The Iran War🚨, Oil Spikes, & AI Layoffs | What It Means for Your Money & Investments

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Yeah. Yeah. Hey, yeah. Hey. Happy Monday. Happy Monday. How y'all doing? We good, man. We good. We It was a a pleasant a pleasant weekend weatherwise here in New York. Got a little chilly today. It is uh first trading day of March. Some some event was an eventful one to say the least. Eventful weekend in in the world of news and conflict. I'm sure we'll talk about a little bit, but we here, man. We here. We blessed. How you feeling? Amazing. Happy to be here. I wish I could be there with y'all in person. Um, Shotty, how you feeling? Tro, how you feeling? Good. Good. Can't complain, man. Happy to be here. Just happy to be here.

Yeah, man. Had a hell of a birthday celebration. That cake was fire, too, by the way. Glad to celebrate living life, you know. That's a fact, man. You only get one. You only get one. True. Congratulations on the on the Good Morning America um feature as well. Thank you, man. I appreciate. Yeah. Yeah. I appreciate that. Shout out to everybody at GMA, all the crew, the hosts, Gio with everybody. So, I appreciate it. Um so, yeah, man. We got to do another one. We got to do a part two. For real. I was watching early. I'm like, "Oh my gosh, with the with the news that had happened." Um, I'm like, "Yo, they better they better keep that segment." And true to their word, man. They got you got you your time in there. It was It was a good segment, man. Shout out to you, man. I appreciate that. That's love. That's love. I'm not going to lie. For sure. You said what? I said two tech index all day, every day. All day, every day. And shout out to everybody who supported. I love y'all dearly. For real. No, that was a good look. That was a good look.

All right, we got a lot to talk about. First and foremost, man, happy birthday to Troy. His birthday tomorrow. Pisces season is continuing. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Shout out to everybody that's celebrating uh their birthday this week. Uh it is definitely Pisces season. I know we got Ty. Shout out to Ty Davis. His birthday is there. Ty Friday. Our brother Court Big Court. Um Sam, I think Sam, Black Sam, shout out to Black Sam, the whole marathon team on the opening of the Long Beach uh establishment. Amazing look. uh our Pisces brother, Black Sam. Happy birthday to him. Yeah, it's Pisces season, man. I'm blessed. I'm really blessed to to be here, share another year with y'all. And um, you know, just keep going. Try to have as much impact as possible, man. Appreciate the shout. Love is love. You know how we do. Absolutely. What you doing for your birthday? I I don't know. I You know what? You know, I honestly said that I've been extremely blessed over over the past 12 months, man. and and so just being able to have another birthday, you know, with building the house and, you know, making sure that everything is going on on a personal level. Health, you know, I've been going to the doctor a lot, making sure my health is good. Um the business, making sure that that's intact. We I'm grateful, man. I'm grateful to see another year to be honest with you. I I couldn't even ask for any anything else. Health, family, and love. That's it. That's when you know life getting good. You don't even need no parties. Just like, yo, yo, man. God is good. I feel God is good. God is good all the time. All the time. That's a fact. So what are you doing though? I don't know cuz you know at this is one of those benefitout he deflected. No, no, no. When when when when you when you're in love and you got amazing spouse, they plan the day for you. So I don't really know what the plans are. I just know that there are plans. And so if you see me outside, shoot me a holler. Um but I I'll be outside. I know I got to go to the city a little bit uh tomorrow afternoon. So, I'll be out there. I don't know what we're doing, but hopefully it's something nice. I know she got something dope planned. My boy going to see my dam on his birthday. Didn't go out. Remember that text you talking about my boy? Yeah. Real quick, if I ever said anything bad, blame me. My bad. My diamond. Peace, my brother. All that. That's a fact. That's a fact.

All right. So yeah, we got um we got a big week. Uh Wednesday we back with Blackout 9 o'clock Eastern Standard Time. We got special guest Hitmaker. He gonna be coming on the show. Wow. Last week he got some things to clear up. And um yeah, we gonna be talking about last week as well. You know, it's crazy that that's the moment that it took to go viral um after everything, but it is what it is. Blackout is not Market Mondays. It's not Earn Your Leisure. It's Blackout. It's its own separate entity. It's an opinion-based late night show where we talk about a variety of different topics that not necessarily are financially related. Some are financially related. Wait, did something happen? You know, some viral, you know, but we gonna talk about it. Anybody that had any criticism, comment out tonight, please. We dropped prior information. They they went to Steve Harvey House had to get through three levels of security. Gave you all this brilliant information. It's like, "Oh, why you have her on here?" Comment tonight. If I made you money, please put yes in chat. But don't be don't be upset. And if it don't apply to you, let her fly. We have friends. Some of y' don't have a 50. If you listen to the investment advice from the show, you would have had the 50 other watch a 50 ball. Well, we gonna talk about we gonna talk about that 100,000. But we're also gonna talk about, you know, Iran. We got a lot to talk about on Wednesday. So, tune in to Wednesday, Blackout, man. Shout out to Blackout. Um, and then Thursday, 12 o'clock Eastern Standard Time, we got my boy Two Chains. True. Yes, sir. He got he got a new book out today. Actually, tomorrow. Um, so get the book. Make sure you get the book. That's important. Good brother right there. But he chopped it up with us. And um, we had a great conversation. Shout out to Two Chain. Anytime we get to see Chains is always a pleasure, you know, he's a he's he's he's a funny guy, smooth dude. So So Two Chains on Thursday at 12 o'clock. I'll play a partner. You know, we talked about and when we we speak about maturation, we talk about growth in our artists and and you know, our celebrities, we got to bring up his name a lot more because how he's transitioned into, you know, just the top of the tier father, husband, uh he's everywhere and he's he's carried himself as the same person. He's just grown. So, Love Chains, man. The book is incredible. Make sure y'all go support that. Let's run that up. Let's make sure that it hits every bestsellers list. It's an important book about intuition and having in introspective thoughts. So, shout out to him. Just overall a great person, man. Like good energy, good spirit, great business person, great artist. Like, yeah, support him. Tune in to the interview. Always a good time. Always a good time.

Ian, any announcements? Uh, once again, thank you to everybody who supported me on GMA if you haven't seen it. Um, clips will be out soon. Um, if you want to get rich from the market, go to eninvest.com and join R and Petta Stock Club. Uh, the call will be this Sunday at 9:00 PM Central. If I made you money, please put yes in chat and let's have an amazing show. Yeah, let's get to it. We going we got some other stuff to announce. We'll talk we'll say a little later. Let's get the show running. Um, so let's talk about Jack Dorsey. You know, shout out to Jack Dorsey. Spoke at Investfest last year. Get your tickets. but um cut 40% of the staff and uh as a result the um stock price went up. So, first let's talk about you know the Jack Dorsey move and then we'll talk about the broader range implications that that may have on on the stock market for a variety of other companies. But what do you think of Jack Dorsey making um that drastic cut in his staff for artificial intelligence? I think he's just merely adapting to what the environment is telling him to do. Um, and we have to be very honest like he saw Elon buy his company go in slash the workforce. The company you can argue may be thriving more than ever. And it's unfortunate on the employment side, but if you're looking at a human capital cost side, um, we'll talk about morality and investing later. it was necessary. Like if you are able to do some of these things with agents, automation, um, LLMs, it doesn't make sense to have your profit margins be low when your stock has been beat up. And you're probably one of the tech icons that that has not benefited from this LLM movement and seen the gain. Like their stock has been destroyed over the last four or five years. So I think it was a great move for the stock. I think everyone's moving to an era of efficiency. I think now he's just allowed to do so. But this isn't the first or the last move that's going to happen. Um, we're talk like 1.2 trillion in credit card debt. Over three million jobs have been lost in since 2019. I think that number by four years will probably get up to seven or six and a half million. He's just going to be one of many. But um I think he waited a while to do this so he would still be in favor, but I think it was long overdue that he let off some of the human capital cost for the business to have higher profit margins. But what do you guys think?

Yeah, I I agree with you when when you you talk about AI number one, it's the simple formula, right? Higher efficiency, higher margins, lower cost, right? So if you got higher margins, obviously you're going to see revenue go up. I think there there's part of it that that holds true. I think AI is a story in this obviously and there's plenty of other companies I'll go down a list of companies where we're seeing this happen but I also you you pointed out four to five years and so if we go to four to five years if we look back to pre- pandemic he really is at the same amount of employees that he had premic right and so there might be that that thought that maybe he had overhired right because of the demand that happened and admittedly he did and this was a course of correction Right? Like we overhired. Admittedly, what happened when you overhired and the margins weren't efficient? You saw what happened to the stock. It's been beat down. It's been it's been beat down until you you cut jobs, get it back to the levels we were at. Now again, it goes back to that formula, higher efficiency, higher margins, lower cost on the on the capital of people. And so that that's happening across the board. We can talk about Amazon who's done it. Intel, we know Microsoft for sure. UPS. I mean, the list goes on. It's a telltale sign. If they can figure out how to be more efficient and have higher margins for a lot of these companies, and we talked about profit margins, especially when it comes to Amazon, I think they're at 10%, which is improving, they're going to make sure that they can do it. And if they have to spend extra capital to do it, they're going to make sure that they do it so they can h that could happen at a faster rate. I think what we have to figure out is how we're going to adapt to this change. That's the key, right? like we can we see it happening. How will we adapt? Because I don't think it'll be like, hey, everybody's cutting their, you know, their employee uh numbers in half or 40%. That's pretty drastic. But the people who will figure out, all right, we can see the writings on the wall. How are we going to adapt? How are we going to figure out how to create frameworks so that we can be successful? The people who do that will be okay. They'll be okay.

Yeah. And let's be honest, I I know we've all heard the conversation. These are going to be staggered layoffs. No one can withstand the public backlash of letting off 60 to 70% of their workforce at one time. So, this is going to be a multi-year effort. This block needs to cut more to I mean, they went up 27%. It doesn't offset the losses if you've held it from before then, but every major tech company on Earth over the next four years is going to let off a majority of their workforce. There's no way around it. They're just staggering it so that they're not demonizing the public, but there's a lot of conversations, especially around the top 100, of how many they're going to let go and when to let go accordingly. Um, so this won't be the last cut that we we see at all by any stretch of the imagination. It's it's it's delicate. You want to go? I was going to that leads to the next question actually. Well, I just want to say it's a delicate thing because what when we talk about reducing force, right, we saw revenues go up, but if revenues go up and people lose jobs, then people don't have capital to spend. So, it's it's a delicate thing, which is why it has to be staggered. It won't be all at once. Um because if that happens, you know, obviously with all the conflict that we're seeing now, if inflation starts to rise, we got a huge problem on our hands. So, um, yeah, that leads to the next question as far as can an AI job shock crash the stock market.

It's a great question. I don't think it would be this alone because they're not doing the normal reporting of the job numbers, CPI, or even the term recession. So I think it could be a combination of factors like if we go into a multi- decade war which we will talk about in a little bit um in combination with slower hiring and contracted in a contracted economy that will lead to a crash but AI alone won't do it but is it a major pillar for sure and there isn't enough talk because often when AI comes into play people say well at some point they have to introduce universal of basic income. If you think this administration is going to do anything fair for those of us that are not like in the 1%, you have another thing coming. I don't think UBI will come under this administration. And I don't think they give a damn about if we land in a recession or not. So, is it the a major pillar? Yes. Is it the only pillar? Absolutely not. I I don't think it'll be the lever that breaks the economy wide open.

