Transcription
What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. Omron, one of the harshest truths in fantasy football is that only one person will win your league. In a 12-man league, that gives you an 8.3% chance of winning at all. So, you need to be shooting for upside. And one of the best ways to increase your implied win rate of 8.3% is hitting on the RB1 overall in fantasy.
If we look over the last 5 years, it takes your expected win rate from 8.3% up to 15% to 24%, almost doubling or tripling your expected win rate when you draft one of these RB1 overall seasons, right? Saquon Barkley last year, Christian McCaffrey before that. And that's what we're going to set out to do today. We are going to look through all of the top candidates and pick out five running backs I believe have legendary league-breaking upside in 2025 fantasy football.
As always, if you enjoy, leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and let's talk about the idea of upside at running back and the whole idea of the legendary running back theory. This has been made by Pat Karine back in 2021. We've referenced it every year since then. It is one of the best articles in fantasy football and it still holds true. The idea is that if you're going to draft a running back early, he needs to have legendary RB1 overall type upside.
And here is the reason why. When you draft running backs early, they have a higher bust rate. Over the last 5 years since 2020, when we look at players with an under 10% advance rate on underdog, your implied advance rate is two out of 12. That's like a 16%ish chance to advance. Anything under 10% is sinking your team. That is going to be guys like uh I believe that was Tyreek Hill last year. I think Bree Hall fell in that category. I think Christian McCaffrey fell in that category as well as just guys sinking your teams either from injury or just underperforming.
And we can see here in those first two rounds since 2020, so over the last 5 years, running backs are busting at a 26.8% clip to a wide receiver's 15.2% clip. And you can see as well when we look at the anatomy of a league winner article by Ryan Heath that we are just better at drafting wide receivers. And that's why wide receivers bust at a lower rate. We have better data in terms of yards per out run and targets per out run. And it's better to kind of gauge which of these players is good. You're less dependent with a wide receiver on the quality of team they're on. Running backs, you need a lot of those outside factors, right? With Saquon Barkley last year, he wasn't that good with the Giants. He goes to the Eagles, gets an offensive line upgrade. He's finally on a good offense and all of a sudden he completely goes crazy.
Now the reason we used rounds one and two is because over the last five years when we look at running backs who finished RB1 overall we have Saquon, McCaffrey, Eckler, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara and by their ADP they all were drafted in rounds one and two with really four out of the five getting drafted inside of the top 12 picks in redraft. So that's why we are so focused on those first two rounds in terms of bust rates because you are sort of trying to find not a needle in a haystack, but you are really playing Russian roulette of higher bust rates, but if you want the RB1 overall, you're going to have to take him in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft.
Now, let's break down what a legendary running back season has looked like in the past and kind of set the parameters for what we're looking for. Right? The whole idea of this video is to take seasons like these last five, see what factors mattered, and then see who are the best candidates this season to finish as the RB1 overall. And our first parameter, as you can see from the last five RB1 overall seasons is 21.9 points per game. We could round it up to like 22 plus, but I just wanted to right that has been the threshold. 21.9 points per game or more has given you an RB1 overall finish over the last five seasons.
And so what we did is I expanded to 2010 and we looked at the 23 running back seasons since 2010 because that's 2010 is the latest I can find ADP data for. We can go back to paid leagues and kind of see who's getting drafted where. 23 running back seasons. It's a decent sample size and all of these running backs hit 21.9 points per game or higher. Now I tested as much criteria as I could, right? We looked at volume. We looked at efficiency. We looked at team environment. We looked at uh quarterback rushing last year.
And really what I will say is I am anticipating people coming to this video and saying, "Oh, well, you whiffed on Saquon Barkley. He was the RB1 overall last year. Why should we listen to you again?" And that's fair critique, but I am trying to learn from that. And I think last year, one of our biggest issues is that we were focusing too much on the player talent, right? Where we were looking at oh guys like Achan who I love Achan, but his efficiency struggled after a really strong efficiency in his rookie year because Tua got hurt and the offense cratered. So we have to kind of understand a lot of running back success as I said earlier with Saquon is dependent on the environment and I think also looking at things like did the running back change teams, did the quarterback rush more is kind of not accounting for what this new era is right, right, where running backs are changing hands more often, where quarterbacks are rushing more often. So, we kind of did away with all of that. We did away with past efficiency and we kept it to these variables.
