Transcription
Hello everyone. The ghost story that has been talked about in the previous episodes seems to have come as expected. NASDAQ didn't drop much, but the AI technology stocks plummeted quite severely. This morning, the Korean stock market dropped to the circuit breaker. Taiwan's stock market also dropped.
But everyone, don't need to worry. From September to November, this is the best time for newcomers who haven't entered the market yet. The best timing for layout. It must be seized. This is a rare investment opportunity in life. The second half of this year is the greatest opportunity.
Today, I will use logical thinking, explaining from the perspectives of politics, economy, and technology to everyone. Whether you are an investment novice or an expert, inside this mind of yours, everyone has a clear investment roadmap. In that case, you won't panic when something happens and won't be afraid. At the end of the program, I will also share with everyone my investment strategy and stock selection direction. Please note that this video is my personal investment notes and does not represent any investment advice.
Let's start with the first question. Why do I say from June to October the market will be like a roller coaster, but it's a lifetime opportunity? Several things that happened in the past few days made the big short on Wall Street treat them all as ghost stories to crash the market.
On June 4th, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 215 to 208 and passed a bill called War Powers Resolution, which is a resolution on war. The interpretation in this news is saying that the Congress wants to restrict and end Trump's war on Iran. The US is withdrawing its troops. Iran has won. Iran is about to successfully control the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil will continue to stay at $100 a barrel. This will lead to an increase in US inflation. The probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year has risen to 85%.
I mentioned before, once interest rates rise, tech stocks will immediately drop because these tech giants have financed the construction of those, what, hundreds of billions, tens of billions of US data centers. Their interest costs will suddenly increase significantly. Their financial pressure will increase, and their profits will decline. Profit decline, decline in performance, decline in performance, stock market plunges. That's the logic. Now Nasdaq tech stocks are falling. It's pricing in the year-end rate hike expectations.
But everyone needs to pay attention to one issue. The resolution passed this time, in English, it's 'resolution'. It's not a bill. This resolution does not require Trump's signature and is not legally binding in the United States. It is merely symbolic for the U.S. Congress to show pressure on the President. The U.S. will not withdraw troops at the moment, as negotiations are still ongoing. So there is a possibility of reopening Hodeidah, in my opinion. Once it is open, this stock is about to soar. We are looking forward to this day now. So the current bearish interest rate storyline will cause a big drop in the stock market. Everyone should remember this. If there is an interest rate hike, both gold and silver will plummet. This is for sure. Because gold and silver do not generate interest. The annual interest is 5% to 6% in US dollars. Who would buy gold then?
Is the second one about raising interest rates? When this story just started, there was another short-term event adding fuel to the fire in the market, drying up the liquidity of the stock market. It's Google issuing $83.7 billion in new shares. What are they for? Building data centers? And next week, SpaceX IPO is going to raise another $75 billion. Anthropic is expected to go public by the end of May, just completed a $6.5 billion financing round, expected to go public around October. OpenAI is also expected to go public in September, currently also in the process of financing. Everyone, do the math. These companies are all hot right now. Everyone wants to buy their stocks. But everyone is fully invested now. So they have to sell other stocks to raise funds. The stock market will fluctuate and fall. This is short-term. The funds will eventually come back.
The third ghost story. It's when the Wall Street big short starts to perform. Talking about the recent Broadcom financial report, AVGO. It's not good. There's another one that I don't know where it came from. A short essay. Talking about the next generation of Nvidia models. Memory requirements need to be reduced by half. This news is incredible. Released just like that. Micron, SanDisk, Samsung, SK Hynix. What connects light to AI data centers? All are experiencing a significant drop. Those with less drop by 5%, those with more drop by 20%. But let me tell you all, this is all a trick, just to scare you guys, to harvest leeks.
I will analyze this in detail later. Before I talk about it, let me say first. I recently opened IG and Threads. The account name is nicolasyoungyt, with a blue badge. I will share some thoughts in it every day. Note that I will not actively contact you. There is no investment group either. This is my only IG account. Anyone who messages you first is a scammer. Be sure to be cautious.
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After Broadcom released its financial report, stocks plummeted by 12%, dragging down the tech stocks. Micron also dropped by 7%. Today, it dragged down the South Korean storage stocks. All of this happened for no reason. All ghost stories. Broadcom's AI-related revenue surged by 143%. It's just CEO Hock Tan on a conference call without significantly raising next year's revenue expectations, without painting a rosy picture for the market. So when the market heard this, they thought AI development was stagnating and started selling off collectively.