Yeah. Yeah. It'll be I I think the the most important word is that it's going to be disruptive. It'll be disruptive. it and I think what we've seen just in the these first two months of this year is that yes AI is a huge piece of this puzzle but when we talk about we step back and look at the big picture how far down are these indexes with AI and the big tech companies pull back we're down like 1% in the S&P maybe two and a half% in the NASDAQ we're not even in correction territory and these stocks are kind of just laggering which is good if you're looking at a broad economy, right? Like are utilities doing well? Are the staples doing well? Are industrials performing? Like somewhere there's a market that is actually saying, "Okay, well, you know, they always talk about rotation, rotation, rotation." For me, it's technology is always going to be part of the rotation because you need it inside of any business. But the fact that it's being spread across like we're starting to see growth in these other areas while tech is kind of consolidating is a good sign. And it tells you that yes, disruptive, not end all be all, although it feels like it if you're in some of these companies. You're right. It's still early. But if this was 2015 and we had this AI issue paired with this Iran conflict, the market would have dropped 12%. Like this generation of investors is smarter and hedge funds are pouring in more. Like, and I put this on Instagram last week. Everything is already priced in. Like I was talking to sources last week about people in the Navy being moved out of certain bases into hotels in Bahrain. This was already priced in. So everyone, and we'll talk about it in a little bit, like if you should profit or not from the war, but people knew this three weeks ago this was going to happen. This isn't like something that happened overnight. So, but I do agree that it's early. I think 2027 will be incredibly challenging on a number of fronts and I think there'll be a lot of headwinds and truth that is revealed that will send the market sliding to the downside.

Uh I'm starting to agree with you a little bit more on this 2027 thing. Bro, it I'm the some of the writing is starting to like appear on the wall for me a little bit, right? like just just forever. Like I'm extremely bullish, but I'm starting to see the signs that there's something happening here, right? We we talk about all the economic factors, we talk about the debt, but we also talk about capex spend, which has been a huge story this year. At some point in the next 12 months, we're going to have to see where this capex has gone and what it's being spent for and if you've overspent, because most of these the the mega cap companies are saying, "Look, we're not even ashamed to say that we might overspend. We just have to make sure that we get this right." So 2027 get them right. Shotty, why do you say it's early though? Like like what do you see and what do you feel business? We don't we don't we don't know the full effects of of what it's really going to do to the workforce. This is just the beginning of them laying off 40. So if the beginning is to lay off 40% of your workforce, if that's the beginning, that's that's scary. That's concerning because that's like, okay, what happens three years down the line or what happens when we enforce when now you lay off 95% of your workforce? That's one company, but what happens when that happens across industries? And so I think we're just starting to see the effects of this as far as the job market. So we don't really know how this is going to play out on the economy. Um because I mean yeah if you're looking in a situation where you have now 70% of workforce just getting laid off that's that's um pretty catastrophic. So you're saying for for Block. Block is one company but I'm just saying just in general. For the broader economy I mean you guys reported it 42% of new grads can't find a job. No, they can't find a job. Like half of across all industries think how terrifying that is. There's another study that's saying that the ones who did find a job were were let go within the first 6 to 12 months. Um, which is again interesting. I I agree. I think that it is still early, but it's also early from the other end of the spectrum as well, right? Like we don't know what the new careers will be in the space because they might they haven't been created yet. The companies that will take advantage may not be here, right? Like when you you think about how far we've come from a technological standpoint in the past 15 years, right? Like we didn't even have a Meta, we didn't have a Uber. These things weren't prominent. They are now. They're part of our society. We don't know where those what those companies will look like. Um but as technology gets better, new career paths will will will be introduced as well.

But the scary thing about it is we're not we're not necessarily seeing new career path. Yeah. Exactly. So it's like all right if yes if um people may no longer you know at some point in time take mass transportation but they are driving cars now that's a new industry for people that are actually making cars but what we're seeing is technology companies replacing humans with robots or artificial intelligence. So that's not necessarily promising for a lot of new jobs. There's there's a certain amount of jobs that that creates on the computer science side, but it's not like we're creating new industries where it's like, okay, we moved from cotton, but now we are in factories. Like we're not necessarily creating new industries where workers are needed. Uber would be a perfect example of that, right? Transportation is the same industry. They've disrupted and changed the way that we transport, right? We transport goods, we transport each other. Whereas like we'll we'll see what the technology provides. We I don't know yet. That's a perfect example too because now autonomous driving is taking off of a downgrade. Yeah. And even with that if you look from the crash of 2008 Yeah. 2015 that job market slid down right career-wise from 2015 to 2025 even if us using an example of Uber there isn't broadscale benefit there. And also with capex, which is really scary for all the companies that are spending all this money on capex, no one except Nvidia tells you how to get they're going to get a return. Like if I was to say you Rashad Troy, give me $100 million. And you're like, what's the return? I'm like I'll tell you later after I build a data center, you would tell me go [ __ ] myself. and and here here's here's here here's the push back and the guy the companies let's take the metas the Amazons the Google's Microsoft Nvidia will put to the side the people that are actually spending it or committing to would you agree that these are some of the greatest CEOs that have ever walked this planet. Yeah, but that doesn't directly correlate to helping. No, I'm just asking I'm just asking I'm just asking. U in that position they would say you're leading the witness but to answer my brother. I would say yes. Yes. And they have some of the greatest CFOs under their, you know, their jurisdiction. My thing is like, can they all get when he spend all that money on the metaverse? Can they all afford to get this wrong? It's not about getting it wrong if if you're making more money for for your shareholders and you making more money for your company. I was going to say if they get it wrong because that's the key. It's like they're trying to say how are you justifying the spending? How are you justifying the spending? Meta is the first one to say like here we we acquired a company. Here's how we're justifying the spending. Look, we've I like Meta and I've said that from the very beginning. I'll cut you off. This is different than 2022 for them for sure. Yes. But they're the first ones to say here's how we can make revenue from it. We don't know what Amazon's going to do just yet, right? They haven't released it. They're still having to spend. The the idea is that do you believe do you believe in these companies and the fact that they can't afford to get it wrong? Well, there's two I think we're also talking about two different things. Going back to what Ian has said as far as Uber didn't paraphrasing that's not really helping a lot of people, right? You still struggling if you're a Uber driver. But even that, right, it's like, okay, the number one we went we said this before, but if you remember, put in chat, what's the number one career for men in in on on Earth? Like, what's the number one career for men in Earth? Like, what do most men do as far as percentage wise? What's the highest percentage of work that men do on on the planet Earth? Course question time. Put in chat if you remember from a couple months ago when we went over this. Do remember clue voice. Do remember? Yes. Drivers. Yeah. So that that is a a lowkilled career. That's why so many people could do it. You don't have to have a education. You don't even have to be able to read. You don't have to have to know math um to be able to drive. And you can drive you can drive a truck, you can drive a cab, you can drive a school bus. There's a variety of different things. That's the number one occupation percentage-wise for men on planet Earth. Now, what happens when autonomous driving wipes out at least even 20% of that? Like we're looking at long we're looking at long-term this is going to be long-term effects for people that's going to be very detrimental to society as far as not being able to find a job if you can't find a job now. And Bill Gates said that the number one profession that's under attack is education and medical. So those are high skill education. Now you got something like driver which is low low skill. So you're gonna have mass layoffs in low skill and you're gonna have mass layoffs in high skill.

I think we're we're I don't I don't think we're we're so far away from having autonomous at the large scale. Whereas if you look at EV sales here in America, look at what the the percentages of people who actually have EVs compared to the rest of the the automotive industry is very small. So taking a 20% sh I don't know if we're there in the next 20 years. We may not be there. So those those jobs will still be there and that's just here in America. Like we're talking about developing countries that don't even have that technology to even force it. You know what I mean? So I think those those are still stay. All right. You're talking about jobs. Yeah. They're already disappearing. But let's but we got to move on. I don't want to stick because we we do have a guest coming on later. But I will say this one final point real quick. Yeah. Whenever a company says we're looking to disrupt an industry, it's no different than the war attack, they're looking to unstabilize a current ecosystem and take the market share for themselves. Even though there's been an addition of Uber, Door Dash, that delivery system, that does not replace the jobs that were lost from the 2008 crash. the job market is still those jobs that were erased in 2007 8 and nine never came back. So to your point Rashad because I think we arguing two different points but to be very clear the quality of the job market over the last 10 years has not dramatically improved and that and that shows and that shows in the wages. But that but they'll argue that people have jobs right like that'll be the argument. Yes, they're not the highest paying but people are employed. A lot of people aren't employed though. Um, well, according to their unemployment rate. Well, I don't I mean releasing numbers. Well, they they did, but I mean, you could say like, hey, who's who's gauging those numbers? Like, do we believe the numbers? Uh, on March 600 a month. That's a fact. On March 6, we'll be in Queens St. John's University in Queens, New York u for the financial freedom summit presented by CAP. Thank you. C campus campus coin invest in collaboration with Queens South High Schools. Uh this year there will be um continue to grow under the leadership of Superintendent Joseph Evves. Uh we'll be speaking with 1500 New York City public school students about ownership, investing, building, wealth, uh and a variety of different other things. So yeah, tap in um follow Campus Coin Invest for more information. But yeah, a couple days we'll be in Queens. So speaking of high school students in the Queens area. So, shout out to Queens. Queens get the money.

Um, let's talk about oil. We will be talking about Iran in a little bit. We didn't talk about Iran yet, but what what price of oil becomes dangerous for stocks? I know a lot of people are talking about $80. Um, that isn't the number. The number is $93.50. If we get to that level, it will start to have some negative effects in the economy. Um, I know people have been asking about an oil trade and how do I play oil futures? It's too late. But sad and alert, if we get to 9350, it will give you a reason to be concerned about how stocks are going to perform, how the economy is going to go. The higher the oil prices, usually the worse the economy does. So 80 is not that it's like a snooze alarm. It's the first alarm to put on, but it's not the real level. $93.50 is a is a real level that you need to worry about. If we get there, you'll have some push back and contraction in the market long term. Yo, that's crazy. You had 90 I I was going higher. I was going higher. I I had I had it at between 110 and 120 based on historical like the historical data. If you look at any recession that's tied to oil, uh 73 oil embargo 79 Iranian revolution. Uh in 2008, oil was at $147. In 2022, we were at 130, although it was shortlived. Remember that one month we had crude that was ne that was crazy. Was negative. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So like 110 to 120 that that's that's cautionary. That's red flag. That means gas prices will be surging, right? Consumer spending will fall. Uh inflation will be the the conversation um in that time. And most importantly, and this is important and this is why I'm bullish uh in 2026 and I was in 2025, corporate earnings will start to fall because their margins If they get above that level. If they get above that level. Oh, for sure. Oh, yeah. for corporate earnings. And so if you looked every earnings, if you look I mean I think in 2025 79% of the S&P had positive earnings growth uh for the year, right? We're off to a a pretty similar start. I know stocks have pulled back and companies have pulled back, but if you look at their earnings growth, they're all making they're still making money. We start seeing oil in those levels, that changes. And that's that's dangerous, right? And that's those are the things we can't control. Like when we foresee these things, we can't control that, right? Those having a conflict, starting a war, that's we we can't right we don't have a say in that, right? But we knew it was going to come because he was like warheavy president and once you have investment in Hallebertton, Palunteer uh NLC, you know, he's going to lean and use that especially as some information come out. Yeah, Yeah. I mean, even if you you follow the the the chess board, right? Like Venezuela, what did we take from them? Iran, what do they have that can help contribute to what we took from Venezuela? Y allegedly. Um the writing is the writing is there. Um but if we get to, like I said, if we get to those levels, 110, 120, that's uh yeah, we got Yeah, we got to be mindful. And then we start to see maybe the VIX spike again. We talked about the VIX and RSI last week. VIX starts and it got up to 25 today. drop back down. But if it starts getting in that 2530 range. Okay. Okay. Someone asked, "Can I tell why I came up with the number of 9350?" If you get your tickets to Investfest and I doing a presentation, I will tell you why those levels are so important. Go to investfest.com. See you there. Investfest.com. Black T VIP night. Black tie this year. Um, okay. Let's talk about Hit the like button and share. We will be talking about Iran shortly. very shortly.

