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ทันโลกกับ Trader KP19:55

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And this year, if AI starts to become more prominent in terms of expensiveness, have you noticed that money is starting to flow into Thailand? Many people say, "Oh, it's just for one year, then it will leave." I can't say they're wrong, it might be just for one year, but it shows one thing: the Thai stock market is not a cheap market. It's still in the spotlight of foreign investors. This shows that investors are starting to turn back to defensive stocks. Coincidentally, the Thai stock market, actually the Thai stock market, in terms of the number of stocks [music] not counting Market Cap, because Delta's Market Cap is too strong. If we don't count Market Cap, the majority of stocks in the Thai stock market are defensive dividend stocks. So, Thailand is ready in terms of geography and geopolitics. It's ready, it doesn't restrict entry, ah, it doesn't restrict you. You can retire here, but you don't get citizenship. [music] You can retire here. We are ready. We have public health. We have infrastructure. I must mention first that regarding infrastructure, we are not inferior, we are better than Vietnam. We are not inferior, we are better than Vietnam. But of course, infrastructure in Vietnam can also be built. >> Coming up again, the investment event of the year, Follow the Future 2026, the 4th edition. A stage that brings together investors, experts, and global perspectives in one event. We are back with the theme "Beyond Imagination: Investing in the Next World." Meet us at True Digital Park on Saturday, November 21, 2026. Early bird tickets are now on sale, limited to only 100 tickets. >> There will be many more innovations happening in the future, right? Because our world never stops developing, no matter how many crises occur. >> Yes, that's why, if today, SNP is... but this time, when they say AI, if it's going to explode or be truly booming, I still believe it hasn't exploded yet. I still think there's time. It can still go up. Ah, but okay, it might be entering the Fear to Miss Out phase, FOMO. Ah, okay, I understand. It might be in this phase. >> You said that you see it as FOMO now. >> I think it's just in the middle phase. Not yet in the middle phase, not yet in the euphoria phase. Euphoria is the phase of panic, like "I must have this." I don't think we're there yet. Why? Because the adoption of AI in the world today is still considered low adoption. Let's ask Thai people who actually use AI today. If the statistics from the ministry, DE, are correct, only about 4% of Thai people have access to AI. And out of that 4%, most of them just use it for Q&A. Meaning, I ask, you answer. It's not to the extent of using AI for business or for increasing income significantly. There are very few. The world will be similar. There are figures calculated that in the world, among listed companies, among companies doing business, not individuals, how many companies are actually using AI adoption to generate revenue for their business? It turns out to be only 6%. So, this shows that there is still room for growth in AI and Data Centers. I think it hasn't reached the explosion point yet. It might just be a small correction like in the past. But when it goes up from here, we have to be more careful. However, no matter how high it goes, and if you get stuck at the peak, don't be afraid. Just choose this period. We need to be more selective in AI stocks. Or, if you don't know, you can just follow the S&P 500 index. It's fine. Because the S&P 500 is always making new highs. There's nothing we need to be overly serious about. Ah, you can look at this picture. Here, this is the S&P 500 picture. If you don't pay attention to the corrections along the way, you have almost nothing to fear. The new technology will push the S&P 500 itself. The S&P 500 Index has one advantage. Right now, it's here. Today, from here, you can't tell how expensive it is. You have to look at this picture, right? That today, the Shiller PE is PE divided by the average net profit over the last 10 years. It will be more stable. It turns out that now it's over 40 times. If it goes up further, and hits 45-46 times, I think we need to be a little careful, right? Because we are not buying S&P 500 stocks too cheaply. But if it's at its peak now, should we be afraid? Look at this picture. Don't be afraid. It will peak again. It's just that the returns we get might not be as high. Believe me, there's... Oh, I forgot. I didn't bring this history. There's one piece of information. Ah, let Guitar guess first. Let Guitar guess first. >> Yes. >> If we choose to invest when stocks... this is American stocks. If we choose stocks when they reach their peak, then drop 10%, and buy, versus buying at every new high, which one is more profitable over 100 years? >> Buying at the high and buying at a 10% dip? >> Yes, buying at every high and buying at a 10% dip. >> Which one is more profitable? >> Uh, if... >> Guitar, please