Transcription
This is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He's a 6'5, 236 big armed robot who surprised defenders with a little bit of a truck stick, but for the most part, we're here for the throws. And he's got every single one in his arsenal. My favorite, these huge out routes from the far hash perfectly on the money, layered seam passes, you'll see that huge damfield go balls. But he was more half field ready than I was expecting. So the question is, is that an Indiana offense thing or is that something about Fernando himself?
My favorite part of the series that we do when we talk about 40, 50 college prospects is Hayd and I watch the tape individually and come back with notes without sharing them beforehand. So my first question to you is that yes, this is your prototypical quarterback one Heisman Trophy winner, national champion, a full 6'5, 236 pounds. You would think big, strong armed and then progression reader from the pocket, but I think and I thought that his tape showed a bit of a different story. Did you think the same as well?
Yeah, there were just not very many backside throws. Now, this is not a panic quarterback where he's throwing the ball into bad windows. Like, you can go the entire season and he only had a couple interceptions that were like actually his fault. He does not put the ball in harm's way whatsoever. He rather goes one to two and then eyes down and then gets out of the pocket whether that's to throw later or to scramble or on occasion also just takes some really bad sacks. Now he's a little bit more pinpointing on when he was going to take a sack. Uh but he was very much half field one two eyes down and that's the big negative here with Fernando Mendoza. Obviously as you develop in the NFL and your 10th season you're much better at going through your full uh progression here. But the big con in the Fernando Mendoza tape is that one, two, eyes down. So I I think that eventually will get corrected, but right now that is the big mystery box.
We're going to have a full-on conversation about all this, the positives, the concerns, maybe some stats that matter, a player comparison when we get through this. So again, if you like this type of video, hit that subscribe button. We're going to do these for 40 or 50 prospects throughout the next, I don't know, six, seven weeks. Let's talk about this Indiana passing attack, right? Kurt Signetti, former Elon football coach, by the way, not mentioned enough just a handful of years ago. Was that my school? Elon. Uh, this was a cool offense. And Hayden, I'm going to say they kind of stole some things from like the Tennessee balls in terms of spacing and they really want to attack down the field and vertically. Like you said, his outside the number stuff is easily his best. No question to me about his arm outside the numbers either when the routes were taking them directly to the sideline at full speed or running on these big downfield patterns. And then he was fantastic as we saw in the college football playoff at those back shoulder throws, the great timing on the outside breaking routes. Our buddy JT Sullivan would call those big capital A anticipation throws.
And I I also thought Hayden that he had, you know, different clubs in his bag for when he needed trajectory or touch. And so he could hit a whole shot versus cover two, boom, he can rifle it in there. Or if he needs to throw it above a hook defender or anything else, he can layer it on those. And again, everything outside the numbers and those big downfield passes, which by the way, Clint Kubak and the Las Vegas Raiders are going to do a lot of, uh, I think that is a seamless fit for him.
Yeah, I think arm talent-wise across the board, it's above average to really fantastic. That's arm strength. You're talking about the accuracy and the ability to put some touch on it. I think he can do all of that with ease. the anticipation throws to the out outside. It was very Joe Burrowesque where like he knows pre-snap where the ball is going to go to and he's putting the ball on the money like truly on the money, not like in frame, like actually right on the money. So, I thought his arm talent was really, really, really strong and I thought he has a lot of juice on the ball when he had to throw the ball vertically on these post routes and whatnot. Now, a lot of it is RPO, so like there's a lot of throws that are kind of underneath in over the middle of the field. Uh but when he had to rip the ball, he absolutely was able to. To kind of back up your point on the outside throws, Sports Info Solution has ontarget rate on throws to the outside and more than 10 yards down the field. Like these are the big boy throws. 68% on target rate is fantastic. Like one of the best I've seen the last couple years doing this. And then throws over the middle five to 20 yards. That was at 78% on target rate. Easily above average among even first round prospects as well. So I think accuracy, ball placement, all that type of stuff is actually very very good. Let's keep talking and diving into how he fared in this Indian offense. And to back up your point, they ran the highest rate of RPOS's in the country. I mean, 26% of his pass attempts were these RPOs. And off of that, you could say that this offense really was like a heavy run game with the RPOS and early downs.