We have on this chart. It's a pretty loaded table here. But you have the player info, right? So, this is all 23 of those 21.9 point per game seasons, the season they did it in, the team they were on, the age that they were in that given season, their points per game that year, the amount of games they played. The minimum I set was minimum 12 games. Their positional ADP that year, so where were they drafted? Were they the RB6? Were they the RB1, the RB3 off the board? We used to do rounds, but remember we talked in the draft strategy video last week. Running backs are getting drafted as late as ever. So, I'd rather lock in on positional ADP versus, oh, this guy was a first round pick or a second round pick because a second round running back pick in 2010 is probably a guy going at the 3-4 turn in 2025. Just that's just kind of how the market has adjusted.
And then we have their last three years best point per game season. So just over their previous three years, what was their best point per game season? Then we have volume, weighted opportunities per game is your carries plus your targets where targets are weighted as better than carries. Targets per game, your receiving upside. And then again that team environment rank. We have their team points for. So how good was the offense and then the PFF offensive line ranking. Now it's a little bit tough going back to 2010. Some of these are PFF's preseason rankings. Some of them are PFF's postseason rankings, but all of them gauge how good the offensive line was for this player in that given year.
And what that gives us is the components of a legendary running back season here where the criteria we looked for and that a lot of these guys hit was you got to be 27 years or older or younger, my bad. You got to be 27 years or younger. We want youth. 100% of the legendary running backs on that list were 27 years or younger. Now, we also want this running back in their previous three years to have a season of 16 or better points per game, unless if you are a rookie, right? Because then you don't have any previous seasons or unless if you are a year two player because if you're a rookie and you don't hit 16 plus points per game, it's not a must. It's your rookie year. Sometimes these guys start slow, whatever.
Then we also have 95.7% of these running backs were drafted inside of the top 12 running backs by ADP. The only running back who wasn't, I believe, was Aryen Foster in 2010, who was this undrafted free agent guy, looked decent in year one, and then was just a monster in year two and three. Uh 91.3% of these running backs were in top 16 scoring offenses. 87% of them had 18 plus weighted opportunities per game. 82.6% of them had five plus targets per game. 82.6% of them had a top 20 PFF offensive line.
So now we have the criteria of what an RB1 overall season looks like. And what we did is we applied this to the top 12 running backs in ADP for 2025. Now this is a loaded screenshot. We'll zoom in for a second here so you can see uh a little bit better. We have the criteria. We have each player as well where of course we know their age. We know what they did over their last three seasons in points per game. We know their positional ADP. Top 16 scoring offense. I used Vegas scoring projections to give us a number. Then we have the weighted opportunities per game. I used Mike Clay's projections for volume. Same with targets per game. And then top 20 PFF offensive line. PFF has already released their offensive line rankings.
And what that gives us is a simple total and a weighted total. Simple total is just very simply I give you a green if you hit the benchmark. I give you a yellow if you come super close. Right? So Bijon is on the 22nd best scoring offense by Vegas. That's within the range of top 16, right? Like middle of the pack by Vegas projection. So I give him a yellow. Same thing with 17.7 weighted opportunities per game. That's right there just behind 18 plus. So we give him a yellow. Same with five plus targets per game. And that gives us a simple total of 5.5 where greens give you one and yellows give you .5. Right? So up top 23 is one. He hit 20 plus points per game last year. That's two. RB1 in positional ADP. That's three. Then we have 0.5 for the three projections in scoring offense volume and volume. And then he hits a top 20 PFF offensive line which gives him a 5.5 simple total.
