Transcription
Imagine, somewhere in Russia, far from the noisy avenues of the capital, a project is unfolding, one that is not shouted about on federal TV channels, not written about in glossy business magazines, not discussed at social gatherings. And it's a shame, because it's about an attempt to achieve the impossible – to challenge the global giants of microelectronics. Those very TSMC and Samsung, which for decades have held the planet by the throat, controlling chip production for everything: from your smartphone to military satellites. It sounds ambitious, indeed. But here's what's interesting. While some dream, others are already building factories, already buying equipment, already hiring engineers. And the most piquant thing is, they are already promising breathtaking results. Automated production of the future, technologies that Elon Musk only fantasizes about, deadlines that make even the most desperate optimists doubt. But, and this is a big but, there are nuances, details that they prefer not to advertise, figures that raise questions among experts, and risks that could turn triumph into a disaster costing billions. Today, we will dissect this project without embellishment, without propaganda, without rose-tinted glasses. We will figure out what is a brilliant move here and what is the gamble of the century, where reality lies and where a beautiful presentation for investors. And most importantly, we will answer the question: is Russia truly capable of making a breakthrough in the most technological industry on the planet? Or is this another story in the style of: "We wanted to do our best, buckle up." It's going to be hot. Let's start with the basics. Microelectronics is not just an industry, it is the foundation of modern civilization. Every smartphone, every car, every washing machine, every rocket, all of it works thanks to tiny silicon chips. And here's what's funny. The whole world depends on a handful of companies. At the top of the food chain is Taiwan's TSMC. This company produces about 60% of all microchips on the planet. 60%. Imagine if TSMC stopped tomorrow, half of the world economy would stop. Next to it are South Korea's Samsung, America's Intel and Nvidia. That's it. Four players control a market worth $350 billion. And now, attention. Russia is completely absent from this lineup. Domestic chips are stuck at the technological nodes of the nineties and early 2000s. While the whole world is churning out five and three-nanometer processors, Russian manufacturers are working with nodes from 90 to 250 nanometers. It's like comparing an iPhone to a Nokia feature phone. The sanctions of '22 only made things worse. Western equipment suppliers slammed the door. Access to modern technologies is closed. The import of critically important components is blocked. It would seem like a dead end. And it is precisely at this moment, when everyone expected surrender, that it appears, a project that is supposed to turn the situation around. Not just to catch up, but to make a leap. Not just to buy technologies, but to create our own. Not just to build a factory, but to launch the production of the future with elements of artificial intelligence and full automation. Madness, perhaps, but history knows examples when it was precisely crazy ideas that changed the balance of power. The question is different. Does this madness have a chance to become reality? And here's where it gets most interesting. So, meet. A project to create a high-tech production of next-generation microelectronics. The name doesn't matter, the scale does, and the scale here is cosmic. Goal number one: to launch fully automated chip production. Not just a factory with robots, but an enterprise where the human factor is minimized. Imagine, 8-10 technological stages, where smart machines control processes themselves, make decisions themselves, correct errors themselves. Such systems in the West are called "Lights out manufacturing," because there are almost no people there, and the lights can be left off. Goal number two: to create our own automated design systems. Those very EDA systems, without which a modern chip cannot be designed. Currently, this market is monopolized by Americans. Russia wants to break this monopoly. It sounds bold. Goal number three: to reach a competitive level of production, to overcome a technological lag of 20 years. 20. Imagine, in just a few years, to go through a path that others took decades to traverse. And now, the deadlines. Hold on tight. The first results are promised by 2025-2030. That is, in fact, in 4-5 years, they plan to reach indicators that took a generation of engineers and hundreds of billions of dollars in investment for world leaders. Funding. We are talking about sums with a lot of zeros. 