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Hello, and welcome everyone to our in-depth analysis today. If I were to compare the gold market right now, I think it's like standing and watching the weather forecast. >> Exactly like that. >> Everyone knows that the atmosphere around us is about to change, the sky is starting to get cloudy. But most people don't know whether what's coming is just a refreshing spring breeze or a destructive hurricane. >> Yes, and that's our mission today. >> That's right. And if we look at the institutional capital flows, or what we call Smart Money, the signals from our database are very clear that a big storm is quietly brewing in the background. >> Absolutely. The most important thing to read this game correctly is to stop listening to the noise on social media or missing the daily headlines for now. >> Uh-huh. Why is that? >> Because that news only tells us what happened yesterday. But if we want to know where the storm is heading, we need to look at the actual money flow. The charts and data from major global institutions cannot lie. It's the action happening right this second. >> Then let's start unraveling it. If we say this is a storm, it must have a point of origin, right? >> Absolutely. >> What's interesting from this data is that the very first ripple didn't come from the general inflation numbers we complain about when we buy groceries. It came from very specific global political events. >> Hmm, going back to February 2022, right? >> Yes, it was a turning point that made the financial world no longer the same. >> At that time, the United States decided to use the dollar as a weapon, or what the data calls the "weaponization of the dollar." >> Uh-huh. >> By ordering the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. Yes. Imagine this: these reserves are billions and tens of billions of dollars that a country has saved up in the global banking system, but suddenly, a button is pressed, and they're frozen and unusable. >> Wait a minute. From the perspective of other countries watching, it's like waking up and finding that the savings in their own safe are now held by someone else. >> Exactly. This isn't just a normal sanction; it sent shockwaves around the world. >> If Russia, as large as it is, can be switched off overnight, what about other countries? >> That's it. It's a severe national confidence crisis. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world looked at each other and thought the same thing: if they can do it to Russia, they can do it to us too. >> Hey, and what happened next? >> These institutions started to quietly move, selling off US government bonds and dollar-denominated assets. >> Wait, and where did all that massive amount of money go? If they don't trust the dollar, why didn't they buy crypto like Bitcoin or go and buy up big tech stocks? >> Oh, because the scale of the money is vastly different. The reserves of a nation are too enormous to be put into assets with high volatility or insufficient liquidity. >> Oh. Why go back to ancient assets like gold? >> Because gold is the only neutral asset in the world. It's not printed or controlled by any government. No one can press an electronic button to freeze gold bars stored in your country's vault. >> Hmm, that's true. >> The numbers are very clear. Central banks have been buying an average of over 1,000 tons of gold per year for three consecutive years. >> Wow, 1,000 tons a year? >> Yes, which is double the amount they used to buy normally. >> But wait, I have a slight objection here. If I recall correctly from basic economics textbooks, gold is an asset that doesn't yield interest, right? >> Yes, it doesn't yield interest. >> Now, during the same period, the US Federal Reserve, or the Fed, has been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation. According to theory, when interest rates are high, people should sell gold and hold cash or bonds to earn interest. >> Uh-huh. That's a very good question. >> But the price of gold has been rising against interest rates, which is clearly abnormal. >> Hmm, this abnormality is the most crucial point. It's telling us that the traditional economic relationships in textbooks have broken down. >> What do you mean? >> The fact that gold prices are rising even as interest rates are soaring means this isn't the sentiment of the general market or retail investors speculating. >> Oh, then what is it? >> It's global institutions making an orderly retreat. They are slowly buying, slowly rebalancing their portfolios to quietly head for the exit. >> Ah, like getting out before anyone shouts "fire" on the media, right? >> Exactly, precisely. >> Okay, the picture is becoming clearer. Large global capital is flowing out of paper and into tangible assets due to trust issues. But there's another equally