Now the weighted total is a little bit more confusing. Okay. If you get a green for the first category, you get a 10. Then a 10. But now because it says 95.7% for RB1, you get 9.57. Then for yellow with top 16 scoring offense, you get half of 9.13, right? 9.13. It's just a way of weighting them a little bit heavier based on how high the percentage is for the components of a legendary running back season of guys that hit 22 plus points per game. And that gives you this entire list here. I hope you guys can see it decently well. Um, and what I will say is I am not just like blind ranking my running backs by this this year. Like I I wouldn't say that this is now like I'm not fading Saquon Barkley given this data. I'm not fading Derrick Henry. It's just one piece of the pie. Um, but I will say it definitely cools me off of Bree Hall a little bit. Uh, Chase Brown's a little bit tough when you have the 31st offensive line there. Uh, I think JT's okay, but it'd be pretty shocking if he was the RB1 overall this year. Again, same thing with Derrick Henry.
But I will say the further you get back on this list, right, if you're taking Derrick Henry in the mid to late second round of your fantasy draft, you don't need him to finish as the RB1 overall. You would like him to have that ceiling. And it's why I prefer a guy like Bucky Irving in that area. Uh in that area. I don't know I said area, but in that area. Uh so it's just something to think about. Again, it's it's one of many different factors we're looking at, but I think it's a good, you know, exercise here to really view which of these running backs have the best shot at hitting an RB1 overall season.
And now what we're going to do is take the five best scores and outline their case to be the RB1 overall and then also talk about some drawbacks on why maybe that won't happen this season. And the first running back we are going to talk about is Jahmyr Gibbs. And I will say all of these guys who are my top five priority targets that have legendary upside are all highlighted over on the Patreon. patreon.com/ronstewart. The reason why today, August 4th, is our first video of August, which kills me inside, but it's just kind of how it had to happen was because over the weekend, I was grinding out rankings update. Uh, like we went from a half PPR underdog upload sheet to now it's a full PPR tiers. You have my targets, my fades, my ideal round to take every player in, and I have the checklist as well. So, as you're drafting, you can just check it off. And it's something people really enjoyed last year. If you want access to that, that is on patreon.com/ronstewart. And if you keep your subscription going, it'll carry you through the season where you can then get my weekly rankings, my rest of season rankings. You get my waiver wire article every week, all of that good stuff and more. patreon.com/rononstewart.
But let's talk about Jahmyr Gibbs. He's likely going to be the guy in the thumbnail for this video. He is my 102 as my RB1. And to me, he is the best candidate to be the RB1 overall when it's all said and done in 2025. He is the most electric running back in football. He led all running backs with a 10% explosive run rate. And you can see here he hits age. He had 21.4 points per game last year. That is easily within the 16 plus marker territory. He's a top 12 running back in ADP. He's on the third highest implied total scoring offense by Vegas. He is almost at five plus targets per game and his offensive line is top 20. His only miss here is that he's not projected for 18 plus weighted opportunities per game, but nobody on the list is. Is I will say that he didn't even get yellow in this category. So volume is an issue.
Now let's lay out his RB1 case. Again, most electric running back in football, top-end offensive line, good offense, and I think what really unlocks his ceiling is going to be his receiving capability. Now, if you want to say, well, he's a third-year player. I don't care about his prospect profile. Fine. But he's a third-year player who is still growing into what prime Jahmyr Gibbs is going to look like. And if you remember all the way back to 2022 when we were talking about Jahmyr Gibbs dynasty and during the NFL draft cycle, his receiving profile was his biggest selling point, right? You can see here from this tweet back in October 2022, Jahmyr Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey in terms of receiving yardage market share in college. Gibbs went toe-to-toe with him every single year. Remember year two and year three, Jahmyr Gibbs was on Alabama. Now, it wasn't the Alabama of years past, but we're still talking guys like Jameson Williams and guys like uh John Metchie and at least NFL caliber receivers, he was a monster in the receiving game on those teams.