And then sometimes that runheavy attack would put Mendoza in this passing game into second and third and long situations. uh where you know pre-nap he was asked to check hey what side of the read am I going to make my primary side and I mean they finished second and third and long in seven plus yard situations conversion rate across college football this year at 41.4%.
Wow.
Now I think we also need to tie this into if we keep talking about the outside the number stuff that means there's kind of very little between the numbers between the hashes. Now, you do see major slot fades from him that he throws at a really high rate and a really good throw to Omar Cooper, who's uh probably going to be a first round pick. I'm with you. You said it was like one, two, eyes down and run. There was even like one eyes down and we go. And that shocked me, you know, and maybe I'm stereotyping the guy again, 6'5, 240 pounds, a white dude who is
Yeah.
with like
a cannon for an arm. I thought we were just going to get this like pure progression reader from the pocket,
right?
And then I just see him moving and moving and moving and sometimes in some games being even more comfortable on those secondary and third reads while rolling out, while on the move. Now, the big concern to me is when you see that front side concept and you know I can throw seven, eight, nine, 12 of these plays at you that you go one on the front side and then either it's a dig or an inbreaker on the back. He's just turning it down. He's not
staying patient enough. He's not staying cool and calm and collected enough to even let it get open. And he might take a glance at it and turn it down, but then he's off.
Yeah. Yeah. And often times running laterally I thought ended in negative plays and he's running into pressure and that's I'm not going to say like a cardinal sin or a major red flag. That is absolutely something that's going to have to change about his game once he gets to the lead.
In my notes I said his feet get parallel well too way too often which is exactly what you're describing. There was a play against Penn State that turns into a sack where it was like wide open the backside dig was coming. If he kept his feet right there that is a first down. That's Matthew Staffordes. Now, that's what the MVPs of the NFL do in their, you know, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth season in the NFL. I think it's asking a lot for somebody to be ready to go doing that. But that is like what you need Fernando Menoza to turn into. I think also you mentioned Clint Kubak. Uh, aside from just like the backside throws here, no under center history. So, this is kind of a similar kind of discussion in that when we're doing the under center play action, your your quarterback has his head turned the other way and then he has to go back and rescan the football field. Right now, Fernando Mendoza is not fully scanning the football field. Is that going to be a big time transition going into the NFL? I still believe in the player because he's so tall. He can throw the ball like we said at a very high high rate. I trust him to get better at this. He obviously has a huge give a factor on top of that. uh and he's so good and he doesn't put the ball into harm's way on the first reads that I think he's going to get better at this. But I do think it is very critical to say these are just complete mystery boxes at this point. The play action under center uh and the skinning to the backside.
Some stats to back that up. Okay. So only six career drop backs under center. Very different as you said under Clint Kubi. I can just think of what Sam Darnold did. And a layer on top of that is if he's already not comfortable scanning to that backside where he's always looking at the coverage, is it going to be even more difficult to get more comfortable while a large portion of the big downfield passing plays are going to be, hey, turning your head away.
You have to be blind to what the coverage and the movement is is going to be and then resetting, rescanning, and then making that second or third progression. Yep. that tough because the full field reads like one to two to three to checkown just not there.
Yeah.
A handful of times the whole season it felt like and just not there.
Um, now he has improved in certain areas and I'll talk about negative play rate a bit later on but in 2024 he took 40 sacks and then his yards per attempt when pressured was at 5.8. In 2025 that improved to just taking 25 sacks and a yards per attempt at 7.6. There's also a little bit of a mobility factor here. What did you think about his scrambling and even some of the design runs? Because they loved a gun quarterback draw.