Um, should you invest or pay off debt? I think that that was a question from the audience perhaps. They said, "Should I use my $300,000 inheritance to pay off debt or invest in the stock market? How would you divide it?" Um, it's a great question. Uh, kudos to the brother who sent this in. Should I pay off my house or invest into the market? Um, 100%. If it was my choice, I will put all of the money into the market. The thing that people never tell you about paying off debt is that the opportunity cost that you're going like that 300,000 in five years could just long-term investing, no options, no futures, nothing, no warrants alone could be 1.1. Mhm. And it's a bad feeling. If this is your only time having 300,000, it really sucks to give it to a company and they send you a letter saying, "Hey, thank you for paying this off." you're at zero. It's one of the worst feelings in the And guess what? As soon as that happens, your HVAC gonna go out or a meteor is going to fly through. You got to get a new roof. It's about opportunity cost. Um, a lot of times, and I like Dave Ramsey a lot, but but paying down debt, there is a heartbreaking feeling that comes with getting to zero and knowing you haven't pushed your financial situation forward. I would say invest in the market for five years, then pay off the house with those proceeds and then you'll have five 600 $700,000 left after. I mean, you'll be a-ok. Okay.

Yeah. I think it comes down to what you um can expect to earn. If the if the earn is higher than the interest rate, then that's how you know whether So, for instance, if your mortgage interest rate is 6%, but you expect to earn 12% in the market, well, you're doubling. So, like you said, the opportunity cost, you're actually losing 6% by by not actually investing in the market. Now, if it's like a Lone Shark situation or out of control credit card, that's 28%. Oh, yeah. 30%. Yeah. Yeah. Then that might that might be something to consider because now you may not be able to get 30% every single year in the stock market. So, now that might be that that's a different situation. But most of the time, you don't have you're not going to have that. when it comes to those type of large debts, usually a student loan payments and home mortgages. So, if you have a home mortgage, as Ian said, or a student loan payment, um, as long as you continue to make monthly payments and you're not, you know, just struggling completely, struggling financially underwater, um, as as long as you can make more money in an investment than your interest rate, then the debt is not is not a crippling thing. So people that say debt is all debt is bad. I don't necessarily agree with that. I think the the premise of it is that yeah, you don't want to just be swimming in debt, but all debt is not bad as long as you can manage the debt and as long as you're doing something more productive with the money than the the amount of money that you actually borrowed. That's a fact. That's a fact. I I had this story and I shared it before um about investing and I was trying to do the responsible thing like I closed on the house in 2022. I was like, you know what, let's just estimate that it's going to cost me $10,000 a month, right? To make sure that the bills, everything's escrow account. And so every month I created a mortgage account and every month I put $10,000 in it since 2022. Right now, you can do the the math on that. That's a couple hundred,000. I'm like, "All right, perfect. I re I already have three years of the mortgage paid." Then I thought to myself, what if I would have just put what if I would have just put that in the S&P? Now granted, I have a brokerage account and it's it's okay. The the brokerage account is okay. Shout out to everybody. I still ain't got it. But had I put the 10 that money into the S&P since 2022, you're talking about a year that we net netted what 20% 17% and 23%. that I probably and I did the calculations on it. If I would have kept that strategy, I probably would have made like 1.7 million. See opportunity cost Aisha. That's the other part you fighting against tailwind of upside. Shout out to you. Thanks. Crazy. What I would have put into the the the account that brokerage account would have paid for the house. Meanwhile, I'm putting money aside to pay for the house. Yep. And the crazy part, the mortgage companies are taking part of your capital and deploying it into the market. And the banks are fractional reserve lending on the capital and rotating it into the market, but telling you to pay them to fund raise. Yeah. Yeah. And then somebody said, um, by that logic, then everyone with a paid off house should get another mortgage and invest, but no one does that. Balance is key. Well, yeah. That's not that's not necessarily a bad idea. It's So, okay, I actually did that. That's something that's actually I can actually speak on this firsthand experience. I I purchased a property in cash and I I refinanced it and cash out refi. It's called a cash out refi. And I got more money from the cash out refi than I actually used to purchase the property because the property was under undervalued when I brought it. And when they appraised it, it appraised higher than I purchased it. So yeah, that's not technically a bad strategy. Um if if you know what you're going to do with the money, if you're going to invest the money into Aisha Diaz, then that might not be a great return on return on investment. Here we advantage that you have that most don't. You are incredibly conservative and incredibly patient. You can't refy a house and then go get zero day expiration options on it and then like this is going to be my way to freedom. Yeah. Somebody said somebody says don't borrow money to invest. My question is my question is why why not? If I could do it all over again in 2020, if I could have got the rate of like less than 4%, I would have borrowed every dollar I could to put into the market. If I could have like got $5 million at 4% 5%. Depends on because that's literally what you're doing when you buy a house. You're you're literally borrowing money for an investment. You're literally doing that every So, I just think that I'm not saying that that's the the right thing to do in every situation, but blanket statements like don't borrow money to invest. If I said, okay, if I said I'mma loan you $100,000 at a 5% interest rate and you can invest and earn 30% a year. Well, that's a good investment. Why Why would you not use put in a bad investment? They can put it in a bad vehicle. They're they're going to be uneducated, undisiplined, and and do something that they shouldn't. But that's a bad that's a good I mean, that's 25% net. Yeah, but they're going to put it in something that goes up 40% and it crashes 55%. Most times. Most times. You're right. That's why I said you can't skip a step. You can't skip a step. You got to go through Yep. you gota go. And you only learn to be patient and diligent and only invest in high quality companies after you've been burned by bad ones. Like some people like, "Oh, why don't you invest in this?" I'm like, "It's not a good asset." You don't know it because you've never lost a hundred grand in a day in the market. 200 grand a day in the market. You don't know what that feels like. So, but what do I know? I love you all. Yeah. That's a feeling. It's a feeling. You know what happens when those days happen? I'll take a picture of it just to say like how you feel. You okay? Effed up. [ __ ] You've had better days. For sure. Feel like Maduro watching. Oh, Jesus take the wheel. That's a fact.

Um, okay. So, let's go into this Netflix Warner Brothers situation. What's your thoughts? Um I think it's really fascinating going back to the debt conversation. I don't know what the the parameters were but my first thought was as a executive is I'm happy I would be happy to not have to service a 90 billion debt bill like just hypothetically if the debt was 2%. What does that payment look like? There's a lot of conversation about if Netflix should have forced their way into a bid, but sometimes the best investment is the one that costs so much, that is going to be a burden or a headache to you. Um, and also too, I know Larry personally guaranteed the debt, but I want to ask you guys being the media mogul that you are, is this investment in linear TV worth it? you I I get the the swath of companies being bundled together. This reminds me of the big short when you're having credit default swaps put together in a bucket. It it's like a media index fund they put together. But in linear television, is that worth what they paid for it? So I I think it's a win for Netflix. But I wanted to get you guys perspective on the media side. Should they have paid this much? And was Netflix smart to stay out of this deal? Um, couple things. I think what was that? Wednesday sh He Sha came over to my house. I said, "Look, I typed up this this piece, you know, about Netflix and Warner Brothers. I think they might walk away from the deal today." I was just like, I just had I just, you know, the way things are looking, the the four days, you know, David Ellison being at the State of the Union, Tess Arinos being at the White House the next day. I'm just like, yeah, you're threatening Susan Rice if if you guys get the deal. It just felt like all those things are happening. And then if you know, it reminded me of the conversation we've been having all 2025 about Larry Ellison and the fact that he is one of the wealthiest people in the world that doesn't have a quote unquote form of media. They've all done it, right? Like Zuckerberg has it. Um Jeff Bezos has it. Obviously Elon has it. And here is Larry Ellison without any form of media. Yes, he's known for software obviously in Oracle. I think he was willing to pay whatever it took to get this. In fact, that's why they made the bid so ridiculous that Netflix said,

"You know what? Sometimes walking away is the best deal."

Interesting.

And so they got CBS and they got CNN, right inside this deal amongst other properties, for sure. But I'm just talking from the media standpoint. You, you, you got Fox, and now you got CBS and you got CNN now controlled by supporters of, you know, the the current administration, which is interesting. And I think that was Larry Ellison's, you know, goal the whole time.

For Netflix, though, why I thought like this would be a good opportunity for them was that, okay, you were on the hook for 72 billion, and now that goes back to the company. In addition to that, you get 2.8 billion from walking away. So now your net, you got 75 billion back into the company. What does that do?

Well, how long is it going to take Warner Brothers and SkyDance Paramount to become profitable from this deal? You want to talk about debt? How long? Remind people how much they paid for it. 110 billion. I don't. They bought it at $32 a share. All types of incentives. How long you think it's going to take for them to become profitable? Right.

Netflix goes back into regularly scheduled programming. Now they have actually more money to now go out and pursue live sports to stay further ahead in the streaming space. I thought it was a great opportunity for them to say, "All right, let's walk away. Let's continue what we were doing. We were going down the right path. Let's keep going."

If you watch since they announced this merger, they've been down 23%. They've been hit hard. Obviously, they had to split. I'm like, "This is a good opportunity for them." Sometimes walking away is the best thing you can do. I, I like this for Netflix.

Uh, Netflix stock is up $21 this week. So what's the, what's the, what's the trajectory for for next for nexttail for Netflix stocks?

I, I think, um, they've gotten beaten up unfairly. The number one thing that investors love is certainty. So now that you know that this chess piece isn't on the table, I think it's back to reg regularly scheduled programming. Also too for Netflix, like Trump said he was going to come after a member of the board. You don't want any political combatants coming after your company. So now you're out of the clear, right? You, you survived, unlike Eleno, from this corporate battle. Um, they did a great job going back to capex spending of not overspending. And also too, like you said, they have capital now. If, if they start to make a creators fund or pay creators more at Netflix, which is one of the weaknesses of their alliance, I think they can get some great headwinds. Um, I think we should see them to continue to rally. And I think them and Meta are the two companies I'm looking to see how quickly they rally to then give us an indication of where the stock market is going to go. Netflix and and Meta are my two canaries in the coal mine for '26 to see how this market shakes out.

But Shotti, for you, like, do you think this is a great investment on Paramount? Like, if you had 160 laying around, right? Would you pay 110 for the swath of companies that Paramount got that deal? Like, I went and looked. I'm like, there are no hit shows on none of them [ __ ] broadcasts.

