could also show responsibility?
First of all, I'm not sure if anybody has asked why don't you try. So if they did, what would be China's response? I don't know. But I do know history. A thousand years ago, there were tens of thousands of Jews at that time, refugees. Where did they end up? Nobody told them. China did. 500 years ago, there were 300,000 Arabs in southern China. What did China do to them? Welcome them in. In fact, sorry to mention this, but in the Second World War, when the Jews were persecuted in this country, the Brits did not take them. They traveled all the way to Hong Kong. They met British colony, don't accept them. They went to Shanghai. China took them. The first place that somebody will take the Jewish refugee was China. So that's an historical example, and that's much appreciated. But let's talk about the present. That's why I suggest you ask them if they would take them. Hmm. Because China is very big. China is the most populated country in the world. Will they accept? I don't know. I know what your country would do. I don't know what China would do.
What would you advise China to do?
Depends on the situation. Hypothetical questions are not as meaningful. Still, I don't know. I really don't know the answer. So all I can do is tell you what history has been.
The title of these discussions is "The World in Disorder" or "World Order Under Pressure." And I think there is an enormous amount of uncertainty regarding the current world order. But there are some things perhaps you can agree on. One is China has arrived, or is in the process of arriving, on the great power stage. The second is the Western-dominated order is changing, is in crisis, possibly crumbling. Do you see a relation between the two points? Is perhaps one point favoring the other one? Would it be one point, second one, of the Western world in disorder making the role of China on the international scene even bigger than it was possible before?
Whether the West is in disorder or not, the rise of a big country like China, no choice, will change the world order. You don't need to intentionally change anything. Your presence will change everything. Today's trade of China is about the same as that of the United States. So the two of them has trade of what, 4 trillion, 5 trillion a piece, import, export, head together. And so, you know, when you are that big, you will change the world, whether you like it or not. The answer rather, the question rather is, is the rest of the world willing to accept that 1.4 billion people want to better their livelihood? Is that legitimate? So the question should not be addressed to me. The question should be addressed to ladies and gentlemen in the audience.