Now, he had back-to-back years with 52 receptions, but a profile like that, when we've seen McCaffrey hit 80 plus receptions before, I truly do believe when we look back on Jahmyr Gibbs' career, at one point he is going to hit 70 plus receptions, 80 plus receptions. It's not a matter of if to me, it's a matter of when. And I'd rather bet on that early than late, right? Because as soon as that receiving upside comes to fruition, we're all of a sudden talking about a 22 plus, 25 plus point per game running back that truly does have that legendary league-winning upside. And I will say we get these reports every offseason. So take this with a grain of salt. But we do have a new offensive coordinator who could kind of split things up a bit differently between him and David Montgomery who could get Gibbs more receptions in the receiving game as well. Where if we look at Adam Levitan's tweet, he says, "Despite his pass-catching skill set, Jahmyr Gibbs saw just 3.7 targets per game in 2024, even with David Montgomery missing three games." And I will say it is very interesting that Mike has him at 4.8 targets per game. So, he's already projecting an increase in the passing game.
Then Levitan says, "We hear the RBs have to play wide receiver nonsense every offseason, so take it with a grain of salt. But here's the athletic observation through a week of camp. Lions working to unlock Jahmyr Gibbs' playmaking potential. I've seen the Lions start Gibbs in the backfield, motion him to the slot. I see him start in the slot and line up at running back. He's run wheel routes, Texas routes, quick outs, slants, and more." Now, again, we have a new OC. We lose offensive lineman like Frank Ragnow, and we get to a spot here where now maybe if the offensive line isn't as good, if the play caller is different, we could get more checkdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs. We could get more designed touches for Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game. And to me, that just opens up a ton of upside for him down the stretch. We've already seen him hit legendary running back upside before where he was at 32.6 points per game in his three-game sample without David Montgomery and still 18.7 points per game with David Montgomery.
And of course, David Montgomery is the drawback, right? When we talk about why he won't finish at the RB1 overall, it is because of David Montgomery, right? He is the elephant in the room. It's a split backfield. You have to remember this team uses their running backs more than any other team in the National Football League. And also, we are getting training camp updates here where Gibbs is usually the first running back on the field with the starters. Past years, you'd often see David Montgomery get the first bulk of carries before Gibbs takes the field. And this could be the true passing of the torch because yes, you can look back and say, "Oh, well, he only had 18.7 points per game with David Montgomery." First, I would say that that's like a fine total. Like, that's if that's the floor, that's not terrible. What I'd also say is to see him go crazy without Montgomery and then change play callers and then go into year three and keep it the exact same split to me would be crazy. I think now we're going to see the widest disparity in touches between the two that we've seen so far through Gibbs' career. And to me that's very exciting especially because we have now seen with Scott Barrett, we have seen a seven-game sample without David Montgomery where Gibbs averages 31.3 points per game.
Now, what I'm not saying is that Montgomery is going to be a zero and that Gibbs is going to average 31.3 points per game. But I think if we can get a manageable split and Gibbs can take it from 31 points per game down to 22, 23, all of a sudden we are cooking with an RB1 overall season despite David Montgomery. I believe it's in reach and again it's why I have him as my 102 this season.
Now, the other player who tied with him for a 51.1 weighted total in terms of a legendary running back upside season is De'Von Achane. And his RB1 case is super easy. He last year already showed it to us. In his 11 games with Tua, he was at 22.55 points per game, which would have beat out Saquon Barkley. So, we've already got an 11-game stretch where he was a legendary running back. Then, we look at how he scores in this exercise. Youth last year, 17.6 points per game, top 12 running back in ADP. He just by the skin of his chinny chin chin hits 16 in terms of top 16 scoring offenses. He misses out on the weighted opportunities per game. He hits five plus targets per game. And then the issue is going to be that offensive line.