Everyone can recall when AMD released its financial report at the end of last year, it's also a pattern. Performance is very good, but the forecast is conservative. This market is aggressively selling off. Later, everyone saw how much AMD had risen. It rose from $188 to $546. Apple, NVIDIA, and other big players. Institutions are very cautious. They generally don't paint a rosy picture for the market. So, everyone must understand the nature of these stocks. This requires certain experience and market sense. Without years of monitoring experience, it's hard for beginners to appreciate. They get scared at the first sign of a drop. There's no need to be afraid at this time. Continue to hold.
I have delved into Broadcom's financial reports and conference calls. There are no issues. Investing.com also shows the median target price among 44 analysts is $511 with an average of $469, all bullish. There is one thing everyone must pay attention to. There is a major revelation in Broadcom's financial report, the golden pitfall. The CEO mentioned that networking accounts for 40% of their revenue, and networking is simply insatiable. The meaning of 'insatiable' is to be greedy and never satisfied, unsatisfiable. This is a very significant signal. That's why Huang Renxun said this company, Marvell, it is the next trillion-dollar company. After saying this, the stock price dropped by 40% immediately. Broadcom and Marvell, their company is growing the fastest. It's high-speed optical networking in the data center. It connects all the GPU memory together. It also connects the cabinets together. And finally, it connects data centers to data centers. So, Marvell, Corning Glass, Nokia, Coherent, Alab Lite, and CIEN, which has dropped quite a bit in the past two days, are all still viable for configuration.
Now, AI investment needs to focus on three main areas: GPU, CPU, storage packaging, and connectivity. TSMC definitely leads in semiconductor packaging. However, TSMC's current production capacity is already unable to meet the demand from Huang Renxun, Su Zifeng, Google, Amazon, and other companies for self-developed chips. This production capacity will inevitably shift to several other packaging factories, such as MediaTek, ASE Technology, and Unimicron, etc. It's only a matter of time. It all needs attention.
Next, let's talk about our biggest investment now, and also the most important, which is storage. Storage is always in short supply. Micron fell sharply yesterday. Both Samsung and Hynix melted down. So in addition to the ghost stories mentioned above, there is also a short essay, which accelerated their decline. This short essay says the next generation of Nvidia cabinets may reduce the capacity of a memory called SOCAMM by half because this memory is too expensive, so cost reduction is necessary. I checked this short essay was published on June 4th by an anonymous account. Major media did not confirm in advance. There is a plan for this answer. So from this perspective, he might just be a little ghost story in the essay.
I also did some research on this SOCAMM DRAM. It's the memory next to the CPU, not next to the GPU. In our AI data center now, the most needed HBM memory, which is Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, they produce the fastest GPU memory. So no matter how unreasonable this rumor is in terms of technology, as soon as the market hears the words 'memory to be halved', they immediately panic and start selling Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. But do you all remember before Micron initiated this epic surge, around March 25th? There was also a super big crash in the past few days. At that time, there was also a short essay talking about Google's new algorithm TurboQuant, which aims to reduce AI's memory requirements to 1/8. And then Micron dropped 20% in just three days. But what happened three days later? Micron started to rise and it tripled in value. At that time, I kept watching the video repeatedly saying, the opportunity of a lifetime has come. Everyone, buy quickly.
So, to sum up, there is actually no issue with the AI memory stocks. It's just a pullback after the profit-taking surge. If the few events I mentioned earlier truly converge into a perfect storm in the future, remember, everyone, at this time, you must buy aggressively. This is your last chance to get on board. But don't go all in at once. I'll talk about it later.
Why have I been telling everyone to buy heavily when the market is down? Because next year, the US stock market will start a bull market that will last until 2028, even 2030. Why am I so confident? Just look at the GTC conference these days. If you say the stock market is going to crash at this time, the bear market is coming, then wouldn't they have come in vain?
In my spare time, I like to study some metaphysics and mysteries, and then I studied futurology. In futurology, it talks about after 2030, the annual investment in this data center is trillions of dollars. This is by the end of 2025. I made a video to explain to everyone. Now, Goldman Sachs has also come up with their research. They released a research report on May 1st. It's very long, you don't need to read all of it. To sum it up in one sentence, Goldman Sachs' model shows that by the year 2026, AI capital spending will reach $765 billion, and it will grow to $1.6 trillion by 2031. What he means by this is, in 2031, a total of 1.6 trillion US dollars will be invested for the year. From 2026 to 2031, the total expenditure will amount to 7.6 trillion US dollars. And this 7.6 trillion US dollars will flow into GPU, CPU, and storage, silicon photonics, so this is the direction.
