Transcription
$1 away from all-time highs. If someone told me that was going to happen a week ago, nobody would believe me. But yet, here we are. And we can see there's your at the high level right there. It's actually 69541 is the exact number. And this is where we closed.
I'm going to take all this off. And I want to show you something on the NDX before we even jump into this and show you what's exactly breaking out. If I go to the NDX and I just drop it like it's hot like the kids say here and you look at where we're at, there's one big complaint that I keep hearing about all this and I want to dive into that before we get into anything else because no one cares about this complaint and it doesn't make any difference. 27.5% of you do not subscribe that watch these regularly. I'm just pointing out the facts. These are all linked together. Also, I purposely do not run ads in the middle of these and it's very helpful when you like, subscribe, and click all notifications because it helps counterbalance the algo.
All right, this is the thing you guys have to get past. One thing you have to get past this com I keep hearing it's light volume. Here's the ND. I don't really view this as overly light volume. And then people will go, what about the S&P? Well, that's light volume. What are you looking at when you're saying it's light volume? Are you looking at the spy when you're saying it's late volume? Are you looking at the Q's when you're saying it's late volume? Because you know that's not the market, right? So NDX is the market is the index. S&P is the market is the index. This is an ETF. Okay? So if your volume So please listen to this. If your volume and you're like, well the SPY ETF volume is really light today or the QQQ's that volume is really light today. Nobody cares. like that's what what's that gonna get you a button? No one cares about that.
So, what you need to do is you need to make sure that when you're saying these statements, because I'm reading them in the comments, and I love your comments, especially when you tell me that I'm crazy for thinking the market's going higher today. But here's the thing about it. You have to look at the actual underlying asset class, not a derivative. So, when you look at the NDX, you're looking at the NDX. You're looking at the NASDAQ 100. When you're looking at the Q's, you're looking at an ETF, which is a derivative of the actual underlying index. Saw a lot of this the other day, and it's one thing that you guys just go and check the index. You I know, I get it, you're not going to trade that, and you're not looking at trading futures. A lot of people that watch these videos really don't trade futures, so they go and look at this. But when you see these kinds of liquidity grabs, guys, this doesn't just kind of happen. It's happening because your earnings are fantastic. The earnings out there are absolutely fantastic. they've been we've never had an earnings problem. What we have is we have a liquidity problem when people get concerned about what they see going on in the market.
So now what we have is we have a market that is becoming what? More accustomed to the fact that you're going to have higher oil prices, right? Because oil, no matter what we say about it, it did stay higher. It has. And I always show you guys these little tricks and tips. Follow me for more tricks and tips. So when you drop the anchored VWAP from here on February and you go to the end of February, that's going to tell you right where oil ended right on the average oil ended at that 6417. Take it to March. Drop it like it's hot. The kids do still say that. And if we go to there it is. And we come to here we're going to get $89. So we know that crude oil is higher and we know that's going to impact the consumer. Same thing as like when we do it with gasoline futures. We can do the same exact thing and see where the average price on gas is. And we'll just do it very quickly just to show you this because PPI came out today. And what was so interesting about PPI is it was predicted to be a lot higher than it came out. And then what we saw was we saw people kind of disappointed by that. But if we look here at the end of February, you're going to get 220. What's the average on gas futures? Doesn't mean that that's what we're paying, right? We all know that that's not what we're all paying. I went and got gas the other day in uh Miami, which is where I'm at. And if it takes it to here, that's going to take you to what? Roughly a 29% increase month overmonth in gas.
So when we're seeing this, we're seeing the prices. That's like when a couple people in the community were asking me today about like, well, what about the XLY names? I don't know how that's going to impact the XLY names. I know that when you go and fill up your gas tank, I was six bucks here and I don't have to fill up that much cuz I walk and I don't drive very far. But six bucks, if you're doing that every week and you were doing, you know, three or cuz it never just goes up 28%. Right, for some strange reason, even though they tell us that that's all it's going up. So, what tends to happen here is that does eat into the consumer. So, yeah, maybe you don't spend as much. I don't know how that's going to play out. Here's what I do think super interesting today. We're back above the 55 for the consumer. So, the consumer is looking at this and saying, "Hey, well, that's what they're thinking. I'll leave it at that." You can always look at needs versus wants. So, I don't know what the consumer is thinking. How am I going to know? I'm not buying new jeans. What are you guys? But if you look at the wants versus the needs, right? So, these are your needs. XLP, these are your wants. And so, that this when you start to see it sell like this, that means what? It means they're buying their wants more than they're buying their needs. It's a really simple way of looking at the world. And you can, you know, not use this, but it's very clean to see that and go, "Oh, they are buying more discretion than they are buying other items." And when you see that, it's usually a riskon kind of trade. The other one that I've given you guys in the past that's a really good risk on kind of trade is Q's versus SPY. And we looked at this one yesterday and I said whenever you start seeing the Q's breaking out versus the spy, it's risk on. We're seeing that as I always find super easy things like this, just demarcation lines like really helpful. You know, when I look at like, oh, wants versus needs, this makes a lot of sense. Let's look at the world that way. it it's way easier for me personally to just kind of look at things like that and it just it tends to work for me.