They have HBO. Don't do that to HBO. Don't do that to HBO, man. Definitely. Definitely outdated. But I also think that it's interesting. I saw the, um, I forget exactly what he was, his title, but he was, he was a high-ranking executive of Netflix in the UK, like high, like president or something like that. And he was saying that talking about YouTube, and he was just saying how YouTube has such an unfair advantage because like NBC and he was saying like the BBC, but like CBS, all of these shows, they put their content on YouTube for free.

Yep. Smart. So he was like, he was like, "How, how can we compete? How can we compete when network television is putting their content on YouTube for free, getting paid on the back end through AdSense, but YouTube is not paying for their content? They would never put their content on Netflix for free. Netflix has to license hundred million dollar deals to get old shows, reruns for a two-week run rate, >> even sports."

So, it's like, yeah, I to answer your question, I don't think that was a good idea for them to pay that much for that for that suite. But, um, I think then Netflix has other problems outside of that, not just YouTube, but just other forms of streaming, um, that is is coming up and short-form content and different things of that nature. It's like, you know, they're spending a lot of money. This podcast thing. I have suspicions that it's not working. That's just my, that's just my suspicions. I don't know if it's true or not.

From the beginning and I and I. How much money you going to throw at Floyd and Mike Tyson? How it's like you're doing a lot of spending.

And that's on, they're going to have those on Netflix?

Yeah.

All of them.

Well, the Mike Tyson and Floyd one, I think. Yeah. Pacquiao, too.

Pacquiao, too. So, it's like, I don't know. I don't know if, if this model is really sustainable long-term.

I, I think they're they're so far ahead. The difference between the the free content that the the Paramounts of the world, the Comcast of the world. That that's like the network linear. They have obviously shows that are meant for streaming. Um, ABC Disney would be an example of that, right? Like, right now, if you don't have Hulu, how do you watch Paradise? You can't, right? Like, you got to wait, right? So like, they, they'll make specific things. I think what Netflix has done is had original content that people have loved and come to adore. And they've they've done it like every year we think like, "Oh, that's it. They can't have another one." And then it's another one, right? It's it's Stranger Things, >> right? Uh, and then it's Wednesday, right? Like, they, they've been pretty good with that. I think now, I don't know if it's original content now. I think they take the Apple model where it's like, yeah, we could bring new products to to the table, or we can get new regions. That's always been my thing with Netflix. How do we become more of an international brand where it can be serviced other places? Disney has has been able to do that a little bit, right? If, if you talk about some some other countries, how does, how does Netflix get into that space? Because in terms of streaming, outside of YouTube, they're number one. Disney would be number two. And then I don't even know, you can flip a coin on who number three is now that Paramount and all that mixed together. But those, those are the two clear favorites. I think the international play for them is there. Uh, and I, they have the capital. So it, it'll be interested to see what they do. I think this, it goes, it crosses back over 100. I wouldn't be surprised to see that 115.

Yeah. At some point, I, I think it'll get to like 110, 111. But to business, okay, for my investors, whenever you hear capital being spent, first thought has to be, how are they going to 5x or 11x this? Rashad, to your point, Netflix has to figure out a business model where you're paying zero for the content and it's high produced. So you keep the same standards and you have to incentivize creators. Bring me a hit show that is shot well, lit well, edited, everything that you need, and we'll pay you on the performance model. Cuz how much longer can you continue to pour out 20 to 40 million for a show for the retention rate for them to be f like, I don't hear nobody talking about Stranger Things.

Yeah.

I hear [ __ ] about VCNA or Will or like, where's a video game? There's no back-end model. And it sucks just from a cost basis to put all this money into a product and people burn through it through 3 days.

And you could. Yeah, you could watch the show in 4 days. That's that's why they got podcasts because it's low cost.

And it's something that you could, it's sustainable for for years weekly. Um, but okay, let's talk about Iran. Let's get into this.

Um, the moment we all been waiting for. So hit your like button and share. Okay, everybody knows by now America, Israel waged war on Iran, um, couple days ago, bombed, killed the supreme leader, then killed the new supreme leader. Iran, uh, retaliated and, um, has strikes on different military bases throughout the Middle East. Qatar, UAE, they bombed the oil facility in in Saudi Arabia today.

Saudi.

Um, Kuwait.

Mhm.

Okay. So, this is we're going to talk about it on Blackout for sure.

For sure. Because we have to because we have to in in detail on the geopolitical side and different things of that nature. But just in short, um, this was something that like you said, Ian, I don't think it was too much of a surprise. I mean, they had the the ships there for 3 weeks just parked out. Um, so I don't think it was like, oh, what the hell just happened? But

still a little, you know, a little shocking that it would just escalate so quickly. Um, but you know, when you have orders, you must follow them.

So, um, we'll talk about that on Wednesday. But, uh, what, what's the, what's the implic, what's the implication for the stock market? Nothing controversial take, but this is already, and I, and I, I want to give complete credit to Shelly, um, on Red Panda Stock Club call. Tune in every Sunday to get breaking news and information. She was bringing this up four months ago. Um, but this has been priced in already. Like, and I put it on Instagram and I didn't know it was going to be such a, such a backlash for it. But why are we looking for the investment play on war and genocide? I was the same one who said don't invest in Palantir for the same reason. But if you want to talk about alpha and edge in a scenario, this is not 1992. The Palantir, North Grumman, General Dynamics, Exxon, that was priced in a year ago. That that's not the move.

So, as far as the implication, the, uh, and it's interesting that it happened on Saturday and not Friday and not a Monday because he knows what impact that would have had on the market. It was cushioned over the weekend. So, by the time we got to the futures market on Sunday night, yeah, oil popped up, but it's also reverting back to the mean now. So, like, in terms of three months, we won't even be talking about the situation and how it's affected the market. Most of the indexes rose as a result after that that midday drop, and we were good. This isn't April of last year. It's not one of those situations.

Um, now, if we can, now, my concern is if because of the situation we enter up in a half-decade war that's going to have some imp like implications for sure. But this week, not at all. What do you guys think?

Yo, it sounds like you're being facetious when you say nothing, but like.

I'm dead ass serious.

I'm with you. I'm with, I mean, when when we think about the market that we've seen, especially since we've had Market Mondays, and we've talked about this before. Think about all the things that should have created a market.

You, you had a pandemic.

You had global conflict.

You had an alleged assassination attempt on on a candidate.

Y you had a recession that was not announced.

A recession that happened.

A bare market which was quick.

You had obviously a bull market.

You had liberation day, right? Liber like what liberation day looked like, that the aftermath of that.

And comparing it to this, right? Watching the news on Saturday, it felt very like, oh my gosh, where are we headed for the market? Right? Obviously, you know, we, you pray for the people's lives who are being lost, right? And war, you know, there's always going to be cowards. And you think about that first. Then it's like, where, where are we headed with this? Like, how are we going for a downturn Monday? And then you all Sunday night, you're looking at it, and you know around 7 o'clock, you see those futures, and it's down, and then around 10 o'clock, you're like, wait, do this isn't really. And you know what's funny?

It didn't, it didn't move the needle. And then your post came up about it being priced in on my phone. And I was like, people got to understand that part, right? Like, there's going to be a separation.

There, there's going to be a separation of emotion and investing. And this is, this is one of those stories. Like, I got a few texts that like, yo, yo, should we sell everything? I'm like, you don't do anything.

Don't, don't do anything.

Don't let this thing play out. But I mean, the market is resilient. I don't. Here's my question to you. Have you ever seen it this resilient like this five-year stretch? Have you ever seen it this resilient?

No. But is this resilient because they're waiting for the mass exodus and when they finally announce the recession, he will have given his people and we can talk about the Koshi prediction market scandal that's kind of going on.

Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about it.

But it's also, it's also resilient because it's artificially being propped up.

Propped up. That's what I'm saying. Yeah.

That's not that's not sustainable. That's not. It's not. It's not resilient because fundamentals are strong.

Solely because of the economic.

It's being it's being artificially.

Wait, which fundamentals are strong?

American economy.

In what assa? $1.2, $2 trillion in credit card debt, 42% as you guys reported, of college students can't find a job. Debt's GDP is at 150% and the normal baseline by 2035 should be 220%. America's broke and most of the companies are broken underneath them.

Well, can I go back?

Yeah, of course, my brother. Are, are corporate earnings gaining or are they losing?

In the past year?

Has inflation gone down?

Like, you could use those metrics, but.

Even the corporate earnings thing can be. They're buying, they're buying from each other. They're manipulating.

But that finish that.

Hold on, guys. Can we get along? Because I don't want the interwebs.

This is a great point. No, it's a great point. That's a great point. Finish that.

They're buy, they're buying from each other. Listen, if I got a [ __ ] chip, right? Let's be real. If I got an H200, Shotti has an R200. Troy, you got a T200. I give Shotti two billion. You, Rashad gives you three and you give me five. Even I never wanted to say it because it was Nvidia. The circular economy thing is complete [ __ ] [ __ ].

It's complete [ __ ].

And that's all fair. I'm not knocking that. In fact, I was the one, remember I was like, circular economy, like.

Fluid circle.

That's not the entire, but that's not the entire economy. In fact, earlier we were talking about the broad spread of the economy, right? When we're talking about industrials, those those are moving too. That has nothing to do with the circular chip movement, and those are still moving, right? But they all are related to AI, right? If we're talking about energy, look at what GEV's done. Look what Caterpillar's done, right? If we're talking about ind, look what, look at industrial, look at the, I mean, we're actually watching the growth happen. It's happening.

Right. I'm saying so it's happening.

You can have a stronger economy and stronger corporate earnings. I'm going sound like Bernie Sanders. Partially pushed up through corporate buybacks.

And, yeah.

The [ __ ] be inflated.

Fair, but I'm just saying it still shows resilience. It could fool.

You know what I mean? I shout to Ben Carson, the things that the market has, uh, been resilient through, uh, Kuwaiti conflict in 1998, Afghanistan war '01, Iraq war 2003, Syrian civil war 2011, Iraq war 2013, Ukraine crisis 2014, Yemen 2014, Hamas 2023, COVID 2020. I agree a thousand percent. I've always say that the market is ready to stay up. Even though the market has been this resilient, I haven't in my life seen, and I'm pro hyper concentration. I've never seen this much focus and hyper concentration on a few companies, and no one mentions 200 of the other companies and how they're doing.

And the biggest lesson in all this, the war, AI, is find a group of companies that are AI war destruction proof. That's the real lesson. McDonald's is one of them. Amgen is one of them. Lily is one of them. I think Nvidia is one of them. But pick four and be good.

Do, do you think he will allow, when I say he, the president with his ego, and his narcissist, would you, do you think he will allow some the market to tank? I feel like he will make sure that he puts in restrictions and make sure that this thing stays afloat. Like announcing the recession, like Biden did, by any means necessary. I, I mean, I don't know. What do y'all think?

Some things is out of your control. He's going to try his hardest. Of course, any president tries their hardest. That's that, that's not just him. That's Biden. That's.

Obama set us back.

Anybody, every president's going to try their hardest, but some things are out of your control.

Even, even how he manipulates the market, there's a certain at a certain point, you can't manipulate everything. If that was the case, there would never be a bull market. There would never be a bare market.

George Bush didn't want that to happen. He didn't want that to happen. That's not.

