Transcription
On July 7th, less than two weeks from today, the FDA is going to make one decision on one $35 stock. And eight different Wall Street analysts think that when it does, the stock is worth more than double where it trades today.
Now, here's the part that makes this different from every other biotech lottery ticket. The drug already works. The big phase 3 trial did not fail. It didn't squeak by. It crushed it. A 46% reduction in the thing that's killing these patients, kidneys, and a 42% improvement over the placebo. So this is not some coin flip on whether the science is real. The science already won. This is a coin flip on a rubber stamp. And those are two very different bets.
Now the stock is Vera Therapeutics, ticker V, a $2.5 billion biotech most investors have never heard of. Today I'm going to show you exactly what happened on July 7th. Why Wall Street is already calling this a double and the one thing that could still blow it up. So make sure to subscribe to the channel because there is a wave of these dated FDA catalysts hitting this summer. I'm going to do my best to keep you in front of all of them.
Now, we had great success with our last biotech play. Two weeks ago, I posted this video about a $1 stock with a similar pending FDA decision. 23,000 of you watched it. Those who acted have been handsomely rewarded. The stock was trading for 74. When I released that video, 12 days later, it's a $11.79, a gain of 150%. Now, I cannot guarantee the same success with this one, but that should give you an idea of the potential with these.
Now, let's talk about this company and its drug. There's a kidney disease called Igene Nephropath 60, but I'm not a doctor, so I won't get too technical. Just know that it is a disease where your own immune system slowly attacks your kidneys. You spill protein into your urine for years, and eventually a huge chunk of these patients end up on dialysis or needing a transplant. It's one of the most common causes of kidney failure in younger adults, and for decades, there wasn't much you could do about it.
Bear's drug is called. It goes after the problem upstream. It turns down the immune signal that starts the whole attack in the first place. So instead of just mopping up the damage, it shuts off the faucet. And in the big origin phase 3 trial, it worked. Patients on atassa cut the protein leaking into their urine by 46%. Think again compared to the placebo group. They did 42% better. That is a very strong result. In kidney disease, knocking protein down like that is what keeps patients off of dialysis or at the least delays it significantly. And that data was strong enough that verified for approval and the FDA put it on the fasttrack, what they call priority review. So the hard science is settled enough that the company has a hard decision date. That date, July 7th, 2026.
Now, something you should know about these biotech announcements. When the FDA approves a drug, the stock jumps instantly. When that headline hits the wire, the stock is already gapped up. It happens in seconds. The big funds have algorithms tied straight into the news feeds and the move is basically instant. So you're not just going to be reading this press release, logging into your account, calmly pressing buy and waiting. If you want to be in something like this, the rule is simple. You have to be positioned. You have to own the stock before the date, not after the news. That's the whole game on these dated catalysts. The reward goes to the people who took the position while it was uncertain. The people waiting for confirmation are the ones buying their shares after the fact.
Now, by the way, if you like this kind of breakdown, if you want the trades I'm actually taking and you want me to teach you how to find these stocks, where to buy, where to sell, including how we're playing this one, you need to join my Black Ops trading service for just $5. That is five bucks for the year, not a month. You get live 1-hour weekly mentoring sessions with me every Monday where I walk you through this stuff. I'll get you'll get a second weekly session with my analyst every Thursday. I'm going to deliver to you my proprietary Trading View indicators. You'll get my weekly newsletter delivered to your inbox every Friday, even bonus reports and access to my team. There's a ton of stuff there. It is just $5. So, click the link in description, scan that QR code or go to tradewiths.com to get signed up. But I can pretty much guarantee you it will be the best $5 investment you ever make.
So, let's get back to it. Now, here's what tells us that the smart money has already done the homework. This is not some ignored micro cap nobody covered. There are eight Wall Street analysts that rate this stock and the consensus is strong buy, not hold, not baby buy, not wait and see. Strong buy. Going into the decision, the stock trades for around $35 a share. The lowest analyst target on the board is 56. The average is 83. So, think about what we have here. The most pessimistic guy covering this stock still thinks it goes up by 60%. The average says it more than doubles.
Now, how do you buy something like this? Well, let me just show you the chart. So, I'm not going to try to time the exact bottom here. This is not a typical technical breakout. It has been drifting lower since the beginning of the year, but we are starting to see some momentum. We've got just in the last, you know, call it 2 weeks, 23 24% higher. Um, we are back above the 50-day moving average and the 200 day moving average. So, we're gaining some ground here. And again, it's not a really a perfect technical uh uh setup, but this is a newsshriven dated catalyst showing strong momentum. Um, and again, analyst targets put it somewhere between 56 on the low side. Can't get this high enough. Here we go. 56 on the low side, 110 on the high side with an average kind of in the mid-80s. So, you can see the opportunity there on this stock.
Now, on a catalyst like this, it it's not about the pattern. The position is the point being in before the news sized appropriately so the swings don't knock you out. Don't go 200% long in this thing. If that approval comes through, it would not be a surprise to see this stock jump to 50, 60 and beyond in a quick hurry. And although this one sounds bulletproof, it's not. Okay. The FDA does not always say yes. They can delay the date. They can ask for more data. They can flat out reject it. If they do, it would not be good. That's kind of the nature of the bet.
But this July decision is for what's called accelerated approval. Approval based on that protein data. Now, the full final approval depends on a second batch of kidney function data coming later this year with a complete signoff potentially in 2027. So, a yes in July in 2 weeks is the first step toward that. Now, do I have any intention of holding this into 2027? I do not. I am only looking to play the short-term news event. I am trading the catalyst. I am not making a long-term investment. And there is a difference.
But the reason I like it is that the science has already cleared the hard bar. The trial worked. Wall Street's already got it a strong buy and there is a hard date on the calendar two weeks out. That's about as clean of a catalyst setup as you're going to find. So far, batting a thousand on these FDA decision stocks. OTLK has been an absolute monster and I see your comments. I know a lot of you guys have made a ton of money on that stock. Nothing makes me happier than seeing it. Please keep giving me feedback and let's see if we can go two for two on this one.
All right, folks. If you like this video, don't forget to subscribe to the channel. And again, that $5 Black Ops membership is still available. Five bucks whole year, live one-hour sessions with me every week, all year, my newsletter, indicators, bonus reports, a ton of stuff. So, click the link in the description, scan the QR code in the corner of the screen, or go to tradewithrose.com to get signed.