There is another direction we need to delve into now, which is high-performance passive components prepared for the next generation of NVIDIA, the 800-volt AI data center. Please pay more attention to me. I will explain to everyone.
Next, I will talk about my recent investment strategy. If you are a beginner, remember four words: Don't go all in. I see many beginners leaving comments in the thread saying they have never invested before and have $100,000 on hand, what should they do? What you need to do is start investing in batches from now on, DCA. Divide the money you are ready to invest into 5-8 portions. Starting from now, every time it drops, buy a portion every two to three weeks. Keep buying until November. Build up your position to 80%-90%. The more volatile it is, the more it drops, the cheaper your later purchases will be. The more shares you get, the better, just like year-end discounts. You spend the same amount of money, and you can buy more LV bags.
For beginners, buy broad-based funds, such as buying 0050 for Taiwan stocks, SMH or SOXX for US stocks. SMH focuses on semiconductors, while QQQ tracks the entire technology sector. VOO represents the entire US economy. VOO captures the entire U.S. economy. You don't need to pick stocks. No need to time the market. The one thing you need to do is buy when it's falling. Don't shake your hands. Keep buying even in a big drop, don't sell. Keep buying without trying to guess the bottom. Those who can accurately guess the bottom are relying on luck.
If you are experienced, then upgrade your strategy from broad-based to individual stocks. You can increase your position to around 50%. It's an individual stock. Here in the Taiwan stock market, the key is to look at the leading companies and AI, the critical checkpoint of the supply chain. TSMC has a decisive role, coupled with MediaTek, advanced packaging like ASE Technology. For others, just follow my strategy. Go find some stocks. It's about manufacturing and testing storage chips, the whole chain of processes such as optical interconnection chip manufacturing and testing, plus AI data centers, 800 volts of voltage, what is needed are some control chips and so on. The skill of an old hand lies in the current market volatility when individual stocks are mistakenly killed. You need to pick out those mistakenly killed stocks that have fallen sharply, but his orders are indeed growing. There is no problem with his performance. You should buy these stocks that are wrongly killed. This is the operating strategy for veterans.
Now in this bull market, everyone may find it seems like you're saying any stock will rise. In fact, the most important thing for veterans is position control. Never be fully invested. Never be completely empty. The control of this position is the most critical. Don't say anything now because the Nasdaq just dropped. Where will it drop to in the end? No one is sure. No one has a crystal ball to predict the short-term future. Sometimes I might say, what stocks do I want to buy today? What software stocks? But after talking about tech stocks, they just dropped directly. There's nothing I can do about it. I can't predict the short-term future. So sometimes when I mention those stocks, everyone should take a look first. Don't rush to buy immediately. Some friends leave me messages, saying they immediately went all in, which scares me. Don't ever do this. I'm not 100% right either. This investment note of mine, you can't just copy like this, right?
Actually, these two days, there's nothing earth-shattering happening. No major black swan event has occurred. So Nasdaq hasn't experienced a sharp drop yet. It's just a technical pullback. Now and in the future, one of the biggest influences on the stock market is the Federal Reserve's Kevin Wash's first speech on June 17th. What the market fears most now is a sudden hawkish turn, saying there will be a rate hike by the end of the year. The market has already priced in one rate hike. By the end of the year, the market is expecting two or more rate hikes. This exceeds market expectations by far. Then it's all over. This market still needs to drop by 15%. Tech stocks, it's even possible to drop by 30%.
But if you hear this and immediately get scared and sell all your stocks, then you are wrong. You forgot that in this world, there is someone who can manipulate the market anytime, and that's Trump. With just a word, he can make the stock market rise by 15%. These are all possibilities. The Hormuz Strait is always open. So don't be scared by short-term fluctuations. Always look at the long term. Make sure to have assets in hand. With stocks, look as far as 2030. Starting from tomorrow, these giants may need to invest over a trillion dollars in a year. You must earn this money. If you don't have stocks, how can you make money? How can you participate in this AI revolution? So far, only investment can change your destiny. That's why my channel is here to share information with everyone, to encourage each other, and to get rich together. Don't be afraid when it falls. Take your time to add positions.
Does anyone have any thoughts? Any messages? Feel free to leave me any questions. I will share everything with you all. I will also select the most important messages for everyone, make videos. Don't forget to follow my YouTube channel and Instagram. There are too many scams nowadays. Everyone should install Surfshark VPN. Take care of yourself. Thank you all. See you next time.