See, I'm, I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm with you. There should not be a bull market. But something in my mind tells me they actually want this to get better opportunities to position themselves to buy themselves. The same way Roseville short-term, you talking about short-term market manipulation. He's done.

Allegedly. Allegedly suggesting that that could happen.

He's done that several different times.

He's doing it now.

But that's different from a prolonged bare market.

He doesn't want a prolonged bear.

No, that's what I'm saying. Do you, that I'm saying what you're saying.

Doesn't want it, but.

Right. He's not going to allow that to happen. I feel like.

But I don't know if he, if it might be out of his control at a certain point. You, like I said, the president does have tremendous power, but doesn't have all of the power in the world.

True. But this is just so unprecedented when you look back to liberation day, when you look at to these tariff fiascos, when you look to a guy who's saying, hey, it's a good day to buy, and we watch the market just go on a tear. Yo, the Dow's at 50,000. Here's where we're h. It's like he's not just saying these things. It It feels like maybe he is. But then I'm like.

Right. Look, he couldn't, he couldn't, he couldn't help crypto.

No matter what they did. They put all their might into it.

That this is the most crypto-friendly administration in history ever.

Yeah.

And Bitcoin same price, lower than what it was when he first came in office. That's a, that's a telltale sign that sometimes no matter how much you want something to happen.

Some, some things are out of your control.

Crypto is that's a good example. But.

I might even argue just to play God's advocate here that yo, they already ran up to six billion before.

No, no, he, he, you know, he, he made.

Their family personally going to.

He made billions of dollars. I'm saying for the crypto industry. Oh.

There's a crypto industry and there's a, there's a crypto lobby.

Yeah. Even people like Robin Hood and Coinbase.

Yeah.

They, they're lobbyists.

Yeah.

And it.

The administration tried to help crypto as much as it could.

And it hasn't helped.

It's still. We're still early.

It's still early, but it's almost.

Well, let's. And we'll see.

At a certain point, it's like.

He's been in one. This is year two for him.

Yeah.

So, let's see at the end of his term where we're at.

Cuz that that would be the tell.

But no, he does not want the stock market to crash. No, he want.

He prop that [ __ ]. But we'll see. We'll see. And like I said, we will talk about, um, we will talk about Iran on Blackout. The other side of the conversation.

The other side of what conversation? I gotta call my dad and legal. I'm with you. You my dog. You know the fire. I gotta.

Yeah, for sure. Because it's a conversation that we need to have that's tough to have as to the underpinning of why and why now.

Why?

Why now? The logistics of it, the countries that are affected.

The chess pieces that are moving.

Yep.

It's very interesting. That's one of those those things about social media. It's like they'll give you a tea leaf or something and then it's like, nah, I gotta go figure this out. I gotta go, let me go a deeper dive into is this real?

Mhm.

Yeah.

Build a AI proof, um, war proof portfolio. That is my investment advice of the year. That is not moved regardless of what happens. It's tough to do, but if you listen to me and need insight, go to ianinvest.com and join Red Panda. But that is your assignment for this year is to find four companies that are indestructible and unshakable regardless of what happens geopolitically. That is your assignment for this year.

The Clintons gave their deposition.

Saw that.

So how was that?

Um, you talk about it Wednesday.

Yeah, we talking about Wednesday.

It happened.

It happened. I don't know nothing. But even on the Iran thing, like I feel like if you don't, if you don't know, if you don't know by now, then there's not even no point of us really even talking about it because America has the the stupidest citizens in the history of of any civilization.

That's.

What? That's a bit scale. That's.

Egregious. America, that's a bit much. America's not educated.

There's a large portion of the country that's not.

At scale. And they, and so the fact that they was able to pull this off and there's still a lot of people that are perfectly fine with it. There's nothing to say anyway.

They have tra through measures of food, water, we talked about on on Blackout, Wi-Fi, birth control. I don't know if you guys saw that even the deer pava shot is has allegedly 43% more chance of giving women brain tumors and the Rockefeller institution owning the American education system. If the citizens are quote unquote uneducated, it is done by design as a part of the.

Yeah. Tell them what you think they should know.

Yeah.

Yep.

Okay. Then my bought a media company. So any information that you get is filtered a certain way as well. Allegedly.

It's like, "Hey guys, let's, um, let's, let's bomb, let's bomb a nuclear facility for a country that doesn't have nuclear bombs and then let's bomb the country so they don't get nuclear bombs." But they've been two weeks away from nuclear bombs since 1996.

Yeah.

That's a good idea.

And you obliterated them in June. That's what, that's what I'm saying.

Yeah. Don't forget about all over, right?

Maybe there's a new definition for that.

Yeah. Um, what, what stocks is going to benefit from Iran? You just talked about how you don't think any stocks will benefit, but are there any stocks?

I didn't say any, but, but I want to be very clear. And and for those of you who like, well, uh, Apple has done evil and the I've talked about that too. I talked about Palantir before all y'all had all this insight. I was the one saying this [ __ ] because I was doing it beforehand. I talked about the ills of investing and the cobalt mining and all the beers, and I get you. But I want to be clear, okay? The the stocks that you guys want to hear, Palantir, Lockheed, AVAV, it fell apart, North Grumman, General Dynamics, the trade was there months ago. Months. Like I got sources there telling me, "Yo, troops get moved here." So if I knew this was going to happen weeks ago, when do you think Alex Karp [ __ ] knew?

Skate to where the is going to be. Not to the by the time you get the news, it's been filtered through the channels that they are allowed to say on their broad airways. It's too late. You got to go find the next trade. You got to find the [ __ ] dinosaur trade and the next viral outbreak. That's an issue. This isn't. So, of course, Palantir had a little pop today, but it's not like 2012 where this news would have given you a 15 or 20% bump. Even the futures market, it popped up on Sunday. It's already regressing to the mean. We'll probably be back in a 64, 62 range in two weeks, three weeks. So, it's too late.

Yeah. I feel like we've had this conversation like four times in the past year when it was like, "Hey, if he's elected, what companies do we think we should be looking at?" Here go the companies. Uh, then he is elected and like, "Hey, he's big, right, on on defense. He's big on war. Here are the companies." Then they bomb in June, right? Allegedly obliterate. Hey, those are the companies, right? These are the and Rathon. I know you gave a good, a great list. I would add Rathon in there as well. RTX.

Even Boeing, you might even want to add, but it's the same companies. It's the same companies. I like the post in there.

This the real thing.

You an amazing interview that you guys had with the gentleman who talked about exits. The other part that's not being talked about, all the money on these wars are private institutions. All like the 50x's they're not public. They're not letting the public get to their private coffers like that anymore.

Not happening.

Now, if you got in and Anderoo at 11 bucks or eight bucks a few years ago and now you're seeing an upswing for when they're going to on board and be a part of publicly traded market, you would have saw a swing up there. But a 5 to 7% move isn't a hell of like put in chat, look where AVAV was.

Yesterday in comparison to today.

Fell apart.

Mhm.

Yeah.

The the the best moves like those deals and conversations that are happening, the real gains are in a private market. But now you have to learn how to not get screwed out of your private gains even on an exit. So y'all been on fire. They they thought that they would have a private company like Anthropic under pressure giving them a deadline. That didn't really work out as well. Right now, I was telling him earlier, like Anthropic is the number one app in app store.

It was it was number 200 in January. They said no to the government. OpenAI did something different, but Anthropic said no, and now they're the number one app. Desperately, OpenAI needs the capital and how much debt they've incurred because that's what happens when you take an idea that isn't solely your creation, it doesn't work out in your favor. And as a result, I think Anthropic is going to become a fan favorite. Some people were saying it was bad business to have the to not do the deal with the government, but there's an investor class and hedge fund, pension fund, fund of fund space that doesn't want to have AI be a catalyst for murder.

Yeah.

And and it's like I always say, you can't do a good deal with a bad person. Um, if you, if you're a, a company that is trying to like really pitch yourself as democratizing, you know, artificial intelligence and.

Now you you working with the CIA.

Publicly.

Publicly, like you can't do a good deal with a bad person. Why would you? The guy, the guy starts a war for no reason. Like, why would you want your name attached to it? As you said, I think that that speaks a lot about Sam Altman and his character.

But also the desperate, the desperate move that they have to make because, um.

They're like trying so hard to just attach themselves to something that you know, and it's like, okay, I'll, I'll run to this. Like, when you know that you got a good product and you know that you, you're confident, you don't just run to anything in the moment of like, yo, get down and lay down. It's like, you got to, you got to have enough courage to walk away sometimes.

That's a fact. It was like, "Oh, you won't do it. I will. You won't do it. I will."

Immediately like.

And even they, they had, they put the deadline for them on Friday. Obviously, we saw the strike happened on Saturday, but they were still using Anthropic. They're going to wear wean off using it, but they're still using it now. I think within the next three months, it'll be completely banned for all government officials, but they're still using it now. Man, I, I've been a big fan of OpenAI for the longest since 2021. Think of how crazy it has to be to have all that compute, but you can't use that compute and intellectual property to find a business model to make you not do a deal to help kill people. You got all this [ __ ] genius compute, which when they go to court, Eli, and that's another big threat if you look at the SWOT analysis. What if that court case doesn't go well?

Uh, with OpenAI and, uh, Elon?

Yeah.

Yeah. Because if you're cash strapped, you're fighting someone.

Who has a lot of capital and access to capital on hand, and his trajectory is going up and momentum is in his favor. When Sam had a bright idea, he's losing. It reminds me, shout to Freeway. It reminds me when Freeway and 50 were both coming out, and Freeway had that little leak, and then 50 just took off. How do you drop this like this? OpenAI is the equivalent of Microsoft operating system in the early 1990s. How the hell do you lose this league? Anthropic turns down the deal, and you run over there like a groupie to him, and oh, I'll do it.

Have they lost the lead? Technically, no.

I would say the favor isn't there the way it was.

Yes.

Two years prior.

Six months ago, right? Like, if it wasn't, if it wasn't two months ago, it was, hey, yo, Gemini is here, and they really got this thing, this nano banana, that is crazy.

Right. And what they're doing is is pretty impressive, and they're using TPUs, and that was the story. And now it's, you know, Claude is pretty superior in some large language models theories. And like, okay, well, now it's Claude. They still are doing, I think 800 million, some crazy number. And I think.

But it doesn't go to the bottom line number of, okay, hypothetically, if y'all was at Tow and 19 Keys call and say, boy, Troy, you hear Tucker Carlson ask Ian what happened with the murder at Red Panda? Would you back away from me or would you come closer? When Tucker asked the question about what happened with the engineer and an acceptable answer wasn't given, that was one of the telltale signs of decay in brand trust there.

Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you on that 100%. The, the brand, it feels under attack. Uh, and the more he speaks, there was a time when he didn't speak as much, and now he's everywhere and he's speaking.

They might want to sit him down just for a little bit. Just for a little bit.

Yeah.

Um, what's the, uh, how do you trade oil futures?

I know y'all going to be mad at me this episode. The oil trade is over with unless you're riding it to the downside. Now, if we go into another war or hypothetically if the strait remains closed for a long period of time, that may be an issue. We may see a push back up to 74.3. But if anything, you should play the reversion back down to 66 over maybe a month or two, but the spike of expecting it to go like Troy, like you said, 110, 115, that's not going to happen. Um, now, if this happens again, I will say on a Sunday night, if you can get in on the first 10 minutes or first 15 minutes of the move, you can see some gains there. But expecting this move to repeat this, this crude trade is not the gold trade of last year. Like a lot of people think this going to happen.

