Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you have your little spark. Very happy to find you again for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, October 17, 2025. And there, you're going to tell me, the potato is rather squashed because the crypto market unfortunately is taking a hit today. So, it's not taking a hit alone if we take a little look at the traditional markets. Wall Street is not doing great. Here, we see Europe is also a little bit red, but still, cryptos today are correcting very strongly. Are we surprised? No, not at all. It's simply following the scenario of the structure since we had the flash crash last week. We're proceeding on the principle that at the structural level, we have what most often makes a regular flat, and so we've seen that almost every day. I've put up a little chart too, a bit for fun. Don't hesitate to go see that on social media and on the VIP Telegram channel. Well, it's been quite a few days that we've been short. In any case, I've taken several shorts because it doesn't smell good. And as I explain every morning, for those who don't know, I send a trading-style analysis where I show you my trading plan a bit every morning for the day. And well, in recent days, there have been bearish channels. I'm taking a little pause. Each time, there have been several bearish channel opportunities here to go short because not only are these small channels finally bearish channels, sorry, which are rather bearish, they are bear flags. That already tells you it doesn't smell very good. It smells of a descent, but in addition, the main structure itself is a regular flat to retest the low. So we're not surprised that Bitcoin is going to scrape and retest its lows, quite simply. And so each time we've had little bear flags, and these little bear flags are quite simply channels that have a higher probability of breaking downwards. So, well, that's why I was short, and then finally today, well, for some it's a bad day, but for those who are short here like me, well, it's rather a good day. It allows us to accumulate a little stablecoin to be able to buy more lower down.
Regarding ETFs, we have Bitcoin ETFs, yesterday $530 million in outflows. That's starting to sting. Ethereum ETFs, $56 million. So, for now, ETFs are also a bit sellers. Unfortunately, that's not going to help the crypto market too much. Regarding altcoins, well, we are on the 200-day moving average which is here around $712 million. If we start to close a candle body below it, so it really needs to be the candle body that closes below, it doesn't smell good. It means a descent is going to happen, and we're going to look for not very pretty levels. The bottom of the wick is far away, but well, it could continue to bleed to reach it, unfortunately.
Well, at the structural level here, we'll wait. If you see another bear flag forming, so a bullish channel, boom, it will unfortunately be the continuation, knowing that well, the structure is like Bitcoin, several solutions. First solution, well, if you want, you can have the little A here, the little B, you can have a little C to then boom fall back for this big A, this big B, this big C. Then you go back up, so you want, you just have to go quite low at worst, well at best you make a running flat like that, or you have after the big A, the big B, the big C which will give another push before going back up. That's the kind of structure we're going to have, structures that will last for weeks and weeks and weeks. It's going to be long if you want. Well, so for now, if here we see a bullish channel, poof, it will unfortunately be the continuation of the decline. The bears are here, the bears here, we see that they have momentum. For now, there is no weakness in the momentum. If we start to break this 200-day moving average, well, it will be the descent that continues, and the Bollinger band, it's there at 703 billion. If the 703 billion, every day, boom boom boom, the candles hit it, the Bollinger band will continue to widen downwards, and the candles will slide on it. Unfortunately, to be good, we would need to regain this 50-day moving average at 837 billion, which was rejected here on Monday, Tuesday. Well, for now, it seems a bit far from dear Bitcoin. Well, this doesn't smell like roses. Why? Because the 200-day moving average which is here at 107380, we are breaking it. So if we start to break it, it doesn't smell good. We'll wait for a second candle anyway. That is to say, if after we see a second red candle confirming the break of the lower Bollinger band at 105500, we are there now. Yes, it will indeed be the descent to $100,000 or even lower. So breaking the 200-day moving average, that's not pretty at all, but well, we can