Transcription
Today's number, guys, is $5,500. The level just reached by the biggest hedge in the world when it comes to alternative assets, gold. And while we've long liked it, it is doing something that is very unusual and almost incredibly scary. Whether we're traders or investors, in this video, we need to talk about what's going on with the US dollar, as the monthly could be very telling. Huge outflows moving through all of the parts of the world and of course US oil starting to break up. Could we be about to see reinflation play out even though the Federal Reserve says it's probably not going to happen? Well, as we always say, let's follow the flow together right now. Stocks, commodities, and cryptos. Doesn't matter which one you like. We've got a lot to talk about in today's video. See you soon, guys.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name's Thomas Atinson and in today's video we need to discuss the latest macro data. What's going on exactly when it comes to the options flow and of course this earning season kickoff. Microsoft down big, Meta up huge and Tesla eking out a little bit in terms of after hours action. But the real story could be concern around the world when it comes to debt and maybe more importantly debasement of certain currencies. This is certainly the big discussion point right now and it comes back to something that we've discussed on this channel for over a month now which is the US dollar and specifically this chart here. We shared this over on our X account, links in the description if you want to follow us there for some of the latest data and you can see that this is the trend line that has held everything since the global financial crisis of 2007-8 and is starting to come under some pressure.
The problem lies in the way that gold and silver are moving. In fact, we've seen similar moves in terms of overall action. And gold is on an absolute rampant movement here, beating the NASDAQ 100 by 60 percentage points over the last year. And you can guess when that last happened. Well, there's only one time it's really done this over the last 30, 40 years, and it was just before the global financial crisis. Gold sometimes tells us that something is going wrong and you can clearly see that it's certainly skyrocketing and people are starting to think about alternative assets a little bit harder, I guess, than they were years ago. If you've been watching the channel for a long time, you would know that we've been bullish gold for at least 3 years here and of course silver for over a year and a bit and they've been totally beating some of my expectations. Of course, our original plan was gold $3,000, then $4,000 to $4,500. And then, of course, we've had to keep upgrading it due to what's been happening in the overall world dynamics, including geopolitical risks and all sorts of things like that.
So, if we measure gold by US stocks, you can see here that it has just hit a 12-year low. Now, you might say, well, does that mean it's actually crashing in terms of the markets actually falling in comparable price? Well, yes. I mean, gold has done a bit of a pickup, but funnily enough, this also happened in very similar ways before, of course, the Lehman Brothers uh issue and to say the least and the overall crash of the S&P. And it does show you a couple of things. Gold often preempts issues, eg it actually did something similar in 2018 into 2020. And it's doing something right now with the dollar and of course with the stock market. This is a very good chart here uh courtesy of Philip Pillington I think it is which is over on X and you can see here it's also from Bloomberg. So it's a really cool chart and it does show you we've hit one of those critical levels.
Some other things to note is that the rate of change here from Kevin Gordon over on X has really skyrocketed and you can see here the rate of change has now done something we have not seen going back to 1985. I think it would have shown up in the 1970s if you're familiar with gold charts. That's when gold and silver went absolutely ballistic back in the day. But this is really the fastest acceleration that we've seen on gold. And it really does show that there's something going on. Now, what could be happening? Well, it could be just, you know, dollar debasement or at least people getting concerned about fiat. It could be smart money and central banks having some form of currency war. Or it could be all of the above, plus also weakness in the economy. Take a look here at the latest data coming in from Bloomberg and Kevin Gordon over on X. And this says job cuts, firings, and layoffs. And the story count is starting to rise up once again. And you might say, well, big deal. It's happened before and we didn't crash. Absolutely. But we are starting to see it accelerate. Do remember these trends, if they do flow through from the metals market into the bonds market, we need to be concerned. And we do have some reads on the bonds market which currently are still, let's just say okay. But if that goes like this at any point, then it could get really nasty really quickly. So keep an eye out. Make sure to sub to this channel. In 2026, as this is the year and next year that I think we have to pay very close attention to the markets. These are not as easy as they were just a few years ago where it was pretty much just buy the magnificent seven stocks. And we've already demonstrated that with so many new abundance mindset sectors going over the last quarter in particular.