100 billion rubles is just the visible part of the iceberg. Real investments could be much larger. For comparison, TSMC spends about 7-8 billion dollars annually on research and development. Annually. Technologies. The plan is to implement artificial intelligence for production management. Digital twins – virtual copies of all processes, where solutions can be modeled and tested before implementation. Predictive analytics – systems that predict failures before they occur. It sounds like a sci-fi movie script. Of course. But the documents say this is not fiction, this is a plan. A plan that is supposed to turn Russia from a technological outsider into a world-class player. Impressive, isn't it? Ambitions are off the charts, promises are alluring, numbers are dizzying. But let's slow down, because any economist will tell you: "The louder the promise, the more carefully you need to look at the details." And this is where the most piquant part begins, the beautiful picture has been painted. Now let's come down to earth, because the devil, as they say, is in the details, and there's a whole army of these devils here. Let's start with the equipment. Modern microchip production requires machines that cost as much as an aircraft carrier. Lithography machines from Dutch ASML, each costing $150 million. A piece: one machine. And you need dozens of such machines. And now, the billion-dollar question. Where will Russia get this equipment? If Western manufacturers under sanctions categorically refuse to sell, Chinese counterparts are a generation behind. Own development, that will take years, if not decades. Moving on. Automation. It sounds magical. Factories without people, artificial intelligence, digital twins. But there's a nuance. To create such systems, you need world-class specialists, engineers who understand not only microelectronics but also machine learning. Big Data, industrial Internet of Things. Where to get them? Lure them from the West – sanctions, or grow your own. This takes years of training, and the project promises results in 4-5 years. Now about the deadlines. 4-5 years is a joke by the standards of the microelectronics industry. TSMC built its empire for 40 years. Samsung for 35, Intel for half a century. They went through thousands of mistakes, burned mountains of money, trained a generation of engineers. And now someone claims they will go through this path in 5 years. This is either genius, or, well, you understand, funding. 100 billion rubles sounds impressive, but translated into dollars, it's about 1 billion. One. TSMC alone spends 20 billion on one factory. Samsung invests 150 billion dollars in expanding production. Feel the difference? It's like trying to overtake a Formula 1 car in a Lada. And now for the most painful part. A 20-year technological lag is not just a number, it's an abyss. In these 20 years, the world has undergone several revolutions: the transition to FinFET transistors, extreme ultraviolet lithography, 3D chip architectures. Each step required breakthrough discoveries. And all this needs to be gone through again or jumped over. On what grounds? Experts shake their heads. One well-known semiconductor specialist said a phrase that explains a lot. "This project is not for results, it's for reporting." Harsh, perhaps, but Russia has already had examples of high-profile technological projects with ambiguous outcomes. Remember Rosnano: billions in investment, loud promises. Result: lawsuits, scandals, losses. Or Skolkovo. Russia's Silicon Valley, which never became Silicon Valley. The ambitions were similar, the funding generous. But the return is difficult to measure. History teaches that Russia knows how to create grandiose projects on paper, but the path from presentation to real production is strewn with the skeletons of failed endeavors. And microelectronics is not an area where you can cheat physics with loud speeches. But that's not all. There are details that change the whole picture. And now let's rise to a higher level. Because this project is not just a story about factories and chips. It's a geopolitical chess game where the stakes are measured in trillions. Microelectronics today is the new oil. Whoever controls chip production controls the future. Artificial intelligence, drones, quantum computers, weapon systems, everything is tied to semiconductors. And the West understands this perfectly. That's why the sanctions in microelectronics are the harshest. The US not only banned the sale of modern equipment to Russia, they created an entire system of technological blockade. The Dutch were forbidden to sell ASML lithography machines. The Japanese – precision optics, South Korea – materials for production. This is unprecedented isolation. And against this backdrop, Russia declares: "We will create our own." This is not just an economic project, it's a gesture, a political manifesto, a statement to the world. We are not broken, we will develop against all odds. But there's a nuance. Technological sovereignty is an expensive thing. China is investing 1.5 trillion dollars in the development of its own microelectronics. Trillions. And even with such investments, they are still several generations behind TSMC. Because catching up