A couple things that I would go over first and foremost with what we're seeing out there. I'm going to just flip to this because everyone's going to be looking at Micron today and what's happening and now they're going to be looking at the all-time high closes. And I think that there's a couple things to go over here with Micron or even with SanDisk and what you're going to be facing tomorrow because everyone's watching the socks. You have to realize that the socks is running because ASML has earnings tonight and like 99% of people are going to miss this. We were in and out of Micron all day today and it just turned into such a great trade, you know. Give me a sec here. Hold on. I hate saying that I do trades and then like not showing the actual trade. So there's the trade and actually even when it went off and I'll show you why we actually did this so that you can do these for yourself. But what I was looking at this morning on this when we did that was real simple. You see this bar right here? So that bar right there. And then when you go to this bar, I'm just going to drop it here like it's hot, right? And I'm going to keep saying that, guys, until you tell me that it's not cool. And then you're going to have to tell me what the cools kids are actually saying. See how this next bar didn't close under that 50% line and then this next bar broke out? That's called a three bar pattern. And we saw that setting up on the hourly. So as soon as we saw that start to set up, it gave us the opportunity. So, it's one and then you're not closing under the 50% of that bar and then the next one, right? You can see where we closed and then that one breaks out above it. It's called the three bar pattern. So, when we're in there during the day and I'm just posting cuz I mean I trade all day long, but I put this out there. And so, what it shows you and see if I can get that right there. You can kind of see it. I mean, zoom in if you want. If you don't, then don't. But you kind of get where I'm going with it. And the purpose of that is right here. It gave us the indication. You put the trade on and then you go from there. And it was hard because actually at one point it looked like it was going to fail. It did not have that follow-through at all. And we know how junky the market's been lately, the volatility associated with it. But once it went, that was it. It never really gave us an indication. You had some weird news today that took the whole market down. We'll talk about that. But this is where you're at right now. And this is what you have. You have a market that absolutely ripped higher at the end of the day. If we go and take a look at the volume on it, huge volume. And we're seeing that. You're also seeing it with Nvidia, which I think is really important to point some things out here with Nvidia. Here's earnings. And what you had was straight down, never came back until the day before earnings, and then what you did was gap down, straight down. Why would you be doing this now? And the question is because of this company coming out with earnings.
So the reason for this, and just side note, you closed higher than both of these. And also these options out there, these like daily options are really mispriced the way they're doing some of this stuff. But I want to get to this cuz I think this is super important. ASML is coming out with earnings. When they come out with earnings, the majority of us on the East Coast will be asleep because they do it at 1:00 in the morning. ASML makes the lithography machines that actually you need to make all these chips. Someone will say, "No, you don't need it for these special chips. You need it for the majority of chips. All the cool chips you need it for." So Micron will put orders in to make Nvidia chips. you need these things. So, what happens with this is that you need these machines. We're running into ASML's earnings. And I think that this is really interesting because also Taiwan Semi comes out the next night. So, it's usually ASML will run up, then it's the bookings that you have to look at. So, tomorrow at 9:00 in the morning, Eastern Standard Time, you'll get the conference call, but tonight you'll get the earnings. This is really very important because that bookings is going to show the amount of demand that we actually have. So, this is something that, you know, when we bought this in the room, we did had a great trade on it, blew it out. The call wall was 450. So, I got out and then I did another trade on it here into the close. And I'll show you this one because this one was the I love days like this cuz it's just so much fun. See that right there? It's called a dragonfly. And the reason it's called the dragonfly is just because it closes at the high and the open, the high and the close are supposed to be the same bar. Dragon flies are extremely rare, but when you get close to one and then you flip it, you pay attention and then this becomes your stop. And you'll see you never had to worry. Like it was never even a thing. And they when they happen at like the top of a chart, you really pay attention. Why? Cuz they're liquidity grabs, especially when you see something like this. So this told us that we had the opportunity to break through. We did and then we pushed in the close. So this gave us another opportunity in there as well.
Side note, while I'm thinking about it, if you're trying to get into the community, a bunch of emails and invites will go out tonight. The time from 5 days is now cut to 3 days. So once you get the email, you have 72 hours to respond to it. Just check your email if you are. And if you're trying to get in and you're not on the wait list, link will be in description and I also pin it in the comments.
