Transcription
Something big just happened in just the past week. Multiple massive alt season triggers have fired off. First, Bitcoin dominance finally dipped under 60%. Then, ETH blasted through 4.2K for the first time since 2021. This is the closest we've been to a real alt season in years. So, everyone is asking, is alt season finally here? No. But this is how it starts.
Look at this chart. This is others. It tracks the total market cap of all altcoins outside the top 10. Right now, it's sitting at a quiet $300 billion, but at the peak of the 2021 alt season, this chart hit nearly $500 billion. And this cycle, I believe it can hit $800 billion. That's the difference between a boring 2x and the kind of monster moves we haven't seen in years.
Today, I'm giving you the blueprint, the exact checklist that I'm using to know the precise moment to rotate. Rotate too early and you get stuck holding bags that bleed out whilst you watch Bitcoin run. Rotate too late and the biggest moves happen without you. Today, I'll walk you through the exact events I'm watching so you can understand how this rotation unfolds and avoid the traps that wreck 99% of traders.
If you're ready to play this smarter than ever before, smash that like button, subscribe, and let's open the playbook. This video is for informational purposes only. Crypto assets are high-risk and are not suitable for all retail investors. This video is not intended for a UK audience.
All right, before we get into this, you need to understand the destination. You need to see what we're actually aiming for. This is the others chart, and it's one of the best ways to visualize what a real alt season looks like. It strips out Bitcoin and all of the other top 10 cryptos. This chart is pure unadulterated altcoin action. When this chart pumps, it means the lower caps are ripping.
Right now, it's sitting at $300 billion, but let's look at history. In 2017, it peaked at around $80 billion. In 2021, it went 6x higher to nearly $500 billion. This cycle, with more money, more institutions, and more narratives than ever before, I believe that it could hit $800 billion. The problem? Well, right now it's barely moving. It's just sitting there coiled like a spring.
To get to that 800 billion promised land, we need four specific conditions to line up. The four horsemen of the alt apocalypse. And when they ride into town, this chart will fly. Let's break down exactly what it takes to get there.
This is the big one. The horseman that matters the most. Without this, there is no alt season. Seeing ETH over $4,000 is exciting, but it's not enough. We need to see an all-time high break before alt season can truly begin. And listen, every time I say this, I get the angry comments. Just be positive. Stop the FUD. Look, I can't be one of those YouTubers who just screams season is here. Remove brain, buy everything. Now, I couldn't live with myself. I'm here to give you guys the truth, not just here's the reality.
Let's look at the 2021 chart. ETH tagged its all-time high and then it pulled back hard before it ripped higher. And in that brutal pullback, the low cap alts got absolutely wrecked. Could that happen again? Absolutely. But if it does, it's a gift. In 2021, it was just a few rocky weeks before the real breakout. It was a shakeout to get rid of the weak hands before the parabolic move. Let's be prepared for the same pattern. I believe ETH will go on to smash its all-time high. But if we get that pullback first, I want you to be ready for it, not scared of it. Then when ETH decisively breaks its all-time high and holds above it, that's horseman number one. And that's one step closer to our $800 billion destination.
Okay, the next horseman should make you excited. Hell, it made me excited. We need to see Bitcoin dominance below 60%. And yes, it dipped under 60% for the first time this cycle. We have waited so long for this. We have talked about it for months. And I probably shouldn't say this because it ruins the calm, emotionless trader persona, but when I saw this dip, I was as giddy as a school girl. I messaged everyone I know because this is massive. It confirms that capital is finally starting to have the confidence to move out of the safety of Bitcoin.
But, and this is a a big butt, it's only step one. We need to see Bitcoin dominance stay under 60% and keep trending lower for the real alt season to ignite. Think of it like this. This blue zone between 55 and 60% is where alt season is loading. But the rocket doesn't truly launch until we break below 55%. So, what am I doing right now? I'm preparing. I'm getting my watch list ready. I'm even rotating small amounts just to dip my toes in the water, but I am not pulling the final trigger. Not yet. So, that's horseman number two. When Bitcoin dominance gets below 60% and holds, that will take us another step closer to that $800 billion prize.
Which brings me to the most hotly debated chart in our awesome community, total 3es ETH. It's debated because I call it the altcoin fed and my mentor Nick insists on calling it total altco or some other nonsense. His name for it is just dumb. But thanks to a brilliant comment from one of you, a viewer named Slow Motron, we've settled the debate. He suggested alt be back like the Terminator because whenever this chart bottoms, alt season is back. It's a great name. Me and Nick both agree we're going with it.
So, what do we actually want to see on the altback chart? Look at this level right here, 1.0. Historically, whenever this chart gets close to 1.0, it violently rushes away from it. Why? Because at that point, the total market cap of Ethereum equals the total market cap of all other altcoins combined. That imbalance has never lasted. It's a signal that ETH is overvalued relative to the rest of the altcoin market and capital is about to rotate out of ETH into everything else. Right now, we're at approximately 1.5 and falling at record speed. It feels like the market is finally playing catchup because alt season is so late. When we hit that 1.0 level, that's horsemen number three of the alt apocalypse for me. And another huge step forward towards others at $800 billion.
But those three won't get us where we need to be because the last horseman rides a mechanical horse and mechanical horses need fuel and liquidity is the fuel for alt season. That was genuinely the worst lead into a segment I've ever done. Cut that please, Marcos. Probably for the best.
Now, the last horseman I want to see is liquidity, and we're about to get a lot more of it. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, September's Fed meeting now has a 90% chance of a rate cut. Now, let's look at what happened in September 2024. The last time rates were first cut, crypto took off immediately. The difference this time, we already have all the internal crypto signals lining up. ETH pushing new highs, Bitcoin dominance breaking down, our rotation charts setting up perfectly. Now add rate cuts on top of that. It's like pouring gasoline on a fire that's already burning.
Of course, past performance isn't a guarantee, so you always have to stay careful. But when powerful macro tailwinds align with strong structural signals inside of crypto, that gets me very excited. So for me, that's horsemen number four, the final push, the catalyst that could take the others chart past its all-time high of $500 billion and from there launch it into a possible $800 billion blowoff top.
Now, the debate still remains. Will this alt season be as crazy as 2021? Honestly, it probably won't be in the same way. There are just too many alts these days. The money is spread thinner. But that doesn't mean it can't be very, very good for some alts. Do you want me to do a full video on how this alt season could be different? Drop a comment below and let me know. I want to make the videos you want to watch.
So, let's talk my game plan. It's dead simple. I'm rotating small amounts into my highest conviction alts right now just to dip my toes in the water. But I am not making major moves. I'm not aping in. Not until those four signals start triggering one by one. If you want to see my full detailed game plan on exactly how I take profits and manage my risk, click on this video right here.
Other than that, that's it from me team. Love you all. Remember, trade smart, don't be a dumbass, and I'll see you on the other side.