Lesson 30 Price Action

So today, we will be going over the price action of the US dollar, well, the Forex market on a whole, right? Which is controlled by the Euro Dollar. So today, as you guys can see, we had sequential SMT at these highs, right? And remember, whenever we are looking for sequential SMT or ORX, right, we need to at least see it with, you know, within the weekly cycle. So it must be between two days, right?

And as we, you know, touch upon the doubling theory, right, you know, whenever we get to that, which is, you know, more in-depth than quarterly theory, because, to be honest with you, quarterly theory is just like a way for you guys to, you know, easily understand, you know, what, you know, this is what price actually does and which reference points price usually goes to before reversals, right? So quarterly theory was literally me trying to, you know, figure out a way in which I could get all of you, you know, everyone to just, you know, think that, or know that price is not only price is fractal, but time is actually fractal as well, right? So all of that, right, was to lead you guys to the doubling theory, which we will be speaking about next month in more detail, of course.

So when you are looking at the weekly cycle, right, it's not just Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, right? If you watch my YouTube video, then you'll just believe that, okay, don't trade on Friday, leave Friday alone, or don't refer to Friday's data at all, or just use the daily cycle whenever we get to Friday. No, right? You need the five days, right? So Monday will will reach back for the high of Friday or low of Friday, which is where you would look for a crack in correlation of, you know, any sort, mostly see SMT, right? And Tuesday will reach for Monday's data, reach back for Monday's data, right? So we're looking back, you know, one quarter, right? That's what we're looking at with, you know, addition of Friday, which is just, you know, basically by itself, right? Wednesday will look back and reach for data from Tuesday. So it will look for Tuesday's high or low. If it can't get that, then price will usually spool on the within the lower time frame cycles and search for a session's higher low. Thursday will usually look back for Wednesday, right? Wednesday's high or low. And now we're back at Friday again. Do you see how it just goes around and around and around, right? That's what it does. It has no end, per se. It just switches the quarters which it reverses from, right? And Friday will look back for Thursday's higher low. So today, we could see that, well, this week, we saw that twice already, right? Within the Forex market, right? So I, this was [Music] the sequential SMT which propelled price higher for the US Dollar on Monday, right? This is the reason why Monday expanded, right? And I believe that we, well, I posted about it, but I didn't have time to talk about it because we didn't have a scheduled live streamers yet. All right? So we had price go higher, and what usually happens is we have SMT, sequential SMT, and then after that, we have displacement, right? Usually, whenever you have, you know, displacement within at least two asset classes, but, you know, one, you should see displacement that is a cracking correlation, right? So you have displacement here, displacement here, and here, right? You don't have displacement. Let me use this, right? So here, on this candle for the Great British Pound, there is no displacement, right? No fair value gap, right? Instead of we of us having a SMT fill, right? Here, which you guys should know already what that is, is all right? It's basically whereas we would have a fair value being filled here, but one not being filled in another correlated asset class, right? So on this candle right here, you can see the Euro failing to fill this gap, whereas on this candle right here, there was no gap for it to, you know, reflect upon. So this was also a cracking correlation as well, right? But just due to the fact that we had sequential SMT here, right? And we had a lower time frame sequential here as well, right? We could expect price to expand, whereas here, we expected price to reverse, right? Also note that whenever expansion and reversal are two different things, right? Expansion and reversal are not the same, right? Expansion happens whenever there is a failure swing or price fails to take out a low. So current here, where you see price fail to take a low out, that's expansion. When price takes a high out, that's reversal. And by me giving you this information right now, right? Me stating that within the Euro, we had reversal, and within the dollar, we just had expansion. Expansion and reversal must occur at the same time, but in different asset classes, right? That's what we call a cracking correlation. So we want to see the dollar, right here, expand at the same time that the Euro reverses, right here. You can see that the pound expanded as well, right? To the downside. This wasn't reversal, this was expansion. You understand? Also, at these highs, which was today, right? We had the dollar reversing, right? This was reversal. Traded above Tuesday's high, right? Created sequential SMT. Then we had the Euro failing to break below this low, right here, creating sequential SMT again. Then we had the Great British Pound failing to break below this low, which also created sequential SMT, right? So for the Forex market, well, for basically, you know, most markets, right? The weekly cycle is the go-to, and this is what you would use for, you know, finding intra-week setups, right? Which is a, you know, mixture of day trading and swing trading. So again, at these