They absolutely did. I It seems like we're being a little bit negative. I think it's just because the fascinating part because it was not what I was expecting. I love Fernando Mendoza and I think he's one of the best first overall picks that we've had in quite a while. I think what you're getting to is the scrambling ability is like legit good. There was a play against UCLA where it was going to be one of these RPOS's like another RPO slant. the defensive end gets in the way. RP uh Fernando Mendoza instead of throwing it gets outside, scrambles by everybody for a first down. And later in that game, absolutely truck sticks like three or four guys, and then the national championship game on the line, here comes the the quarterback draw for a really fantastic touchdown. He's not Drake May, Josh Allen. He's a tier below that, but he can run in a straight line. And this dude is absolutely ripped. We saw the photos coming out of the combine. He is 236, no doubt about it. Huge forearms. I can tell it takes care of his body. So, I do think he's not going to be Mr. 800 rushing yards, but in critical situations, red area and stuff, I do think this is an absolutely transferable skill set. I think that's why I ranked him higher than some of the other guys that have been uh first overall picks recently.
Yeah, the Q draw was a big part of this offense. And then because of that, his scrambling isn't a straight line. It is linear. Mhm.
I do have questions on if his athleticism is going to translate when moving laterally. Like I thought there was such a major difference in just the quickness, how much ground he covers
when he, you know, saw the seas parting in front of him and I'm just going to take off. And again, some of that was designed, too,
versus, oh, I'm going to drop my eyes in a clean pocket and then try to buy some time moving east or west. He just looked to his size, let's put it that way, and maybe not to his athleticism moving laterally. And I think like he got away with some of those plays. There was a a cool one where he was totally squared and kind of flicked his wrist to a receiver that was moving in the opposite direction.
Yeah.
Um but I'm just not certain if he's going to be able to get away with all the movement that he had east and west as he did in college.
Yeah. There's a little bit of like the Trevor Lawrence like clearly a good athlete. Sometimes you his athlete.
Okay. I think I think they're very comparable. So maybe I'm seeing that a little bit different. I think uh in relation to like kind of the athleticism, he's willing to take huge hits. His toughness is off the charts and because he's so tall and he can throw from different arm angles. You'll see him like deliver some passes that absolutely another quarterback was sacked or could not actually even attempt to throw the ball there. There's like that Penn State backpedal. Blitzers are coming and perfect pass to Omar Cooper who got his toes in. That's just one example. There was other times getting outside getting absolutely mauled but still able to pass the ball uh well after like the fourth to sec uh six second of the drop back. So I think his toughness and stuff is like an asset here and I think his size plays into this like athleticism trait that we're talking about.
All these games kind of run together when you start talking about them. I think there was one against Iowa as well when there was either a unblocked defender up front or someone got a quick pressure and he just knew and this is where some of his
I think intelligence comes in is pre- snap understanding what the coverage is going to be and saying oh if I just have
one and a half two seconds to throw this football this guy's going to be wide open and so despite someone barreling directly at him and full-on contact in his face he again layers his pass perfectly over a uh sitting defender just Because again, pre-nap, he didn't see that postnap. There was no way for him to see it postnap. He just knew where it was going to be pre-NAP. Is there anything else you really want to say about him from a positive lens or just about who he is as a prospect right now?
Just a couple stats to kind of back all this stuff up. 78th percentile of rushing EPA um in the final season among drafted quarterbacks. So, I think we are getting above average. I think it's quarterback draws, some scramble ability. I think he can throw on the run a little bit as well and they obviously got him outside the pocket uh on purpose. And then uh the QBR, which is kind of like a per play metric uh that ESPN has, 92nd percentile among drafted quarterbacks. He goes undefeated. Everybody loves him. I think it goes into the toughness. Obviously, he's a different cat on the mic and a little bit Kurt Cousinsy there, but this dude's like 6'5 and he he's he's himself. I absolutely love this dude so much. So, while the overwhelming like production isn't there like to the Joe Burrow level, the per play numbers are absolutely there for Fernando Mendoza. And I do think he keeps getting better every single season. And I feel so comfortable that in five years from now, some of the weaknesses that we're talking about in this video are going to get cleaned up.
Just three seasons of college football, two at Cal than this past one at Indiana. I'll give you two stats on the opposite ends of the spectrum. Okay.
Mendoza in the red zone in his college career on 139 dropbacks, only one interception and seven sacks taken. We talk about four-point plays every single week. How those are like the determining factor in who wins and who loses ball games. He is not putting you in negative third and 12 situations let's say inside of the uh red area and because of that it can lead to more touchdowns rather than field goals.