have a green candle that recovers it suddenly, you see, it's not serious, one candle, but if we make a second candle that moves away from the 200-day moving average and confirms the break of the lower Bollinger band, then it doesn't smell good. So you've understood, we have a candle about to make really red that's starting to attach, you see. Knowing that the bears are there, the momentum is growing, and they're not letting go. The bears are not nice. For Bitcoin to be good, it needs to recover here, there are quite a few resistances around $115,500. We have the Tenkan here, the Kijun, the 50-day moving average. Uh, we also have the new Ichimoku, we have four resistances, a quarter of resistance, huh. Well, there you go. And so it needs to pass these $115,500 to become good structurally. Well, little A, little B, little C. So, or there, it's almost over and then it starts again. Or else it's a bit more complex with a first impulse then a wave A, a wave B, a wave C to then this is a big B to make a here the A then a big B here for a big C. Well, to finally start again. So if we start to see Bitcoin going up, up, up, we'll be careful not to have, in the end, here, you see, a kind of small A, small B, small C to then finish with our last push downwards. That's the idea because since we broke the bottom of the wick, well, we're on a running flat, and this also has probabilities, even if it gives a little push upwards, to fall again. Now, in the short term, short term, this evening, tomorrow, we're watching. If we see a bullish channel on 1 hour, boom boom boom, lam, it will be the descent. And I'll go short again, you see, quite simply, just like there was an opportunity to go short, an opportunity to go short, an opportunity to go short. Well, here again, an opportunity to go short, boom. Well, so for now, we'll see which channel it draws, but well, it's certain that the structure itself doesn't smell bullish.
So, I'll do a long-term analysis on Sunday as usual, but don't forget that we still have the main structure, the big structure behind all of this, it's this one. It's this one where we went through the big wave A, I'll talk about it this weekend when we went from around 1100 to 74. All of this is wave B. Okay. And we could expect a wave C that will arrive one day. I've been talking about this since before this summer, okay? And this summer, I really hammered it home several times. Why? Because there were a lot of bearish divergences weekly, notably the third bearish divergence weekly when we broke $126,000, when we made a new all-time high. I told you, I'm not inventing anything, I'm reading what I see in front of me. Bearish divergence for the third time at the 3rd all-time high. I was like, "Okay, I'm putting stablecoins aside for a bear market." Caution often pays off, you see. Well, after that, those who didn't sell, those who didn't listen, well, I can't do anything for you. I'm not Nostradamus, I listen to technical analysis. Weekly bearish divergence for the third time. Well, there you go, you see. Well, now the question we're asking is, will wave C for this giant running flat happen? Well, given the aggressive impulse, it remains possible because this is quite aggressive what we have here. You see, this is quite, I'll hide all the drawings a bit. This is quite aggressive, and since it broke the lows, notably this one at 107,000, be careful, you see. To say "Yes, it's good, we've bottomed out, we need to break this." You break 98,000, ah, then it's good. You're really in the big wave C. That is to say, it will look for at least $92,000, the gap, or even lower. So to really say we've bottomed out, we need to break here at 98. However, by having already broken here at 107, ah, you tell yourself, aren't we in the big C? Weekly. Well, we'll analyze the weekly, uh, Sunday, as every Sunday, I do a long-term weekly analysis, and we look at the big weekly structures, and that's where I tell you, beware, a bearish divergence stinks, or a bullish divergence smells good. There you go. Well, we'll see that on Sunday.
Regarding liquidity, there's not much more to look for. Will it nibble a bit up to 100,000? It can, but it's not obliged. Look, to the south, there's almost nothing, not even 3 billion. Whereas to the north, if Bitcoin goes to, for example, 120,000, well, it will eat 14 billion. So at some point, boom, I think there will be a big bullish wave. The big bullish wave could happen from one day to the next, or it could explode. We'll just be careful. We could have here an A, a B, a C that doesn't break 116,000. All of this is a big B for this A, this B. And boom, another last C before going up. But if we have that, it's a very bullish structure. Okay? We'll just be careful about that.