highs in the dollar, pay attention, right? Right? We did not break above this high here, right? This was a failure swing, right? So here, right, this is high probability, why? Because we had a higher time, higher time frame cycles reversal, which is what happens when price breaks above a high or breaks below a low and it and runs in the opposite direction, right? That's what reversal. If you ever hear me talking about reversal, that's what I mean. When I talk about expansion, I'm talking about something like this, when price fails to below a low or fails to break above a high and drops or vice versa, right? So whenever some people won't get this, but whenever this is high probability, whenever you have this happening in at least one asset class, right? If it's two, it's better. If you're looking at three, whenever you have price break above a high causing sequential SMT, hope you're writing it down on a higher time frame cycle, which is followed by the opposite of what happened on the higher time frame cycle on the lower time frame cycle, then you have a high probability trade. Price will usually reverse at that time, right? So I, I'll try to explain again here on the within the weekly cycle, price broke above this high, right? There was sequential SMT, you get that? But here, we will drop down to the daily cycle, right? We had price fail to break above the London session's high during New York, but it did break below the London's low during New York in the Great British Pound. So due to the fact, right, that the higher time frame cycle was turtle soup, but the lower time frame cycle was failure swing, that's another cracking correlation that, listen, it does not matter, you know, if this video goes on, no, they won't understand, right? That's a cracking correlation between SMT, between sequential SMT, right? It has everything to do with quarterly theory and time, and it's just simply amazing, right? So now we look at this, but in the pound, right? Which is why I was interested in the pound, right? Today. So here we have the pound making a failure swing, which caused a higher time frame cycle sequential SMT. You're like, where does he get this from? Gems, but right after there was a failure swing on the higher time frame cycle, what what happened to the lower? On the lower time frame cycle, there was, there was T and this turtle soup called sequential SMT, right? This turtle soup caused sequential SMT. This don't make this go over your head, right? This, right, do don't make this go over your head at all. And we had, right here, we had FOMC being released, right? Why could you expect this to go higher? Because the price action already indicated that, you know, price was supposed to head higher. What would cause price to, you know, reverse? What sequential SMT? That's what you're supposed to be looking for. So if there's no sequential SMT, you basically should not be doing anything at all. Like, for example, right now, there is no sequential SMT. The move's done for the day. There's nothing else right now to do. So if you're going in right now, I want to buy below this low. There's nothing there to do, right? There's no sequential SMT. Even if there was a lower time frame cycle sequential SMT, there is no higher time frame cycle sequential SMT, right? So here, right, is where you could, for example, find a model, right? So here you can see that again, say it again, there's sequential SMT, right? Let me delete this. You could use the open of, you know, the lowest close within the higher time frame cycle, right? So you would be looking at the one-hour time frame, but you would be, you know, taking the setup on the 15-minute time frame once price trades below this low and there is no indication of price going higher here or lower here, right? So it will look something like this, right? But there, there are different ways, right? That you could, you could even buy after price trades above this high and put your stop here, then you, you still be good, right? So the next time there's FOMC, right? We're going to go back to to, you know, the information that we use here, because this is usually, you know, something that happens, right? Because for SMT to be useful, right? There we must have an injection of volatility. So prior to FOMC, right? We usually have something like this, if you understand what I'm saying, right? So here, when we saw price drop, right? And then just expand, why did that happen? Because the entries were already there. All FOMC did was push price, you know, higher or give price more volatility, made price more volatile, right? In this direction that it was already expected to go into, right? So here, right, this would, of all of the SMTs, right? We're looking at this would probably be the least probable trade to take. Why? There is no cracking correlation between sequential SMT here. So there is cracking correlation, and there is a cracking correlation between sequential SMT. The cracking correlation between sequential SMT, you can find out by just looking at one asset class, right? So again, for example, the Great British Pound making a failure swing, right? On the one-hour time frame, while you're looking at the weekly cycle, which is comprised of days followed by the daily cycle, right? Making turtle soup, which causes sequential SMT. I will touch up on these things again, but this, right here, right? It's, it's really good, right? So it's not like, well, it is, it's really good. It's like what I, it would probably be something like the, the better version of whatever Michael says the Silver Bullet is, right? So even like whenever I'm, which I'm planning to participate in Robins, right? This is probably