So betting against the weaker dollar hits a record premium. Everybody's doing it. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the best trade, but it certainly has been going. And one of the reasons is because of course people are really eating into this idea that maybe we might see the Federal Reserve with of course Trump um announcing a new pick soon of the Fed, next Fed chairman, basically cutting rates. Now, if we see a cutting of rates and we already have, let's say, commodities running away and US 10-year yields, as we'll see later in today's video, running up as well, that could be a significant concern. And this basically is now the Fed pausing. So, it was a vote and the vote I think was 10 to 2 or something like that. And basically, we had uh most people saying pause is better. The only other people that said no to that were, of course, let's do a drop straight away. And you wouldn't really think it's an environment where you'd want to be cutting based on what's happening in the metals world and everything. So, just remember this could become a very serious story, especially if price action flow continues to decline and we continue to see gold and silver go skyrocketing and especially if you see something like silver $200 plus in the future. If that happens, then you know things have gone out of control and that's a super squeeze, which means super fear and it's probably going to start falling through into things like this. This is the Goldman Sachs US financial conditions index and it is actually saying according to this one from Kevin Gordon again, Kevin's got some good charts today, I got to say, that we are back down at almost no risk, as in like the risk is low, the risk is low, that's like the calm before the storm. When you see the risk is low, you start saying how low, and it is certainly getting back down there to where it was pre-2008 and we all know what happened then. So we got to keep an eye out just in case uh for risks and of course that's going to come back to the flow viewing.
Let's take talk about here emerging markets. You can see emerging markets have been absolutely skyrocketing in recent days. This is something that we've talked about in our private community as well. Another chart here from Kevin Gordon. And basically, we've been seeing a huge outflow from the US into so many different things. You notice that the indices of different countries around the world have made new highs. By the way, China just made new highs. Give a clap for that, guys, because we've been waiting for that one for a little while. And it did come through. And of course, emerging markets getting a lot of attention because of metals, oil, and other things. Now, you might think it's all awesome when silver, gold do this, and it's great if you're in it, but do remember that traditionally when this has happened in the past, it's generally brought volatility to markets. So, when silver goes crazy, as you can see here, Blue Curtic says that those particular data points can bring with them some volatility. And we do expect a midterm year, which this is in the US, to be quite a volatile one.
Some other things to note is of course Microsoft had its earnings. So we'll just go through some earnings here and then give our kind of next thoughts on the macro side and how things are shaping up. And Microsoft did pretty well. I mean, earnings per share were $4.14 versus $3.97 expected. Revenue was $81.27 versus $80.27. But of course the market said no, don't like that. Down 6% in after hours. And what the counteraction was that from that is basically that we saw a big movement uh into uh Meta. So Meta actually did a lot better. And there's the breakdowns here from App Economy Insights. Always love these visuals. Here's Tesla's one. Tesla revenue down 3% year-on-year. Gross margin 20% up four. And then we saw free cash flow down 30%. So it was a mixed result. I guess the market kind of expected something similar. So in the end it was up 2%. I always say unless you're a really good fundamental expert, do remember that generally speaking, it's all about ratios. And this is a stock especially that's about options as well. So, as you guys know, $424.30, that's the put support at the moment for Tesla. $460 plus, that's the call wall. You get through the call wall, you can start a squeeze.
Now, Meta was up even more after hours. Actually ended up about 5 or 6% and it had a pretty good one. Earnings per share $8.88 versus $8.23. and revenue was a little bit higher at $59.89 billion versus $58.59. So, it was a double beat. The market did like that one. And you can see here it was doing okay overall. Uh the AI question, I guess, is the big one here. And I would say with Meta, the chart's pretty crazy. I mean, of course, we'll look at it later, but it's really been one of those stocks that I think has beaten a lot of people's expectations, but they're also running a significant amount of ads. And a lot of those, I will say, are probably AI generated from what I've seen. So, it could get old fairly quickly if you look at that section of the business. But regardless, it's not really about your opinion in markets. As I've always said, it's patience, react, don't predict. The key here is seeing the flow show up in the charts, show up in the macro, show up in the data.