Now the opposite of this is maybe all the other yards the previous 80. Okay. Uh Zack Krueger who's over at Roorld did this entire study and negative play rate is sum of all sacks, interceptions, and fumbles lost divided by total number of plays. Since 2015, there have been 46 quarterbacks entering the league with a negative play rate of 8% or over. And of those 46, I mean, I don't even know if we can scan through the list. There might be two hits.
Yeah.
Uh and he's at 8.4%. like the same as Jared Sidum, the same as Shador Sanders. Uh so to me, a major part that can easily be eliminated is just the eye dropping and running into pressure in perfectly clean pockets. If he just improves his patience and his poise in that scenario and understands, oh, I have time, there's no doubt in my mind, I think he has the intelligence because he shows it pre- snap. And he just needs to probably have the trust after just one season on this in this Indiana program, this Indiana offense to say, okay, in the league, I need to trust all my teammates and just to continue working in this area because I have the arm for it and we have, you know, hopefully the skill position players to do it. And if he does that, then to me that negative play rate will instantly drop.
I'm hoping those were career numbers because I do think he's adjusted to the sacks. Yeah. In this last season. So I do think he is kind of scaling that up. He The good news is he does not make any silly plays like outside the pocket. He's never thrown the ball. There's one rep, one of my favorite reps was actually one of his interceptions where he tried to force a throw to his right. In the second he released the ball, he was going like this. He was so upset out of himself because it's so out of character for him to do that. So, you're not going to get the the silly interceptions and stuff like you do with Kurt Cousins, who I've mentioned here. Um, it just really is the poise that we're talking about here.
I I think that was that game against Penn State, fourth quarter, like at the minus 26, wanted the slant post, the end drops, and so again, they changed the picture on him. So, it turned into drop eight. And what he should have done in that situation was hit the running back, but instead the indecision
crept up. He nailed down on that deep corner. And again, that defensive back just kind of read it all the way. That's my biggest concern. If if again, we always talk about with number one overall picks or first round quarterbacks, what is the red flag that could kind of limit their potential and limit their progression?
For me, it is
that queasy feeling that I even see him, the indecision when that primary is is taken out
and I do not see consistent um poise and reset ability. Yeah. Uh, but I think he can do it.
I think he's going to be fantastic in the NFL. I would sleep very, very comfortably taking him first overall here. Since 2021 when we've been doing this, I have like official rankings. I do still have Caleb Williams as my top. Fernando Mendoza is my number two. That's ahead of the other guys. Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stra, Drake May, Justin Fields, uh, who I also had as like first overall prospect. So, I think this is a tier above the Cam Wards, the Bryce Young's out there. I think they're This is not a slam dunk. no prospect ever is. I think traits wise there's a lot of similarities to to Trevor Lawrence. I think Trevor Lawrence uh maybe has more poise and not going to take the sacks, but he's also going to put the ball into harm's way. So, it's not exactly one to one there. Um I just like have full faith in this dude as a human being. If you look at the psychopaths in the NFL that end up in the Hall of Fame and stuff, they they have this like characteristic about them and I'm not going to overlook that. So, I'm a huge Fernando Mendoza fan. I do think that the stuff we talked about today uh is going to get fixed long term. Yeah, you always hear that NFL players are wired differently. I think he's wired differently than NFL players on
Yeah. They're like, "Jill, bro, Jill."
Uh, but I think that's awesome. I mean, yeah, he is who he is. Uh, just from a a thrower standpoint when the ball leaves his hand. It reminded me a lot of Sam Bradford from back in the day.
Um, and
that's awesome. I mean, Sam Bradford could rip the rock. I'll be very intrigued to see, we might even see it, you know, in preseason action or through three weeks of how much of his movement and athleticism really does translate and that would kind of change the the comparison label on top of it. But
yeah,
he's a fun one. This is a really cool offense to watch, too, because they they did such a great job of creating spacing and we're just going to throw it down the field. And you know, Clint Kubak loves seeing that because the dude just wants to take shots and rip explosive
plays. Yep. It's exciting times for the Raiders. They I think they finally have their guy.
That does it. Again, if you want more of these prospect profiles, we're going to dive into tight ends and wide receivers and running backs.