Now, the case for Achane is if we can just simply get a marriage of his 2023 efficiency, right? So 7.8 yards per carry, 12.6% and 6% explosive run rate and then also get the volume he got with Tua last year like more like 80% of both, right? He's not going to be again, we look at the splits here, he's not going to be on a 104 reception pace with Tua, but if he can just get to like a 70 plus reception pace, 80 plus reception pace, but then also finds his efficiency that he had in his rookie year, we are easily talking about an RB1 overall upside season for De'Von Achane. Now again, his drawback here is going to be the offensive line. They are ranked 25th by PFF. So I gave him like a yellow, right? Like that's decently close, but on established run, they have them down at 28th. I will say something to definitely note is this first line here. Now, if this was a purely run block ranking, the Dolphins would be higher up the list due to their diverse scheme and the fact that all five starters are better run than pass blockers. So that's a good thing for De'Von Achane, right? That this offensive line is bad, but if they had a specialty, it would be the run game. Uh, but the rest of it's just like it's pretty brutal. They get James Daniels off into torn Achilles. They draft Jonah Savania out of Arizona, I believe. So, they're trying, they're trying here and there is some upside with new pieces. But, it certainly is the main drawback is is can he hit what we want him to hit despite his offensive line. They're already getting banged up here from Josh Norris where uh right tackle Austin Jackson is going to miss weeks in camp with a lower extremity injury. So, that is the downside. It's the offensive line. It's Tua as well, right? If Tua gets a concussion and we deal with the same thing as last year, right? Where in a 10-game sample with Tua, he's the guy. In a six-game sample without him, he is brutal to start in your lineup. Those are the downsides with Achane. But when we look through this exercise purely for upside, uh Achane is one of those guys that has true RB1 overall ceiling that you can get at the one-two turn right now as well.
Then we have Bijon as our third most likely RB1 overall candidate here. His is pretty simple. Like we don't really have to talk too much about it. I think he's the only guy in this list to have green or yellow in every category. We can look rookie year 14.5 points per game, then 20.1 points per game. Would it be crazy to see him just get to 22 plus, right? As he just kind of climbs every year that he's in the National Football League. Uh he also when we look at his prospect profile which again I think is relevant in year three uh in terms of legendary running back prospects in my model. So that's just, you know, truly crazy talents, right? Think Ashton Gentry, Saquon Barkley, Bijon Robinson's on this list of this list. Uh, Saquon, Zeke, Adrian Peterson, Christian McCaffrey, and Todd Gurley all have 22 plus point per game seasons. Uh, and McCaffrey, Zeke, Todd Gurley all did it in their third season in the NFL. It would be very easy to see Bijon do it.
Now, in terms of the criteria we're looking at, he hits youth, 20 plus points per game last year. He's the RB1 overall by ADP right now. Just misses out on the top 16 scoring offense, just misses out on weighted opportunities, just misses out on targets per game, and he has a good offensive line. And it's also worth noting that Allgeier made this a really brutal split early on in the year, but after week six when Allgeier out touched Bijon, they completely like I don't know what switched, they completely bought into Bijon. And from week seven on, he was at 22.6 points per game. Already hitting the threshold that we're looking for.
Now, again, when we look at the drawbacks and why he has 50.9 and he's third on this list is really just the offensive environment. We look at Vegas projections right now. We want a top 16 scoring offense. Right now, Atlanta's at 22. He had 15 touchdowns on 13 expected touchdowns last year. So, he already kind of got lucky in terms of touchdowns and still capped out around 20 points per game. Anyways, it'd be tough to see him do better than 15 touchdowns next year with this offense with Michael Penix Jr. giving you some pretty massive downside where if Michael Penix Jr. isn't the guy, then all of a sudden you have a workhorse running back who's going to be good, but maybe not RB1 overall good because the offense is held back by the quarterback. But on the flip side, Penix Jr. also offers a lot of upside. What if Penix Jr. is really good and he's one of the breakout players of 2025 and all of a sudden Bijon is hitting all of our thresholds that we're looking for and then you get scoring offense from 22 instead to like 12, and then he easily, easily hits it.
Now our fourth running back here on this list is Christian McCaffrey. Uh, and this one is just very simple. It's crazy. Since getting drafted in 2017, despite leaving some games early, despite being banged up in a lot of these games, he averages 22 plus points per game already in his 95 active career games, which is nuts. Again, we're looking for 22 plus points per game. McCaffrey over his entire career when he's on the field already averages 22 plus points per game. And in the four seasons that he's played 10 or more games since his rookie year, he has averaged 24.1, 29.3, 21, and 24.5 points per game. A three out of four hit rate in your healthy seasons of hitting an RB1 overall type season is absolutely nuts.