what I'm going to be using, and a lot of you guys will, you know, become actually very good just with like this alone, the cracking correlation between sequential SMT. So the thing is, which makes this so amazing, right? Is, well, amazing for me. For you to understand what a cracking correlation between sequential SMT is, you must know what sequential SMT is, right? And for you to know how SMT, you know, operates, how it works, you must know what quarterly theory is. So you must understand time as well. And this is why there was the YouTube video that I put out. So, okay, let, you know, anyone that's going to be interested in joining the group, they can be watching this and, you know, just understanding time because there's nothing here that's like really, really amazing that you can just go in and find every single day, you know, with a very high hit rate. But this is, you know, what Michael's one shot one kill model should be, right? And it's just, it's not like completely flawless. Nothing is flawless, right? But it gives you good moves, and it happened twice this week, right? It happened on Monday, and it ended up happening Wednesday again. Imagine if you were able to, you know, capitulate on these things. Would be good. This week, so far, you know, the US dollar, pound, Euro USD, you know, we delivered cleaner price action than the Forex, not the Forex, the Futures market. And we're going to talk about the Futures market soon. And then we're going to, you know, look at Bitcoin soon, you know, why Bitcoin usually reverses, you know, ways that it reverses, and stuff that that's just look for in the future, right? But the, but one shot one kill is like, you know, which is the weekly time frame, then you look at the daily, no, the weekly cycle, then you look at the daily cycle, right? That's like the, you know, my favorite thing to do. It's not like whenever I'm scalping or, you know, I record trade scalp, scalping, or whatever that is, it's just, it's just me, you know, showing off. Yeah, that's just about like, you know, to be practical, this is like the best thing that you can do, right? And you should like be looking forward to the future by, you know, knowing this already, right? So, and imagine if, right, right here, we had price trading above this sign, there's a higher time frame fair value gap, right here, right? There was not a fill here at all, right? It's just a wick, and things like that will make this more high probability, right? Even if afterwards, you just wait for displacement, and when there's displacement, you just sell here, put your stop here, look what will happen, right? And we'll be looking for this more, you know, over the coming months, right? So it'll just be us basically for like maybe a month or two, so you, you know, understand, you begin to do it on your own, right? You, you're focusing on the previous daily highs, that's what you'll be doing, right? And then whenever that high gets breached or low gets breached, then you'll look if there's sequential SMT. If there is sequential SMT, then you'll wait for that set thing to happen to happen between the sessions, right? To like me, this is just me like trying to, you know, give you something that works, right? More times than not, and even though it's way, it's more than I'd say 75%, you know, 80%, I don't want to like put your hopes up too much, but it is really accurate, right? Right? You don't even need 50% to make money, that's the funny thing. And this use you multiple hours, right? And you don't have to be staring at a one-minute time frame chart. It's really accurate. It is, right? It's not just a SMT, then lower time SMT. It's sequential SMT and then cracking correlation between the sequential SMT. If you understand, which you will, hopefully you're taking notes now. We'll look at the Futures markets.

So here we have price trading above this high, right? Which was the high off last week. Here as well, we have price trading above the high of last week. And here we have price trading above the highest, the high of last week again. Is there sequential SMT here? No. This is not sequential SMT. There's no SMT right here between this high, right? Between last week's price action and this week's price action, there's not. So we would have to wait for, you know, at least sequential SMT on [Music] the one time frame, right? Within the weekly cycle. And then what would confirm that sequential SMT on the daily within the daily cycle? And then we would like go in and find something to do. But until there is, there is SMT. If there's no SMT, we do nothing. My bad, my bad guys. Here we go. So yeah, I don't know, man. Dow just looked looks like this too. So same thing. So there is no sequential SMT here, right? But there is something I want you guys to study right here, right? You guys can see that, right? This gap was untouched. Price did not trade within this gap at all. Right here, here, the gap was untouched, but price traded within the wick here. Price did not do so, right? And we will look at, you know, this more like within Bitcoin soon. Just as so here, right? Price did not trade below the lowest close, right here, but here it did. Did here as well. So just something for you to study, right? Because I've been talking for a long time now, and then I'm going to get to more important stuff now. Also, right? I've always heard people, you know, be like, um, can you split the quarters of the year in quarters? It's possible, right? So within the quarters of the year, like, for example, Q1 of the year, which is three months, how do you do that? A quarter would be like, would be 3.25 weeks, right? So wherever you are, you, you just basically look