Let's now take a look at the overall sentiment coming into this earning season. So, there's no doubt that people are very, I guess you would say, polarized. Some people are super bullish. The sober look here from Lance Roberts. You can see overall the Bank of America bull bear spread is extremely overbought. Now when you get that high, generally it can bring with it some weakness in the future. The one thing is though, we also look at investor sentiment reports and they've gone from being bearish generally to bullish just recently and it does on average actually end up pretty good. Now I'm not using this uh bull bear spread as much as I used to. You guys know that we used this four or five years ago very strongly. It was an excellent kind of read, but in recent times it's been a little bit worse. But I've got to say, Duality Research, this is a super chart. Have a look at that one. The bull bear spread when it does cross and how the market generally looks. What a beautiful kind of couple of runs here. On average, the return is actually exceptionally good. Uh but I would say that this has become a little bit less reliable in terms of indicator. Love this chart though. A super way of viewing it overall.
So, where are the I guess you would say the advantages of this market right now? Well, obviously the first one has been commodities prices and it's not just gold, it's not just silver, platinum, palladium, some of the ones we've liked, copper recently just going absolutely ballistic and you can see here the commodity prices from Fidelity and Jurian uh Timmer, which is always a great chart here. Um, really, really showing some strength there and the S&P 500 sector as well. Little bit of a hidden catalyst here. We've talked about oil quite a lot in the channel. Obviously, oil services was one of our favorite sectors last year and it's done incredibly well. I was surprised how well it's actually done, how quickly. But, you know, then you look at silver and you go, "Okay, that's even crazier." Again, one of the metals we did like here. And percent of energy sectors stocks above the 200 DMA. Well, that hit a monster level. We had 95% just the other day from the market stats here. and it does present pretty strongly uh coming into the next couple of months. So, generally speaking, if you're getting reinflation, you'll often see oil and oil hasn't really been going, but now it seems to be poking its little head up after what has been a horrific couple of years for it. So, interesting times indeed. Something to watch this year.
Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla are now out of the way, but we still have Apple uh tomorrow in particular, or I guess could be today if you're watching it. And this closure is going to be a fairly key one. Microsoft kind of got slapped. So will Apple get slapped as well. A mixed result from Magnificent 7. It's not exactly great. Uh so we'll see how that plays. But you can also see here the expected volatility of the options market was actually pretty correct. Plus or minus 7 for Meta, ended up happening. Tesla was only two instead of the six and a bit and Microsoft ended up about 5 and a half. So you can see here uh pretty pretty clear that the options market was fairly on this time around as Duality Research says here. We do still have semiconductors being one of the best sectors of the last kind of year to date but also last quarter and that's good because of course if we have semiconductors, which I call modern day Dow theory, a lot of other people do as well, that's a strong sign that at least for now the markets are holding up. And one of the reasons or one of the cases being made here, especially by people like Ray Dalio, is that the market is going up, but it's because the debasement is occurring and the actual dollar is technically going down. So, a lot of people are kind of seeing it that way. Market's up, sure, but dollar is down. And Ray Dalio in particular has been talking about that in a recent interview if you want to check it out. I won't post it here, but um, yeah, he did mention it. So, something to think about.
S&P 500 performance for the rest of the year. Now, we're about to end January. We've got a special coming up on that one. So, there won't be a video tomorrow. That'll be the last of the kind of, you know, one-on-one off uh videos that we're doing recently. I've just been traveling. Uh but I will be back doing a great video this weekend talking about, of course, performance moving forward. And specifically, we'll be looking at some of the JAN stats. So, look, January looks like it's going to probably close bullish. If it does, uh that is again not a bad sign for the bulls for this year.