Now, the drawbacks are very simple, right? We look at the criteria here. He hits everything. Offensive line, targets, just misses 18 plus weighted opportunities per game. Seventh best scoring offense by Vegas, RB4 in ADP. He hit 24.5 points per game as recently as 2023. But then it's the age. He's 29 years old. He would be by far the oldest running back since 2010 to hit 22 plus points per game. But he's also McCaffrey. But he also, when we talk about drawbacks here, McCaffrey's injury history, uh, it's a long one since 2020, man. Last year, Achilles tendonitis, sprain PCL before that, calf strain, oblique strain, thigh strain, ankle sprain, hamstring strain, thigh injury, AC joint, high ankle.
But now what I will say is he gets a lot of bumps and bruises. And this is how it's been over his entire career where he's played seven games or less in three of his last five seasons. The only encouraging part is that like none of these are Achilles tear, ACL tear, uh, you know, snapping of the fibula or something. None of these are catastrophic. They're just a lot of bumps and bruises. So that tells me he should hold up a little bit better. But I will say like the true screenshot for McCaffrey is this list. This is your best seasons since the inception of football of age 29 running backs or older. Now, only three running backs ever have been 29 or older and hit 22 plus points per game. It is Priest Holmes, Jim Brown, Tiki Barber. It's a weird list. This is what you're sort of wrestling with, right? Where if it's only been three dudes ever, you have Barry Sanders coming just shy, but 21.8 will do it. Uh, you have Matt Forte in this mix, you have Marshall Faulk a couple times. There is definitely precedent for it, but you have to understand is that if the calculus is him playing seven games or less, which he's done in three of his last five seasons, right? So that's his bust potential. And if his true upside, if you don't believe it's RB1 overall, 24 plus points per game anymore, and you think it's really just more of like that, you look here like Marshall Faulk in 2002, right? If he hit that 20.2 and two points per game. If that's your best-case scenario, that all of a sudden changes things because I want to have as much upside to kind of offset the downside of Christian McCaffrey. So that's what you have to kind of decide for yourself. I believe just based on McCaffrey's track record, I still do believe that he could join that list of Jim Brown, Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, and hit 22 plus points per game. But if you're on the more conservative side and you're like, I don't think so. So, I think his upside's really just more 20 plus, which is more less RB1 overall upside and it's more like top three overall upside. Maybe you want to put guys like Lukanua ahead of him and Malik Neighbors and kind of push him down. But for now, for me, I have him as my 107 at this current point and somebody I'm mixing in when he gets to me in the back half of the first round.
Now, our last RB1 overall candidate and to me, this is the biggest long shot of the list, Bucky Irving. He's very interesting. It's pretty simple. He is a good player on a good team, right? We look at him. He's 23 years old. He's in his second year, right? So, he's one of these guys where he didn't hit 16 plus points per game in his previous three seasons, but he only has a one-season sample size to go off of. He's a top 12 running back by ADP. He's on the eighth best scoring offense by Vegas with a sixth best offensive line by PFF. His downside is volume.
Now, when we look at his RB1 case after week 11 last year, right, he had his bye week in week 11. From week 12 on, he was the RB6 with 18.3 points per game. He was fifth in yards per carry last year, seventh in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, uh fourth in yards after contact per attempt, top 10 in receptions at running back. So, you get a guy who is super efficient. He's already shown a stretch of games where he had upside and then he also has receiving upside. And then again, he's on a top 10 offense with a top 10 offensive line. So, all of that is beautiful.