Ethereum, it's on its lower Bollinger band. That's it, if it makes a red candle that breaks here 3680, its lower Bollinger band, well, it will look for its 200-day moving average at 3170, which will be its first major support. The bears are here, they are not happy, they are angry. It hasn't tested its wick yet, it could easily test its wick, you see. Here, there. So it continues to nibble. Knowing that if it makes a bullish channel, zigzag zigzag, you know the tune, boom, it will continue to fall. Well, for now, there's no reversal structure, and since it hasn't broken the bottom of its wick yet, we need to be cautious, you see, with Ethereum, knowing that there's still a small cluster waiting below 3500, and so this small cluster below 3500 would just be to go eat below the bottom of the wick. So in any case, if you see a small channel forming here in the next few hours, boom, it will be the continuation to test the bottom of the wick, simply, and eat all of that.
Like Bitcoin, there's a lot to eat to the north, over 5 billion if it goes to 4300. So at some point, when we've finished nibbling, nibbling, nibbling, well, boom, it will make a nice bullish wave, but it might not be "to the moon." It will be for an A, a B, a C. So if it doesn't break the wick, it can look above 4300 to make a small regular flat, then big A, big B, big C, a small running flat, sorry, that would be good. However, if it starts to break the bottom, it will be more like Bitcoin with a rise that won't have broken the previous high. It won't break 4300 to make a running flat and then, well, boom, fall to make the last one. Once again, in fact, if you make a running flat, meaning those that will break like Bitcoin the bottom of the wick, they can make a recovery but with a high probability of coming back one last time to make a new low. That's what the structure tells us. You see, at the level of Solana, well, Solana is on its 200-day moving average at $173. It held for 3 days between October 10th and 12th. If it holds, Solana will try to make a small double bottom to try to go back up. If here the 200-day moving average at 173 is broken, it will be a direction towards the gap at $121. It can sting. For Solana to be good, it needs to regain its 50-day moving average at 216. For now, well, the bottom of the wick hasn't been regained yet. The bottom of the wick at 170, we still have quite a bit of liquidity waiting below 170. 170 is there. So it could eat, like Ethereum, this little cluster, go look under the wick of 170 after eating the wick, make one last upward move, boom, like that, to validate this little running flat. You see, however, it won't go above 211, it won't go there. It will stop before that, it's a running flat, and then big A, big B, boom, big C, a second shot, a second bearish wave. You see, this is the first one, there will be a second one, but after the second one will be the last one because the structure will be finished, and then boom, validation of the structure, everyone goes up. That's a bit how I see the structure, in any case, at the moment. So, don't be surprised if it goes below 170 to eat what's under the bottom of the wick. However, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, well, there's a lot of money to the north, and at some point, it will make a nice bullish wave to go get all of that.
XRP, to finish, it's here on its lower Bollinger band which has started to widen with last Friday's candle. If it starts to break its lower Bollinger band at 220 and its Kijun, which is also at 220, there's the gap to look for at 213. If it makes a candle that does something like this, breaking all of that at 213, it will be the nuclear descent that begins. Okay. Now, if it holds, if it just goes to its gap at 213 and manages to hold, to be good, it needs to regain its 50-day moving average at 2.85, and then it will smell good. Ah, to note that XRP is not far from the oversold zone, you see. So it's rather something interesting, something, something, zones where it's very good to buy. That's a bit the idea, you see, of the oversold zones here. Well, after that, given that the big wick went so far, it's complicated to say it will test its big wick because it's a 5-year low. So it has a separate, somewhat messy structure. So we forget the idea of testing the big wick. It might have a little bit to nibble. I wouldn't be surprised if it nibbles just that to go look for the gap at 213. The gap of 13 is right next door. It would be quite surprising if it didn't fill this gap of 13. So if we see it continue to make a small bullish channel, boom, it will just fill this gap at 13. It can look under this wick at 10 to go eat a little bit up to 10, just eat that. And like the others, we'll have to expect a nice bullish wave after we've nibbled. So to summarize, okay, we're falling, we're not surprised because the structure told us for everyone, well, especially for Bitcoin, which is the leader of the market, the structure has been telling us for a week, I'm going to go look here, or I'll make a regular flat and then I'll go look for the bottom of the wick, or I'll make a running flat and I'll go look for the wick and then a second time to go back up. So we're not surprised, it's following the structure. Now, let's not forget the positive thing, which is that everyone has a lot of liquidity to the north, and at some point, well, it will have to go and clear all of that. So, in short, you have to hold on tight. Soon, it should be the end. There you go, to put it crudely.