Now, let's go to the one asset class that's not working, and that's been Bitcoin. Bitcoin's been pretty poor, you've got to say, in recent weeks and months. And actually, what's been happening here, Crypto Rover, I thought had a pretty cool chart here from CryptoQuant. And you can see here, balance 100K, 1K BTC, excluding miners and exchanges. Actually, we're seeing a little bit of possible accumulation here. Now, nothing's happened, but this is the type of thing that usually uh creates kind of rallies. You can see last time it rallied up a little bit. There's clearly a lot of buyers, but there's also a lot of sellers. And I think this one just needs to find its footing, find a really strong breakout, probably past $100,000, get back into the news, and then people will go crazy on it. But for now, Bitcoin is still holding within a tight range, and we'll talk more about price as we bring it up.
In terms of where are we at this stage, I think the markets are kind of, you know, doing their thing. Volatility will be set for 2026 and we do know we need to pay attention to it. But the main thing here is going to be sector rotation and stocks. Single stocks in particular, as we've already seen, that's where the real performance has been. Brethren advanced decline line is still strong, guys. We just hit 7,000, which we know is a call wall, which we'll see in a moment. So no doubt that's why it's sold off a little bit there. And here are the updated options movements. So it's kind of like a dull market, barely making higher highs. And you know what they say about dull markets? They're not really very good ones to short, and we've maintained that for a long time, and that's why you don't really want to be fighting against the trend, even if it does look dull. S&P 7K, look at this level, 7,000 and now 6900 showing up here for the end of the month on the 30th here. So certainly 6900's where the puts are, 7K is where the calls are. So we may stay between both of those ranges at least till the end of the month based on the options.
Tesla. Yeah. Well, it's all about 460 and 420 and 430. So, basically after the results, I think it was almost 440. It's kind of hovering in between the zones. Nvidia, not bad. Up to 190 plus, obviously 190 to 195 is where you're going to get call squeezes. So, that's looking pretty good on the charts at this stage. We've long suspected that looked okay. And IBIT as well. This is the big thing for of course Bitcoin. It's probably going to need to get through, I'd say about 53, cuz I think 53 to 55 shows up quite a lot on the calls and then next stock could be 65. So watch probably 53 and 55. If we get through those on IBIT, that could be very strong in terms of positive gamma on options.
Gold charts. Well, you guys can see we are clearly in a super squeeze coming through GLD and yeah, it's just every level struck. Well, uh in particular, I guess the level that we're already well above at 456. So, there's clearly hedging going on in the paper contracts and that could get actually a little bit out of control soon if if we don't see it slow down. There might be some stories that hit. Let's see if anyone actually is uh offside on that trade and ends up getting smacked around. Remember, when people get liquidated, that's often the teller that the market is over from those levels, but we'll look at that in a moment.
US oil. Well, we've liked it. It's done well. It's up almost $4 a barrel since we talked about the bullish sides for this. So, I'll give you guys a clap on that one. Um, this is actually pretty strong for the barrel. And you can see here barrels are going up. US dollar to Swiss Frank, often considered the Swiss Frank one of the biggest hedges in the world. Obviously, the reasons are clear that broke down. And at the same time, we also saw US 10-year yield go up earlier this year and break through. So that seems like an eon ago, but it actually only happened a few weeks ago. So there's a clear change in the air here. The Fed might be saying blah blah pause blah blah maybe cut, but really the 10-year is the market and the market's saying yields could be up here. We've got some problems going on. We've obviously got some hedges starting to occur. People are actually going out and buying currency hedges and gold and silver. And while this can instantly reverse quickly and trap everyone, we have to see now monthly close. We'll update that. Weekly closes next two weeks will be super important. And this chart here, the dollar index and the way that it significantly closes cuz I'm still looking at this as demand. So I think it's a little bit early to tell actually, if you can believe it.
