Transcription
Victor Orban is gone after 16 years as Hungary's prime minister. And Asma, if you remember, right at the beginning of this year, I picked Peter Majar as one of the people to watch for 2026. I'm feeling pretty pleased with myself. Peter Majar is the new prime minister of Hungary. He won in a landslide.
Now, Victor Orban has been an extremely close partner to both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. So much so that in that final week of campaigning in Hungary, the American Vice President JD Vance made an appearance.
"Mr. President, you were on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots and I think they love you even more than they love Victor Orban."
"Well, I can't believe that. I can't believe that because I love Hungary and I love that Victor. I'll tell you, he's a fantastic band. We've had a tremendous relationship."
But Vance's endorsement wasn't enough to save Orban. So a big question is why did Hungary's election matter so much to the Trump administration and what does Victor Orban's defeat mean now for the right worldwide?
From the BBC, I'm Tristan Redmond and I'm Asma Khaled and welcome to the Global Story on YouTube. Before we dive in, we recorded this episode before Sunday's late result came in, but it does answer all the big questions about how an election in a relatively small European country has become such big international news. This is my conversation with the BBC's Europe editor, Catcher Adler. Enjoy.
First of all, Catcher, we'd like to share with you a video from mid January Victor Orban posted on X. Um, I'm going to show it to you. Could you talk us through it please?
"Hi, this is Rob Schneider. Dear France in Hungary."
So what we have here is Victor Orban posting a video where you see the great and the good of uh the right and far right largely in Europe but also beyond. We've got former Polish President Moraveetski known also to be very much on the right. you know, sharing this idea of an anti-immigration stance, a pro-Christian stance, very euroskeepic, Alice Videl here of the AFD, the farright party of Germany. Georgia Milani, Italy's prime minister. We have a guest starring appearance of Javier Malay of uh Argentina, a real close ally of Donald Trump's, for example. Interestingly, here you also have um Benjamin Netanyahu. We even have um Rob Schneider there. He is a US comedian and all of these figures saying vote for Victor Orban. He stands for the right values and he is absolutely necessary to lead Hungary. So it's sort of support for Victor Orban ahead of his election and trying to show that although he has many opponents in Europe I mean within the European Union. This then was a video for him saying look I have loads of friends, loads of supporters, leaders of political parties and big figures in Europe and beyond.
Um well all of this was followed up by praise from the Trump administration. Marco Rubio visited Hungary in February and he said, "President Trump is deeply committed to your success because your success is our success." Then last month, President Trump himself appeared in a video uh shown ahead of Orban's um keynote speech at the CPAC Hungary conference, which is a kind of uh conservative um action committee conference, which happens um regularly in Hungary. I also want to send my best wishes to Prime Minister Victor Orban who I am endorsing as you know I am endorsing his election which is coming up pretty soon.
What does it mean that all these figures on the right uh are so explicitly endorsing Victor Orban? Why is it that they are all coming out in support of him?
So I think with Marco Rubio the the US Secretary of State there was a particular message sent actually because when did he go? So Marco Rubio had just been to the Munich Security Conference and he gave a gentleish speech to the Europeans there but with a very clear message. You we see you as our allies but only if you adhere to our value system. Now who adheres to the Trump value system? Victor Orban, what are we talking about there? Traditional family values, they would say, they would say Christian values. So when they say his success as in Victor Orban's success at the ballot box will be our success, that is seen as a success for their vision for Europe. And it is a vision that Victor Orban shares that in his 16 years in government, but particularly in the last years, he has been outspoken about. you know, it's also curbing uh woke expression as they would see in society, you know, getting control in academic institutions over NOS's and so on and so on and so on. That is the Orban playbook and it is a playbook that he would say inspired Donald Trump um in his re-election campaign and certainly Donald Trump mentioned Victor Orban on on that re-election campaign. And you do have to think, I mean, I remember thinking at the time, why are you mentioning Hungary? And Hungary is this tiny tiny European country. Even for so many Americans, they see you look at Europe as it's it's a tiny place made up of tiny countries. Well, even within the tiny countries, Hungary is a really really small one. And yet Victor Orban punches above his weight on the world stage in the eyes of Donald Trump, but also here in Europe. And the reason that you saw all of those right-wing figures in his video is for the same reason.