answer too. For those who think with momentum, do you think it's buying at the high, Khun Bee? >> Ah, yes, yes. Let's wait for comments. There aren't many listeners, so there are few comments. Or does it have to be delayed for about an hour? >> Yes. >> Let's see who thinks buying at every high, buying at every high versus waiting for a 10% dip and then buying, which one wins? Which one wins the market? But there's no "Nvidia wins all the time." [Laughter] It's possible. Ah, if you are confident, if Khun Penny is confident, then Nvidia. Choose it and diversify. I'll reveal it. Because I think people have already answered, but there's a delay. A dip. >> A dip and buying at every new high. Which one wins? Answer and there's a prize, right? Let's start with this. Waiting for a dip. >> This is the dip-waiting group. >> I believe you. Khun Ta is on the buying side. >> The dip group, let's see the dips. >> Dip, dip, every 10% dip. I'll give you a book, Khun Bee. >> Ah, someone has started answering that they only buy at every high. >> Dip, dip, see? >> Dip. >> Dip, dip, every 10% dip. >> There are prizes. Those with heart. Once there are prizes, it gets lively, Khun Bee. There are both groups, Khun Vee. Both dip and... >> There's someone who answered. The first person to answer will definitely get a prize. >> Yes. >> Definitely get a prize. Ah, here they come. Two prizes are complete. Khun Jum. Khun Jum, I don't dare to say the rest of your name. Khun Jum, what is it that says buying at every high? And Khun Home SK, buying at every high. >> Yes, they've answered. Buying at 5. They've started answering. They're buying at the high now. So, you've started searching, right? [Laughter] If you ask Gemini, you'll get the answer. Even if you answer later, it's buying at every high. >> Yes. >> Buying at every high. But you have to accept that you have to buy in many installments. Because believe me, sometimes there are 40-50 highs per year. >> Yes. >> It keeps going up. So, don't be afraid to buy at the high. Therefore, this is the S&P 500 stock market. Don't be afraid to buy at the high. >> You just keep buying, right? It depends on the timing of selling too, right? It's not like buying at the high and selling at the low. >> No, no, no. Ah, don't sell. Buy and hold. Buy and hold. Ah, but it's not suitable for investors who don't... This method is easy to say, but the problem is, where do I get the cash? Excuse me, where do we get the cash to buy every time? >> Yes. >> For example, if this year there are 40 highs, you have to divide it into 40 installments. You can't predict it. >> Yes. >> So, no one does it. Because, wow, last week we had to buy, right? Dow Jones New High, right? Buy again. If it drops, stop buying. Wait for a new high again. Ah, then buy again. And if it doesn't dip by 10%, we still don't buy. Wait for a new high and then buy. So, I'll summarize it like this: Keep Investing. Done. [Laughter] Keep investing. Keep investing. Who wants to do this? At the beginning of the year, at the end of last year, when we talked about the Thai stock market, there was only one person who said that this year the Thai stock market would be positive. Most people said it would go down to 1,000 for sure, 800. If there was someone a bit extreme, it would be Professor Cholak. >> Yes, Guitar talked to Professor Bean and Khun Lung Cholak. >> Hmm, who said stocks would go up this year. And now Lung Cholak sees it technically. Khun Vee, do you see it too? >> Ah, up to 2,000 points. And now he's changed it to 5,000, right? Did I hear correctly? >> Minimum 3,000. [Laughter] >> Oh, Amen, Amen, Amen. I pray for technical. >> Uh, actually, we need to look a bit. This year, because AI has gone up for 3 consecutive years, 4 consecutive years. Therefore, the valuation, as I showed you earlier, is not cheap. Unlike before, did you ever think that Google was at over 10 times? Did you ever think that Apple had a PE of over 10 times? But today, the PE is around 30 times. Ah, everyone says to look at forward earnings. Forward earnings might come down to 24 times. But we have to admit that forward earnings also have risks. Because we are looking forward, next year, will the profit be this much? As I said, as you said, there are risks waiting ahead that might not be as expected. Ah, whether it happens or not, we don't need to predict. We just buy. Keep continuing. DCA is a good method. Buy at new highs. Don't be serious. Ah, the Thai stocks are the same. And this year, if AI starts to become more prominent in terms of expensiveness, have you noticed that money is starting to flow into Thailand? Many people say, "Oh, it's just for one year, then it will leave." I can't say they're wrong, it might be just for one year, but it shows one thing: the Thai stock market is not a cheap market. Do you understand? It's still in the spotlight of foreign investors. It just wasn't in the spotlight for the past 2-3 years. But they haven't abandoned the Thai stock market. They haven't said that the Thai stock