back three weeks, right? And then we could see that, in fact, at the moment, right? We could see price taking out this high, which is the highest high in the last 3.25 weeks. But here it did not. Here it took out all those highs, right? And we are overextended right now. Here, you guys can see that, you know, we don't like seeing gaps like this. We like seeing them filled, right? But what would convince us that price would be going lower? Also, there's another thing that, no, I don't even know I should talk about this right now. So leave that. What would convince us to go lower? What you already know CT, but it has to be within the at least the weekly cycle, right? So the weekly cycle usually kicks things into action, right? Usually whenever there's a monthly, and then there's the weekly, then you have large expansion moves. The monthly, the monthly sequential SMTs usually lead to, you know, swing trades, large swing trades, very large swing trades. And if you guys, you know, you were remember what I just said, right? You can split the quarters of the year in quarters, right? That was missing. That was missing, right? Because you have 90-minute cycles, what else do you have? Then you have the daily cycles above that, the weekly cycles above that, you have the monthly cycles. But then you just jump from the jump over the, you know, cycles of the quarters and go to the yearly cycle. Didn't you, real, didn't you realize that that four 90-minute cycles equates to one session? Four sessions equate to one day? Four days, right? That's one would equate to one trading week. The addition of Friday. One, four weeks would be one month. Mon, but four months is not a year, right? So we completely jumped over the cycles of the quarters for, you know, I just did that on purpose. I literally wasn't missing. So every, you can look back every 3.25 weeks, right? Just as how here, right? Got to just scrunch this up a little bit. You can see this, right? And you can see price, right? Failing to break below this low here, in here, but you can see breaking below the low here. That's sequential, right? For [Music] this, right? You can use, you can use the daily time frame or the four-hour time frame, right? Because you're basically just looking back, you know, weeks, and the monthly cycle is comprised of weeks. So you don't really need to, I don't want people to like build this into an indicator or anything. So yeah, there has to be like this thing that confuses, you know, people outside. And yeah, that's what is. There are still missing links that we would like fill over the, you know, coming months. Look how clean these lows are. And something's cooking. These ones, these. And okay, so don't talk about that. Well, that's fine. Anyways, look at, do you guys remember this? I remember this. I was hit this up to here, and I show it here, right? Remember this was like, I was just, I was brand new to Twitter, man. It was amazing. We made a lot of money. I remember seeing Ethereum at like, I believe like $100, $200, and it was insane, man, to see to know like where it is right now. Think more will present themselves as well. So here, during 2020, you can see that we traded close to the low of 2019, but we did not go below it. Whereas here, we did trade below the low of 2019. You see, you would probably be confused, like, with just looking at the lows, but remember, it's time, right? It's time specific, right? This year reflects upon last year, right? So if you see price trade, that's why yearly highs and lows are important, and that's why monthly highs and lows are important, and that's why weekly highs and lows are important, right? Because the current quarter will reflect upon the previous one, right? So this, right here, December is 2018. This is not 2019, and we're with, and you know, this is 2020. So price traded, this is literally the low of 2019, but due to the fact that it's so close, right? To 2018 low, you would be confused if you were not aware of time. So here, we did not trade the low, the low of 2019, but here, we did trade below the low of 2019. So again, this candle right here, this is January 2019. This is February. So there are times when you'll see things like this happen, right? It won't just be on higher time frame cycles, but most times it happens on higher time frame cycles. I'm guessing it's due to the fact that whoever built this day, you know, want to, you know, leave you as confused as possible, but, you know, they can't get rid of this, right? They can't erase the footsteps, right? They, and they can't erase time, because we can see this happening, and it happened here again, and it will more than likely happen above here again, right? So the first thing to note is, before there was any, you know, considerable reversal in Bitcoin, in anything at all, there must be consolidation. Price must leave a swing high or a swing low and return to it during another upcoming quarter, not the pre, not the current one. So if we ever see something like this happen at the top, that would be very easy, you know, to, once we see displacement short, which is basically something, you know, similar to what happened here, why I was actually bearish here. Okay, I'll show you guys, you know, the reasons. So you can see at the top here, right? The times match. That's a precision swing point. That's the monthly time frame, right? So within Bitcoin, you can see that's a down closed candle. Ethereum is an up close candle. So it's the same algorithm everywhere. Anyways, so here again, we fell, failed to break below this low here. We broke below 2019 low. This is 2020's low. Just act like this is not there. Price expands, precision swing point, reverses. Right