What about gold? Big rally, big, big, big, absolutely skyrocketing. Look, I still like. I mean, I've said before, I thought gold at the end of all this would be at $7,500 an ounce after all our upgrades, but I tell you what, the speed of which it's doing it, that is the scary part. I'm not too worried. Uh, but at the same in terms of, you know, if you're in these types of assets, but you've got to remember these are not normal moves. If you look at a monthly, you'll see, look at that thing. It's skyrocketing. Uh, so for now, the sentiment is obviously bullish and if you've got coins and stuff, I guess even better because everyone wants those. Silver also took a new high. So, it'll be interesting to see how this reacts. Big volatility there the other day. Showed some powerful forces, maybe some targeting coming through, but yeah, clearly still absolutely an uptrend. And as I said, you know, if we're going to see really crazy silver ratios, then we could really possibly even get to 200. Now, I I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon because I just don't think so. Macro people, longer-term investors, they might be comfortable with it. But short-term, I think the VIX is going to be wild, guys. I really think there's going to be some significant moves. Like what we saw there on Tesla on Silver the other day was Tesla-esque. Actually, it was a monster, that 118 back down to like 103.
Chinese markets, they're booming as well. Nice breakout. Obviously, a lot of single stocks doing well. Something we've talked about now. Private community, Market Masters Club over at fxevolution.com. I think you guys really love that. It's a great community there. And I've got to say, you guys are the best. It's like there's no doubt. It's like the people we meet in this community and the people that you watch the YouTube videos and stuff. There's no one better I got to say than you guys because it's just amazing the sharing and more importantly just the the general well-thought-out processes. I guess that's maybe why you guys like data, macro, price action, flow, all these things that we do here. We just do it different. We're built different, guys. Double EM as you can see emerging markets doing really, really well. Uh emerging markets versus SPY as well, absolutely skyrocketing and again, that's just showing that money is flowing into overseas investments.
Tesla still trapped between 460, 424.30 as we know. Microsoft hits the supply zone, rejects off this. So it'll be interesting to see what happens there. I'd also say if Apple, which is also at that supply zone, does poorly, then that could actually start to bring down Mags. And again, the level to watch on Mags is here because you can see it didn't quite close above that that little alert I've got there. And we want to break below 62 if you're bearish. Now, I'm not particularly bearish, but if that happens, that could be a real signal. And I think that will come with bonds as well if that is going to occur. Meta, well, it smashed that resistance. You often see resistance is getting hit. And of course, the gap fill is what the market is probably going to be looking for, which could be around 750. So, congrats, I guess, if you're being a Meta long. And NASDAQ here, as you can see in after hours, really playing with that all-time high kind of level. So, not much going on there.
When it comes to Bitcoin, it's not through 915, 914, so it's clearly not super bullish at this stage. Uh, and the bears are still in control of this. Of course, we're watching levels such as 86K. We'll bring back our liquidity levels over the weekend in our analysis, and there's a lot to talk about, but Bitcoin is really not where the flows are just yet. and they're actually down about 1% today. So, there's all this new stuff going on. It's so many things to cover, but there's all this new stuff going on, of course, in the Bitcoin world, which we'll cover hopefully in our weekend video, but for now, not through this level. Bears are still in control of the short term. And um, it's kind of like a little bit hopeful uh that of course the bears or the bulls do return and get through those key levels soon.
Now, if you like today's video, make sure to subscribe, guys. Make sure to smash the like button as well. A lot of you have asked me to give up kind of like a thought process at the end of the videos. So, first up, follow us on those socials uh down below. But also, I think in general, you know, I think the dollar debasement theory or at least concept is being of course, you know, now discussed by everyone. I don't think anybody here would be, you know, thinking this is new stuff. You guys have obviously seen me talk about this for 3 years at least. So, that's not really new. Uh what I am careful of sometimes here is when you get one of those massive catalyst events. So some kind of liquidation event that that we hear about in the news that can actually flip it, even though everyone starts to go in that direction. So I guess we're looking for one of those catalysts. I think there's a lot of abundance, a lot of opportunities and I think a lot of people just need to probably get out of the mindset of just tech, because clearly for the last four months in particular, there's been so many different sectors.
So guys, a lot of opportunity. My general thesis here is that the markets are still dull. They're still rallying and they're not really freaking out in the options world and more importantly in the bonds world yet. Now, if that happens, I won't be the first to talk about it, but right now it just seems to be metals, metals, metals, and some other commodities. Catch you guys. Bye.