market is like the Cambodian stock market. Do investors know that the Cambodian stock market... I don't think there is. I understand they've opened it, but I understand it's not going anywhere. And it's stuck around there. Maybe it's closed, I'm not sure. The Cambodian stock market, they haven't neglected it to that extent. Even the Lao stock market, it's been open for many years, but it hasn't gone anywhere. Because of the size of the economy, the development, it can't go far. And there are many other countries' stock markets that they neglect. They don't pay attention at all. But not the Thai stock market. They are always looking at the Thai stock market. It's just that when they will come in, it's up to foreign investors. Even if they say you go to Vietnam, but this year is the year that foreign investors net bought in only one country, which is Thailand. And yesterday they bought. Maybe today they will buy too, if the stock drops. I'm not sure. And also futures. Ah, so, why are we of interest? This year, we have to sit and find the reason. What was the reason they weren't interested in us 3 years ago? Because we didn't have tech stocks. This year, we still don't have tech stocks. And the stocks considered truly tech are Delta and Hana, which are down a lot today, following international markets. You can say Hana, Delta. But others are like their associates, like "Oh, this one went up, I'll play with other electronics too," which sometimes has nothing to do with AI or Data Centers. They can rise too. Ah, so be it. Investors are starting to look for defensive stocks more. Notice that the Dow Jones is starting to adjust well. There are more "New Highs" in the Dow Jones. Instead of seeing new highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, we see new highs in the Dow Jones this time. This shows that investors are starting to turn back to defensive stocks. Coincidentally, the Thai stock market, actually the Thai stock market, in terms of the number of stocks, not counting Market Cap, because Delta's Market Cap is too strong. If we don't count Market Cap, the majority of stocks in the Thai stock market are defensive dividend stocks. Defensive stocks are stocks with relatively stable income, not fluctuating wildly with rapidly changing technology. Simply put, it's old technology, old business, or traditional business. For example, value stocks like hospitals and retail like CP, CBN, AOT. You can't say they are old because if you say they are old, they are very old. Because airports have existed since the time of the two brothers, the Lee family, who invented them. It's been a very long time since airports came into existence. So, these groups are considered defensive. They are groups that have been doing business for a long time. This group, communication, has been communicating for a long time. So, money is flowing into these groups. And if we don't include Delta, Thai stock PEs are not expensive, right? It's proven by higher dividends. Many people say it's because Thailand doesn't invest. I agree. Thailand doesn't invest. Well, the economy grows by 2%, 1%. Who among Thai private sectors will invest? It has to be foreigners. And this year is the year Thailand is in the spotlight. A lot of spotlight. We've never seen these numbers. This started in the previous government. So, the current government shouldn't claim credit. But they have worked together. But I must mention first, sometimes, luck comes with opportunity. It comes with opportunity. Luck and opportunity can sometimes be seen together. If you don't create opportunities, the luck and opportunities that come with readiness... >> Opportunity, yes. So, this opportunity, Thailand happens to have opportunity and readiness coming together. As Guitar said, what is the readiness? Other countries are in crisis. For example, if there were no events in the Middle East, if it were peaceful, I would want to buy a house if I had money. I would want to buy a house in that palm village, Palm Villa, where a house costs 100 million baht. >> Ah, if I had the means, I would get citizenship. [Laughter] >> Yes. >> We would get Dubai citizenship. Ah, which... >> But when there's war, everything... >> Uh, or we go to live in Dubai, and one bomb goes off, everyone comes out and buys in Phuket. Krabi. Ah, it turns out that the South's real estate flourishes. And notice carefully, countries that are in crisis will have problems with foreigners in Thailand. For example, Israel fighting Palestine, or all sorts of terrorist groups supported by Iran. It turns out that Israelis come to Thailand. Ukraine fighting Russia. Ukrainians and Russians come to Thailand. And they sit and drink beer here. Ukrainians and Russians respect each other, but they come to Thailand. Everyone is friends. Thailand loves peace. >> Come to Thailand. You will enter the land of peace. Ah, so come and live here. Japanese people also come to retire in Thailand. So, Thailand is ready in terms of geography and geopolitics. It's ready. It doesn't restrict entry. Ah, it