Mhm.

I don't think that this is it. We may pop back up to 74, but I have us reverting back to or dropping back to 66 within a month. So, if anything, you want to play it to the downside. And if you look at what the long-term trend of crude is, it is to the downside. This isn't '04. This is not '05. Um, like you said, in 2020, oil futures went negative, which I never saw for any other asset. So, if anything, I would revert to the mean. Um, and I would stay long on the Dow side, NASDAQ side, and ES side as well. But, but any illusion of crude going to 110 in this cycle of trading, man, it's not going to happen. It's too late.

Yeah. Oil or crude is is not for the faint of heart.

No.

It really isn't. I, I.

It's not easy.

I remember. Yeah. I, I, I was trading, um, options contracts on, um, it's Marathon Oil, I believe, maybe in '22.

Yeah.

It's, it's one of those spaces where you try to understand it and you feel like you have a firm grip on it, and then.

Again, it's just the how speculative it is. It, it's a lot. I, I wouldn't recommend it. But you, you brought up, you brought up gold of 2025.

Yeah.

In times like this, uncertainty. What, what do you think about gold present day? Right? Or the outlook? Does it look even greater now when you see conflict or war like this?

Um, yes, but more important, as I illustrated before, these are some of the things that the market has survived. Let's go 1980 Iran-Iraq war, '82 Arab-Israeli war, the Falkland Islands, the Gulf War 1990, Afghanistan 2001, Kosovo conflict 1999. The thing, stay long to market. I know y'all get tired of me saying two tech, two index, but just like running triangle with Mike, Shaq, and Kobe on the team, it works. And KDF at four run, you only have to pick four companies. The issue is you try and take advantage of every mispricing in the market, and by the time they report that news, it is long gone. Where's all the quantum talk everybody had last year? They ain't nothing about no quantum, nothing. Just stay invested in the things that are going to work long-term, and you'll be, you'll be okay. Um, so stay long. The market, gold, of course, is an amazing hedge. Bitcoin at the right price as a hedge. Stay long gold. But I think too many times hearing the news deviates you from your plan. Like, for example, you guys, you recording and working every day. You didn't say, "Well, now I'm going to open up a gold dispensary." No. Invest fast market money. Same routine. And the people who stick within the same routine because when you're building your portfolio, you have to factor in war triage for my investors. You have to factor in depopulation. If depopulation happens over a 10-year period, and let's say 42 million people are erased from Earth, have you factored in which companies are still going to be profitable and help those that are remaining? You have to factor every bad scenario in. If you haven't, you're going to be [ __ ] and that's your fault. If I've made you money, please put yes in chat. I'm not playing at '26. Been doing the show six years. Listen the first time. Tell me y'all message me, hey, ABA, this the one you don't know. It fell a hundred bucks today. You're investing in AVAV over Exxon? Remy, my voice. Are you dumb? Excellent, bro.

Um, why did, why did Nvidia drop last week after the earnings? Uh, it was up today, but, um, yeah, after the earnings, it dropped. Um, so what's the deal with that?

Uh, the the amazing part is like an hour after I had put my some of my synopsis in Telegram for Stock Club, I saw Rashad, you doing a voice over and Troy, um, back in the theater room, which I'm loving this series, right? And I, the point that we both agree upon for sure is sometime great is not great enough. Like what Wall Street wants Nvidia to do is triple the numbers that they're doing now, and it's mathematically impossible. They want Nvidia to almost produce Ponzi-like returns to have a positive outlook going forward. Um, with Nvidia, I wouldn't play the earnings game. If you're playing long-term, you are fine. Um, but I think they have been so exceptional. It's like that that one year like when Barkley got MVP over Jordan, and it's like, yeah, Barkley had a great season with Phoenix and Dan Marley and Tom Chambers, whoever was on the team, right?

Mike, probably who?

Kev Johnson.

Okay, Kevin Johnson, beast, right? Underrated, too. Underrated point guard.

But Mike probably should have got that MVP. So because they've been doing great for so long, investors are not happy with the revenue numbers and the the guidance, and I think that's misguided because if it was any other company, people would be jumping into the heavens over the returns. So what do you guys think?

I mean, you want to talk about Ponzi, it almost is Ponzi scheme numbers. These numbers are ridiculous. Like, we, we can't just like pretend like they're not. They definitely are.

Yeah. 79% I think they're 91% year-over-year in terms of revenue growth. Uh, we talked about the data center growth. We talked about the future guidance. It's, it's all there, man. You know what's interesting? I looked at 31 analysts, their their target.

None of them are under 250 for the year.

No.

None of them are under 250.

Did what we saw was an opportunity. If we looked at the EMAs, I know a lot of people have been doing their technical analysis, right? We were watching that 174 line.

Let's see if it goes under there, right? That's the 400-day EMA on the daily chart. Let's see if it goes under there. It flirted with it. It bounced right back off of it. This is an opportune time. If you're buying a stock long-term, you should have it. If you're buying leaps out a year, two years, you should have it. Nvidia is not going anywhere. It is the greatest company in this United States currently.

Um.

But again, the capex spend is still the concern. Um, because a lot of people are spending with them, uh, which is interesting. The the company that is taking in most of this revenue and has a 53% or 57% profit margin is the one that's actually pulling back.

And once again, asymmetric risk-to-reward. Like, if the high is 212 and it got to 197, that's not the time to be pouring money in. And I mean, if you guys listen, I gave I gave you guys a price to where to enter, but asymmetry in your mathematical equation of when to buy definitely has to factor in given that they knew these attacks were going to happen. Now is not the right time to to deploy the capital.

Yeah. And and if, if any other sector we looked at, like we said, software moved up. Think about what when they're talking about capback spend, where are they spending the money? Yeah, we could talk about infrastructure, but what's going inside the infrastructure? GPUs. Who are they spending it with? Majority of them are spending with Nvidia. It's going to be here. If you got into the the stock, congratulations. It will be here. It's not going anywhere.

Um, what's the top asset for the next 12 months? The ones we've been telling you about. I think it's a great question. But the ones we've been telling you about, stocks, gold, crypto, real estate. The matrix, um, of what to invest in amongst the the good elite won't change. We don't have access to the waterways and ocean rights and air rights. The stocks, real estate, crypto, um, and gold.

Okay.

Well, what do you guys think? If there's another answer?

That, that is the answer. That's the answer. That's the answer, folks.

Yes, sir.

Let's bring our guest up. We have a guest. Let's bring our guest up, shall we?

Hey, how's it going?

What's going on? What's the word? Hey, how are you?

Happy Market Monday.

Happy market.

How you feeling, man?

I can't complain. I don't have much in the market, so I'm my shirt is still on my on my back, so no complaints.

You, you got, you got, you got a lot in the art behind you. It's beautiful. So, that's an investment.

Art, no pun intended.

Yeah, that's an investment in itself.

Appreciate it. So, Adam, let, let me, let me, Adam, um, let me see if I can get this correct. Bon K Deco.

Yeah, that's close enough. It's.

You gonna butcher a name, ain't it? You my dog.

Bunko. Yeah.

Buckadeo. So, okay. Interesting conversation that we had. Uh, we got introduced by Champ. Shout out to him. Um, but Harvard educated, and, um, you are running for a very, uh, interesting position, New York State Controller. Something that most people have no idea what that actually even means, but from a business financial standpoint, is pretty much like the CFO. And, um, man, talking about the budget that it controls, and, um, one, it's one of the most powerful positions in the country, really, if you really think about it, because you think of New York, New York as the capital of capitalism. So the person that's kind of like in charge of the money for the, for the most important part of America when it comes to finances are concerned. And, um, you would be, you would be, you would be making history as the first black, uh, controller, I believe, right? City controller.

So, can you.

Yeah, I think so.

Explain. Just explain. I have some questions, but before we even start the line of questioning, explain what the title is and why it's important financially.

Yeah. No, I appreciate y'all having me on. Uh, and I definitely looking forward to chopping it up about this, uh, very, very important office. And it's simple. It controls the money in New York State. And as you noted, um, this is the capital of capital, uh, in terms of how money flows not only in New York but beyond. And so there's a lot of responsibility related to it. I think the two most important, um, in terms of, um, the office is one, you are the head of the state's pension fund, which is nearly $300 billion. So you are one of the world's most important investors and one of the world's largest institutional investors. And then two, you have oversight over the $254 billion state budget. So where money goes, schools, roads, um, firefighters, the whole bit. And so it's an incredibly important job. And I got a lot of ideas on how we should try to do things differently in terms of being able to not only invest, um, as we honor our obligations to the people who have served our state, but how are we able to again, be a proactive player in a whole variety of markets, uh, to the benefit of, uh, New Yorkers. So, yeah, uh, it is a very, very key job, uh, in term, especially today, given all of the things y'all are covering, whether it be the oil markets, whether it be stock market, whether it be infrastructure, real estate, um, the pension fund in particular can be a very powerful player.

I'm interested in how one prepares to even take on this title. Like, what, what did you study? Like, are you an economist? Like, how, how did we.

Get to this point where it's like, this is obviously one of the most important jobs in the country? Definitely in the state. How did you even prepare to be in this position?

Yeah. No, it's a good, it's a great question. My, my wife asks me that all the time.

But no, I think it really starts from parents, really. Like, I mean, what I love about what y'all are doing is y'all are bringing to life like how one thinks about like economics and the markets, but like, it's really dollars and cents. It starts at your house. It starts at the kitchen table. It starts with the basics that you're trying to do. And so, you know, my dad came here, 50 bucks in his pocket, clothes he was wearing, extra scent in the suitcase, and worked at McDonald's, Dunkin' Donuts, janitor, the whole bit. And was trying to think about how to again create a better life for himself. And so, through that, like was the whole lesson about like, how do you build up your financial base? And, you know, I was fortunate. I got scholarships to go to, you know, boarding school, college, Harvard Business School. But like, you know, I think for a lot of folks, it, they didn't have that. Like, and my, my pursuit in this office is how do we create broader sets of opportunities for folks to participate in the market, right? Or, or to participate in the economy more generally. And so whether that's working in organizing, working in finance, working in nonprofits, my whole thing has been like, how do we get people to play in the playing field, the economic playing field, especially the ones y'all are talking about, right? Like, I remember hearing about crypto 15 years ago and it was white boys that I went to school with. They had access, they had the plug to that. Not even 15. This was like 2010, 2009 when first coins were coming out. And so to me, that is all about sort of again, access, opportunity, and then like being able to shape, um, the office in a way that enables folks to have greater access to that.

Uh, when you win, how do you use pension funds to empower Black and Brown communities and to get more wealth? And also while not upsetting current administrative forces that will lead to attacks down the line?