here, within Ethereum, you can see that price traded down, right? And this was a previous quarter of, this was a, this was a quarter of the year, right? And this traded in the upcoming quarter after this one, failed to break below this low, right? And while price was trading here, let me turn this on, right? While price was trading on this candle and went down, right? This already, but, right? This was not happening in, right? A different quarter. This was happening the same quarter here, right? And we are referring to the quarterly cycle, right? Because here, as well, right? This is the quarterly cycle. Quarterly means basically four years. So it's just, you know, each year is a quarter. This is like the types of things that happen, you know, every five years, six years or so, right? These types of moves, price action, the quarterly cycle, you know, reversing. So here, right? You can see a cracking correlation between 2019, 2020. Here, you can see a cracking correlation between the low of 2022, right? And the low of 2023. So 2023, right? You know, it, it didn't have to trade below this low because it was already below it. But due to the fact that we had price open below this low, which was the low of 2022, and then we had price open above this low, which was the open of, which was the low of 2022, within the price action of Ethereum, that was cracking correlation. A cracking correlation. So price does not have to trade above a high or a low for there to be a cracking correlation. Price can simply just open below that low while it opens above the low in the other correlated assets. Right here, right? We can see the pressure is above this side, but we would be stupid to just go and just, right? Short. We need sequential SMT, right? You need sequential SMT for basically everything, right? To confirm fair value gaps or in badness, everything, right? But there are different ways and different types of sequential SMTs, right? For example, price can just trade into, right? A rejection block while it's not trading into a rejection block within the other candle, right? It doesn't even have to break below the low. Just needs to react to the rejection block while the other asset isn't doing so, and that would be SMT as well. What would confirm that is, you know, expansion or a fair value being formed afterwards. So we have, remember now, you guys know the micro cycles, 90-minute cycles, the daily cycle, the weekly cycles, right? And there are 13 weekly cycles. This is gems, like, if you don't, if you don't watch until now, like, which is, you know, we've been talking for like 40 minutes, you're not going to get this. So there are 13 weekly cycles in each quarter, right? Just as how, you know, there are five days within, you know, the calendar week, well, trading week, but just four days, right? Are what we talk about like within the weekly cycle based on quarters. But there are 13 weeks, right? Within each quarter of the year. But, right? There are times when you will see a blank month, right? And that's what gets it to to 13 because usually you just find, you just find like when you're using the indicator, you just see like four per month, right? And there's just three months in each quarter. So you, so basically the indicator just depicts 13 weeks. No, my bad. For oh my God, basically the indicator just depicts 12 weeks, but they're 13, right? The blank week, use it as how you use Friday, you understand? So now, have you ever been looking at the, you know, the indicator, looking at the monthly cycle, and you're like, why is here blank? There's nothing here. Okay, should I just not use it? It's probably low probability. No, just, it's just, you know, something else that, you know, we will talk about, right? But to make this make sense, I had to exclude that part, right? So you could understand, right? So you could, you know, get to the understanding that you are at the moment. Okay? So I hope that you guys, you know, took something away from this today. I'm pretty sure that you did. Hope you guys did. Remember, man, it's not about being right all the time. It's about catching moves. It's about, you know, building a system that works. Yeah, it's a wildcard. The 13th week, just just like Friday, the Joker. So this is just about, you know, you being able to find setups. You don't, you don't get paid to just to be right if you're not pressing the button, right? So you just need a setup that works. It's not flawless, but it's near to that, right? You need to be trading on days that have high impact news events, right? Remember what I said, um, the past Sunday, right? I said Wednesday and Thursday, that's when you want to trade. Look what happened Wednesday, today, then Thursday again, we have high news events. So I'll speak with you guys again over the course of this weekend. I don't know, we'll probably have some surprise live stream again. Take everything that I said to, right? It's nothing that, it's not, it's not like, you know, someone just coming and be like, you know, giving you random information that just doesn't work. Put this indicator here with this one here. No, you can go your shots. You can see it working for yourself. You know, a lot of blanks will fill in with this one. The sauce are the nuggets will go over some of your, your, your heads. It's like you haven't been paying attention. And I hope that you just have a wonderful day. Talk to you guys soon. [Music] All you want to me is a great obsession. I am theing t on burning the stream many times. Can I ask you how many days can I go without you? Show [Music] [Music] [Music] The distance SC [Music] can of [Music] days can I go without you? [Music] A [Music]