Now, regarding the stock market, well, Wall Street is not doing great, the Euro even less so. This morning, I talked about it a bit in the news videos, there are starting to be defaults. It's a bit normal in quite a few American banks. The finance sector is starting to struggle a bit, and you see it in the European finance sector, it's all red too, you see. It's starting to be like, oh my god, oh my god. Well, anyway, I'll talk about all of that in this morning's news video. Go watch it. Okay. We still have chances of rate cuts by the end of the month. We went from 80% to 100%. We went to 100%. 99.1, 99% chance of a second rate cut. There you go, we should be pretty good. What to remember, the most important macro figures to come are next week, next Friday, the inflation figures. There you go. So for now, between today and next week, there are no major macro figures. The American government is closed. The only catalysts, both bullish and bearish, will be Trump opening his mouth. If he opens his mouth in a way that he'll attack China, it will be red. If he opens his mouth in a way that "It's good, we have an agreement with the Chinese president, I love him, it's great, he's so nice, he's my best friend." Boom! That will be big green. Unfortunately, he's the one who makes the weather, this little guy. Well, so for now, the S&P 500 is quite bearish. You see the candle is getting a bit crushed. Well, the NASDAQ too, but they are still slightly in the green. Well, China took a bit of a hit, Hong Kong too. They're taking some small profits. There's a big ugly candle on the Euro Stoxx 600 on European tech too. Even gold corrected a bit. Gold, be careful, we're on a tune that's been playing for so many years, for over 50 years in the markets, even 100 in some markets, it's FOMO. And like, gold explodes upwards, everyone will buy gold, or people will queue up on the street to buy gold to resell their gold, there's so much FOMO. At some point, the music will stop, clearly, it's always like that. Always, always like that. Okay? When you've been in the market for quite a few years, you know the tune. When you're new, you see gold explode, you say, "No, gold will explode again." At some point, it stops, huh. It can't go up, up, up, up like that to infinity, beyond. We're not in Toy Story, you see. So at some point, when it turns around, it will sting. The more it went up strongly, the more it went up high violently and quickly, the more it will come down strongly, violently, and quickly. Huh, don't forget cryptos, the strong, violent, quick bull runs, and the bear market, it falls strongly, violently, and quickly. And so gold risks experiencing the same thing. Silver, same, Barry continues to fall, it's not very pretty. More and more recession. Uh, well, after that, it will make general inflation a bit, a bit perhaps decreasing, huh, since it's also backed by, of course, energy. Uh, regarding crypto stocks, Coinbase continues its descent. MicroStrategy, it's ugly, huh, it continues its descent. The miners took a nuclear hit yesterday, and it's starting today. Look at that red candle from yesterday. Wow! It's not very pretty. In the bond market too, there's a bit of selling, but well, it's still pushed well. The bond market has pushed well. That's making yields fall. That's good news. It's good news for risk markets to have falling yields in the bond market. It's very good news. And the dollar is a bit green today. So, in short, today there's a bit of selling in stocks, a bit of selling in safe-haven assets which are metals, a bit of selling in the bond market, and people are returning to cash. That's the idea of what we have today.
Well, so cryptos, okay, we've corrected, not a good day. Can it correct for a few more days? Yes, no problem. It can correct for a few more days. I think there will be a good little bullish wave afterwards. A good little short squeeze to go clear all of that. But it might be for one last little wave. And yes, that's how it works, huh. It's not like I correct once and then I go back up. People leave, they think everyone is going back up, and I do one last bearish wave to really make people capitulate, to really put them in a bad state. And at that point, then I'll go back to "to the moon" mode. That's how it works. It's when people are really down and out that the market will say, "Okay, it's time to go to the moon." There you go, as usual. So you have to hold on tight, be strong. Those who are all in Bitcoin like me, it's easy. Those who are all in altcoins with portfolios that are down -70-80%, it's clear, it's less easy. Well, unfortunately, that's how it is. I send you kisses and see you tomorrow. Bye bye. [Music]