doesn't restrict. You can retire here, but you don't get citizenship. You can retire. We are ready. We have public health. We have infrastructure. I must mention first that regarding infrastructure, we are not inferior, we are better than Vietnam. We are not inferior, we are better than Vietnam. But of course, infrastructure in Vietnam can also be built. So, ah, but with the advantage at this moment, anyone can say it's readiness. Vietnam's infrastructure is not as ready as Thailand's in terms of building Data Centers. Vietnam's electricity is not ready. The opportunity has come, but it happens that we have readiness. If there were no wars in the Middle East, the opportunity wouldn't have come to us. But when the opportunity comes, it turns out that countries in Southeast Asia, which are safe areas, which country is the most ready, has the easiest electricity, has the best renewable electricity? Looking around, it's definitely not Vietnam. Because they are focused on manufacturing. Factories need to focus on that. And they have so many factories in Vietnam that electricity production can't keep up. Today, they have problems with electricity, problems with water. Because most of their areas are by the sea, right? They have problems with water, cooling systems. Malaysia is also full. Singapore, don't even mention it, has been full for a long time. Therefore, the only country they think of now is Thailand to host Data Centers. It's not surprising that last year we had 1.88 trillion baht of investment. This year, there has already been over 200 billion baht invested in Data Centers. It's not surprising. These numbers. Ah, and it will keep coming. This is readiness and opportunity. And why do they want to come to Thailand? It's not just that "Oh, I have energy, I have something left." But our infrastructure is good too. Infrastructure, both above ground and underground, and above ground too. Above means up in the air. And there's fast 5G. Because fast 5G supports Data Centers. And they open companies here. So, if Data Centers and AI are here, it will attract other companies to invest. The supply chain that is not directly related to Data Centers but needs Data Centers will move to Thailand more. >> Because they have to use Data Centers in Thailand, which is definitely faster to connect directly. [Inhales] So, they want to move here. And it will lead to e-commerce continuously. Our duty is to facilitate their entry more. The Prime Minister has already said it. The current government has also said that there should be no red tape. This is something that we Thai people don't talk about much. But believe me, I've met clients who are mostly business owners. They talk about red tape. For those who do export-import business, they say there's a lot of Thai red tape. I want to understand, but I want to misunderstand very much why red tape happens. Why do the processes for permits have to go through so many tables? Ah, well, I don't want to say it. We don't want to say why it has to go through so many tables. >> Ah, why so many approvals? Today, we are trying to fix it. It should be fast like in other countries. It should be friendly. Currently, our score here is very low. Guitar probably knows that the score for ease of doing business in Thailand is very difficult. If it can be made faster, it will help us. They say they don't mind paying more, as long as they pay and it's fast. But not paying under the table. >> Yes. >> Paying and it's fast. The process must be fast. Not procrastinating. The law in our country is rich because of this. That's why devil lawyers are famous. That they exploit the law so much, this and that, "Chup chup." If you want to ask for something, it's so difficult. It's so slow. But I think this is how we solve problems along the way. We have readiness. We have projects. Data Centers, AI don't require personnel with high intensity like factories in the past, like Vietnam. So, we can cut this problem. And promote knowledge. What can be done there? The companies that come here are ready to train people. In the past, we were like this. When we boomed with tech. At that time, Thai tech came from Taiwan. It turns out that Taiwan moved here, and we made semiconductors instead. Then Taiwan brought old machinery from Taiwan and Japan. Then they let us produce. Believe me, when they came, they brought their people. Until 10 years passed, their people all left, leaving only Thai people to operate. I have this experience now because I worked in the Thai tech industry before. I know that at first, when they partnered with Thai people, Thai people held 60%, they held 40%. But they brought foreigners to do everything. And finally, they would transfer it to people. And finally, Thai people would operate. This is what I think will happen from now on. That, hey, it's okay. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a society of learning in economics, business, and investment more broadly. Now we have YouTube Membership. 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