Yeah. So I think for me, it's real simple, right? Like, I mean, y'all got Robert Smith on many times, I'm sure. And it's about like, who, who does the pension fund allocate money or capital toward, right? And Robert, obviously successful investor. But initially, like, you know, it's a Black guy starting a private equity firm in SAS. That was not intuitive that people were like, "Yep, we're gonna throw money into this." But I think there's a whole array of folks, um, folks of color who have that same exact set of ideas, talent. And by the way, it actually would be a, a good return for the pension fund getting in early on a lot of emerging managers of this kind. And so my view is, I'd like for us to look like the Canadian model. So y'all were talking about like the things y'all would be focusing on the next 12 months from now. Absolutely. They are focused on energy. They are focused on transportation infrastructure. They're focused on housing, real estate, like real assets. And to me, that's the way in which if we were to operate in that same model. Look, we got a housing crisis in New York, right? And to me, that housing crisis is actually a market opportunity for the pension fund to be a catalytic player in actually creating not only more housing supply, but also making money for the pension fund because if we can build more, like the demand is clearly there. And so I just think there are a number of places and areas, whether it's emerging managers, whether it's housing, whether it's infrastructure, that we could actually, like, again, make money for retirees and do right by Black and Brown communities, uh, here in New York. And I think if you do that, I don't, there aren't going to be people who are going to be like, "Ah, can't believe we're making, we're making money like that." Like, so I think to me, that's the way in which we can hopefully be able to get a lot of people on board.

Let's, let's stay on this pension conversation for a little bit and I'm going to have a follow-up question to this, but, okay, explain to the people, this is important for them to know. How much money is in the pension that you're referring to?

Oh, nearly $300 billion.

And then so, $300 billion in the pension. Now, yeah, who controls where that money goes?

One person, the state controller.

So, one person controls where $300 billion goes?

Right.

If you be, so, if you get, if you get elected, you single-handedly would be able to control $300 billion?

Yeah. That would be one of the largest capital allocators in the world.

Okay. And speaking of Robert Smith, so what he said was you, so this pension that we're referring to, this is teachers?

We're talking about, yeah.

Teachers, civil servants. So everybody outside of New York City, has, that work the occupations.

Oh, we talking about teachers. We talking about police, fire. Yeah.

Annotation, like your little local town board, everybody outside of New York City sends, if you're a public employee for a town, for the state, it all goes to, um, the pen, state pension fund, which is called New York Common.

So, this is why the Robert Smith, you, you mentioned Robert Smith to tie it all in. So when we spoke to him at Carnegie Hall, so he was saying that, when you look at those jobs that you just referred to, at least probably 25% or more are Black people, Black and Hispanic people, probably even 40% when you add that population in as well. Right?

Right. But 99% of the money that gets allocated goes to white fund managers, or they have no access as far as the money managers. So Robert Smith's thing was that he was saying, okay, if it's 25% of the population that's working those jobs that's Black, 25% of the money management should be, should be in Black hands, money management hands, right? Because that's, it's a higher level conversation as far as we talk about access to capital, but there's access to invest capital as well. And it's been proven that Black money managers traditionally have invested more in Black businesses as well. So, it's a trickle, it's a trickle-down effect.

Absolutely. I would even say you more likely to generate alpha that way too, by the way, because you're basically looking at opportunities that again, have higher upside, but don't necessarily have a lot of capital toward them. Right? Think of like Shea Moisture, for instance, right? Before the whole market started to explode with like, you know, Black beauty, he was like the only cat in the market playing in that space for a long time, or could really scale up. And then when everybody started realizing it was like, oh, wow, like there's actually a lot of money in this, in this, in this segment. So to me, there's a lot of, there's a lot of areas like this. I think Roberts touched on and I think he's a good example himself, which is, yeah, like if you make the investment in diverse managers, especially when they have diverse strategies, you're likely going to get, you know, greater out, greater upside because like no one's really playing in that space. And that's where I think again, the pension fund can really, um, can do phenomenal work.

In terms of the pension fund, what, what are the priorities that we invest in? I guess, what would be the top priorities for you? I know you said you want to do things differently. Is it that addressing housing? Is it infrastructure? Is it job creation? Like, what do you see? Right? Because that, I mean, $300 billion is, I mean, you're one of the largest asset movers in, in obviously in the state, in the country. What, what do you prioritize at that position?

Yeah. So I think for me, the paramount consideration, and I think y'all would, y'all would definitely be on board, is is whatever said investment going to make money? Like, is this actually going to generate a return? And then from that perspective, then I start looking like, okay, once we've checked that box, like, how does this fit within the broader portfolio or in the construction that we got, right? So like, half of it is equities. Another 35% is around alternatives. So think real estate, PE, hedge fund, it could be a whole set of other asset classes. And my view is, if you look at the Canadians, uh, Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, you look at Quebec's CDPQ. So those cats are moving very differently. They're not only making money for retirees, they're also investing in housing, clean infrastructure, they're transportation. In Montreal, if y'all been, they literally built a train, the REM rail system up there. They own, operated it, the whole bit. And so my view is like, oh, if you can make money and make very key investments in strengthening the regional economy, then that's going to be a win-win for all sides, for the state and for the retirees. But I think the important part I think about it in terms of is like, look, it would suck if we give you a pension and you can't afford to live in New York, or you can't afford to ride the subway, or you can't afford to pay your Con Ed bill, and we had all this big pool of money. And again, my view is, as an investor, and y'all know this, you want to be taking advantage of dislocation. Like, clearly got a housing shortage, housing supply problem. So, if we can start investing in housing supply, again, we're going to make money because we know there's demand. We got transportation needs. Should we be investing in infrastructure? Like, we've got a big situation for those who live like in New York City, Long Island. Man, Con Ed bills are going through the roof.

Yeah. And we need more capacity, right? Like, it can't just be building data centers. Like, I want to do what the Canadians are doing. They own the distribution and transmission networks. And so they not only making money sending energy down to KET, they also own the actual infrastructure that is enabling electricity we produce. And so for me, I think there's a lot of downstream effects when you start actually owning the kind of physical infrastructure that enables data centers, that enables clean energy to be built. That's the type of stuff that to y'all point, like, if you have access to water rights and ocean right, like that's, that's the better out, like you have a real stable return that way, and everybody's feeding off of your platform versus like, oh, we got to take piece by piece here. Like, that's just not, to me, I feel like that's the game we've been playing. But like, the real game is like, we should just be owning the platform that everybody needs in order to to grow.

I have a two-parter for for you. Uh, number one, can you talk to me about asset allocation? So, you have private equity, hedge fund, like you talked about building a platform. And then secondly, like what are you expecting the the annual returns to be from a person who's deploying $300 billion, um, in two different markets?

Yeah. So from an asset allocation perspective, again, I'd like to look a little more like the Canadians. Like, so we got 15% in real estate, but a lot of that is not even in New York. Most of it's not in New York, which seems kind of bonkers to me. If you're like, well, this is one of the most valuable real estate markets in the world, and you got this dislocation.

Where, where's it, where's it invested?

Great question. Yeah, it's in like Texas. It's in Illinois. It's in Florida. Now, that's not to say that those markets aren't popping off, but, like,

But a better return would be, a better return would be right here in New York, right?

So, I just think from kind of the distribution within geographic distribution of like, where we kind of put money, I think that is something that we would need to think, uh, a little bit deeply about. Again, I like the Canadians because again, they are, you know, they're in equities, but they're also in alternatives. And they're in alternatives, but in a way that again, is foundational. I like owning the foundational pieces rather than owning the kind of, I rather have people pay rent to us versus like, oh, we kind of smash and grab, like real quick in and out, for instance. So, that's my, my view. Now, when you look at the kind of returns that I would think that we could be generating, I would say, if we're talking again, similar to Ontario Teachers, CPP, or the Australian, uh, pensions, they're getting nine, 10, 11% annualized, 10-year annualized. I mean, Common is only, the state pension fund is only getting like six, seven, eight at best. And so I feel like there's again, a lot more orange to squeeze. And the juice.

Um, if we can again, think about that allocation a bit differently.

So, okay, as the, the controller does not answer to the governor or state legislator. The state constitution is incredibly clear. There is one person who is responsible for the state pension fund. It is the office of the state controller. It is unique. There's really no other state. There are few other states that do it like this. But like, you to make an investment, you ain't got to go through the governor. You ain't got to go through the legislature. It is the sole trustee.

So, the reason I ask you guys, it's, it's so interesting because even we think of Vegas, I, from what I've been told, um, the teachers pension fund that helped fund Vegas with, um, Jimmy Hoffer and and those guys and Bugsy Siegel back in the day. So, man, this is so interesting on a variety of different levels because, hey, I never knew what the controller is the comptroller or controller, comp. I never knew what the comptroller did. Um, and I don't think the vast majority of people really do for that for their states. But it's not taught in school. Civics education is something that's vitally important. It's like up there with financial literacy. But, um, yeah, man, who knew that one person was in control of $300 billion dollars and they don't have to answer to anybody? Like that alone, that alone is something that's a, that's a very, um, important thing about.

Yeah. I mean, to put it in perspective, the state controller of New York controls more money than the president of the United States, the governor of New York, and the mayor of New York City. Like, single-handedly, tomorrow, if they want to go buy $300 billion of Apple stock or Nvidia stock, they could go do that. Like, so it is, yeah, it is a very fascinating, uh, role and can do a lot. Like, I mean, that's why I think again, getting folks with perspectives that are beyond what the status quo is and is incredibly important in a role like that.

How often do we, do we change our comptroller? I'm looking at who we currently have as controller. How often does that position become available? Um, and what, like, obviously you know, when people vote, they just look for the main person on the ticket and they never look at anything else. But that, that line item is there. Correct.

Yeah. It's there. I mean, we haven't had a controller election, man, since I was probably in college, um, or high school. Like, it has been 20 years since, um, we've had a primary for the controller.

Like, why? Why is that? Nobody, you know, I think it's part of it was, I think, you know, nobody really was thinking about it in a real way. And part of my view about this is to your point was just like, every, you know, a lot of people think governor, a lieutenant, like, uh, AG, even attorney general. Yeah. But like, man, the controller, as you noted, this is the one cat who can do a lot. And so, yeah, I just think it's been lack of competition and just a, like, it's just kind of not been on people's radar for like 20 years.

Uh, can, can you tell me why, why have you said the returns have been six to 7% but given all the capital influence, access to investment opportunity, access to Wall Street, why has the returns been so low?

You know, I think that's just the nature of like, you know, the current folks, they just been like, passive, like, you know, not going to do anything different. Crypto? Nah, I don't want to talk about that. Like, alternative? Ah, I'm okay on that. Like, you know, we ain't losing money, so nothing to complain.

Yeah, can't complain. Like, also, you can't lose a job and keep a 20-year term.

Yeah. If you're not losing money, no one's crying. But like, if we talking about going out and actually trying to make money, that's a whole, then you needs a whole different mindset. And that mindset just doesn't exist today.

So, when, when is the election?

Election June 23rd.

And that's for New York State. There's a difference between New York City. New York City is different. There's a New York City controller.

Yeah, there's a New York City controller, which strangely enough, a lot of more people know about, but he's not, he or she doesn't have as much authority as the state one. So like, to your point, Rashad, like they got a board on the New York City one. So the mayor's got appointees, the city controller has appointees, uh, labor unions have appointees. So there's responsibilities kind of like carved up. And on the state level, it's one trustee, state controller. That's it.

That's, so is all right. When's, when, when's the election?

June 23rd.

That's the primary.

Yeah, primary June 23rd.

Democratic primary. How many people are running?

Uh, we got a few cats. Uh, we'll see. I mean, right now, you know, things are never, but at least right now, uh, Tom and myself for now.

Uh, Tom is the guy that's in it right now.

Yeah, he's in it right now. We'll see. We'll see what goes on between now and then. But yeah.