shocking half of this equation. >> What happened within the US system itself, right? >> Yes. The data indicates that the Fed is facing a mathematical problem with no solution. >> Hmm, it's a very headache-inducing math problem. Because right now, the Fed is in a state of massive losses. Consider this: since 2022, the Fed has already lost approximately $245 billion. >> Unbelievable. A central bank with a money printer in its hands is losing money? >> Yes, it's a real loss. >> How does the mechanism work? Why is it losing so much? >> The mechanism is like this: back during the COVID crisis, the Fed printed a massive amount of money and used it to buy government bonds to support the economy. Bonds at that time yielded extremely low returns. >> Uh-huh. Let's say the Fed received interest income of only 1-2%. >> Yes. But at the same time, the Fed has a policy of paying interest to commercial banks that deposit their reserves. Currently, the Fed has to pay this interest at over 4%. >> Oh, I understand. To make it clear, it's like the Fed is ordering expensive champagne to entertain commercial banks without limit. >> Hmm, I can picture it. >> But it itself has income from its work that's only enough to buy a can of beer. The expenses are jumping much higher than the income, so the accounts must be in the red. >> Exactly. If this were a regular company in the stock market, it would have declared bankruptcy long ago. >> Yes, if it were private, it would be over. But when it's a central bank, it can't declare bankruptcy. How do they do it? >> So, an accounting method called "Asset Forfeiture" or "Assets Held for Sale" is used. To explain the mechanism simply, it's about sweeping all the losses under the rug. >> Oh, just sweeping them under the rug? >> Yes. And telling themselves from an accounting perspective that if they become profitable in the future, they'll offset these figures. It's like magically turning losses into assets. >> Wow, that's accounting magic that ordinary people can't do. And the point is, they're not just hiding the problem. The data indicates they're secretly turning on the money printer, right? >> Yes. There's over $228 billion in a fund with a fancy name, "Bank Term Funding Program," meant to support banks. >> Uh-huh. >> And more importantly, the Fed is secretly buying Treasury bills at about $40 billion per month, using the technical term "Reserve Management Purchase." >> "Reserve Management Purchase" sounds very academic, but if translated into plain language, it's printing money out of thin air to avoid the word "printing money," isn't it? >> It's undeniable that it is printing money. And what's concerning is that in the future, the situation is likely to become even more contradictory. >> How so? >> The new Fed Chair, Mr. Jerome Powell, who will start in May next year, has conflicting policy goals mathematically. He wants to lower interest rates while simultaneously shrinking the balance sheet. >> Lowering interest rates while withdrawing money from the system. Why is it said that this is mathematically impossible? >> Because there are $10-12 trillion in bonds maturing, and the government needs to find money to cover them. >> Oh, so they need to borrow new debt to pay off old debt? >> Yes. And if the Fed says it will shrink the balance sheet, it means the Fed will no longer be the one buying those bonds. The question is, who will be willing to buy over $10 trillion in debt at a time when they are trying to keep interest rates low? >> Hmm, no one wants to tie up their money in something with low returns. So, it means in the end, they'll have to print money to buy it themselves. >> That's right. And it's not just government debt; there's another time bomb hidden in the private sector. >> What time bomb? >> The crisis from private equity and private credit. Currently, there are companies with unsold inventory worth nearly $4 trillion. $4 trillion. Wow. And what else? >> And there are what the industry calls "zombie funds." These are funds that are over 10 years old but still haven't been able to sell their companies, amounting to about $440 billion. >> Wait, explain "zombie funds." These are funds stuck in the current high-interest rate environment, borrowing money to pay interest day by day, is that right? >> Exactly. They're not dead, but they can't move forward. They're just waiting for the Fed to surrender and inject liquidity again. >> Wow, listening to this, the current economic structure isn't just fragile; it's like we're standing on a mountain of gunpowder. >> Hmm, that's a very vivid comparison. >> And if the situations in Phase 1 and Phase 2 proceed without reform, the data suggests it will lead to an end called Phase 3. What will that look like? >> Phase 3 is the debt spiral of the bond market, or the "Death Spiral." The mechanism works