You mentioned uh the Orban playbook catcher. What are the um what are the elements of the Orban playbook which other leaders in Europe have adopted or would like to adopt if they get into power?
He has large control, not total, large control over the media in Hungary. He has clamped down on leftleaning or woke as he would see it non-governmental organizations. his you could use the word cronies. It's a very loaded phrase, but let's say people close to Orban have been given big positions in big state institutions, whether it's in academia, whether it's in, you know, the largest energy group MOL or or or or mole the judiciary. That's something that Brussels at the European Union criticizes often about Hungary and says it's not a free open judiciary. And so that's actually why the EU has held back funds from Hungary that Hungary depends on since 2022 because it it says this is not a proper open free and fair democracy. The rule of law is not here. But it is a playbook that parties on the to the right of the right across Europe think it's it makes sense to us. It's still a democracy still have freedom of speech. We wouldn't be able to say I mean Orban says this. The fact that um that the opposition is doing so well in the polls right now about 10 points ahead of of his party for these elections is proof that Hungary is still in a vibrant democracy, he would say. Uh so um but but it is a playbook that that others have mimicked and looked at and that Orban likes to say that Donald Trump also used part of his style and his aims, you know, when he was looking for reelection.
Now, can you talk us through what his relationship is with the EU leaders in Brussels? He often turns up at these summits and there is a lot of butting of heads.
There is his relationship with the EU is bad and it's got worse over the years. He will criticize Brussels. He will accuse Brussels as a shorthand for the EU of trying to hamper Hungarian sovereignty of imposing wokeness uh on Hungary and acting against Hungary's interest and they're trying to get migrants to enter Hungary. And what it means is that when the European Union tries to take collective action such as relocating migrants, Hungary is always right there amongst the countries that say no, we're not taking it. when it comes to Ukraine, he has blocked successive uh sanctions packages against Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the end, he he has sort of given in over that. But he is seen as a blocker and most importantly blocking this 90 billion or or hundred billion US dollar loan package for Ukraine. And people are outraged. They are sickened. So what have they done? Well, Brussels says it's taken very strong action in that, as I say, it's it's withheld funds, funds that that Hungary relies on, agricultural funds and and and more since 2022 because when it comes to Russia, Ukraine, there is a general acceptance amongst European Union countries that this is an existential war. But the fact that that Victor Orban takes such a different position in this is is really detrimental to Hungary's relationship, but it's also hurting him now. Tristan, I would argue, because of the lack of EU funds, that's part of the reason we see Hungary's economy doing really badly. Inflation is high. Voters are suffering. So, it's kind of ricocheted against Victor Orban in the end. It was useful to be against Brussels. Right now, I'm not saying that everybody in Hungary is pro-EU. That's not what I'm talking about. But not having access to those funds is hurting.
Orban's been around for a very long time. I mean, he's been a fixture on the political scene in Hungary since the fall of the Iron Curtain in the late 80s. Um, but here he is with a a very credible um opponent in the election. Um, when did you first come across this character Peter Maguar?
Well, I think he generally rose to prominence with the 2024 European Parliamentary elections and his party did very well, you know, in those elections and again using the shortand for the EU Brussels was cocka hoop because they thought right here there is a credible opposition to Victor Orban. Peter Magua used to be in Victor Orban's party. So we're not looking at a totally different political frame of mind. He is in that big group inside the European Parliament, the Conservatives, the EP, but he probably fits very much to the right of that group. So we we don't really know how much his policies will differ once he's in government because if you have a look at how his party votes in the European Parliament when it comes to migration when it comes to these hot button issues in in uh uh in Hungary they tend to vote with Victor Orban's party and otherwise they'll often abstain. Might they be different when they get into government? We don't know that. They promise at least on a foreign policy point of view and from Brussels point of view to be interested in working with the European Union interested also in working with the United States but not to change the policy towards Ukraine. So what will that mean exactly? And definitely in Ke in Brussels as well people are kind of wondering okay even if you move the blocker in chief is this going to be a a mini blocker or you know who who is Peter Miel really going to be?