with the leaders, when they are not standing still, is like running after a train. And now, a blunt question. If China, with its economy, resources, and army of engineers, cannot succeed quickly, what are Russia's chances with budgets many times smaller, under sanctions pressure, with a brain drain, when the best specialists leave for where they are paid 10 times more? Cynics will say: "The project is doomed." Realists will add: "This is PR and budget appropriation." Optimists will object: "Russia has experience of breakthroughs in critical situations." And here we come to an interesting point. What if it's not about technology at all? What if it's about something else? Imagine, the project is launched, money is allocated, factories are built, jobs are created, infrastructure is developed, personnel are trained. And even if the ultimate goal is to surpass TSMC, the intermediate results still have value. Some production is better than none. This is called strategic import substitution. It's not necessary to become the best in the world. It's enough to become independent. Let the chips be worse, slower, more expensive, but ours. For military equipment, for critical infrastructure, for security systems. On the other hand, there is a conspiracy theory. What if the whole project is a smokescreen? A cover for something else, a legal way to transfer budget billions into the pockets of the right people? The history of Russian megaprojects knows such examples. Or here's another option – it's a signal to the West. Like, look, we're serious, you're isolating us, we're creating an alternative. Maybe it's time to reconsider sanctions? A bargain. A geopolitical bargain, where microelectronics is a bargaining chip. Or maybe they really believe? Maybe there are technologies we don't know about, developments they keep secret? Maybe this is the very case when the conclusion that everything is collapsing there will turn out to be premature? And here the real questions begin. So, let's draw a line. What do we have? On the one hand, a grandiose project, ambitions to conquer one of the most complex technological peaks on the planet, a desire to break free from the sanctions noose, an aspiration to prove to the world that Russia is capable of breakthroughs. It's beautiful, it's inspiring, it's something you want to support. On the other hand, harsh reality, a 20-year technological lag, lack of equipment, shortage of specialists, deadlines that cause experts to recoil, funding that is incomparable to the scale of the task, and a history of failed megaprojects that doesn't let you relax. Who is right? The optimists who believe in Russian luck and the ability to achieve the impossible, or the skeptics who calculate on a calculator and shake their heads. The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Yes, the project is insanely ambitious. Yes, the chances of complete success are close to zero, if measured by the standards of TSMC and Samsung. But does that mean it's pointless? Perhaps there is a different logic here. The logic of survival, the logic of sovereignty, a logic where not the ideal result is important, but any result, where even partial success is already a victory, because the alternative is complete technological dependence, and in today's world, that's a death sentence. Perhaps in 5, 7, 10 years, we will see not an analog of TSMC, but something of our own, not as powerful, not as perfect, but working. Production for domestic needs, for critical infrastructure, for defense. And this will no longer be a failure, but an achievement. Or perhaps we will see another story about billions dissolved in reports and presentations, about ghost factories that exist only on paper, about promises that remained promises. Time will tell. But here's what's certain. It's impossible to watch this indifferently, because the future of an entire country in the age of technology is at stake. And now, a question for you, dear viewers. The very question that will divide you into two camps and make you argue fiercely in the comments. Is this project Russia's last chance to enter the technological future, or the most expensive illusion of the decade? A breakthrough that will go down in history books, or a scam that will bankrupt the budget? Do you believe that in 10 years, gadgets with the inscription "Chip designed and manufactured in Russia" will appear on store shelves, or is this a utopia, a beautiful fairy tale for naive patriots? Write in the comments, argue, debate, because truth is born in discussion. And we on the channel "Economics Today" will continue to follow this story. We will dig up the facts that are hidden, ask the inconvenient questions, and tell the truth, however bitter it may be. Like this video if you found the material useful. Subscribe to the channel so you don't miss the continuation of this saga. And turn on the bell, because the most interesting part is yet to come. Thank you for being with us. This is Economics Today. See you next time. M.