like this: when inflation is high, interest rates must also be high. >> Uh-huh. The government faces enormous interest burdens. >> Yes. Did you know that this year alone, interest payments alone for the US have exceeded $1 trillion? >> $1 trillion just for interest? >> Yes, purely interest. >> Not the principal, not for building roads, schools, or any new welfare programs. Just paying interest to creditors? >> It sounds shocking, doesn't it? And when interest rates balloon like this, what does the government do? The government has to issue more bonds to pay the interest. >> The more they borrow, the higher interest rates in the market are pushed. >> That's right. Until finally, banks will have to buy all those unwanted debts. >> And the result is that paper currency depreciates severely, and the price of gold will skyrocket in a straight line, right? >> Exactly, like lessons from Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, or even the US in the 70s. >> Now, what's scary is that this cycle hasn't fully arrived yet, but there are catalysts that could make it explode faster. If we have a pile of gunpowder waiting to explode, the catalyst would be a match, right? >> Hmm, yes. Just one match. >> What is the match we are watching for? >> Data from the past 50 years clearly shows that every time there's an oil crisis, whether it was in 1973, 1979, or 1991, the price of gold would surge by 15% to over 100% within 3-12 months. >> Why do oil crises cause gold to rise so sharply? >> Because oil is the cost of everything. When oil prices rise, inflation soars, and people abandon paper assets and run to gold. Now, the strategic points we need to watch are not just the Middle East like the Strait of Hormuz. >> Where else? >> The Caribbean too. Both the Gulf of America and the Gulf of Mexico, which are major energy transport routes. If there's even a slight problem, the death spiral will accelerate. >> Okay, the macroeconomic picture looks extremely tense. Where should the money flow? The data points to one thing that I find incredibly interesting: the conflict in the gold mining market. >> Uh-huh. The gold mining market is very interesting. >> Everyone knows that the price of gold bars has more than doubled, but surprisingly, the money of general retail investors has flowed out of gold mining ETFs, with the number of shares decreasing by 20% to 33%. >> Yes, it's a strange contradiction because most people are rushing to buy tech stocks like Nvidia. >> Oh, they're all lining up to buy the new VR headsets. >> Hmm, you can compare it like that. They're missing out on the mathematical multiplier effect, or the leverage, of mining companies. >> Wait, let me try to explain with clear numbers. Suppose a mine has a gold extraction cost of $1,900. If the gold price in the market is $2,000, the profit is $100 per ounce, right? >> Yes, $100. Now, if the gold price increases by just 50% to $3,000, the cost doesn't increase. The profit will jump from $100 to $1,100 per ounce. >> That's it. The profit jumps 11 times. >> Hey, 11 times is like finding a Willy Wonka golden ticket on sale at a stall. >> Exactly. This is the hidden advantage. But there's an important condition. >> What condition? >> You need to understand risk management. You need to know which mines have good cash flow, not just buy any mine. >> That's clear. Now let's summarize why this is important. I believe that having true financial knowledge means following the money of large institutions, not following daily news trends, right? >> Absolutely, absolutely correct. >> And what safe-haven assets does the data recommend that tend to fare well in times of crisis like this? The assets mentioned are gold, gold mining stocks, silver, large energy company stocks, defense industry stocks, and utility stocks. These are very resilient in times of crisis. >> That's a very comprehensive preparation. But before we end this conversation, I have an idea that popped into my head and I'd like to invite everyone to think about it further. >> Oh, that's interesting. What is it? >> Throughout our conversation, we've seen that the world is moving towards a point where national central banks no longer trust each other's paper currencies and are competing to hoard real assets like gold. >> Uh-huh. >> Imagine this: if one day the international trade system refuses to use fiat currency and demands payment only in hard assets, how drastically will the pricing structure of everyday consumer goods change? >> Wow, that's a very thought-provoking closing question. If that day truly comes, the value of the things we use every day will be reassessed. >> Yes. The numbers in your bank account that you see every day might just be an illusion. I leave this for everyone to ponder. For today's in-depth analysis, thank you for following. Goodbye. >> Goodbye.