So if we look at how Micron's acting and we obviously saw SanDisk and I want to touch base on this too. You didn't close at the high, but you didn't close under the 50% line. So, you're still okay here because you always want to make sure with these bars that we just take a look and say, did we close under 50%. No, even Intel, I tried shorting this today and it didn't work. But I want to just point this out. If I go take a look at Intel and I drop it, you did close above the 50%. So, you know, you always watch that. They I call it a demarcation line. Net sellers versus net buyers. Other people will call it something different. It's relatively simple. Don't overthink it. But what does all this mean and why do you care about this? Well, names like Lamb Research are hitting all-time highs going into this KAC all-time highs, AAD, right? And they're struggling because they don't benefit as much. The one that benefits the most from ND is going to be Lamb. And I'm talking fast because I have to wrap this up and get to a couple things here. But understand ASML is going to move the market. After you have that, then up the bat next is going to be Taiwan Semi and they're going to come out and they're going to say Thursday, but it's really Wednesday night and that's going to be the same night that you have Netflix. So Netflix is tomorrow night as I believe it's tomorrow. No, Thursday. Okay, good. So we have two days to prepare for that one. And you saw a lot of buying going into that into the close. But make no mistake, the NASDAQ is going to move tomorrow. Not because of everything that happens with, you know, wash on, wash off, whatever the heck you want to refer to the straight as. We're on, we're off, we're doing this, we have a blockade, we don't have a blockade, we have a partial blockade, all that stuff doesn't matter. What's going to matter is what ASML does. We're getting into an earnings driven market. And I'm going to preface this again very quickly by explaining that crude is not back to where the market was. So crude is not the issue anymore. It's an earnings driven market. And we want to understand that when we look at the breadth of the market, it's fantastic. And I think that when people start understanding this, like yes, the five days backing off, but the 20 and the 50, when we look at those, yeah, we have plenty of room to run still. But here's what they're doing so fantastic is that why the five's dropping down, the 20 and the 50 and the and the 200, they're rotating and going higher, which means you're rotating through sectors. And a lot of people aren't getting that. They're just like, "Oh, well, this the software is not rallying. Therefore, because software is not rallying, the NASDAQ can't possibly hold." Names like Autodesk, Adobe, these names got smoked today. And the reason they got smoked was because Anthropic's coming out fig. They're coming out with a new product, right? Or an updated product. But everyone seems to have forgotten about biotech. And biotech is a pretty big chunk of the NDX. So you're you have these names, RVMD. We had some guys kill it on this trade today. I didn't do this when I was too busy, you know, reading the tea leaves and semiconductors. But things like RVMD, like these names, when they're coming out with these drugs, they're spot getting a lot of attention on these names. So sire, that was another one that came out with some upgrades on that. These names always scare me when they have zero revenue because, you know, there's just a secondary waiting to hit you over the head. Matumbbo you. So I get a little concerned of those. But you have other drivers out there and the world does not care about oil with a biotech company and that's a breakout. And the other thing that I would just point out is spend some time going through charts yourself and start looking at how many from November to October, November back here were consolidating and breaking out. Not just in tech. Yeah, there's a lot of those. There's a lot of names like NBIS that are breaking out after being in these bases. CLS is another one you crazy kids like to play. And also the other side of this is companies are spending money meaning GAT was in a bidding war between two companies and it looks like at the time of recording this it looks like >> Wall Street investors learn to live with >> it looks like you know Amazon's going to win this one for now but you don't know if Elon comes back and bids on it as well again because Elon was interested so that's super interesting and then we started to look at buying like as these other names the issue with this is that if you know Blue Origin buys that company. Is Elon going to go out there and purchase this after already making acquisitions on Starlink? Probably not. So, that's why AS is coming in so hard the way it is. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. It just is. They also have a launch this week and then we will have we like to refer to as the unfolding of another Bluebird. Whatever they do up there, they do a whole video on it. But when we see that kind of thing, just want to pay attention to it. Do I think it'll catch? Yeah, I think eventually it'll catch. Usually have two days of this kind of stuff, right? You have the hopers and the dreamers. I'll just hold it, right? And then they get their wake up call tomorrow where they're eating hot pockets. You know, you don't need to chase things that look that ugly that are on a neckline like that. That's what you call gross. So, just allow it to reset and then come and take a look at it. Right? The market's not going anywhere. What's the hurry? Where you going? So, again, the thing you want to watch tomorrow and the thing I want you to to leave with tonight is you want to be prepared tomorrow for ASML on that 9:00 a.m. conference call because that's going to be your driving force. Earnings are going to rule everything around me right