Tom DiNapoli, is that how you pronounce it?

Yeah. Dapoli is it? Is that right?

Yeah.

So, okay. So, how can people, all right. This is interesting. You're running, I guess you're running a full-fledged campaign right now. People can contribute even if they don't live in New York. Like, what's the, give the whole, the political, if cats want to support?

Absolutely. Um, you know, we run in grassroots style, so I'm all for it. Um, so donations, you could contribute on the website, Adam4NewYork.com. Now, if you live in New York, uh, contributions are matched six times by the state. So, so you give $25, that sucker turns into 175. Um, so it's a game-changer in terms of, um, um, participation. And it's similar to the city has a matching funds program too. Um, so that's a, that's its own,

For all state residents.

Yeah. You just got to be a state, New York state resident.

Okay. To vote. But you can contribute even if you're not a New York state resident.

Yeah. You can contribute if you don't even live in New York. Yeah. Yeah. And, and it's the Democratic primary. That's the, this was in June, right? Democratic primary.

Huh? The Democratic primary. That's what you're running for in June.

Yeah. Yeah. Democratic primary. Exactly.

And then if you win that, then the, the November would be like, we,

Okay. All right. All right. What's your roadmap from now till then? What are you, what are you doing to raise awareness on?

Big focus is man, spreading the word on on stuff like this. Like, I mean, we just want to go out, tell folks not only what the controller is, who the controller is, but like what the controller should be doing, right? Again, if we talking seriously about solving the housing crisis, solving our energy crisis, solving transportation, then there's an opportunity to make money. Uh, and I think the pension fund can do two things, right? We can honor our obligations to retirees and be able to solve these like deep pressing issues in, uh, Black and Brown communities. So, to me, I think that is just like going to be the focus on how we get sort of from here to point B. And we do that just by reaching folks, uh, day by day, person by person, conversation by conversation. But these are, these are the things that people need to know because this is what people really need to vote for. Like, these are the things they probably, they might have like 10,000 people that vote. Like nobody even knows to even vote for something like that. Like, that's, that's actually something that's vitally important for people to vote for.

Yeah. I mean, to me, the way I'm thinking about it is just like, look, if you know housing is a problem, if you know transportation is a problem, if you know energy is a problem, then yeah, this is the one person who single-handedly can go out and try to make changes on this and by the way, make investments on this, and again, make money doing this. Like, so I don't think it's crazy. The other idea that we had is talking about creating a trust fund for the children of the state.

So y'all know unclaimed funds.

No. So there's $20 million sitting in unclaimed funds today.

Yep. And the, what, what unclaimed funds is, explain that, like a life insurance policy that nobody ever claims.

Yeah. So tomorrow, y'all decide like, yo, I'm leaving New York. Uh, I got $1,000 at JP Morgan. Um, I don't even bother to go close the account. JP Morgan, by law, has to give the money to the state. And there's a bunch of stuff like this, gift cards, bank accounts, insurance policies. So the number has gone from three billion in 20 years to 20 billion today. And so what it does right now, it just sits in the state's checking account, which is the state's general reserve. And my view is, why don't we take this money because it's going to continue to pile up? Put it in an investment trust, even at a 5% return. 5% at 20 billion is what? What? A billion dollars. We give every kid who's born in New York $1,000, a dividend from that. Sits in their bank account, sits in this, in an investment account, uh, controlled by the controller. You see how the money grows over time. Stocks, bonds. It's also like education for, it's basic same deal like y'all had, my dad had, gave me. It was just like, oh, this is how things in the market kind of move. And at age 18, you could go to college or vocational school. You can take care of a sick parent like I've had to. You could put a down payment toward your first house or start a business. So we're taking the money and not just like, just kind of keeping it around.

Yeah. Misusing. Actually putting it in the market and trying to do right and grow it, but also invest in our people. So like, again, these are things that are very, yeah, like the controllers haven't really thought about it that way. But I'm like, we need to transform this job completely. It can't just be like, "Oh, I'm bookkeeping for numbers in the past." We need to be talking about how we invest in the future. Cuz like, let's be honest, if we don't solve housing, if we don't solve energy, if we don't solve any of these issues, I mean, y'all see every day, how many people are leaving New York? I know. Going to Charlotte, going to Houston, going to Atlanta.

Florida. Yep. Yeah, going to Florida. Can't afford to live here. Like, it's crazy. And so my view is like, we need to like do things fundamentally differently. And so that's kind of why the office matters.

Yeah. I, I was even thinking on a personal level, living here, um, in Westchester, the amount of property tax, the amount of government wasting. I know you have the authority to audit agencies and authorities, like just, just touch on that for a little bit because I feel like, look, we, we can't get a role. I mean, it's the same thing over and over. We're looking at money being wasted. We know that our schools aren't getting better, but our property tax is going up. How do we, like, is that the role that we now complain to the, the state controller to finally get something that can say, "All right, this is how we're spending. Here's how we can do it more efficiently."

Yeah. So that's my thing, right? Like, think about that for a second. It is a legitimate question to be asking. Mhm. We got a $254 billion budget and we can't afford to have housing, infrastructure. We can't afford to do all this. Like, it's a wild amount of money. $254 billion. Just to put it in perspective, it's a thousand millions in one billion. So then multiply that by 254. That's the kind of money we're talking about. And we can't solve the housing crisis. We can't solve. Like, people have a legitimate reason to be like, "Yo, what are taxes going toward? Like, y'all keep asking for more money and like, y'all can't even get the subway to run on time." Like, it don't make no sense. Like, and so to me, that's kind of the questions that the controller, again, instead of just being like, "Well, you know, the numbers came in, the money's out, and that's it." It's just like, who's holding who accountable? And to me, at 254, bro, that's a lot of money. Like, are you telling me like you can't afford to build more housing with 254? Like, that's crazy. Like, and so I, I think we got to make, we got to do things way, way differently, bro. Like, it's just this isn't working the way it's been before. And it, it's not just simply give us more money. Like, you got to tell us how the money is being used today.

Wait a minute. Well, when we get you elected, um, how soon can we come to the office? And is there any special advisory roles that we can?

Oh, man. I got a few. I got a few ideas. Market Monday, we got to do.

We gotta had an audience come to the office.

Yeah. I would, I would love because like this is to me, the, the question that we have is, and again, it's going to be a debate. We're going to have in the spring, right? Which is, can we honor our obligations to retirees? Because some people are going to be like, "Oh, you know, why, why are we trying to invest in housing with the pension fund and infrastructure and yada yada yada?" Can we honor our obligations and invest boldly in the next generation?

Yep. And it's mandatory, given the rate of mutually exclusive.

Yep. All right, my brother. Well, thank you for joining us. Say the website again, please.

Uh, Adam a DM4 fo r New York neo rk.com. I appreciate y'all, man.

Yeah, I appreciate that. And what's, what's your social media? What's your social media?

Oh, my first and last name, just you could type it in IG. You could put it in Twitter, or I guess they call it X now. Um, and all the other socials. But yeah, just my name. Easy.

Yeah. All right, brother. Thank you, man. Appreciate it.

Appreciate you, my guy. Appreciate y'all, man. Looking forward.

Yes, sir. All right. I didn't even know that that it. So, if you're a New York State resident, the state will match the donation.

So, I got to move to Meat Packing District, Paul, Long Island.

No, no, no, no, no. Got spot close to living a little different. For sure. That was, um, education. Informative.

Yes. And it's one of those positions like you said, that are not sexy, but to your point, that's really like a financial monarchy. You don't answer to any. They don't answer to anyone. That's,

Wow. Wow. Yeah, I'm going to do a breakdown on this. Of course, for a, for, for the retail investors who may say, "Well, 6% is terrible." You have different parameters of risk that you're even allowed to take because you're looking at people's pension funds. But is there a way to, like you said, meet the obligations and get alpha? Like, even in that case, 13% return, he would be what y'all think Michael Sailor is. So, that capital, huh? I said, with that level of capital, the 13% move. And there's so much infrastructure, like you said, and innovation just in a city alone. You could have picked spots easily of where to invest in him. But, um, if the brother gets in office, maybe we'll have a conversation. So, I hope y'all enjoyed it.

Yeah, that was interesting, man. That was interesting. Shotty, I'm calling you tomorrow. Um, tomorrow, I mean, Wednesday, we'll be back. Blackout, 9 o'clock. Check it out. Um, shout out to Aisha for having this go viral. And for everyone who has not made the investment material go viral, make the stock stuff go viral.

Please. Please. ASAP. That's more life-changing.

Yeah, they didn't talked to IUDA and Yo Gier went around the world. Went to Africa. Shaka bars. That's okay. It shows a lot about the culture, too. And I love y'all. And to y'all men who were hurt about the number because it's a lot of that, too. We talk about it on Blackout. Not saying that you should deploy it there, but some of y'all are crying because that cash messed up. We talk about it on Blackout.

That's more than I'm making. Blackout. Blackout is a show. It's an opinion-based show. Once again, it's not, it's not Market Mondays. It's not Earn Your Leisure. It's another offering from us. I know. I know. We've established a brand of financial literacy. So, it's like band-aid everything that we do. But you guys platform such a person, you're supposed to be the epitome of financial excellence and you put ice on your show.

We got friends in many different walks of life. [ __ ] devious [ __ ] though. It's called many different walks of life, man. Micron eat all liies called Bitcoin at 20K. And that's what went viral. Bernice Melissa Ford. Let's do a deal. Somebody get somebody. Hey, Alex, call Korean. We get Melissa for Bernice super episode coming. No pun intended.

Live. No, live. Live in person. Live in person. Yeah. Get Tila Tequila. Where she at? Get a super ensemble. I love Karen. I love correct. Go get Holly and Winnie too. It's late. You know, you know, you know. Live report. Thursday, 12:00. We got Two Chains. True. Get the book out now.

Shout out to Two Chains, man. Good brother right there. Um, so, yeah, we back. We back and full of fleck. Um, but yeah, man. you know, if we, if we did disappoint you from the Aisha conversation, I am sorry, but we got to be honest. This is, this is just a duality of life. Like, you know,

Yeah. We can't, we can't pretend to be something that we're not. We have these conversations. Like, we don't talk about stocks all the time. Like, you know, and to be honest, that's probably even a more relevant conversation because more people losing their wealth because of bad relationship decisions than in the market.

Absolutely. And for those of you out of capital, $50,000 a month into the market over a 10-year period is 11.5. If you're getting 12% return a year, um, if you double that, you'll be at 22 million. Invest wisely. And also too, ladies, if you find a way to catch a simp, I'm not mad at you. Tell them 20. Some of them got 24 year.

Yo, I got nothing. I got no parts of this. Smart man. Every, everything's tricky out right now. Everything's tricky. Stay safe. Stay safe.

And stay locked in to your purpose. Please. Please. And if you stay on your dean, invest into the market and they know you not going. They'll just be happy to be along for the ride. They tell them don't go chasing waterfalls. Yeah.

Once again, thank you Francois for the connection and, uh, Good Morning America. Thank y'all too for the support. Troy Rashad, thank you Wolf. Thank you for producing episodes today here at WTF Media Studios here in New York City, Midtown and Soho location. And if you're in LA, West Hollywood, and get the book, you deserve to be rich.

That's a fact. Big facts. That's a fact. All right, y'all. It's been real. What's happening? Wednesday. Love is love.