Now, of course, Tristan Wirfs is going to miss the early part of the season. I'm not super worried about that. We're drafting players for what they can do for you down the stretch in the money-making weeks. Maybe Bucky Irving starts off a little bit slower, but I don't think it's going to be the end of the world uh for him in terms of fantasy. Maybe it goes from, you know, 20 plus points per game to like 17 plus for the first few weeks. That's fine by me. Um, and then again, he is super young. So that's why we don't care that he didn't hit 16 plus points per game last year. And he is heading into his second year where when we look at the entirety of those 23 22 plus point per game seasons since 2010. We see six of them came by a running back in their second season, only behind fourth-year running backs.
Now, side note, I will say the running back draft class that are heading into year four is uh Kyren, James Cook, Bree Hall, Kenneth Walker, that class. So, I don't think any of them have 22 plus point per game upside, but it seems like a ripe age or area to draft those running backs. So, all those guys you can give a little bit of a boost to. But in terms of the drawbacks for Bucky Irving, it is going to be volume. It's very similar to a Jahmyr Gibbs where he was the RB6 in points per game last year from week 12 on, but over that stretch was only 28th among running backs with a 50% snap share and was 17th in expected points per game, which was his volume. So, he still wasn't an RB1 in terms of volume. He was just an RB1 in terms of production, which is great, right? We don't want to discount his efficiency. He's a very good player, but his volume is the biggest drawback. Uh, Rashad White over that stretch was 32nd in snap share at 47.8%. So again, over that stretch, Bucky was RB28. Rashad White was RB32 in snap share. He's also a guy who was top 10 in pass block grade and had 50 plus catches last year. So Rashad White could very much be very annoying on those third down situations and those passing down two-minute drill type situations, and that could keep Bucky Irving off the field and keep his volume lower than we need for 22 plus points per game.
And then another drawback is just the running back history of day three picks and undrafted free agents. Of those 23 seasons we talked about, the only UDFAs and day three players to hit 22 plus points per game I believe was Austin Ekeler and Aryen Foster. So, really short list and I've seen guys in the past, right, we can go all the way down the list of Dameon Pierce, James Robinson, uh Elijah Mitchell, Alfred Morris, Jordan Howard, uh of guys who pop early and then don't really have staying power. Bucky Irving has some of that downside. But I also think that he is just a better player uh than a lot of those running backs.
But that is going to do it for us today. That is our entire research and honestly our overall philosophy for this year is that when we're drafting and targeting running backs early, we want that RB1 overall upside. Again, it doesn't mean that I'm completely fading the other running backs. I still have Saquon Barkley as like my 105. He's not a fade for me. Somebody I'm still fine drafting, but I do prefer a guy like Gibbs and a guy like Bijon over Saquon at this point in the year. And this is, like I said, kind of our north star through drafts at this point. We're going to be targeting Gibbs. We're going to be targeting Bijon. We're going to be targeting McCaffrey when we can. We're going to be targeting uh Achane. We're going to be targeting Bucky Irving. All of these guys in our drafts based on the research we just did.
You guys usually love this video, so make sure you give it a like. Comment if you disagree. If there's a running back that I missed, you're like, "No, he has RB1 overall upside." And then of course, if you want access to the rankings that are prioritizing these players and kind of taking these heuristics with us into these drafts, right? Where if we're going to draft a running back early, let's make sure he has league-winning upside. Let's make sure we are optimizing our flex positions, playing the draft room, and going for certain target rounds for these players, right? Like I might have Travis Hunter at 47th, but I have his target round is sixth round because I know in home leagues you're going to be able to get him in the sixth round. So, if you want pretty much my entire blueprint to drafting right now, you can find that on the Patreon. patreon.com/ronstewart. You get my rankings, underdog upload, weekly rankings, rest of season rankings, you get my uh you get access to subscriber leagues if you'd like to, and then also my waiver wire article once a week.
But if you don't want to support there, just leave a like, subscribe if you're new, and I will see you guys tonight. I will say I I got to start referencing this in the videos. I'm streaming every night or every day really from now through week one kickoff. So come hang out with us. We're doing underdog drafts. We're doing high stakes streams. Like last night we drafted a high stakes $350 team. It's a lot of fun. Make sure you come check them out. But I will see you guys in the next one. [Music] Stones like this froze ice cold ice.