It's also been a quite a spicy campaign. What can you tell us about the spicy parts of it?
So, Peter Maguire, who's the leader of the opposition, he said that there was possibly a sex tape out there. Now, Fides, the party of Victor Orban, said they didn't know anything about it. And we haven't seen this. I don't know if you've seen it, Tristan.
It has not appeared yet.
It has not appeared. So, but but that was that was brought up. But it's a pretty nasty campaign as well. And Peter Maguar certainly um made an accusation at a big rally that there were sort of top uh Russian agents that were helping run the Orban campaign. And actually I I'd like to just pause there if you don't mind Tristan just to say about something about Orban and Russia because I think this is key. He is seen as the closest to Russia. That is not what Hungarians would vote for. The way he sells it at home is that it's a pragmatic relationship with Russia. Why would you have a relationship? Well, because Russia is the place to get cheap energy from Hungarians would like access to cheap energy because they'd like to pay less. So, it's less I love Russia and more Russia is a very useful partner for Hungary. It's in Hungary's national interest. Victor Orurn's also painted Russia as um a reliable partner unlike Europe that has strings attached. He's not passionate about Russia. You know, he he he plays that very very carefully. But his critics say he is in Russia's pocket. It's got to that extent that we have certain meetings inside the EU where other countries will say, "Let's not include the Hungarians because they're worried about about leakage." So that and all of this has been refuted. Uh so yeah it it's become quite nasty and personal and yeah and the the allegations of this sex tape as well. So I would say that there is a case that um the the spicy sensationalist aspects of this election campaign are actually gerain to the coherence of the future of European politics because these suggestions that Russia is now might be a player um that interferes in elections as as some people have suggested is the case in Hungary is going to become um a regular occurrence in European politics.
What what what would you say to that?
I mean, those allegations are nothing new. The idea of Russia misinformation or disinformation and sometimes there's been proof that's been kind of presented by European governments. And in other cases, it's allegations made and assumptions made because the way that Russia operates is plausible deniability. I don't think this is a big secret or is it a scandalous or an outrageous thing to say that Russia is involved in what we call hybrid warfare and so that is not getting the guns out and it's not getting the tanks out but it can be sabotage subtifuge espionage or or or disinformation misinformation so I think there is nothing new about that is it paranoia part of it is paranoia but paranoia you could argue is a very useful weapon as for Russia if it wants to destabilize, which it seems to want to, and reduce coherence amongst European Union countries. Interestingly, critics of the Trump administration would say exactly the same thing that China, Washington under Donald Trump and Russia seek to weaken ties between European countries because they are more easily easy to manipulate if they are separated rather than working as a as a force together. What we do see with the Trump administration that you can point to directly is direct interference in European politics. You quoted Donald Trump yourself speaking out in favor of Victor Orban winning this election. Last year when there was a presidential election in Poland, uh he had his homeland defense secretary fly over to Poland to speak out in favor of the Trump friendly candidate. And I mean Trump friendly. So in the you know in the crowd people were wearing their their MAGA hats and and so on and so forth. Steve Bannon, who is very vocal in European politics, has spoken out in favor of Victor Orban and his playbook and why his victory will be so important.
Can we game out a little bit um the the possible consequences of of of either permutation of the election? So, if Orban were to lose, how big of a deal would that be?
If Victor Orban loses this election, it will be massive because it's 16 years of Victor Orban. It's 16 years of Victor Orban's self-declared illiberal democracy shining a light for other similar-minded parties and hopefuls within Europe of what they can achieve and what they could do to get to power to stay in power. It will send a message. Will it be the end of policy makers across Europe worrying about what they see as anti-democratic forces on the far right and the far left in Europe? Will it stop an end to concerns about euroskeepic nationalist parties wanting to kind of break the European Union from within? Absolutely not. I always say when things seem black and white, there's something wrong there because life is shades of gray.
That was Catcher Adler, the BBC's Europe editor. And that's it for this episode of The Global Story. We're also a podcast. We're available every weekday on bbc.com or wherever you listen. Thanks for tuning in to this one. We'll see you next time. Cheerio.